This proposed deduction would be in addition to the standard deduction, which most taxpayers currently claim.

The proposal comes on the heels of a massive 2025 Trump/GOP tax and spending bill that offers taxpayers several new deductions for car loan interest, overtime pay and tip income.

However, Hawley's proposal, which would have to clear significant political hurdles to advance in Congress, wouldn’t replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits.

Those credits, which help millions of Americans afford health care premiums, have been at the heart of debate on Capitol Hill since the government shutdown.

Will there be significant changes to health care tax breaks in 2026?

No taxes on health care?

In a release about the bill, Hawley points out that “nearly 41 percent of adults in the United States have some form of debt stemming from medical expenses. In the last year alone, a recent Gallup report found that 31 million Americans borrowed money to pay for health care.”

To address that, Hawley’s bill would expand the existing medical expense deduction, which currently is available only to taxpayers who itemize and only for expenses above 7.5% of adjusted gross income.

His plan would move that deduction “above the line,” so that any taxpayer could claim up to $25,000 per person in out‑of‑pocket medical spending, including premiums they pay directly for coverage.​

The proposal, announced in early December, is framed as “no taxes on healthcare,” echoing recent GOP slogans such as “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime.”

What about ACA tax credits?

ACA premium tax credits lower marketplace premiums up front based on income and plan cost, and enhanced subsidies created by pandemic‑era legislation are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress acts.

• Hawley’s bill doesn’t extend those ACA subsidies and doesn’t create a new ACA‑style credit.
• Instead, his proposal offers a separate federal tax deduction that would come into play at filing time, not at the time you purchase a health care plan.​

Because deductions reduce taxable income rather than premiums directly, they generally deliver less relief than a dollar‑for‑dollar subsidy, particularly for lower‑income households with little tax liability.

If enhanced ACA credits lapse, many marketplace enrollees could see substantial premium increases in 2026, regardless of Hawley’s idea. Nonitemizers would still likely be left weighing higher monthly bills against a possible year‑end tax break

Who might benefit?

Generally speaking, an above‑the‑line health deduction would skew toward taxpayers with enough income and out‑of‑pocket costs to fully use it. Think middle‑ and upper‑middle‑income households buying their own coverage without employer help.

Lower‑income consumers who currently rely on ACA subsidies, Medicaid, or employer plans with modest worker premiums might see little or no direct gain from a health care tax deduction such as Hawley’s. That's because they often don't pay enough income tax to fully benefit from a large deduction.

And ... a tax deduction wouldn't prevent coverage loss for people who can't afford the higher gross premiums that will come if enhanced ACA credits expire.​

Health care premiums: Bottom line

Key mechanics of the Hawley plan remain vague, including a major fiscal issue: How the government would offset the revenue loss from such a significant, broadly available health care tax deduction.

For now, the long and short of it is that Hawley’s bill is just a proposal.

Senate Democrats, meanwhile, continue to push for an extension of ACA subsidies rather than a deduction‑based alternative.

The health care tax debate rages on.

Read More

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• ACA Tax Credits and the Government Shutdown
• Most Overlooked Tax Deductions and Credits
• Premium Tax Credit: Are You Eligible?

Online searches for “stimulus checks” are climbing, and speculation about government payments has intensified after President Donald Trump revived one of his attention-grabbing ideas: sending some U.S. taxpayers $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks.

Trump claims his tariffs on imported goods have generated enough money to fund the plan and to pay down some of the deficit. However, since tariffs are taxes, U.S. consumers are bearing much of the burden of the administration's trade policy, and some fiscal experts say the "dividend" numbers don’t add up.

So, the question is: Will you receive a $2,000 payment soon? Here’s what you need to know.

Related: Costco Sues Trump Administration Over Tariffs: What to Know

Are Trump 'tariff dividend checks' really on the way?

Trump recently revived his proposal to provide a $2,000 payment to some U.S. taxpayers. He’s framing it as a fair share of the revenues generated by sweeping tariffs he’s implemented on imported goods since the start of his second term as president.

In a recent post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote the following:

“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Trump suggests the new plan for 2026 stimulus payments is a patriotic payback to working families, who are shouldering higher costs. However, you might recall that this message echoes previous flirtations.

For instance, not long ago, the Trump administration talked about “DOGE dividends” — payments tied to Elon Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency cuts. Those “savings” never materialized into payments to taxpayers.

And Trump’s call for tariff dividends raises other questions. Who will be considered “high earners”? When and how will the money be sent?

In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to temper expectations.

On ABC’s This Week, Bessent said the administration is exploring whether the “dividend” would come in the form of direct payments, temporary tax relief, or another form, like tax cuts in the recently enacted 2025 Trump tax bill.

“The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans.”

*Note: The 2025 Trump/GOP tax bill does not end taxes on Social Security benefits. For more information, see Social Security Tax Cuts Missing From Trump Tax Bill.

• On Fox News, Bessent noted that Congress must approve any such payout and that no final design has been established yet.
• The Treasury Secretary also floated an income limit — possibly excluding households earning over $100,000 — but stressed those details remain under discussion.
• More recently, Bessent acknowledged a trade-off between using tariff revenue for checks versus paying down the federal debt.

Tariff stimulus: Is there enough tariff revenue to go around?

The fiscal realities and trade-offs are key, as several budgetary experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of Trump’s proposal.

John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, told reporters, “It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate.”

That’s based on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs may bring in $200 billion to $300 billion annually. (That amount reportedly constitutes less than 4% of total federal revenue.)

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that issuing a one-time $2,000 payment to every American, including children, would cost approximately $600 billion — roughly triple the current annual tariff revenue.

And even if the checks were limited to those making $100,000 or less, Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, points out that this would mean checks going to an estimated 150 million Americans at a minimum cost of $300 billion.

Takeaway? Tariff revenue has grown, but not nearly enough to fund dividend checks of this scale without dramatically increasing the federal deficit.

• Despite tariff growth, the federal deficit in fiscal 2025 still reached nearly $1.8 trillion, according to data from the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
• The International Monetary Fund warns that while tariffs can temporarily curb deficits, they often distort trade and raise consumer prices.
• The Tax Foundation notes that as tariffs rise, imports tend to fall. That can potentially undercut the revenue source Trump claims to want to redistribute.

Trump tariffs Supreme Court ruling

Then there’s also the looming question of the legal sustainability of Trump’s tariff policies.

As Kiplinger has reported, the U.S. Supreme Court is currently considering challenges to Trump's tariffs, examining the broad application of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which underpins many of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

If the court invalidates many of the tariffs, the ruling could significantly affect the availability of funds for the proposed tariff dividends and possibly necessitate tariff refunds. (During oral arguments in the tariff case, Justice Amy Coney Barrett pondered the potential administrative “mess” involved in ordering massive tariff refunds for affected importers.)

Then, here’s the legislative hurdle surrounding tariff dividends. As Besent acknowledged, Congress would have to pass legislation to authorize the payments.

Earlier this year, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced a bill that would mandate annual “tariff rebates” for lower- and middle-income families, funded by duties on Chinese imports.

Hawley’s version, which hasn’t moved in Congress, would stop short of setting a flat $2,000 figure. If approved, the bill would reportedly provide at least $600 per adult and dependent child, meaning a family of four could receive a minimum of $2,400 in rebates.

• The $600 would be a guaranteed minimum per eligible person.
• But if tariff revenues exceed projections, payments could increase proportionally.

Meanwhile, even some Trump allies acknowledge the need for congressional approval for any such payments, meaning that any rollout of Trump dividends will face political and procedural headwinds.

Investor and Shark Tank personality, Kevin O'Leary, recently warned that sending out checks funded by tariffs is just a “quick band‑aid” that risks acting as a “silent tax” by stoking inflation.

On X (formerly Twitter). O’Leary posted: “Everyone loves the idea of a free check, especially in a tough economy. But here’s the truth, and it’s not always popular. Sending out $2000 checks funded by tariffs might feel good in the moment, but it does nothing to fix the core problem.”

He later told reporters that any new tariff revenue should be used to pay down the national debt and shore up long‑term economic stability.

Also, worth noting: After the longest US government shutdown in history, Congress is already battling over ACA tax credit subsidies and government funding levels.

Trump giving $2,000 checks: Bottom line

The idea of a Trump $2,000 “tariff dividend” might understandably resonate with many households. But fiscal realities remain shaky, the legal situation is uncertain, and congressional cooperation is far from guaranteed.

Budget Pressure: The plan could significantly deepen the deficit unless the payouts are sharply limited.

Revenue Volatility: Tariff revenue tends to fluctuate, particularly when imports decline or trade partners retaliate.

Debt Trade-Off: Using tariff proceeds for checks would divert funds from federal debt reduction.

Legislative Hurdles: Congressional approval will be required for direct federal payments.

Legal Risks: Ongoing court challenges could narrow Trump’s tariff authority and erode the revenue base.

So, for now, the “tariff dividend” looks more like another idea than a budget-ready program that taxpayers can look forward to. Focus on practical financial steps for now, including taking advantage of existing tax breaks and legitimate employment and income opportunities.

But, as always, stay tuned. Some states are sending various forms of rebates and relief payments this year.

This story has been updated to include information about Trump allies' views of the proposed dividend checks.

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Answer: The government shutdown has now dragged on for almost a full month, and many federal workers are missing their first full paycheck this week. Between a missed paycheck and monthly bills rapidly coming due, this is an understandably stressful time – especially for those who don't have much buffer to get by until the government reopens.

But there's no need to panic, even if you've already cut back on discretionary spending and are making a dollar stretch at the grocery store. With some creativity and flexibility, there are plenty of options available to help bridge the gap until you start getting paid again.

Whether you're still working without pay or you've been furloughed, here's what the experts recommend doing to keep the lights on and food in your pantry.

Check community and state assistance programs – including unemployment

In times like these, getting help is better than going deeper into debt or letting overdue bills pile up.

Some states have expanded their eligibility criteria in light of the ongoing shutdown, so you might qualify for unemployment. These benefits may not kick in right away, but if your state offers a program, get the ball rolling on that application now.

You can also find help closer to home.

"Look into community assistance programs, which can often help provide a financial buffer," advised Leslie H. Tayne, finance and debt expert and founder of Tayne Law Group. Search online for nearby food banks where you can get groceries, as well as other local charities that might be able to provide help with essentials.

Tayne added, "Reaching out to family and friends who could help you financially can be an option worth exploring."

Asking for help is nothing to be embarrassed about. But, if you're feeling self-conscious about relying on family or assistance programs, commit to volunteering at your local food bank or donating to the charities that kept you afloat when your paychecks do kick back in. Remember that getting the help you need right now is the first step to getting yourself into a position where you can pay it forward later.

Defer your mortgage, rent or other big bills

If you know you won't have the cash to cover bigger bills like mortgage or rent after cutting out all the nonessentials from your budget, don't wait for those bills to come due. Call now to ask about deferral or forbearance options.

You can even call up your utilities to see what hardship assistance programs they might offer. You may be able to defer payments or negotiate a lower-cost payment plan before you miss a bill.

A lot of lenders, service providers and other companies have hardship programs available precisely for situations like this. Make a list of all your bills and other monthly payments. Then work your way down the list, calling each one. You'll likely need to give details about your financial situation. It's also a good idea to follow up with an email to make sure you have a paper trail confirming any arrangements you were able to make.

This tactic should be used after making what cuts you can elsewhere, though. Deferred payments can often mean paying more in the long run as interest continues accruing during the deferral period. That will get tacked onto your balance.

Still, if you don't have savings and you're choosing between paying your mortgage or putting food on the table, deferring your mortgage is worth it. Just keep that extra interest in mind and don't use this tool any longer than you have to.

Get a credit card with a 0% introductory rate to cover essentials

While you can defer some expenses and cut out others entirely, things like gas and groceries are trickier. One option to consider is signing up for a credit card with a 0% introductory rate (and no annual fee).

This will buy you around 12 to 18 months of interest-free credit that you can use to feed your family and fill up your tank.

Just make sure you only use this card for absolute necessities and don't spend more than you would in a normal month. You need to make sure you'll be able to pay off the balance in full before the introductory rate expires. Otherwise, you could end up paying 20% or more in interest on that balance.

Get a temporary side job to bring in some cash

If you need to find a way to get cash flow coming in without your usual paycheck, gig work is a flexible option. Platforms like Uber, DoorDash or Instacart are good places to start.

It's easy to sign up and you'll have the flexibility to work around your regular job if you need to. Side gigs like these probably won't be able to replace your full income. But, you can log enough hours on these platforms to fill the gaps in your savings or help you avoid more costly measures like deferring your mortgage and other debt payments.

Temporarily drop your car insurance to minimum coverage

If your insurer makes it easy to adjust your coverage, you can temporarily drop your car insurance to minimum coverage. This usually means giving up collision and comprehensive coverage, which leaves you on the hook for damages in an at-fault accident. So, it's not a risk to take lightly.

But, in a pinch, it can shave about $1,800 per year (or $150 per month) without resorting to giving up your car entirely. That cash can be redirected to help with groceries or utility bills while you're waiting on your paycheck.

You can get through this

Financial stress is one of the toughest kinds of stress to deal with, especially in a situation like this where there's no end in sight and so much feels out of your control. You might need to make some temporary sacrifices in your lifestyle or ask for help when you're used to being self-reliant and independent.

But there is a way through, and this will end eventually, even if we're not sure exactly when. This is a crisis we're facing together as a nation, and people are willing to help — just as you help serve the nation.

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As the government shutdown drags on, there’s no clear end in sight, as both parties continue to dig in their heels and talk past each other. As things stand now, the federal funding freeze could go on for a few more weeks, possibly into November.

Not all federal services have stopped, for now. Many agencies are open with skeleton crews. But services that are available now are at risk, as agencies exhaust their reserve funds. This possibility will become more likely as the Trump administration increases the number of furloughed federal employees. Many basic services remain operational.

Airports are open, as air traffic control and security workers are “essential” and must report to work, but without full pay. However, these workers are increasingly calling in sick, causing flight delays and long lines at security. Expect this to get worse. Flight cancellations are also possible in the future.

Passport processing continues, but wait times for new and renewed documents may grow longer. Some individual passport offices may be closed.

Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits will continue. However, expect delays in some services. SNAP and WIC, the low-income food aid programs, are still operating, though with reserve money dwindling, it’s uncertain for how long. If the shutdown lingers, the White House says it will use tariff revenue to fund WIC.

The National Park Service says its sites will be “as accessible as possible,” including park roads, lookouts, trails and open-air memorials. But some park sites may be closed, and services at those that are open may be limited or unavailable.

The U.S. Postal Service is still delivering mail and post offices remain open throughout the shutdown, as the service doesn’t depend on Congress for funding.

Amtrak isn’t immediately affected and trains are running as scheduled, though a prolonged shutdown could have a long-term impact on the rail service.

The Internal Revenue Service remains open, though with limited service. Tax obligations still apply, and the IRS hasn’t announced any deadline extensions. Student loan bills must be paid, and federal student financial aid will be distributed.

Agriculture Department food safety inspectors will remain on the job.

The Department of Veterans Affairs isn’t being hit as hard as many other agencies. Benefits checks will continue to be processed and delivered, and VA medical centers and outpatient clinics will remain open. But VA benefits regional offices are closed.

As the shutdown continues, federal services will increasingly be affected. Information isn’t easy to come by. Agencies have mostly stopped updating websites and social media accounts. Meanwhile, phone centers often aren’t being staffed. For questions, your congressional representative’s office may be the best bet.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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The banking industry is pushing for a legislative fix to the GENIUS Act, a law that established the first federal framework for stablecoins, a form of digital token that represents a fixed amount of a fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar. While the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying interest to holders, firms including Coinbase and Circle have circumvented this restriction by offering “rewards” programs. In these arrangements, customers lend their stablecoins to a cryptocurrency platform, which then generates yield for the customers. Banks argue this is functionally identical to interest, and are asking Congress to close what they call a dangerous regulatory loophole by explicitly banning firms from offering such rewards to customers.

Banks say these interest-bearing stablecoins pose a serious risk to the economy. They argue that, unlike bank deposits, which are protected by FDIC insurance, stablecoin holdings have no such government backstop, exposing consumers to greater risk. Banks also argue that a significant shift of funds away from traditional, insured deposits, which are the primary source of funding for bank lending, could reduce the availability of everything from home mortgages to small-business loans, slowing the broader economy. The Treasury Department has amplified this concern, estimating potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion if stablecoins are permitted to offer competitive yields. The crypto industry counters that this is fearmongering by the banking industry, claiming that allowing rewards simply introduces much-needed competition that will pressure banks to provide more competitive interest rates to customers who have earned little on their savings for over a decade.

At least for now, Congress is siding with the cryptocurrency industry. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle seem reluctant to pass a narrow fix for the GENIUS Act, fearing it could stifle innovation in a fast-growing sector. Some key Senate Banking Committee members have signaled they’re open to addressing the issue but prefer to do so within a more comprehensive crypto bill, such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Such a bill would establish rules for market structure, consumer protection and the roles of various regulators. Proponents of the comprehensive approach argue that a holistic framework is necessary to provide long-term clarity for the industry, rather than engaging in a legislative game of "whack-a-mole" with every new product. They believe that narrowly targeting rewards could stifle innovation and push digital asset companies offshore, undermining U.S. leadership in financial technology.

For now, the outcome of this fight is hard to predict, given that both sides are intensely lobbying lawmakers. The stakes are high for both sides, as banks aim to maintain their traditional role in taking deposits from customers and making loans to households and businesses, while stablecoin issuers seek to gain a foothold in the financial sector.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Among the losers that day, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, were leisure-travel companies Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) and Carnival Corp. (CCL), which each fell about 5%. Other travel and leisure companies that fell at least 3% that day included United Airlines (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL); Caesars Entertainment (CZR), MGM Resorts (MGM), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN); Expedia Group (EXPE); and Marriott International (MAR). Several energy and agricultural companies and defense contractors gained at least 2% that day.

Any unrest in the Middle East can have a major impact on the global economy if oil production gets disrupted. Oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 caused recessions and bear or near-bear markets.

But this past June, the market rebounded quickly as investors saw Iran’s retaliatory measure of limited strikes on a U.S. military base as a moderate response.

Seven of the 10 travel and leisure companies noted above gained at least 7% from June 13 to the end of the month. Norwegian and Carnival went up 14% and 26%, respectively. Many of the energy, agriculture and defense companies gave back all their gains, plus more. Halliburton (HAL) rose 6% on June 13, then fell 12% by June 30.

The lesson for investors: Markets typically recover from a geopolitical event quickly.

“It ends up being much more of a headline event than a bottom-line event,” says market historian Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at market research firm CFRA. Stovall has studied nearly a century of shocks and found that seven out of 10 times, the stock market is up — sometimes meaningfully so — three months after the event.

Take, for example, the Boston Marathon bombing in April 2013. That day, the S&P 500 fell 2.3%. Ninety calendar days later, the S&P index was up 5.7%.

Stovall’s list contains 25 events dating back to Pearl Harbor. In 11 cases, the markets were up 30 days later. In 16 cases, they were up 60 days later. And in 18 cases — or 72% of the time — they were up 90 days later.

Long-term buying opportunities

Some events are sufficiently cataclysmic to trigger a recession; Iraq’s August 1990 invasion of Kuwait is one example. (The market fell 1.1% that day, and 90 days later it was down 14.5%.) But, Stovall says, most shock-driven market drops may instead be buying opportunities for the longer-term investor, in terms of the market as a whole or specific stocks or sectors.

Matt Gertken, of BCA Research, who gauges the geopolitical risk of certain scenarios, has moderated his assessment of the situation in the Middle East.

In mid-June, he saw a 60% probability of a major oil shock resulting from the current strife, with a 40% probability of a minor shock. (A minor oil shock is a reduction in oil output that can be solved in short order by other countries increasing their production. Major oil shocks are longer-term problems.) After the muted Iranian response, he reduced the probability of a major shock to 25% and allowed for a 25% chance that there will be no geopolitical impact on oil from the current events.

“As of mid June, I was basically saying there was a 0% chance that oil would be unaffected,” Gertken says.

Stay cautious amid the volatility

The market’s quick recovery and subsequent gains suggest investors are placing even less probability on Middle East risk and oil shocks. Nonetheless, says Gertken, it’s not the time to become complacent.

“Individual investors should recognize that with the market having recovered from Trump’s tariff announcement and rallied in the wake of what appears to be a dodged bullet with the Iran conflict, we’ve had a lot of good news priced in,” he says. “It might be a good time to take some risk off the table because there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious going forward.”

Chris Haverland, a global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the research firm currently prefers quality large-company stocks over small caps, and it prefers developed international markets over emerging economies. Recommended portfolios currently have more commodity exposure — to both energy and precious metals — than is typical.

“It’s obviously unpredictable,” he says. “You can’t really position a portfolio tactically prior to an event. And then you don’t want to be making changes during an event, because typically they’re short-lived — for example, the 12-day Israel–Iran war. So the best defense is to be diversified going into geopolitical events.”

Note: This item first appeared in Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine, a monthly, trustworthy source of advice and guidance. Subscribe to help you make more money and keep more of the money you make here.

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A big shift in economic policy is underway. One that includes more federal involvement in parts of the private sector that were once off-limits. The shift began in Donald Trump’s first term. Now, the president is attempting to cement it.

Among the steps that Trump has taken so far:

Making the government a major shareholder of so-called national champion firms, such as Intel and U.S. Steel, to shore up the manufacturing base. Both companies have lost ground in recent decades, even with extensive efforts to engineer a turnaround. The administration has also floated taking a big stake in major defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin.

Establishing more public-private partnerships in sectors critical to national security.
One example: A multibillion-dollar agreement with MP Materials to create a mine-to-magnet rare earths supply chain.

Imposing and threatening higher tariffs, hoping to strong-arm supply chains back to the U.S. Case in point, biopharma — one of the many industries facing higher duties — has pledged at least $292 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing in the past six months.

Most of the president’s moves have a national security angle.
The decline of the U.S. manufacturing base is one of Trump’s long-running concerns. Moreover, he has so far focused primarily on industries where ongoing competition with China is a concern. Beijing now dominates “traditional” manufacturing industries like steel and is increasingly making advances in high-tech areas, including semiconductors.

His policies are also limited to where the White House has clear leverage, such as extensive federal subsidies (Intel) or a pending merger approval (U.S. Steel). The big question now is how far the administration ultimately plans to go. For now, it’s signaling clear limits in its intentions, focusing mostly on manufacturing. Case in point, federal officials say that they have no plans to take a stake in Nvidia, a chipmaker, which, unlike Intel, outsources all of its manufacturing to other firms.

The risk of a legal backlash grows if Trump pushes further. For example, if the administration begins to regularly require companies to give Uncle Sam shares as a condition of receiving government contracts, as well as permits and licenses, lawsuits are highly likely. The White House could see its strategy blow up sooner than that if the courts nix its current authority to impose across-the-board tariffs.

Also unclear: How effective this strategy will be. Intel will be a key test case. More federal involvement could help the struggling chipmaker land more customers, or it could worsen the company’s long track record of corporate mismanagement.

Trump’s policies are not unprecedented, but their permanence is unusual in modern times. For example, Uncle Sam temporarily took ownership of GM in 2009.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Amid the hype over AI, a practical question: When will the technology boost the economy the way its developers and promoters are promising? Is artificial intelligence going to unleash a surge in worker productivity, as epochal new tech has done in the past? Or is investor enthusiasm for it overdone?

In one sense, AI is already adding to GDP. Spending on AI hardware is astronomical, both for the costly, specialized chips that power AI and the related infrastructure to deliver the electricity that those chips devour. This spending raised GDP by 0.3% in the second quarter of this year. Even that doesn’t fully capture the size of this investment surge, since some capital outlays that tech firms are making don’t show up in the official GDP accounting method. Just look at the top five firms by AI investment: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle. The increase in their AI-related capital expenditures over the past two years equals about 10% of GDP gains in the U.S. over that time period. Add the power plants, transmission lines and other infrastructure they need to run their data centers, and the outlay is even bigger.

There are also signs that businesses are gearing up for AI to make an impact on their operations. Company mentions of AI use for research tripled since Nov. 2022, when ChatGPT launched and turbocharged generative AI. 25% of job listings posted for IT professionals since the start of last year have asked for AI-related skills. The number of mobile AI app downloads hit 60 million this March. Internet searches related to AI have grown tenfold since OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT to the public. When it comes to whether AI will make workers more productive, the picture gets murkier. There are some early signs that it’s happening. Inflation-adjusted revenue per worker among S&P 500 companies has been rising since late 2022, following a 15-year period when it stayed flat.

It’s not clear why, but the overlap with advanced AI applications going mainstream is hard to ignore. But with so much money pouring into AI, there are reasons for skepticism. Much of the investment being made today could end up wasted. Many companies that are in vogue now figure to fail. It’s possible that AI computing power being rushed online could ultimately prove to be unneeded, akin to how fiber-optic cable networks got overbuilt in the 1990s. That capacity eventually got used as data consumption rose, but not before builders who spent too much on it went bankrupt. If the current AI data center boom fizzles, the pullback in spending could spark a mild recession, as the tech bust in 2001 did. Most major technological leaps take time to filter through the economy. AI does seem genuinely transformative. But the transformation may take many years.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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A fractured Congress will reconvene on September 2. A possible government shutdown awaits. Failure to pass federal funding for the new fiscal year, starting October 1, would shutter many agencies. And right now, lawmakers are far from agreement. The odds of a shutdown are less than 50%...For now. That may change.

Lawmakers are aware that shutdowns usually hurt both parties, politically, but they left Washington for summer break in a sour mood, with optimism for a deal waning. Democratic support in the Senate is needed to keep the government open, as 60 votes are required to pass annual appropriations bills.

With the GOP controlling 53 seats, Democrats hold a key bargaining chip. Dems are under pressure to play hardball, as many in their base are still furious at the party for letting Republicans dictate the funding package last spring, which avoided a shutdown at the time. Democratic lawmakers feel they’re between a rock and a hard place. Supporting a Republican funding bill written without Dem input would enrage their base. Opposing such a bill would score political points, but risks triggering a shutdown and possibly getting the blame from voters.

Adding to the fraught mood on Capitol Hill is a GOP rescissions bill passed in July that clawed back $9 billion in funding previously OK’d by Congress, a move that President Trump pushed hard for. With the White House hinting it wants to enact another rescissions bill, Dems fear that any spending deals they broker with their GOP counterparts could be undone later. Privately, many Republicans are also uncomfortable with the concept of rescissions on the grounds that Congress, not the White House, holds the power of the purse. Such bills are historically rare.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Trump will play the key roles in heading off a shutdown. They reportedly have not spoken directly in months, and the tensions between the long-time New York foes appear to be escalating. A deal is possible if they break the ice, though Trump would get the better of it, as Republicans control Congress and most Hill Republicans are Trump loyalists.

We expect lawmakers to avoid a shutdown, somehow, some way, as the economy would temporarily suffer and Wall Street wouldn’t react kindly if funding runs out and most federal agencies go dark. Expect the agreement to keep nondefense 2026 spending equal to or less than this year’s level, though there will be exceptions, such as increased border security funding. Still, expect Congress to approve only a temporary funding extension that lasts a few weeks, as partisan disagreements and Trump’s tough bargaining make a year-long deal in September unlikely, kicking the shutdown threat down the road.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) filed a lawsuit in December 2024 alleging the same thing, but when that lawsuit was dropped in March 2025, New York's attorney general decided to file a suit of her own against the digital payment service to seek compensation for New York consumers.

The new lawsuit claims that Early Warning Services, LLC (EWS), the company that owns the Zelle app, knew fraud was a problem on the app but chose not to do anything about it. In response to the news, a Zelle spokesperson called the lawsuit "a political stunt to generate press, not progress."

The Zelle statement added: "More than 99.95% of all Zelle transactions are completed without any report of scam or fraud – which leads the industry."

If you've ever used Zelle to send or receive money, you know how convenient and quick it is. You have probably also heard about the many forms of fraud and scams that swindle unsuspecting users. Here's what you need to know about the New York lawsuit against Zelle and some tips to avoid being scammed when using payment apps.

Why the lawsuit blames Zelle for $1 billion in fraud losses

The short version of the charges by the New York attorney general's office is that EWS failed to implement safeguards that would have protected users from fraud.

The lawsuit alleges that after receiving repeated reports of fraud, EWS chose not to adopt basic safety measures that it had the technology and know-how to do. As a result, the lawsuit claims, consumers lost over $1 billion while the company profited from the app's rapid growth.

By the time the company adopted basic safeguards in 2023, the New York attorney general says that the measures were essentially too little, too late. She is now asking that Zelle pay stolen funds back to New York consumers who have been hit by fraudsters on the app.

Here's a quick timeline of what happened, according to the lawsuit:

• In 2017, the Zelle payment app was launched by EWS, a company co-owned by seven of the nation's largest banks – Bank of America, Chase, Wells Fargo, Capital One, Truist, PNC Bank and U.S. Bank. The app was rushed to market to compete with fast-growing rivals like Venmo and Cash App, the lawsuit says.
• Also beginning in 2017, EWS ran multiple ad campaigns emphasizing the app's safety and security. That included leveraging its connection to big banks that allowed the online payment system to be automatically integrated directly into users' existing mobile banking apps. One ad said Zelle is "backed by the banks, so you know it’s secure."
• By 2019, fraud was a problem, but the company hadn't adopted security measures to combat it, including not requiring banks to report fraud, the lawsuit claims. While it did require banks to report takeover fraud (when your account is hacked into or otherwise accessed without your permission), EWS was lax about the timing of reporting, the lawsuit claims, which gave fraudsters more time to "victimize additional consumers."
• In 2019, EWS developed a framework of "basic network safeguards" that could have made certain types of fraud more difficult. But, "EWS abandoned the basic network safeguards," the lawsuit says, opting for a less effective alternative.
• In 2023, the company implemented the "basic network safeguards" and fraud immediately decreased, suggesting that hundreds of millions of dollars could have potentially been saved in the years between 2019 and 2023 if EWS had adopted those safety measures when it first developed them. This is the main thrust of the attorney general's lawsuit.

Zelle's easy-to-use payment platform is just as easy to use for fraudsters

The same features that make Zelle so convenient for you also made it an easy target for fraudsters, according to the complaint filed by the New York state attorney general's office.

Some of the security gaps the lawsuit claims were present before "basic network safeguards" were implemented in 2023 included:

• A "quick registration process and lack of verification," making it easy for fraudsters to sign up.
• "Limited information displayed" when sending money to someone, making it easy for scammers to trick people into sending money to fraudulent email addresses.
• The immediate availability of funds after a transfer, making it easy for fraudsters to take the money and run, and next to impossible to claw those funds back if you're a victim.
• The ease with which users could change email addresses, link to different bank accounts or link to accounts at different banks, making it easy for scammers to juggle multiple scams at once and evade detection.

The complaint filed by the New York attorney general claims that basic safeguards could have helped protect many consumers from fraud.

As an example, the New York complaint describes a scam in which a fraudster registered on Zelle using an email with "Coned Billing" in the name — Con Edison is the major utility provider in New York City — and sent messages to users claiming they owed money and their power would be shut off if they didn't pay. The complaint says that if EWS had implemented a system for flagging potentially misleading email addresses, that email could have been blocked.

Protect yourself from fraud when using payment apps

While it's too early to say what will happen with the lawsuit in New York, there are steps you can take today to protect yourself from fraud or scams.

Here are a few of the most impactful steps:

• Know how easy it is to impersonate trusted people or organizations. Just because the name reads "Coned Billing" or otherwise looks familiar doesn't mean it's actually attached to the account in question. For individuals you send money to, get their payment app information from them in person and save it in your payment app ahead of time so you can easily spot a false contact.
• Know that you often can't get your money back from a scam. Zelle, and some participating banks, differentiate between "fraud" and "scams." Fraud is when someone takes money out of your account without your knowledge or permission. In many cases, banks will usually refund this type of theft. A scam, on the other hand, is when someone tricks you into voluntarily sending them money. Because it was technically voluntary, albeit through deception, some banks won't refund this type of theft. So, if you're ever in doubt, it's better to be too cautious.
• Hang up and verify before giving any personal information or sending money. Nothing is so urgent that you can't take a few minutes to verify the information you're being told. Even if the person knows certain details about you, hang up (or ignore the email). Then, go to the organization's website and use the contact information found there to call back.
• Question unusual or unexpected payment requests from loved ones. No matter how urgent or legitimate it seems, always hang up (or ignore the text/email) and call the person back by calling the number saved in your contact list. If it's that person, they won't mind you taking that minute to verify.
• If you really do owe money, pay it the way you normally would, not through a payment app. If your utility company or bank claims you owe money, you don't need to pay them right there via a payment app. You can log into the online portal where you usually schedule bill payments and see any balance owed there. Then, set up a payment using your usual methods. If online portals aren't available for a particular company, verify the amount owed in person and make the payment that way.
• Monitor your accounts regularly for unusual activity. Check your checking and savings accounts regularly, along with any credit cards you have. If you spot a transfer or charge that you don't recognize, call your bank right away. At the same time, change your password for accessing that account and consider locking the card or the account altogether while sorting out the issue with your bank.

Fraud prevention starts with awareness and caution

Regardless of the lawsuit’s outcome, this case is a reminder to stay vigilant when using payment services like Zelle. While providers should implement safeguards to keep scammers out, you should still be cautious and trust your instincts if something feels off.

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The White House wants to usher in a golden age of cryptocurrency and make the United States the “crypto capital of the world” by rolling back some regulatory enforcement and championing legislation that would broaden its accessibility and appeal.

The most telling feature of the Trump administration’s radical policy shift regarding crypto is the overturning of several policies put in place by the Biden administration that emphasized a cautious posture that sought to identify and mitigate the risk of cryptocurrencies. This was a stance that many in the cryptocurrency industry perceived as stifling for innovation, leading to the “Crypto Winter” of late 2022. At the heart of the White House’s new crypto framework is a comprehensive effort to resolve the persistent regulatory ambiguity that has defined the digital asset landscape in the U.S. for years.

The Trump policy strategy tackles reforming the cryptocurrency market by pushing for landmark legislation to create a permanent, clear market structure, coupled with an immediate executive mandate for federal regulators to provide more clarity to the industry.

A similar push to codify the regulation of digital assets is in the works in Congress. The first of these bills to become law, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, established a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Alongside the GENIUS Act, the House also recently passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. The CLARITY Act would establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, mainly by distinguishing cryptocurrencies as either commodities or securities. Meanwhile, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would ban the Federal Reserve from releasing a central bank digital currency without congressional approval.

These developments have set a clear regulatory path for stablecoins and crypto platforms, ushering in a new wave of institutional legitimacy and potentially widespread adoption of digital payments and finance in the U.S.

The GENIUS Act is the first major regulatory change that could trigger several significant shifts in the cryptocurrency industry, despite being limited to the regulation of stablecoins.

Stablecoins are a form of tokenized digital money using blockchain technology, the digital recordkeeping technology that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rely on. Their design aims to maintain a stable value, typically pegged one-to-one with conventional fiat currencies, most commonly the U.S. dollar. While bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and trade as speculative assets, stablecoins are primarily used for payments, remittances, and liquidity in crypto trading and lending platforms.

So far, demand for stablecoins has largely been confined to the crypto industry. The GENIUS Act’s requirement for 100% backing of stablecoins with high-quality assets is projected to create a substantial new source of demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other safe assets. The scale of this demand, however, will depend on how quickly and widely stablecoins are adopted outside of the crypto industry.

Stablecoins offer merchants and consumers potential incentives over traditional money. Merchants could benefit from greater efficiency for payment settlement, particularly for cross-border transactions. For consumers, stablecoins work primarily as a non-interest-bearing store of value akin to store gift cards. While there are potential benefits to be unlocked by merchants from the likes of rewards programs for using stablecoins, similar programs for gift cards or credit payments are already available to consumers, so for now, consumers may not see a clear benefit to switching to stablecoins for payments.

Stablecoins could also pose some risks for banks, primarily as a new form of competition. Stablecoins will likely become direct competitors to other financial products like bank deposits and government money market funds. Banks, however, seem to be aware of this potential problem and many are working on launching their own stablecoins.

The establishment of a regulatory framework is helping move digital assets from the fringes of financial markets into the mainstream. This shift will attract new investors and will likely accelerate growth in the industry. That said, lack of understanding remains the primary reason most people don’t hold crypto. Most people still don’t feel knowledgeable about trading or using it.

Trust is another big hurdle for the widespread adoption of crypto, with many people still skeptical of an industry that has been plagued from the beginning with large-scale scams, fraud and stolen funds. As ownership of cryptocurrencies becomes more common, it is also important to remember that many risks remain, and fraud is still a big issue in the industry.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Some situations are more obvious than others. But conference call commentary from C-suite executives generally suggests management teams are still seeking clarity about the impact of Trump's tariffs on revenue and margins – and will be for some time.

Efforts to offset potential negative impacts generally include controlling costs and managing prices. Commentary so far indicates supply chain adjustments and other cost-cutting moves are already happening, with scaled-back promotions and straight-up price hikes on the horizon.

We have heard multiple explicit profit warnings from companies operating in different goods-producing and consumer-facing spaces, such as automakers. However, some companies are revising their forecasts for the impact of Trump's tariffs, even providing more optimistic guidance.

The bottom line is impacts will vary from sector to sector and stock to stock, and we'll be tracking them now, for the next several quarters and the next several years as the Trump administration attempts to reshape global trade.

Headwinds or tailwinds

Since April 2, when President Trump first introduced his tariffs, we've seen a steep stock market sell-off followed by a historic rally to new all-time highs.

Markets have been similarly moved by incoming inflation data, which will continue to be noisy from report to report and period to period as the impact of tariffs works its way through the economy.

That the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have made new all-time closing highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has come within points of its own fresh peak this summer suggests that market participants are more optimistic now than they were when the indexes bottomed on April 7.

And it's possible, according to WisdomTree macro strategist Samuel Rines, that some impacts of Trump's tariffs could be positive for specific companies and their stock prices, at least in the short term.

"Many of the companies that provided guidance for tariff impacts in the past," Rines wrote in a late-July assessment of second-quarter earnings season, "are guiding away some of the impact in the future."

And we'll continue to hear from companies "with 'too much tariff' priced in," according to Rines, during the current reporting period and for as long as the Trump administration uses tariffs to advance trade and other policy goals.

Expectations management

Second-quarter earnings-per-share growth for the S&P 500 is tracking at 9% year over year as of this writing vs a pre-season estimate of 4%. And more than six of every 10 S&P 500 companies are beating earnings expectations, one of the best performances in a quarter century.

According to FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, "Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages."

At the same time, as Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Analyst David Kostin observes, "Sharp downward revisions to analyst estimates earlier this year created an unrealistically low bar for companies heading into the reporting season, boosting the frequency of earnings beats."

It is a market of stocks, and those stocks represent companies, some with more and some with less exposure to tariffs. Trends with even greater gravity, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the infrastructure build-out to support it, are also in play.

So the stories to watch over the next several quarters, according to WisdomTree's Rines, are on the ground.

"Some will execute," Rines concludes. "Some will not."

For some groups, it's the theme, for others just a theme. So let's take a look at how your exposure to specific sectors and stocks could be impacted by President Trump's tariffs.

Communication services

Communication services stocks such as Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META) and Netflix (NFLX) that see greater shares of revenue from advertising and subscriptions are likely to be more resilient in a rising-tariffs environment.

GOOGL is up 29%, META 45.4%, and NFLX 33.5% since April 7.

Through August 1, the Communications Services Select SPDR ETF (XLC) is up 21.8% from the April 7 post-Liberation Day bottom.

The sector includes old-school telecoms such as AT&T (T) and Verizon Communications (VZ), which are up 5.6% and 3.9%.

Consumer discretionary

Ford Motor (F), like fellow automakers General Motors (GM), Stellantis (STLA) and Tesla (TSLA), is a consumer discretionary stock.

Ford recently reported its first quarterly loss in two years due to an $800 million tariff hit. F stock is actually up 20.2% since April 7.

GM, which reported $1.1 billion in tariff costs for the second quarter and expects a total impact of $4 billion to $5 billion for the full year, has added 21.6%.

Stellantis expects a $1.5 billion profit hit this year; the stock is up 3.1%.

Tesla's better positioned than traditional automakers in the U.S. market due to its domestic production and supply chain concentration in North America, and this is reflected in its 29.7% gain off the April low.

Meanwhile, Amazon.com (AMZN), up 22.5% since April 7, presents a complex case because of the depth and breadth of its third-party seller market. That's a big question for this and future reporting periods.

All told, the Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR ETF (XLY) is up 19.9% since April 7.

Consumer staples

When Procter & Gamble (PG) reported its second-quarter results, management said it expects approximately $800 million in higher costs for the full year due to Trump's tariffs.

In April, during the depths of post-Liberation Day despair, P&G forecast a full-year hit "in the range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion."

PG, among the biggest and best-known consumer staples stocks, hasn't enjoyed much tailwind from its outlook for a smaller tariff impact, though, slipping 3.8% since its July 29 report.

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is up 4.1% since April 7, but is No. 10 among the 11 S&P 500 sectors during that time frame.

Underperformance reflects the simple difficulties confronting businesses with similar internal cost-and-price options as other types of business, but far fewer external megatrend catalysts (AI, for example) to offset those efforts and support margins.

Energy

Like many companies engaged in significant industrial activities, oil and gas exploration and production companies will face higher costs due to a 50% tariff on imported steel and new duties on other inputs for equipment and infrastructure.

Higher steel and aluminum prices will impact energy stocks in multiple industries, including electric, renewable energy and pipeline companies as well as E&Ps such as Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has added 10.1% since April 7. CVX is up 9.4%, XOM 7.5%.

Financials

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and other financial stocks will reflect the macroeconomic impact of tariffs, but not so much any specific cost or price pressures.

The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is up 17% from the April 7 bottom, with JPM stock rising 35.6%.

Health care

Health care involves a lot of pure domestic service, so health care stocks such as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will continue to move based on traditional fundamental factors and the market's perception of their ability to generate free cash flow for investors.

At the same time, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), down 0.6%, is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs with a negative return since April 7, anchored by beleaguered UNH.

And there are nominal health care stocks such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which forecast during its first-quarter conference call $400 million of 2025 tariff impacts but cut that figure to approximately $200 million when it announced second-quarter results.

JNJ stock is up a little more than 12% so far in 2025, but did see a bit of a post-earnings bounce in late July.

Industrials

Not all companies that make and sell big, heavy machinery and other stuff are stalling out under the weight of Trump's tariffs. It's quite the opposite for many industrial stocks.

The Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) is up 27.9% since April 7, good for the No. 2 ranking among the 11 sector ETFs.

Bellwether Caterpillar (CAT) did report lackluster second-quarter results and does expect a $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion tariff hit in 2025. But management also noted the benefits of its exposure to broader trends such as the infrastructure buildout to support the AI revolution.

And 3M (MMM) guided down the full-year per-share impact of tariffs from a range of 20 cents to 40 cents to a net total impact of 10 cents. As Rines says, that "might sound trivial. But the interaction of expecting a larger impact and preparing for it led 3M to guide earnings higher than its pre-tariff (January) expectation."

Not all companies will manage tariffs the way 3M has, but those that offered worst-case guidance should enjoy the direction of travel.

Information technology

The Magnificent 7 are not all strictly tech stocks. Officially, we see TSLA and AMZN with consumer discretionary stocks, NFLX among communication services.

But we do have Apple (AAPL).

CEO Tim Cook said the iPhone maker faces $1.1 billion in additional costs due to tariffs during the current quarter, up from $800 million for its fiscal 2025 third quarter. But that was lower than management's original $900 million estimate.

Apple's exposure to higher tariffs on goods from China is well-known. AAPL stock is up 11.7% since the April 7 post-Liberation Day bottom. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 23.6%.

Microsoft (MSFT), meanwhile, must manage costs and inventories but continues to benefit from strong AI-driven revenue growth in its Azure cloud platform.

Indeed, MSFT stock is up 46.7% since April 7 and recently became the second company ever to surpass the $4 trillion market-cap threshold.

The first $4 trillion stock was, of course, Nvidia (NVDA), which is at the center of the AI revolution and is the hub around which "hyperscalers" are spending billions for an infrastructure build-out that continues to show it's a bigger market force than tariffs.

CEO Jensen Huang has courted President Trump publicly and privately, emphasizing the importance of American leadership of the global AI infrastructure build-out. The White House has also eased restrictions on chip exports to China.

Nvidia will report fiscal 2026 second-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 27, and we'll find out more about the durability of the trend.

Already, the other six Mag 7 stocks have grown earnings by 26% year over year vs 4% for the rest of the S&P 500.

The Information Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) has led the market back from the April 7 bottom with a gain of 40.4%.

Materials

DuPont (DD) continues to demonstrate its one of the best materials stocks to buy.

Management initially forecast a $60 million profit hit in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs related to shipping products to its own operations in China for final completion.

Management has adjusted its supply chains, sought exemptions and implemented surcharges to offset the impact.

And, now, DuPont expects a tariff-related hit of only $20 million, or 4 cents per share, down from 10 cents per share.

And management raised its full-year guidance to $4.40 per share, as broader business conditions offset tariff concerns.

DD stock is up 21.8% year to date, driving the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB), which has risen 15.3% since April 7.

Real estate

The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) has posted a total return of 9.6% since April 7, third-worst among the 11 official sectors.

The U.S. real estate market remains stuck due to high interest rates and other factors contributing to affordability, and real estate stocks continue to struggle.

At the same time, the National Association of Homebuilders notes that "tariffs on building materials and home appliances raise the cost of housing, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices and goods."

According to the NAHB, Canada accounts for approximately 85% of U.S. softwood lumber imports, so the increase in tariff rates on Canada from 25% to 35% will have a significant impact on building costs.

Utilities

Like many industrial operators, utilities could face higher costs for energy storage and other heavy equipment. But management teams are sanguine about their contract protections, their ability to manage their supply chains and their long-term planning. And utility stocks are also enjoying an AI bounce.

Indeed, utilities such as Constellation Energy Group (CEG), Duke Energy (DUK) and NextEra Energy (NEE) are not likely to see material financial impacts to their forecasts or their results due to tariffs.

Electricity demand is rising along with spending on AI infrastructure, with more and more computing capacity requiring more and more power.

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) has generated a total return of 19.8% since April 7.

Utilities are actually the top-performing sector on a year-to-date basis with a gain of 17.7% through August 1.

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Trump secured a trade deal with Japan last week that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese goods. He said of the agreement: "I just signed the largest trade deal in history; I think maybe the largest deal in history with Japan."

The good news, at least for Japanese automakers, is that the 15% tariffs will cover automobiles and automotive parts, which gives them an edge over other car companies that incur 25% tariffs, particularly for cars and parts made in Canada.

On the other side of the deal, Japan pledges to invest $550 billion in the U.S. to build reliable supply chains in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, while also purchasing up to $8 billion in agricultural food. Its importers will also pay a 15% reciprocal tariff on supplies.

While leaders from both countries praise this deal, it's still a tariff, which means companies could absorb some of these costs or pass them on to you. Here are five shopping verticals that might become more expensive for you as a result of this trade policy.

Expect to pay more for your next car

If you plan to buy a foreign vehicle made with parts from Japan, you can expect to see some of those extra costs. Even with the lower tariffs imposed, 15% is a substantial fee to pay to import cars overseas. These companies won't eat all the total costs forever.

How much will it cost you to buy a new Toyota, Nissan or Mazda? Prices could increase up to $6,000 for new vehicles, per Kelley Blue Book.

Keep in mind that not only will this affect the sticker price you'll pay, but it also impacts all other facets of owning a car, such as paying more in sales tax, financing, car repairs and insurance.

Certain TVs could become pricier

Some of the most common television brands, such as Sony, Panasonic, Sharp and Hitachi, come from Japan. We're already seeing significant signs of price increases for specific models, though these companies aren't saying it's due to tariffs.

Here's an example:

When Sony released the 65-inch Bravia A80L OLED in 2023, its price was $2,500. The newest model now goes for $3,400, according to Vocal, an increase of $900. This is at a time when Tom's Guide found prices for OLED models were dropping below the $1,000 mark.

That said, there's good news: You can secure an exceptional deal on older models. Here's a Sony OLED for under $1,900, where you'll save $400:

Say cheese: Your next camera could make you smile less

Fujifilm shifted production of its X series cameras from China to Japan because of the economic uncertainty about tariffs. While Japan didn't incur a 51% combined tariff on imported goods as China does, that 15% still means higher costs, at a time when some camera companies are already raising prices.

Digital Photography Review reports that some camera makers have raised prices due to tariffs. Cannon's average price hike was 9.7%, with price increases for models ranging from $100 to $500.

This means if you're looking for a digital camera from Fujifilm, now is the time to capitalize before price increases go into effect:

Your next joy ride might come at a higher cost

Japan has built a reputation for its stylish and nimble motorcycles from brands such as Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Kawasaki. Tariffs have hit the motorcycle market hard.

Some dealers report shortages of imported motorcycles, in part due to companies waiting to see how the tariffs play out. That shortage created a buyer's frenzy for older models, while the few newer models increased from $2,000 to $5,000 on average per West Coast Shipping. Expect this trend to continue.

Japanese drinks and food are expected to increase in price

Japan exports all sorts of tasty goodies to the U.S. If you're a fan of Japanese whiskey, sake, green tea and matcha, caviar, sushi and other items, the tariffs will hit your wallet.

While it's hard to determine by how much prices will increase, you can look at the big picture. The Yale Budget Lab found that the overall tariff rate customers pay is 20.2%, the highest it's been since 1911. On average, tariffs will cost the average household $2,700 more than regular expenses for 2025.

Ultimately, the 15% reciprocal tariff reached between Japan and the U.S. is far better than the original 25% proposed. On top of this, Japan's pledge of $550 billion into the U.S. economy to build supply chains in key sectors is a good thing, as it will create jobs.

At the same time, tariffs are still taxes, and someone must pay them. This means you can expect the costs of some of these goods to increase, which means now is the ideal time to secure a deal.

Too bad you can't stock up on fresh sushi.

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When you zoom in on specific items, the story is more complicated. Overall food inflation might be dipping closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but certain goods are still seeing double-digit inflation. According to the latest CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, egg prices are up 27.3% year-over-year, while coffee and ground beef are up 16.3% and 10.3%, respectively.

Rates were held steady, as expected, at the July Federal Reserve meeting, which concluded Wednesday.

Now, you might be wondering if there's any hope for an upcoming cut in the federal funds rate, and if a cut would bring grocery prices down. Here's a breakdown of the relationship between interest rates and food prices, along with a more in-depth look at why prices are so high and the future outlook for your grocery bill.

Does the federal interest rate impact grocery prices?

What impact, if any, federal interest rates have on grocery prices is tricky to pinpoint. The basic principle behind how the Federal Reserve works is that interest rates control the money supply. When rates are high, money is expensive to borrow, so consumers tighten their belts in an effort to spend only the cash they have on hand and avoid using credit or taking out major loans. When rates are low, the opposite happens.

In theory, then, high interest rates should curb inflation by decreasing demand as consumers spend less. In reality, the actual impact the federal funds rate has on inflation varies depending on the market you're talking about and the underlying causes of inflation.

In the case of groceries, the impact is, at best, subtle and indirect. No matter how expensive money is to borrow and no matter how high grocery prices get, people need to eat. While there are ways to save on groceries by shopping sales or opting for generic alternatives to name-brand products, there's only so much cost-cutting you can do here because you still have to eat.

That's led to a somewhat disturbing trend of more and more shoppers turning to buy now, pay later (BNPL) apps and services like Klarna or AfterPay to finance their grocery purchases. A recent LendingTree survey found that 25% of BNPL users are using the short-term loans to pay for groceries, citing the need to "bridge" the gap from one paycheck to the next.

On the business side, interest rates could indirectly affect grocery prices by raising the cost of the money retailers use to pay for inventory. If retailers are hit with higher interest rates on loans and credit used to keep shelves stocked, they may pass some of those higher costs on to you. But calculating just how much of today's sky-high grocery prices are the result of higher borrowing costs isn't straightforward and will vary from one retailer to the next.

To whatever extent higher borrowing costs are inflating grocery prices, a rate cut might help bring your bill down, assuming retailers choose to pass those savings on to you.

Why are groceries so much more expensive?

Even if interest rates are partly to blame for rising grocery prices, other factors have had a much bigger impact on your bill.

It's also important to keep in mind that while the federal funds rate can impact grocery prices, grocery prices also impact the federal funds rate. The Fed looks to prices and inflation to decide what to do to best help the economy. For example, they raised interest rates in the wake of the pandemic because prices were high.

With that in mind, here are some of the key drivers of past and future inflation on your grocery bill:

• Supply chain disruptions. The pandemic broke down already weak supply chains, creating shortages and sending prices soaring faster than they had since 1979. While things have since stabilized, an FTC report published last year found that retailers have kept their prices high despite no longer facing those same supply chain issues.
• Extreme weather. As the climate warms, searing heat and more frequent natural disasters are decimating crops worldwide. This can create a ripple effect of shortages, impacting not just the cost of that produce item, but any of the packaged foods that use that ingredient.
• Tariffs. It's hard to keep track of what's going on with President Donald Trump's tariffs. But, so far, shoppers have already seen costs go up on certain specialty foods like coffee, chocolate and produce that can't be grown in the United States. Depending on where trade negotiations end up, more foods could see tariff-related price increases or the ones already facing tariffs could become even more expensive.
• Farm worker shortages. One side effect of the Trump administration's immigration crackdown is a shortage of farm workers in the United States. According to the USDA, 42% of farmworkers are undocumented immigrants. With many either deported, detained or too scared to show up to work, crops are going unharvested. This will lead to a combination of food shortages and more dependence on imported crops (which may carry tariffs).

How to save on groceries

You might not have much control over macroeconomic policy or global weather patterns, but there are simple strategies you can use to counteract those soaring grocery bills.

Here are some of the most effective methods to try:

• Join your grocery store's loyalty program. These are often free to join and come with special deals and early alerts to upcoming discounts.
• Use cash back cards with elevated rates for groceries. While no credit card offers enough cash back to make up for the 31% inflation in grocery prices since 2019, some have surprisingly generous rewards, especially on groceries. Earning those rewards helps put some of that money back in your pocket. See our best cash back credit cards of 2025.
• Take advantage of deals to stock up on non-perishable items. If your favorite shelf-stable foods or household essentials are on sale, stock up. Just make sure not to stock up more than you can comfortably store at home.
• Plan meals with overlapping ingredients. You can often save by buying larger quantities of ingredients or at least minimize waste by using up what you've already bought. If you're buying a pound of carrots for a recipe that only needs one, look for another recipe to use up the rest of that bag.
• Join a warehouse club to take advantage of bulk discounts. Costco or Sam's Club are both known for everyday low prices on groceries and household essentials. If you haven't already joined one, do your research and compare the perks and products offered by each. You should also check which one has a location closest to you.

Like everyone else who needs to eat, we'll continue to keep an eye on grocery prices and look for ways to save, while remembering just how many factors go into the price of eggs.

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The Kiplinger Letter has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

Congress just passed the biggest higher education policy update in two decades. The Republicans’ recent tax and spending law includes new caps on federal loans, new repayment plans and a sweeping accountability system. With most rules set to take effect next July, the Education Department and colleges need to act fast.

To try to lower college prices and student debt, an overhaul of federal student loans is coming. Federal student debt stands at $1.7 trillion, affecting about 43 million borrowers. Half of the debt comes from graduate loans, a big target of the law. Under the new policy, graduate students and parents of undergrads face new caps on yearly and total borrowing. (Limits on loans made directly to undergrads are unchanged.) A simplified loan repayment plan is on tap, which will reap about $270 billion in federal savings over a decade. Two repayment plans, a standard one with fixed payments and a new income-driven plan, spell higher monthly payments for many borrowers.

The new accountability system marks a huge shift. Schools will lose access to federal lending if graduates don’t earn more than nonattendees in the state. Advocates of the system say the goal is to push high-cost programs to reduce their prices. Undergrads will be measured against those with high school diplomas. Grad programs get measured against similarly situated adults without a graduate degree. 20% or more of associate degrees fail this test, per an analysis by Preston Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. That failure rate comes with a caveat: “Students in these programs are less likely to use loans to begin with,” writes Cooper. “Many will be able to continue operating even if they lose loan access.” Around 8% of all master’s degree programs fail the test (the failure rate is higher for master’s degrees at for-profits). But just 3% of bachelor’s degrees fail.

Among the other policy changes: A bigger endowment tax on wealthy schools of up to 8%, up from today’s top rate of 1.4%. Small colleges with fewer than 3,000 students are exempt, however. And Pell Grants are now available for very short work programs of eight to 15 weeks, a big win for community colleges. Pells also received an extra $10.5 billion in funding.

Schools are racing to adapt and alert students about financial aid changes, though much uncertainty remains. Revenue could take a hit if fewer students enroll, especially at schools that rely heavily on grad programs. Some programs will shrink or be cut, as schools at least consider lowering tuition in some cases.

Expect more business for private lenders, such as College Ave, SoFi, Sallie Mae and Ascent. For example, 40% of medical students borrow more than the law’s annual loan limit. Private loans make up 8% of overall student debt and that figure is sure to increase.

Delays are likely as the Education Department faces implementation struggles. The agency has cut half of its workforce so far and has a lengthy, complex to-do list with tight deadlines. Passing the bill is “just the tip of the iceberg,” says Sarah Sattelmeyer, an education policy analyst at New America. “An incredible amount of work is coming at the Education Department.” This includes issuing reams of rules and guidance about loans, starting the new accountability system, policing lending violations and much more.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration will continue to pressure institutions to change policies, including by withholding current or future federal research funds. Expect more investigations of antisemitism, diversity, foreign students and other issues.

All this change comes as schools face other financial headwinds. A sharp decline in foreign enrollment looms ahead. There’s a homegrown demographic challenge, as the college-age population shrinks in the coming years. Higher costs of everything from construction to insurance are stressing budgets. These trends, and the new policies, mean more schools will mull budget cuts, while also considering sharing resources with other schools or even mergers.

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These quarterly reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) require disclosures of buys and sells by institutions that manage more than $100 million, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, registered investment advisers and insurance companies.

Berkshire made waves in 2013 with its initial investment in Kraft and its resulting stake in Kraft Heinz (KHC) after a megamerger with peer Heinz. Berkshire's 13F filings when it comes to this particular investment have been remarkably consistent since then.

A decade ago, Berkshire reported 325,634,818 shares of KHC stock. As of its most recent SEC report in May, that figure is exactly the same.

Now, the market is abuzz about a potentially disruptive sale of Berkshire’s KHC stake. Say there's merit to the rumors: Why would Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway want to sell?

What does it mean for BRK.B and KHC shareholders if such a big transaction takes place?

Kraft Heinz merger and recent history

Heinz ketchup was introduced in 1876, so the roots of this company go back a long way. The last 15 years of corporate history are particularly relevant to the recent troubles at KHC, however.

In 2012, Kraft Foods spun out its snack food offerings as Mondelez International (MDLZ). The idea was that Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolates had a more global and growth-oriented footprint than other processed-food staples in the product portfolio.

Mondelez was actually the bulk of the operations at the time, valued at about $36 billion compared with the $19 billion staples arm that was left as Kraft.

In 2013, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway partnered with 3G Capital Management to buy the whole of H.J. Heinz for $23.3 billion and took the firm private.

The initial Buffett-Berkshire stake was nearly $10 billion, adding up to about 325 million shares.

In 2015, Kraft and Heinz were mashed up in a $45 billion merger. The deal resulted in a combined debt load of approximately $33 billion at the new entity.

Management cut the dividend, reduced spending on product development and eschewed general long-term planning.

Consumers were already skeptical of legacy packaged foods, and investors were eager for exciting growth stories. As Main Street abandoned its products, Wall Street gave up on KHC.

Berkshire's initial stake remains unchanged at roughly 325 million shares, however, making it a rare constant during this tumultuous period.

Will Buffett and Berkshire sell Kraft Heinz?

Berkshire has accumulated dividends on its shares along the way. But from a share-appreciation perspective, the deal has been a dud.

The combined KHC began trading around $46 post-merger but closed at $28.78 July 24, a loss of more than 37%. Worse, KHC stock is down a nasty 70% from its short-lived high in 2017.

Given this underperformance — and with Warren Buffett set to step down as CEO of the holding company at the end of the year — it seems natural for Berkshire to consider closing the books on the past and looking to the future.

Besides, Berkshire's investment thesis has prioritized income-generating stocks that offer strong cash flow, and KHC clearly doesn’t fit that mold. Not only did Kraft Heinz execute a 2019 dividend cut, it remains bloated with $20 billion in remaining debt that causes a persistent drag on finances.

On top of that, the most glaring proof that an exit might be forthcoming is that Berkshire representatives have quit the Kraft Heinz board.

With a massive stake that's more than a quarter of all shares, however, any exit won't be easy. That’s where some financial engineering — including a breakup of Kraft and Heinz — could come in.

Berkshire’s departing board members have publicly admitted pushing for merger-and-acquisition explorations recently, and such a deal could provide built-in purchasing power through restructuring and assistance from institutional buyers.

Smaller divestitures have happened at Berkshire, including a recent deal to sell its infant and specialty food division to NewPrinces, a top food producer in the region.

But recent challenges seem to be structural and demand a big move.

Buffet, Berkshire and what's next for KHC stock

Berkshire could theoretically muddle through in the face of all this. But as the recent rumor mill seems to indicate, it’s more likely they'll use any retransformation at KHC as an opportunity to cut and run.

For those who want context on what might happen, it's worth looking back at how previous stocks performed after Berkshire Hathaway sold off a significant stake.

In May, Berkshire announced it sold some 14 million shares of Citigroup (C), according to its 13F filing. To be clear, this transaction was announced in May but occurred across the January 1-to-March 31 reporting period.

However you slice it, those 14 million shares didn't hold back C stock, which has rallied nearly 35% in 2025.

Just as noteworthy is that the average volume for Citigroup is almost exactly the same amount at 14 million shares daily. In other words, Berkshire could have satisfied all market demand for one session if no one else on the planet sold a single share of Citi.

Unfortunately daily volume in KHC is also about 14 million shares — meaning the total stake adds up to more than a month of trading volume rather than just a single day.

Berkshire doesn't have to dump all its shares at once. However, a slow bleed of selling could provide a public signal that causes other investors to sell, creating a negative feedback loop that punishes shares.

Berkshire's next 13F reporting date is August 14, and it will be closely watched. The bottom line is a stake such as this is hard to get rid of without making waves.

Which, of course, is why Berkshire might be so eager for an alternative arrangement alongside a merger, breakup or other structural change.

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From Friday, January 17, through Friday, July 18, WFIVX generated a total return of 4.8%. Broadly speaking, then, the stock market is up during the first six months of the second Trump administration.

But most of us experience the stock market at the headline level (especially during the second Trump administration). And the Wilshire 5000, which, as of June 30, included 3,289 publicly traded companies from $50 million micro-caps such as Natural Health Trends (NHTC) to $4 trillion mega-caps such as Nvidia (NVDA), rarely makes headlines. That relatively light 4.8% return doesn't reflect the overall feeling of the market so far in this administration.

The journey looks better in sharper focus: The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are trading near all-time highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is knocking on a new peak of its own. The S&P 500 has returned 5.7% since January 17, the Nasdaq 6.8% and the Dow 2.9%.

And perhaps only cryptocurrency and bitcoin capture the absolutely risk-on nature of the stock market so far into No. 47's tenure. Crypto is now a $4 trillion market, and bitcoin recently crossed $120,000 for the first time.

As with anything, the numbers alone don't tell the whole story, and growth has not been a straightforward upward climb. So, how is the stock market performing under Donald Trump's second term as president so far? Let's break it down.

The map and the terrain of the stock market under Trump

To simply say the stock market is up during the first six months of the second Trump administration doesn't show you very much beyond the basic trajectory from point A to point B. It is, as they say, the difference between the "map" and the "terrain." It avoids discussion of the historic volatility and market-moving uncertainty since Trump returned to the White House.

The list of Trump's market-impacting policies includes trade wars and tariffs, immigration crackdowns and labor market stressors, energy security and nuclear power, cryptocurrency regulation and a bitcoin reserve… and real, actual war in Central Europe and the Middle East.

Prices of some assets have moved simply because they're Trump-related, with little more than a general personality trend and some headline-driven momentum supporting them. That's what happens in a bull market – and it has been a bull market six months into the second Trump administration.

The story of stocks' performance under Trump

Let's take a look back at the first Trump presidency. During the first six months of the first go-around, the Wilshire 5000 Index Fund generated a total return of 9.3%. And, before the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off, the main U.S. equity indexes were pushing out to new all-time highs.

Stocks resumed their long-term up-and-to-the-right trajectory within months of the initial February 2020 crash. In fact, returns of 13.6% per year during Trump's first presidency made him one of the best presidents based on stock market performance, between Barack Obama (12.8%) and Bill Clinton (15.0%).

After Trump was elected for a second time last November, investors traded with apparent optimism that we would again see growth. They only hit a stumble in late winter, when DeepSeek temporarily sidetracked the AI Revolution.

Stocks moved sideways until "Liberation Day" on April 2 defined the spring of the second administration – and redefined the Trump Trade. The S&P 500 declined more than 10% over the next two trading sessions, the president's announcement immolating nearly $7 trillion in total stock market value by April 4. After that, Trump paused the tariffs for a period and, since that initial shock, the market has largely grown to the historic heights we're seeing now.

It's also important to appreciate price action beyond equities, primarily in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield – a key benchmark for the global financial system and a critical baseline for many big-ticket consumer purchases – has fluctuated as much as the stock market amid tariff-related uncertainty.

The yield on the 10-year hit a 52-week high of 4.896% on January 13, a week before Trump's second inauguration, and traded as low as 3.860% on April 4 before spiking to 4.607% on May 21, then settling at 4.431% on July 18.

Market observers have also questioned the future of the U.S. dollar as the linchpin of the global economic system.

But, with the headline-generating equity indexes at all-time highs, it's fair to say it's a bull market, no matter how exactly we got there.

And, after the last six months, it's hard to see what would bring investors, traders and speculators back to pessimism sufficient enough to sustain a bear market over a meaningful period – other than a major worldwide catastrophe of uncontemplated proportions.

How ETFs are doing during the second Trump administration

All that said, most of us are exposed to the stock market through IRA and 401(k) accounts and index-based exchange-traded and mutual funds, so let's look at that performance.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) – the biggest of the S&P 500 ETFs – generated a total return of 5.7% from January 17 through July 18, as you might expect given the underlying index's performance. Top holdings include NVDA as well as Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL).

Crypto is enjoying a Trump-supported renaissance not yet two decades into its existence, with the best bitcoin ETFs such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) built to capture its full flowering.

IBIT is up 11.8% during the second Trump administration. IBIT has surged on the promise and now the passage and signature into law by President Trump of the first major cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S.

The VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) – an efficient way to invest in the nuclear revolution – has outperformed VOO (and NVDA, for that matter) since January 17 with a return of 34.2% through July 18. NLR's outperformance is a reaction to four executive orders to accelerate the U.S. nuclear industry signed by President Trump in late May.

Meanwhile, financials are good bellwethers because of their broad and diverse exposure to multiple levels of financial and real-world market activity. That the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is up 5.3% suggests it's one of the best SPDR ETFs to buy and hold and that it's steady as it goes so far in the second Trump administration.

How stocks are doing during the second Trump administration

At the end of the day, it's a market of stocks. Components drive indexes. Some provide the gas, some provide the brakes.

Nvidia is the gas for the whole stock market – and maybe the entire economy too. NVDA – still tops among the Magnificent 7 – was a $322.5 billion stock on January 19, 2021, the day Trump officially left the White House the first time around.

As of July 18, Nvidia is the most valuable publicly traded company ever at $4.2 trillion. Helped by recent favorable adjustments for semiconductors in Trump's tariffs policy, NVDA stock has risen 25.2% since his return to the White House to a new all-time high as of July 18.

Another large-cap tech stock, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), is the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 since January 17, though following a run of 113.9%, it's earned a place on the list of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks right now. At the same time, PLTR's capabilities demand a premium, similarly reflected in defense stock Howmet Aerospace (HWM) and its 52.2% Trump II gain.

Tesla (TSLA), meanwhile, has enjoyed the ecstasy and the agony of its once-tight but since-frayed ties to the White House. TSLA soared 94.3% to an all-time intraday high of $488.54 after Trump's election, then fell 56.1% when CEO Elon Musk began to question the president about taxes and spending.

TSLA stock has ultimately lost 22.7% since January 17 amid questions about Musk's priorities.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has weighed down the Dow Jones Industrial Average in recent months due to foul business practices in its Medicare Advantage unit, erasing 43.9% of its value.

And finally, for the record, Trump Media & Technology (DJT) is down 53.6% since its namesake's inauguration.

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"When you look at the first quarter, pricing was up; second quarter, pricing was essentially flat. But we've banked some of those gains, and that's part of our 30% offset that we've talked about," CFO Paul Jacobson said on CNBC's Squawk Box.

"So we don't expect any specific price increases related to tariffs, but certainly pricing and stability is important for us as we continue to manage our inventories with discipline and really drive the business for cash flows."

President Donald Trump instituted a 25% tariff on all imported cars and auto parts, with some particularities including that vehicles assembled in the U.S. are eligible for partial tariff rebates. The tariff went into effect in late spring.

While GM, which includes Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac, has manufacturing sites in the U.S., the company also has other global operations. GM seems to be taking efforts to mitigate long-term impacts of tariffs: The company announced a $4 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing plants in June that will go in part towards the production of the gas-powered Chevrolet Blazer and Equinox, which are currently produced in Mexico, CNBC reported.

Looking ahead, GM plans to invest between $10 billion and $12 billion annually through 2027, with a focus on boosting U.S. production in key states: Orion Assembly in Michigan, Fairfax Assembly in Kansas and Spring Hill Assembly in Tennessee. This initiative is part of a larger strategy to improve operational efficiency and strengthen its manufacturing presence in the U.S.

On Squawk Box this week, CFO Jacobson reiterated that consistent pricing is a key component of GM's strategy. So, whether you're in the market for a new car or if you already own a GM car, the company aims to keep cars' values and prices predictable.

"While we've seen a lot of heavy incentives from our competitors over the last few years, we've maintained a lot of pricing consistency," he said. "And we think that's important for our customers to make sure that they can count on us, but also to make sure that we're watching and monitoring residual values, because our customers do hold on to these vehicles and want to make sure that they maintain their value."

Overall, car prices have not gone up yet since tariffs were introduced, but discounts have started to become less generous, according to Kiplinger Letter managing editor Jim Patterson. He expects sticker prices will eventually rise by 4%-8%.

Another concern for car shoppers is that cheaper models — those in the $30,000 range — could become more scarce since they are often imported and have lower margins, Patterson reported. The battery-powered Chevrolet Equinox, which is in that price range, was the third best-selling electric vehicle in the U.S. year-to-date, GM reported in its earnings.

Keep in mind, there's been a rush on EVs since the "big, beautiful" bill put an expiration date on EV tax credits. You can now only get a credit before September 30 of this year. Basically, whether you're in the market for an electric, hybrid or gas-powered car, you may want to think about shopping sooner rather than later as these credits go away and tariffs come into play.

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One of China’s most potent trade weapons that it is wielding as the U.S. threatens new tariffs is a near-stranglehold on rare earth elements, a group of obscure minerals that happen to be vital to many high-tech applications and products. It’s not that rare earths are rare, exactly. But they are hard to mine and process. They aren’t evenly distributed across the world. Extracting and refining them is a messy process that can cause a lot of pollution.

China realized this decades ago and decided to exploit its sizable deposits of rare earths, ignoring the environmental damage. Its leaders wanted to corner the market, and they did. Consider the things that require rare earths: Drones. Missiles. Fighter jets. Spacecraft. Wind turbines. Electric cars. AI servers. That’s just a partial list. In general, rare earths are key to the magnets in advanced electric motors. Thus, they are vital for applications like advanced robots.

The U.S. has already eased up on tariffs in response to China’s recent ban on rare earth exports. But Beijing is still slow-walking sales of rare earths to American importers. What’s more, it still does not permit exports of them to U.S. defense contractors. Companies here and abroad are scrambling to lessen their dependence on rare earths where possible, knowing that China could cut off their supplies. BMW, for example, sells EVs whose electric motors don’t use rare earths. Other automakers are trying to do likewise. Japan has stockpiled a year’s worth of rare earths, after it suffered from an earlier Chinese export ban over a decade ago. But that is just a stopgap.

What’s needed is rare-earth mines and processing plants outside of China. Unfortunately, it takes time to open them: Three years, by one estimate. Still, expect a concerted push to reduce the world’s reliance on China. Countries with the most promising deposits: Brazil, South Africa, Namibia and other African nations. Greenland is also believed to have a rich trove of them, one reason President Trump is so keen on acquiring it, but mining may not be doable.

For now, the U.S. has only one functioning mine, called Mountain Pass, in California. New processing plants are a work in progress. One just opened in Malaysia. Australian miner Lynas is building another in Texas, but is waiting for new funding from Uncle Sam. There is also talk of a plant in Nebraska at NioCorp’s Elk Creek deposit. There are two major hurdles to building these plants: First, their wastewater and other toxic by-products generally provoke local opposition. Second, Beijing has positioned China as the main maker of the equipment for processing rare earths.

Ultimately, it’s going to take some political willpower, either in the U.S. or overseas, to support (and likely fund) alternatives to China’s monopoly on supply.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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As he was born in 1946, his full retirement age (FRA) was 66, a milestone he hit in 2012. The same year Trump launched his first bid for the presidency in 2016, he turned 70. At that age, he would have been eligible to claim his maximum benefit by earning delayed retirement credits.

Does Trump claim Social Security benefits? According to his most recently available tax return, tax year 2020, he doesn’t claim Social Security benefits. The first lady won't be eligible to claim Social Security until 2037, when she turns 62.

It’s not easy to find out whether our senators or representatives are claiming Social Security benefits. No one in any of the three branches — judicial, executive or legislative — is required to release their 1040s.

They do have to file financial disclosure forms, but the forms don’t reveal if the filer had reported Social Security benefits that were taxable or not.

Historic returns that are available don't reveal much; benefits only became taxable in 1984 after the passage of the 1983 Amendments to the Social Security Act. There would be no track record to follow without the taxation of benefits.

If you're wondering if presidents pay Social Security taxes on their income, they do, starting in 1984. The Social Security Act in 1983 brought members of Congress, the president and vice president, federal judges and most political appointees under the Social Security program.

The wages paid to Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush '41, Clinton, George W. Bush '43, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden were subject to FICA taxes.

My best resource for presidential tax return records was the Tax Analyst’s Tax History Project, which includes presidential tax returns going back to Woodrow Wilson. Let’s take a look at which politicians claim Social Security benefits.

President Donald Trump and Melania Trump did not claim benefits as of 2020

President Trump didn't release his tax returns; his tax returns from 2015 through 2020 were released by the House Ways and Means Committee that voted along party lines to release the returns on December 20, 2022.

While none of these returns show any Social Security income, they do provide other information. On their 2020 federal tax return (PDF), both Donald and Melania Trump checked 'Yes" to add $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign fund. They showed $915,171 in itemized deductions and $13,468,593 in tax overpayments. They elected to take $5,468,593 as a refund and apply the remaining $8 million to their 2021 estimated taxes.

Joe and Jill Biden have claimed benefits since 2008

Before running for the Senate in 1972, former President Biden worked at a few law firms, started one of his own, and managed properties on the side.

Joe Biden was born in 1942, and he and his '42 cohorts were eligible for full retirement benefits when they were 65 years and 10 months in 2008. That's also the first year the Bidens' joint tax return shows Social Security income of $6,534 (PDF). In 2023, the couple reported $64,254 in Social Security (PDF) income.

The Bidens' tax returns from 1998 through 2023 are available for review or scrutiny, depending on your political affiliation.

The Bushes and the Obamas

President Bush and President Obama were too young to collect Social Security benefits for the majority of their time in office.

George W. Bush took office in 2001 at 55 years old. He left office after serving two terms in 2009, at the age of 62. While it's possible he began claiming benefits in 2008 at age 62, the last tax return on record is for 2007, a year before he became eligible for reduced benefits. Laura Bush is a few months younger than her husband and turned 62 in November 2007. As with her husband, we have no relevant tax return to prove that she did or did not begin taking Social Security.

Barack Obama succeeded George W. Bush and also served two consecutive terms as president from 2009 until 2017. He entered office at the age of 47 and left office at the age of 56. Former First Lady Michelle Obama was even younger; she came to the White House at age 45 and left at age 53. Michelle is still too young to collect reduced benefits. She has one more year until she reaches 62.

On the other hand, although Barack Obama is still a few years shy of his full retirement age, he became eligible for reduced benefits in 2023 when he celebrated his 62nd birthday. As they left politics almost a decade ago, there are no current tax returns to examine to determine if or when the Obamas filed for retiree benefits.

Hillary and Bill Clinton did not claim benefits as of 2015

Hillary Clinton was the first lady from 1993 to 2001. She and her husband, President Bill Clinton, were too young to collect Social Security when they were in the White House.

However, the tax returns from Hillary Clinton's presidential run in 2016 provide us with insight into the Clintons' finances. As of 2015, neither Hillary nor Bill Clinton collects Social Security benefits.

Hillary Clinton turned 62 in 2009 (PDF) and hit her FRA of 66 in 2013 (PDF). Bill Clinton became eligible for reduced benefits at 62 in 2008 and reached his full retirement age of 66 in 2012. The Clintons' joint tax returns from 2008 through 2015 (PDF), when they were eligible to collect benefits, show no Social Security income.

George H.W. and Barbara Bush did not claim benefits as of 1991

George H.W. Bush became the 41st president after two terms as vice president for Ronald Reagan. Bush was eligible to start receiving reduced benefits at age 62 in 1986. He reached his full retirement age in 1989 (PDF), a year after he was elected president. There are only three joint tax returns for the Bushes, from years 1989, 1990 (PDF) and 1991 (PDF), available for inspection. Those returns show no Social Security income.

Ronald and Nancy Reagan did not claim benefits as of 1987

Former President Reagan took office in 1981, the same year he would turn 70. He could have begun claiming Social Security benefits in 1973 at age 62. His full retirement age was 65, which he hit in 1976.

Until benefits became taxable in 1984, there was no definitive way to know if someone collected benefits outside of a personal statement or admission. The only relevant tax returns available for review are 1985 (PDF), 1986 (PDF) and 1987 (PDF) None of these (joint income) returns shows any Social Security income.

The clock is ticking on the Social Security trust fund

Social Security has often been called the "third rail of politics" because attempts to tinker with benefits have been met with immediate and vocal pushback.

What are the politicians afraid of? Older Americans vote in larger numbers than any other group. In 2024, 72.1% of those ages 65 to 75 and 71.2% of those age 75 and older voted, according to the Census Bureau. These two groups turn out to vote in higher numbers than other demographics. Less than half of those age 18 to 24 voted in the 2024 election cycle.

The Social Security and Medicare trust funds are on track to become insolvent in the next decade.

If nothing changes, Social Security’s Old-Age & Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be depleted by 2033, at which point benefits would be reduced by 23%. The insolvency date for the Medicare Trust Fund has been moved by by three years to 2033. hen the trust fund is depleted, program tax income is expected to be sufficient to pay 89% of projected benefits.

It's estimated that future beneficiaries will need to save almost $150,000 to make up the shortfall if benefits are reduced.

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1. Legislative forecast

Question: Now that the House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill, when will the Senate pass it?

Joy Taylor: In the wee hours of May 22, the House passed its One Big Beautiful Bill on a 215-214 vote. The proposal would extend many of the expiring tax provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and enhance them in several instances, provide brand new tax breaks, repeal clean-energy credits for individuals and businesses, and make Medicaid cuts to offset some of the bill’s cost.

It’s now time for the Senate’s turn. And the process to passage in the upper chamber won’t be easy. Republicans senators are already saying they will make changes to the package. For example, some don’t like the extent of the Medicaid cost reductions, others want certain business tax changes to be made permanent, some oppose big cuts to clean-energy credits, and the list goes on. There is also the impact on the federal deficit. The bill is estimated to hike the deficit by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. After the Senate makes its changes, the House would then have to approve them.

Republicans are pushing to get a finished bill to President Trump by July 4, but this compressed time frame seems unlikely. A more likely scenario is for a final Senate vote by late July.

2. Impact on Muni bonds

Question: Does the House-passed tax bill make interest on state and local bonds (Munis) taxable?

Joy Taylor: No. The tax break is safe for now. Interest earned on Munis is tax-free for federal income tax purposes. Some Republicans floated the idea of repealing the interest exemption as an option for raising revenues to help offset the cost of other proposed tax relief in the bill. But a lobbying push by affected groups and industries helped to save the break. Also, states and local governments rely on Munis to fund all sorts of infrastructure projects.

3. Impact on Social Security benefits

Question: I receive Social Security benefits, and I have to pay federal income tax on a portion of the benefits. Does the House-passed bill make Social Security benefits tax-free?

Joy Taylor: Many Social Security recipients pay federal income tax on up to 85% of their benefits, depending on their provisional income. President Trump vowed to end the tax. But the process that Republican lawmakers are using to pass their bill by circumventing the 60-vote filibuster rule in the Senate won’t allow this income tax change to Social Security benefits. So the answer to your specific question is that your Social Security benefits will be taxed as usual for federal income tax purposes.

However, congressional Republicans found an alternative means of providing tax relief for seniors. The House-passed bill would give a $4,000 bonus deduction to filers who are age 65 and up. Individuals 65 and older who take the standard deduction would add the extra $4,000 to their standard deduction amounts. Married couples with both spouses who are 65 or older would be able to deduct $8,000. Filers who are 65 or older and itemize on Schedule A would also get the deduction. The proposal would first take effect on 2025 returns filed next year and end after 2028.

But not every senior would qualify for this bonus deduction. There is an income limit. The deduction would begin to phase out for taxpayers with modified adjusted gross incomes over $150,000 on joint returns and $75,000 on single and head-of-household returns.

4. Who can claim the $4,000 bonus deduction?

Question: My wife are I are both retired federal employees. We receive a Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) pension, but we do not receive Social Security benefits. Will we be able to claim the proposed $4,000 bonus deduction that is included in the House-passed bill even though we do not receive Social Security benefits?

Joy Taylor: Yes, if the One Big Beautiful Bill is eventually enacted, and you are age 65 or older, you would be able to claim the bonus $4,000 deduction (per spouse), subject to the income phaseouts discussed above. You do not have to receive Social Security benefits to take the deduction.

About Ask the Editor, Tax Edition

Subscribers of The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter can ask Joy questions about tax topics. You'll find full details of how to submit questions in The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter. (Subscribe to The Kiplinger Tax Letter or The Kiplinger Letter.)

We have already received many questions from readers on topics related to tax basis in a home, IRA contributions and distributions, and more. We’ll answer some of these in a future Ask the Editor round-up. So keep those questions coming!

Not all questions submitted will be published, and some may be condensed and/or combined with other similar questions and answers, as required editorially. The answers provided by our editors and experts, in this Q&A series, are for general informational purposes only. While we take reasonable precautions to ensure we provide accurate answers to your questions, this information does not and is not intended to, constitute independent financial, legal, or tax advice. You should not act, or refrain from acting, based on any information provided in this feature. You should consult with a financial or tax advisor regarding any questions you may have in relation to the matters discussed in this article.

More Reader Questions Answered

• Ask the Editor: Questions on capital gains
• Ask the Editor: Questions on tax deductions and losses
• Ask the Editor: Questions on 529 plans
• Ask the Editor: Questions on amended returns
• Ask the Editor: Questions on IRAs, RMDs and PTPs

Insufficient electricity, Nvidia chip shortages and tech advances hitting roadblocks are some of the potential factors that could slow down AI development. Now there’s a bigger worry: The states and how they regulate AI.

There have been hundreds of AI bills introduced in the states this year alone. These include transparency rules, consumer protections, inspections of top AI models for compliance, and efforts to promote AI adoption. Colorado was a first-mover, passing a comprehensive AI law last year that covers high-risk AI systems, discrimination and transparency.

That’s prompted an unusual idea on Capitol Hill: Block states from regulating AI for the next decade. A recent draft of the emerging Republican tax and spending bill includes the decade-long restriction, with an expansive definition of AI and few exceptions. One of the main carve-outs is allowing states to pass laws that promote AI use and adoption.

The proposal sets the stage for a fierce debate this year and beyond, even though that specific proposal is not likely to make it into law anytime soon. A moratorium would prevent states from enacting or enforcing AI-specific bills related to chatbots, social media, deepfakes, medical software and much more. Advocates for the pause say AI harms can be addressed with other state laws related to unfair or deceptive practices, consumer privacy, discrimination and more.

Many Republicans, technologists and analysts argue the U.S is at risk of choking innovation in the nascent field of generative AI. “The United States is hurtling toward a fragmented web of conflicting rules that create uncertainty, raise costs, and stifle innovation,” Hodan Omaar, senior policy manager at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in a statement. Even Colorado Governor Jared Polis, a Democrat, now favors a federal moratorium, saying the state’s law, which he signed, went too far.

Preempting state laws is nothing new for Congress and is a familiar proposal in tech policy. But doing so without a federal framework in place is a novel idea in recent times and speaks to how quickly AI is being adopted.

A moratorium provides time to write federal rules, but it’s not clear when that would happen. “In the absence of federal protections, the proposal to block state and local action on AI for the next 10 years places the development, deployment, and use of AI into a lawless and unaccountable zone,” says Travis Hall, director for state engagement at the Center for Democracy & Technology (CDT), a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit focused on digital rights.

Some analysts point to the 1990s when federal laws preempted state internet regulations to encourage growth of the emerging technology.

Bipartisan agreement is likely needed to halt the patchwork of state laws, but it’s hard to see the two parties compromising anytime soon. There’s no shortage of federal AI bills, including legislation calling for new studies, standards for disclosure and more R&D funding, with more bills on the way.

That means that tech companies, and their investors, are facing a tangled web of state regulations and compliance, which could drag on for years.

A similar state of limbo happened with state privacy laws. California’s sweeping privacy law prompted a big push for federal privacy rules that would preempt the rising patchwork of state laws. California’s law has been in effect for five years and there’s still no federal legislation in sight.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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1. The annual exclusion amount for gifts

Question: What is the annual exclusion amount for gifts made in 2025?

Joy Taylor: The annual gift tax exclusion is $19,000 per donee this year. This means in 2025, you can give up to $19,000 per person without paying federal gift tax, tapping your lifetime estate and gift tax exemption, or filing a federal gift tax return. Here’s an example. Say you have two sons and three grandchildren, and you want to gift the maximum amount to each of your relatives, including your son’s spouses, without having to file a gift tax return in 2025. The most you can give is $19,000 to each relative. That’s $133,000 in excludable gifts.

2. Gifts over the annual exclusion amount

Question: I am planning to gift my son $100,000 this year. Do I have to pay federal gift tax on this?

Joy Taylor: It is unlikely that you will have to pay any federal gift tax on this gift to your son. Although the $100,000 gift would exceed the $19,000-per-donee annual gift tax exclusion amount, you will not owe any federal gift tax, provided that your total lifetime gifts don’t exceed the lifetime estate and gift tax exemption, which for 2025 deaths is $13,990,000. You will have to file a federal gift tax return on Form 709 to report the gift to the IRS because the gift is over the $19,000 annual exclusion amount.

3. Stepped-up basis

Question: My spouse and I jointly own our home, which has substantially appreciated. How do the stepped-up basis rules work if one of us dies?

Joy Taylor: Under the tax law, a decedent’s unrealized gains aren’t hit with federal income tax at death, and heirs step up their basis in the assets they receive, equal to fair market value on death. With regards to your house, if you don’t live in a community property state, half of the home will get a step-up in basis upon the death of the first-to-die spouse. For example, let’s say you and your spouse bought a home for $100,000 many years ago, and it is worth $750,000 on the date the first of you dies. The surviving spouse’s basis in the home would be $425,000 (his or her half of the original $100,000 basis plus half of the deceased spouse’s $750,000 date-of-death value). The rules are more generous if the house is held as community property. The entire basis is stepped up to fair market value when the first spouse dies.

4. Estate taxes and the house bill

Question: Does the one big, beautiful House bill extend the larger lifetime estate tax exemption?

Joy Taylor: Currently, the federal lifetime estate and gift tax exemption for 2025 deaths is $13,990,000, and the highest estate tax rate is 40%. After 2025, the $13,900,000 figure is slated to drop to about $7 million or so unless Congress passes legislation to extend the higher amount. That is because the higher lifetime estate tax exemption is one of the provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that was made temporary.

The one big, beautiful bill passed by the House would not only make the larger lifetime estate and gift tax exemption permanent but would also increase it. If the bill is enacted, the lifetime estate and gift tax exemption amount for decedents dying in 2026 would be $15 million. And this figure would increase for inflation each year.

About Ask the Editor, Tax Edition

Subscribers of The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter can ask Joy questions about tax topics. You'll find full details of how to submit questions in The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter. (Subscribe to The Kiplinger Tax Letter or The Kiplinger Letter.)

We have already received many questions from readers on topics related to inherited IRAs, hobby losses, IRS payment letters and more. We’ll answer some of these in a future Ask the Editor round-up. So keep those questions coming!

Not all questions submitted will be published, and some may be condensed and/or combined with other similar questions and answers, as required editorially. The answers provided by our editors and experts, in this Q&A series, are for general informational purposes only. While we take reasonable precautions to ensure we provide accurate answers to your questions, this information does not and is not intended to, constitute independent financial, legal, or tax advice. You should not act, or refrain from acting, based on any information provided in this feature. You should consult with a financial or tax advisor regarding any questions you may have in relation to the matters discussed in this article.

More Reader Questions Answered

• Ask the Editor: Questions on capital gains
• Ask the Editor: Questions on tax deductions and losses
• Ask the Editor: Questions on 529 plans
• Ask the Editor: Questions on amended returns
• Ask the Editor: Questions on IRAs, RMDs and PTPs

In past years, schools have raced to adopt smartboards, laptops and learning apps. Now, artificial intelligence is the latest tech craze inspiring high hopes of improving education.

AI teacher training
Already, most teachers are being provided AI training, according to recent research by the RAND Corporation. Three-quarters of K-12 districts will have provided training on AI use by this fall, though the training varies widely and is most often optional. But not dealing with AI isn’t an option as students increasingly use AI tools, such as ChatGPT, on their own for homework and research, and the issue of AI plagiarism gets worse.

Cue a new White House initiative that aims to give K-12 students basic AI competency and to train teachers on best practices. The executive order includes a nationwide competition to highlight top AI uses, a push for public-private partnerships, and new federal funding for AI projects. There will also be a focus on apprenticeships and career options for high schoolers. The goal is to “ensure the U.S. remains a global leader in this technological revolution.”

The new federal effort aims to address one of the big current roadblocks. There is “a scarcity of external experts who are capable of providing appropriate training” for teachers, RAND found. One school leader told RAND that AI best practices simply don’t exist yet: “There are people that are claiming to have the best practices and are making money hand over fist.” The executive order aims to establish comprehensive AI teacher training and professional development.

Pushback from schools and parents
It will be a huge challenge to improve education outcomes with AI, though, as schools are tasked with adding AI in all subjects to students as young as kindergartners. Many schools are struggling to lift test scores back to pre-pandemic levels, and the adoption of AI is sure to be rocky.

Pushback from teachers and parents will be common, with worries about the risks of generative AI and the potential of it hindering learning. AI adoption could come into tension with the push to get smartphones and screens out of classrooms so kids can focus. Plus, measuring AI’s effect on educational outcomes could take years and will require careful tracking and data collection.

But there are lots of potential benefits of AI: Students can get a personalized, conversational tutor. Teachers can get help with administrative tasks, training and curriculum creation. And students graduate with in-demand AI know-how.

Education tech
The trend will open the floodgates to spending on AI education tech. There will be a shift of federal education funding and grants to all sorts of AI efforts, prompted by the recent White House action. Private organizations are likely to spend big on new AI initiatives. Meanwhile, states and local districts will budget more for AI tech. Expect some states to go all-in, while others go slow.

The new AI investment will go to large companies, such as Microsoft and Google; AI labs, such as OpenAI and Anthropic; and a range of edtech players and other start-ups.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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1. Capital gains tax rates

Reader Question: What are the federal capital gains tax rates for 2025? And what are the income cut-off points for the various rates?

Joy Taylor:
Long-term capital gains, which are profits from the sale or exchange of capital assets held for more than a year, get favorable federal tax rates. They are taxed at 0%, 15% or 20%. Prior to 2018, the determination of which rate you'd qualify for was based on your tax bracket. Through the end of 2025, the rate is based on set income thresholds, which are adjusted annually for inflation. Note that these same favorable rates also apply to qualified dividends.
For 2025, the income thresholds are:

• The 0% rate applies at taxable incomes up to $48,350 for single filers, $64,750 for head-of-household filers and $96,700 for joint filers.
• The 20% rate starts at $533,401 for single filers, $556,701 for head-of-household filers and $600,051 for joint filers.
• The 15% rate is for filers with taxable incomes between the 0% and 20% break points.

Though most long-term capital gains are taxed at the 0%, 15% or 20% rates discussed above, there are a couple of exceptions. Long-term capital gains from the sale of art, antiques, coins, historical documents and other collectibles have a 28% top rate. Depreciation recapture from real estate sales is taxed at as much as 25%. Short-term capital gains, which are profits from the sale or exchange of capital assets held for 12 months or less, are taxed at ordinary income rates.

2. The 0% tax rate

Reader Question: Can you explain how to qualify for the 0% federal tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends?

Joy Taylor:
For 2025, if taxable income other than long-term gains and dividends doesn't exceed $48,350 on single-filed returns, $64,750 on head-of-household returns or $96,700 on jointly filed returns, then qualified dividends and profits on sales of assets owned more than a year are taxed at a 0% federal income tax rate until they push you over the threshold amounts.

These figures are a bit lower for 2024 tax returns, since they are adjusted annually for inflation: $47,025 for single filers, $63,000 for head-of-households, and $94,050 for joint filers. Note that although these 0%-rate gains might not be taxed at the federal level, they do increase adjusted gross income. Also, some states tax capital gains as ordinary income.

Here are three scenarios to illustrate the 0%-rate rule. In all three scenarios, you have a married couple with $18,000 of qualified dividends and long-term capital gains in 2025, which are included in taxable income.
In the first scenario, the couple has $77,000 of taxable income.
The full $18,000 of gains and dividends is taxed at the 0% rate.
In the second scenario, the couple has taxable income of $104,000.
$10,700 of the gains and dividends ($96,700 - ($104,000 - $18,000)) gets the favorable 0% tax rate, and $7,300 is taxed at the 15% rate.
In the third scenario, the couple has $120,000 of taxable income.
The 0% rate doesn't apply, and the full $18,000 of gains and dividends is taxed at 15%.

3. Capital gains indexing

Reader Question: Is there any effort in Congress to provide some sort of inflation indexing for capital gains?

Joy Taylor
As you might be aware, the White House and congressional Republicans are negotiating a tax package that would extend the expiring provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and make some other tax changes.

There has been no talk about changing the taxation of capital gains, with one exception. Free-market groups and some Republican lawmakers would like to see capital gains indexed to inflation each year. Essentially, if this concept were enacted, taxpayers could increase their tax basis in capital assets by the rate of inflation between the purchase date and the time of sale. For example, say you bought stock in early 2010 for $10,000 and sold it in January 2024 for $35,000. Absent indexing, you would have a $25,000 long-term capital gain. With indexing, using the Chained CPI inflation measure, your basis in the stock would jump to $13,740, making your gain $21,260, thus lowering the amount of capital gain tax you would pay.

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), a long-time proponent of capital gains indexing, has introduced a bill that would allow inflation indexing for purposes of calculating a capital gain or loss. His proposal would use the gross domestic product deflator as the index for measuring inflation.

It's hard to know right now whether capital gains indexing would make it into the tax package. There are lots of complexities associated with it, including choosing the appropriate index; tax basis doesn’t remain static over time; and indexing would add to the federal debt. And we don't know where President Trump stands on the idea. During his first term as president, he was all over the board. He touted the idea several times, but then also nixed it.

About Ask the Editor, Tax Edition

Subscribers of The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter can ask Joy questions about tax topics. You'll find full details of how to submit questions in The Kiplinger Tax Letter and The Kiplinger Letter. (Subscribe to The Kiplinger Tax Letter or The Kiplinger Letter.)

We have already received many questions from readers on topics related to gifts, tax credits for installing solar panels in a home and more. We’ll answer some of these in a future Ask the Editor round-up. So keep those questions coming!

Not all questions submitted will be published, and some may be condensed and/or combined with other similar questions and answers, as required editorially. The answers provided by our editors and experts, in this Q&A series, are for general informational purposes only. While we take reasonable precautions to ensure we provide accurate answers to your questions, this information does not and is not intended to, constitute independent financial, legal, or tax advice. You should not act, or refrain from acting, based on any information provided in this feature. You should consult with a financial or tax advisor regarding any questions you may have in relation to the matters discussed in this article.

More Reader Questions Answered

• Ask the Editor, May 23, 2025: Gifts, Estate Tax
• Ask the Editor, May 4, 2025: Tax deductions and losses
• Ask the Editor, April 25, 2025: 529 plans.
• Ask the Editor, April 18, 2025: Amended returns.
• Ask the Editor, April 11, 2025: IRAs, RMDs and PTPs.
• Ask the Editor, April 4, 2025: The new tax bill, estate tax, and muni bonds.

Taxpayers haven't yet felt the full effects from all the turmoil at the agency. The 2025 filing season has progressed smoothly, and tax refunds haven't been delayed.

But just wait, experts tell us. It will take time for all the agency cuts to be felt by people outside the IRS, including taxpayers and the tax preparer community. Yes, more complex audits will decline. But that means the IRS will focus on the low-hanging fruit, exams that agents conduct solely through correspondence. But good luck in getting a reply to correspondence that you send to the IRS, even if your letter is in reply to an IRS notice. Taxpayer assistance will also suffer, including the phone lines.

Let's delve into some of the reasons for all the chaos.

1. Who's in charge?

The IRS is on its fifth commissioner since January 1. Danny Werfel, the former official IRS commissioner, resigned soon after President Trump's inauguration. Doug O'Donnell served as acting head for a month. Melanie Krause took over, but then opted to resign after the IRS entered into a controversial agreement with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to purportedly share information on suspected illegals. Gary Shapley, a former IRS criminal investigator who alleged that the IRS wrongly handled its probe of Hunter Biden, was chosen by Elon Musk to lead the IRS. But Shapley was replaced after two days, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complained to Trump that Musk installed Shapley as head of the agency without Bessent's knowledge. The new acting head of the IRS is now Michael Faulkender, who will help lead the agency while also handling his principal job duties as deputy secretary of the Treasury.

In addition to the people serving as acting IRS commissioner, there have been other high-level IRS officials who have also left the agency or have announced their departures. They include the chief information officer, the chief taxpayer compliance officer, the chief privacy officer, the chief transformation and strategy officer, the chief implementation officer and many more.

Meanwhile, former Republican congressman Billy Long, Trump's official pick for IRS commissioner, is on the sidelines. Long is now an advisor with the Office of Personnel Management while he awaits his Senate confirmation hearing.

Unlike previous commissioners, Long isn’t a lawyer or an experienced tax pro, nor has he run a large company or government agency. And he’s not a management and budget expert. Long was a congressman from Missouri. He was also an auctioneer, real estate agent and lobbyist. And he recently worked in the tax field promoting the employee retention credit (ERC), the COVID-19-related payroll tax break that the IRS claims is rife with fraud. Long could possibly face stiff opposition in his Senate confirmation hearing because of his ties to companies touting ERC refunds.

2. Staff layoffs and departures

The IRS is bleeding staff through deferred resignation programs and layoffs. On January 1, the IRS had about 100,000 employees. 11,000 people were either terminated or took the government's first deferred resignation offer in February and March. Another 22,000 or so accepted the government's second deferred resignation offer in April, and many of these workers have already left the agency or will be gone by May or June at the latest. And even more widespread layoffs or reductions in force are expected to take place.

All aspects of the IRS will be impacted, including enforcement, chief counsel, appeals, forms, taxpayer service, criminal investigation, and computer and database modernization. Many of the IRS workers who took the deferred resignation offers are near or at retirement age. The loss of experience and know-how will be hard to replenish with those who remain.

3. Data sharing agreement with ICE

The IRS's decision to share data with ICE doesn't sit well with many people at the IRS. We said previously that this is what eventually led to acting commissioner Melanie Krause's departure from the IRS. Under the pact, ICE would give the IRS the names and addresses of individuals suspected of being in the country illegally, and the IRS would use its locations database to confirm that information or provide updated addresses.

Critics say that this agreement violates the federal statute that generally prevents the IRS from disclosing taxpayer information. An IRS attorney, who was the agency's subject matter expert on the federal statute banning disclosure of taxpayer data, left the IRS shortly after the ICE agreement was finalized. Tax experts also say that this agreement will lead to fewer tax return filings by immigrants, who are afraid that their identities will be disclosed to ICE. In the past, the IRS encouraged tax return filing by immigrants by promising not to share their information.

4. IRS modernization efforts halted

The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act gave the IRS a lot of money over a 10-year time span to be used for bolstering enforcement and taxpayer service and for modernizing the IRS's antiquated databases and other IT systems. The IRS used a portion of that money to develop the Direct File program, create online taxpayer accounts, provide new computers to employees, and modernize its case management systems, among other things. Congress has clawed back much of the IRS's Inflation Reduction Act money.

Since then, Congress has allocated zero dollars to the agency for modernization, and DOGE has come into the IRS and generally paused the agency's modernization efforts. (We were told that DOGE did a one-week "hackathon" on the IRS's databases.)

Some tax experts view DOGE as wanting to trade people for time- and cost-saving technology. But, with no money at the IRS to improve technology, and the IRS's employees leaving in droves, how does this actually work in the short run and the long run?

5. A crackdown on regulations

President Trump's regulatory crackdown is shaking up the IRS. One of Trump's executive orders imposed a temporary halt on new regulations to give his administration time to vet them and decide which ones to keep or toss. Trump ordered that 10 existing regulations be wiped away for each one added. And he has reintroduced a rule from his first term that any proposed tax regulations undergo an extra layer of review by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, a department that is within the White House Office of Management and Budget. Not all regulations will be affected. For example, routine IRS guidance should be protected. But many rules will be impacted.

The IRS is now reviewing old regulations to comply with Trump's executive order to reduce the volume of agency guidance. And the agency is asking the tax community for suggestions on regulations that should be scaled back.

6. IRS's Direct File program

The Trump administration is talking about ending the IRS's Direct File program. This free, voluntary program, which the IRS first piloted last year and expanded this year, allows eligible individuals who live in one of 25 states to opt in and, with the IRS's help, to prepare and electronically file their Form 1040s at no cost using a smartphone, laptop or other device.

Republican lawmakers and conservative-leaning organizations generally oppose Direct File, but the Trump administration chose to let it remain in place for the 2025 return filing season. Advocates for keeping Direct File say it's a free, simple, time-saving tax preparation tool. Naysayers say it is a failed program that wastes resources, and that the IRS can use it to hound taxpayers.

One thing is for certain: Putting an end to Direct File would certainly benefit tax software companies, which see Direct File as competition and have lobbied hard to get rid of this free efiling program.

Is IRS playing politics?

Trump's demand for the IRS to revoke Harvard's tax exemption is causing angst among taxpayers, long-time IRS observers, and left-leaning exempt organizations that might also see their exemption under threat.

Similar to most private colleges and universities, Harvard has 501(c)(3) tax exemption, which means donors can get tax write-offs on their tax returns for donating to the school. There are also other tax advantages to having a 501(c)(3) exemption.

The Trump administration is singling out Harvard, alleging the university is not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism on its campus, among other things. After Harvard rejected a wide slate of White House demands, Trump apparently asked the IRS to look into terminating the university's federal tax exemption. He also said on social media that "We are going to be taking away Harvard’s Tax Exempt Status. It’s what they deserve!" Revoking a university's tax exemption is rare. It's happened only once or twice before.

And it's not just Harvard. Other groups could be on the hot seat. Princeton, Columbia, and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington have been noted by Trump as groups that IRS exempt-organization lawyers should keep a close eye on.

Opponents argue that the IRS would be playing politics if it starts down this path of attempting to revoke tax exemption from organizations that Trump doesn't like. They say that what Trump and other Republicans now want to do is not so different from, and may even be worse than, when the IRS last got caught playing politics. In 2013, the IRS got into trouble with Republican lawmakers for improperly targeting mainly conservative groups that were seeking 501(c)(4) tax-exempt status as social welfare organizations.

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At the 100-day mark of his presidency, Donald Trump is back in a familiar place. His popularity is waning, as it was in his first term. And his policy agenda faces major obstacles, including legal challenges and legislative inaction.

Trump’s approval rating is currently 45%, on average, with a 52% disapproval rating. On the one hand, the president’s numbers are better than at this point in his first term. On the other, he is under water on every major issue, including the economy, where 42% of voters approve of his job performance and roughly 55% disapprove. Even immigration, once Trump’s lone bright spot, has become a political minefield for the president.

And he’s lost ground with key demographics, most notably Hispanics, who were crucial to his win in the 2024 election. The president’s approval rating with them is falling faster than with voters overall.

Economy and trade
There’s still time for Trump to right the ship. His resolve on issues like tariffs has started to weaken in response to both corporate and popular backlash, although he has resisted calls to abandon them.

The key difference now is that the economy has become a political headwind, instead of the tailwind that it was in his first term. That’s bad news for a president whose party was already at risk of losing control of the House in next year’s midterms, and it ups the pressure on congressional Republicans to get something done ASAP.

Trade is the president’s one priority where he has far-reaching authority — but it is also his greatest potential vulnerability. The most painful effects of the tariffs that Trump enacted are not expected to set in until later this year. Plus, the administration is struggling to strike deals with major trading partners.

Immigration and government efficiency
Two of the president’s other big priorities continue to be mired in lawsuits: Immigration, where attempts to dramatically increase executive power on deportations have been rebuffed by the judiciary, including the Supreme Court. And shrinking the federal government.

Leading Trump adviser Elon Musk is stepping back from his role as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which so far claims to have saved $160 billion, though many of these savings have been called into question. The administration has shed 121,000 workers via firings and layoffs, and encouraged others to leave through voluntary buyouts, though reduction-in-force plans at federal agencies keep hitting legal roadblocks.

Tax and spending cuts
As always, the path to lasting achievements likely runs through Congress, where Republicans are struggling to reach an agreement on both the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts and the spending cuts to pay for them. Their deadline has already slipped, from Memorial Day to July 4. Trump needs them to get moving.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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“The decision of whether to run for re-election has not been easy. I truly love the job of being a United States Senator. But in my heart, I know it’s time to pass the torch,” he said in a video posted on the social media platform X.

Durbin advocated for immigration reform, the Affordable Care Act, a ban on indoor smoking

Durbin was first elected to Congress in 1982 and has served in the Senate since January 3, 1997. During his tenure as Senate Democratic whip, Durbin was an advocate of immigration reform and a defender of "dreamers." He helped pass the Affordable Care Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, COVID-19 relief and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Durbin is also recognized for launching the movement to ban indoor smoking, which can be traced backed to his 53-year-old father dying of lung cancer when he was 14.

“People started asking, ‘If secondhand smoke wasn’t safe on airplanes, why is it safe in public buildings, schools, hospitals, or restaurants?’ The answer is simple: It’s not,” Durbin said on the 25th anniversary of the law.

Durbin's time on the Senate Judiciary Committee

Durbin served as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he is currently the ranking member. During his tenure as chairman, he helped President Joe Biden secure the confirmation of 235 appointments to the federal judiciary, including the confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court.

Durbin's background and jobs before Congress

Born in 1944 in East St. Louis, Illinois, to immigrant parents, Durbin graduated from the undergraduate program in 1966 and law school at Georgetown University in Washington in 1969, and interned for former Sen. Paul Douglas (D-Ill.). He held multiple roles in Illinois politics, including a term as counsel to former Lt. Gov. Paul Simon.

Durbin as a figure in Illinois politics and the national stage

“As an Illinois voter, I couldn’t be prouder that our senator for the last 28 years has been one of the finest in the country," former President Barack Obama, who served alongside Durbin in the Senate, wrote on X. “Dick Durbin has always fought the good fight on behalf of working families, and his integrity shines through in everything he does. It’s also true that I would not have been a United States Senator – and certainly would not have been President – had it not been for Dick’s support.”

Those who could run for Durbin’s seat include former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). Upon Durbin’s retirement, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) will be the senior senator from Illinois.

Durbin's time in public office

January 1983 – January 1997, U.S. House of Representatives.
January. 1997 – Present, U.S. Senate

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How precisely will tariffs affect the economy? The overall impact depends on whether President Trump continues to ease the duties he initially introduced or decides to pursue his original, aggressive approach. But some specific effects are already coming into focus.

U.S. trade with China will be up-ended, since Trump has imposed far higher tariffs on Chinese imports than the 10% rate he has applied to most countries’ imports while he seeks trade deals on a country-by-country basis. Despite exemptions from the highest duties for imported electronics from China, the two countries are effectively at war when it comes to trade.

Beijing responded to Trump with steep levies of its own on virtually all U.S. goods. China accounts for 13% of America’s imports. That’s down from 21% in 2018 but still hefty: $439 billion in imports last year.

Let’s look at how that huge sum breaks down by product type:

• $124 billion in Chinese electronics — again, temporarily exempt from the highest new U.S. duties.
• $94 billion in machinery and instruments.
• $37 billion in clothing.
• $30 billion in toys.
• Plus $19 billion in plastic products.
• $19 billion in furniture and home furnishings.
• $16 billion in base and fabricated metals.
• Another $100 billion in miscellaneous goods.

Consumers will see many low-cost Chinese goods disappear from shelves, since many have thin profit margins and can’t be imported profitably anymore.

Multinational companies will need time to move production out of China when it comes to consumer goods that are no longer viable to export to the U.S. For instance, one city in China produces a third of the global production of socks. Moving production of low-cost goods back to the U.S. seems unlikely, despite the administration’s reshoring goals — U.S. wages are prohibitively high for that sort of low-skill labor. Manufacturing jobs here are high-wage and high-skill.

The U.S. industries most dependent on imports, from China and elsewhere: Petroleum, chemicals, autos, electronics, machinery, metals, electric gear, aviation and appliances. Each imports at least 20% of the parts and materials that they need to make their products.

About 10% of building materials are imported, though the figure is higher for home appliances, lighting, HVAC and plumbing materials.

China’s retaliation will especially target two U.S. sectors: Farming and tech.

Beijing is curtailing all exports of certain rare earth minerals, which are key to high-tech sectors like semiconductors, aviation, robotics, defense and telecom.

Chinese tariffs figure to cost American farmers access to a massive market. Farm goods comprise 8% of America’s total exports, and China’s leaders understand how politically sensitive U.S. presidents are to pain inflicted on the farm economy.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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On one side, President Donald Trump is demanding that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. On the other hand, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is taking a wait-and-see approach to how the economic situation will play out.

However, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said the Fed might consider rate cuts soon. The reason? A slowing labor market. And one way to bolster job growth is through rate cuts, since it makes borrowing costs cheaper for companies.

Another development is also at work: Trump announced he fired Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. We'll cover how this could impact Fed policy moving forward and what this means for your savings and mortgage rates.

Can Trump fire Fed members?

As things stand, technically, no, he cannot. As Powell said, Federal Reserve governors are "not removable except for cause." And since the tug of war started, Trump has backed off from firing Powell, instead looking for replacements for when Powell's term ends in May of 2026.

However, Trump just fired Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. On Truth Social, Trump noted that the reason for Cook's firing was due to her allegedly making false claims on her mortgage applications.

Cook responded to Trump, “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so.”

She added, “I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.” She will likely appeal this ruling to the federal court.

If Trump removes Fed members, how does it impact savings accounts?

It's no secret that Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut rates. If he's able to add more members who are favorable to his policy, he might be able to tip the scales in his favor.

The Federal Open Market Committee has 12 voting members. At its July meeting, there were two dissenting votes for the Fed to hold rates steady. Those two votes came from Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both appointed by Trump.

Rate cuts appear to be gaining momentum, regardless of the ongoing policy tug of war. CME FedWatch indicates an 88% chance of rate cuts at the September meeting.

When rate cuts happen, they lower the rates of return savers receive on high-yield savings accounts, CDs and money market accounts.

However, the influence of rate cuts on each savings vehicle differs. Both high-yield savings accounts and money market accounts feature variable interest rates. That means if the Fed cuts rates in the future, the rates you currently have will drop.

But CDs offer some protection from rate cuts. The rate you lock in is the rate you'll receive throughout the term of the CD.

You can find some of the best CD rates here:

How rate cuts impact mortgages

One of the benefits of rate cuts is that they can lower borrowing costs, including for mortgages. However, while the Fed's decision can influence mortgage rates, other variables also play a role, such as inflation, supply and demand, and, most importantly, the 10-year Treasury yield.

The Treasury yield is the rate at which the government borrows money for a decade. When the yield rises, the borrowing costs of the government increase, too. The 10-year Treasury yield is of high concern now because of its role as an economic indicator.

However, there could be a situation that unfolds where, if the Fed is on shaky ground with investors, they might demand a higher yield on bonds, which could raise mortgage rates.

If you're looking to buy a home soon, your best hope is to shop around for the most affordable rates. Remember, the Fed cut rates three times to end 2024, and mortgage rates didn't follow suit. Using this Bankrate tool helps do some of the homework for you:

The bottom line on Fed rate cuts

While it's hard to see what the future holds, it's clear there will be an eventual future with more Trump appointees in the Federal Reserve.

That, on its own, won't guarantee rate cuts. However, many economists project that a rate cut might happen this fall due to slowing job growth. Therefore, now marks an excellent time to secure higher rates of return on savings accounts or CDs before rate cuts happen.

And as always, the best time to get a mortgage is when you need one, and you can plan to refinance in the future — but make sure to shop around first.

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The steepest tariffs are on hold, for now. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief. But a new U.S. trade regime is still here, with broad 10% duties on imported goods, higher for cars and key metals. And most importantly, the trade war with China is escalating.

President Trump seems to have pulled back from his plan to levy higher tariff levels on a country-by-country basis, despite avowals from some of his advisors that these were not up for negotiation. Turmoil in financial markets, particularly the bond market, may have prodded him to think again. Instead, he says the individual rates are delayed 90 days while the U.S. seeks trade deals with individual countries.

The one glaring exception: Tariffs on China are soaring to 145%, even higher than Trump first announced. Beijing had hit back at Washington with its own, higher rates, so Trump is singling out China as a special case.

Amid the chaos, here are our takeaways:

• The 90-day pause could become permanent when it comes to higher, country-specific duties. Trump had been playing hardball, threatening rates as high as 50%, to induce trade partners to do more than lower rates on U.S. goods. He wanted them to vow to buy more American goods, build factories in the U.S. or take other steps to narrow the trade surpluses many run with us. But those concessions could be very hard to get, and meanwhile, financial markets were panicking about the potential damage to the economy. Trump relented, it seems, opting for a 10% flat rate and time to get trade partners to curb duties on U.S. goods.
• Trump is likely to get some concessions he can tout in the coming months. But he will probably settle for less than he wanted on “buy U.S.” promises.
• When it comes to China, there is little sign of any reconciliation. Beijing can’t be seen to be submitting to Trump, even if sky-high U.S. tariffs cost it dearly. We could be entering a trade cold war, featuring two rival superpowers, and smaller countries having to choose whether to align with the U.S. or China.
• Trade with Canada and Mexico — two key trade partners — is up in the air. Trump’s earlier 25% duties remain in place for goods that don’t comply with the three countries’ free-trade pact, which is up for renegotiation next year.
• On the economic front, we see GDP growth slowing and inflation rising as a result of the 10% blanket tariffs, plus higher duties on cars, metals, etc. GDP will eke out a small gain, while inflation could hit 4%. That puts the Federal Reserve in a bind, forcing it to choose whether to cut rates to boost growth but fan inflation. We suspect the Fed will stand pat at its May meeting, but cut rates later in the year.
• On stocks: Expect continued volatility. Don’t panic-sell, but caution is essential now

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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A 25% tariff on imported automobile parts went into effect May 3, joining a 25% tariff on imported cars that went into effect in April. The tariffs will create burdens of at least $2,000 per car, according to Anderson Economic Group, and car buyers are likely soon to see that ripple effect.

Shortly after those tariffs went into effect, it was reported that Ford is raising prices on its cars, including popular models. The reported price hikes are hitting models made in Mexico, with increases up to $2,000 per model — a good example of what many car companies are likely to do if the tariffs are not cancelled or substantially reduced.

Take a look at what you might see at the dealer in the near future.

Is there a truly American car?

To understand the impact of tariffs on car manufacturing, it’s important to realize that there is no such thing as a truly “American” car.

Ford, GM and the U.S. brands under the Stellantis umbrella, such as Jeep, Ram and Dodge, assemble many but not all of their vehicles in U.S. plants. GM, for instance, imports many of its popular Silverado pickup trucks from Mexico. And even cars assembled in, say, Michigan are full of parts and materials that originated outside of the U.S.

Likewise, many Asian and European brands assemble vehicles in the U.S., particularly in plants located in the South. But again, they rely on a complicated mix of domestic and imported parts and materials. Some automotive parts cross a border multiple times before ending up in a fully assembled car that’s ready to hit a dealer’s showroom.

Auto tariffs and their impact

President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on auto imports, including imported parts that don’t comply with the rules of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade pact he negotiated in his first term, are already starting to raise prices on cars for sale on lots now, according to anecdotal accounts.

Other tariffs, such as those on imported steel and aluminum — two key car-making materials — are bound to push up manufacturers’ costs, too.

Trump announced the auto tariffs in late March, calling them "permanent." He did, however, make some amendments to the tariffs to create some carve-outs and give businesses time to adjust.

Estimates of how much more cars will cost vary, but the consensus among forecasters is that the impact will be painful.

How much will tariffs raise new car prices?

The staff of The Kiplinger Letter estimates that new car prices will rise by $5,000 to $10,000 in the case of foreign brands, and $3,000 for domestic vehicles.

In an analysis of the car-specific tariffs last month, Edmunds.com head of insights Jessica Caldwell noted that “it’s reasonable to expect that vehicle prices will rise, which presents an added challenge to an industry that is already grappling with ongoing affordability concerns.” Edmunds' data show that the average transaction price of a new vehicle in February was already $47,373, before any tariffs began.

Vehicle availability also figures to worsen, as some key components or materials that used to be imported become prohibitively expensive and manufacturers struggle to line up domestically sourced replacements.

One source at a major automotive supplier tells the Letter that identifying and testing vehicle parts from a new supplier can be a months-long process. And as we witnessed recently with the semiconductor shortage, lacking even one or two components can slow or idle assembly lines, leading to shortages of new cars for sale.

Will used car prices go up because of tariffs?

Price hikes and less inventory may push would-be buyers to look at the used market instead of buying a new car. That in turn spells higher prices and more competition there, too.

Because of the supply chain problems that hampered production of new cars a few years ago, fewer vehicles were leased at the time, and so fewer lightly used, high-quality leased vehicles will be entering the used market now, just as more shoppers will be jockeying for them.

What other car costs could rise with tariffs?

Even if you aren’t planning to buy a car – new or used – what happens on dealer lots is likely to affect you in other ways. For instance, the new tariffs on imported parts are going to push up repair and maintenance costs for all drivers, on everything from body work to routine brake jobs.

Car insurance premiums, which are already way up since the pandemic, figure to rise more, too, as repairing cars gets more expensive. Read more about by how much auto tariffs may raise your car insurance rates.

And even if you don’t own a car, but rent one when you travel, you can expect higher rental rates and fewer options at rental agencies.

Should you buy a car before tariffs have a bigger impact?

The bottom line: If you’re in the market for a car, already own one or ever plan to rent one, you’re going to pay for the new automotive tariffs one way or another.

But before you rush to the dealer before tariffs reverberate, keep in mind it's always best to buy a car because you need it, not because you're afraid the car you want could become too expensive in the future or unavailable altogether.

Even before the new tariffs, prices were already high and inventories were limited, so it paid to be flexible about what to buy — and what features you really prioritize. That will be even more true now as the auto tariffs affect the market.

Don't let fear pressure you into buying. Focus on your personal situation, whether you need a new car, and what you really need from that car.

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On Tax Day, April 15, Trump posted the following on his social media platform, Truth Social:

"Perhaps Harvard should lose its Tax Exempt Status and be Taxed as a Political Entity if it keeps pushing political, ideological, and terrorist inspired/supporting 'Sickness?' … Tax Exempt Status is totally contingent on acting in the PUBLIC INTEREST!"

The post came after Harvard refused to comply with the administration's unprecedented demands to exert control over the private university’s hiring, student body, policies, and procedures.

Not long after, Trump called Harvard a "joke," and various outlets are now reporting that the IRS is looking into rescinding Harvard's tax-exempt status. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), led by Secretary Kristi Noem, announced it may remove the university's ability to enroll foreign students.

Then on May 2, Trump posted the following on Truth Social: "We are going to be taking away Harvard's Tax Exempt Status. It's what they deserve!"

At first glance, the drama seems to center on the nation’s oldest and wealthiest university, so the response might be: Who cares? But it's worth noting that the tax and legal stakes could ripple far beyond Harvard Yard.

Here’s how this escalating dispute could ultimately matter for you or someone you know.

Trump and Harvard University: What’s the issue?

The conflict began when the Trump administration issued a list of demands to Harvard, including changes to hiring, admissions, and academic programming.

The administration framed those demands as efforts to address concerns about campus antisemitism and what it described as “radical” or “political” ideologies.

• More specifically, the Trump administration insisted that Harvard end all diversity and inclusion programs in hiring and admissions and replace them with strictly merit-based criteria.
• They required detailed demographic data for federal audits and called for external reviews to ensure ideological balance among faculty and students.
• Additionally, the administration sought stricter screening of international students for “anti-American” views and ordered reporting of certain student protests.

Harvard rejected those demands as unlawful and an unacceptable intrusion into university governance.

In response, the Trump administration froze more than $2 billion in federal funding to the university. Later, as mentioned, Trump publicly threatened to challenge Harvard’s tax-exempt status if the university didn’t comply.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday, “Trump wants to see Harvard apologize.”

Meanwhile, in a statement posted on X, former President Barack Obama said:

"Harvard has set an example for other higher-ed institutions — rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt to stifle academic freedom, while taking concrete steps to make sure all students at Harvard can benefit from an environment of intellectual inquiry, rigorous debate and mutual respect, adding " "Let's hope other institutions follow suit."

Note: On April 21, Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration challenging its freeze of over $2.2 billion in federal research grants.

The university argues that the suspension of funding violates the U.S. Constitution and various federal laws and jeopardizes critical research, while unlawfully targeting academic autonomy.

Why is Harvard tax-exempt?

Many universities in the United States, including Harvard, are recognized as nonprofit organizations under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. That nonprofit status exempts organizations that hold the designation from federal income tax and allows them to receive tax-deductible charitable donations.

With its approximate $53 billion endowment as of 2024, Harvard's tax exemption is worth billions over time in saved taxes and continued philanthropic support. According to the university, nearly 70% of those funds are earmarked by donors for particular departments or initiatives. So, Harvard cannot simply redirect the funds to cover gaps from lost federal funding.

Note: Harvard's endowment has helped fund critical initiatives, including groundbreaking research in areas like public health (including research on cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, strokes, and HIV) and climate change.

Revoking that status could have significant financial consequences.

• For example, donations could become less attractive to potential donors, since contributions might not be tax-deductible.
• The university’s endowment income could be subject to federal taxes, reducing funds available for scholarships, critical research, and operations.
• A Bloomberg News analysis estimates Harvard’s annual tax bill could top $465 million if the exemption were lost.

The Trump administration has questioned why taxpayers should subsidize wealthy institutions that are accused of failing to protect all students.

The IRS is reportedly planning to revoke the university's tax exemption, a process that some past agency officials say would, under more normal circumstances, be long and involve an audit. And, as mentioned, Trump recently seemed to confirm plans to strip the university of its tax-exempt status in a post on Truth Social.

Some critics, however, warn that the administration is using last year’s protests over the war in Gaza and the antisemitism seen on some campuses as a pretext, and that using tax policy to target perceived political adversaries undermines the tax system.

Harvard’s leadership also argues that government interference in academic decisions threatens the core values of higher education.

“No government — regardless of which party is in power — should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue,” Harvard president Alan Garber stated in a letter to the Harvard community.

It's Harvard tax: Who cares?

This may seem like just more noise and another tax dispute involving a wealthy institution that doesn’t matter. However, the real stakes could extend beyond Harvard’s campus.

If the U.S. government begins to use tax-exempt status as a political tool, it could have a chilling effect on the nonprofit sector.

• For instance, organizations might feel forced to self-censor or avoid controversial issues out of fear that their tax status could be revoked if those in power deem their activities or speech inconvenient.
• That could undermine many nonprofits' core purpose of serving the public interest. In some cases, that includes advocating for change and open debate.

Many in higher education worry that if the Trump administration and the IRS were to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, it could chill academic freedom and institutional autonomy. Other colleges and universities could feel pressured to align with the political preferences of whichever party holds power.

Earlier this year, Columbia University reportedly agreed to several demands of the Trump administration in a negotiation over the school's federal funding.

Although the university's president has reportedly said the school won't enter into an agreement with the federal government that would "require us to relinquish our independence and autonomy as an educational institution."

Additionally, losing tax-exempt status or federal funding could force cuts to financial aid, research, and public service programs. That could ultimately affect students and communities nationwide.

And last but not least, there are legal and constitutional implications.

While the IRS is tasked with upholding the rules governing tax-exempt organizations (the President cannot unilaterally revoke that status), wielding tax status as a punitive or political tool raises concerns about executive overreach and free speech.

Some see the Trump-Harvard dispute over tax-exempt status as part of a broader pattern of the Trump administration using federal agencies to pressure institutions that resist its policy goals.

For example, in a separate move, the administration has pushed for the IRS to share confidential taxpayer data with ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to aid in deportation efforts, raising privacy concerns and prompting resignations among IRS officials.

Critics argue that the Harvard tax exemption and the IRS-ICE data-sharing agreement reflect the Trump administration's willingness to use federal government powers in unprecedented ways, with consequences beyond the immediate targets.

Harvard vs Trump: Bottom line

In this instance, tax law requires that tax-exempt status be based on clear, objective criteria — like the organization’s purpose and activities — not political disagreements or policy disputes.

And while the immediate tax issue involves Harvard and the Trump administration, the underlying questions are more universal.

How should the government regulate and oversee nonprofit organizations? Should political considerations influence tax policy? And how can we protect the independence of institutions that serve the public good? What about free speech?

Those questions will likely have to be answered eventually by the U.S. Supreme Court. Though we’re not there yet, neither side seems willing to back down.

If the IRS revokes Harvard's tax-exempt status, a visit to the U.S. Tax Court would be next.

This is a developing story, so stay tuned.

This article has been updated to include recent developments regarding Harvard's lawsuit against the Trump administration and Trump's latest posts regarding Harvard's tax-exempt status.

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His comments come both online — he posted an essay to X, formerly known as Twitter, last week — and on television, as he spoke to NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday. The 75-year-old has called on his listeners to look beyond the immediate shock of President Donald Trump's tariff announcements and see underlying factors that indicate instability.

"The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders," Dalio wrote in his post on X. "This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place."

Dalio's predictions for the future and analysis of the present

Specifically, Dalio wrote, unsustainable conditions are a breaking down of...

• ...the "monetary/economic order" as a result of "too much existing debt" (i.e. the U.S. borrowing from China)
• ...political order due to rising inequities in opportunity and education
• ...geopolitical world order as the U.S. shifts to an "America-first" mentality

...as well as disruptive acts of nature, like floods and pandemics, and disruptive technology like AI.

Rather than looking at tariffs or Trump's election in a vacuum, he argues, it's part of a larger overall cycle in power and order (he explains the cycle concept further in his 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order).

David Payne, staff economist for The Kiplinger Letter, has a more measured take in response to Dalio: "Yes, these are concerns. Yes, Trump is accelerating some of these issues. But doomsday predictions tend to undervalue strengths, such as the productiveness of the capitalist system and the U.S. economy."

Following up on his writing, Dalio said on Meet the Press he is "worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well." The billionaire, who said during the 2024 election the country needed a more moderate leader than either candidate, said the U.S. should cut the federal deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, or otherwise "we're going to have a supply-demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems, and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession."

Particularly last week as the stock market reacted to Trump's tariff announcement, experts said a recession is increasingly likely in the face of economic and market disruptions caused by Trump's trade stances.

"Worse than a recession" to Dalio could mean a devaluation of money, internal conflict threatening democracy, and international conflict that could turn violent. He referred to our current situation and its combination of factors, which he called "a decision-making point," as "very much like the 1930s."

Dalio's past thoughts on politics and Trump

These are not particularly new comments for the hedge fund powerhouse. During the 2024 presidential election, Dalio also expressed concerns for the future of the U.S.

While he refused to endorse either candidate, calling it in a Time essay a "choice between a strong, unethical, almost fascist Republican Party and a frail, untruthful, and enigmatic Democratic Party," he did say he was worried democracy would be at risk if Trump were to lose but reject the results.

Speaking more broadly, he told BBC last September: "This reminds me of the 1930 to 45 period in which there was an economic crisis followed by democracies becoming dictatorships. Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan had parliamentary systems, and they broke down in terms of internal conflict between the the hard left, the hard right, communism and fascism. We are today seeing modern day versions of some of these things."

Payne, the Kiplinger Letter staff economist, also sees echoes of the past, but with more optimism than Dalio.

"Adjustments will be made, and perhaps some GDP growth points foregone, but we've muddled through crises before," Payne said. He pointed to the tumult of the 1960s-70s between war, Nixon's resignation, gas prices and social change.

"The stock market was moribund for a long time," Payne continued. "But the turbulence subsided in the '80s, and technological progress continued, setting the stage for the growth surge of the '90s. Of course, some of that growth surge was the result of globalization, which has begun to reverse, but there is a still a lot of promising tech out there."

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• Is the Economy at Risk of a Recession Because of Tariffs? What the Experts Are Saying

Prepare for slower growth and higher inflation as the president seeks to revise the global trade system through sweeping tariffs on virtually all U.S. imports. He is promising short-term pain for long-term gain. We agree on the short term. The long term is murkier. Given the highest U.S. tariffs in a century:

Prices of many goods will turn higher. Sellers of imported goods will absorb some of the new duties and pass along the rest to their overseas suppliers and to U.S. consumers. The exact breakdown will vary by product and industry, but the trend is inflationary.

Overall inflation could hit 5% by year-end, up from 2.8% in February, but not as bad as the 9% peak that the economy endured in 2022. Still, for businesses and consumers alike, steeper price hikes will hurt.

Spending will suffer, at the retail level because shoppers’ dollars won’t stretch as far now, and among businesses because of the uncertainty about how long the tariffs will last. The White House wants companies to invest in new manufacturing here. Some will — indeed, some already are — but other firms are likely to hold off. Building new factories is costly and can take years, a major risk if tariffs then get reversed by Trump or his successor.

Recession doesn’t appear imminent. But there is a real threat of stagflation — the dreaded combo of slow growth and stubbornly high inflation, last seen in the 70s. Of course, the exact impact of the new tariffs depends on reactions to them.

Trade partners must decide whether to negotiate, stand pat or push back. We expect a mix of reactions there.

• China will almost certainly retaliate. It faces the highest combined duties, well over 50%. And while the U.S. is a key market that China can ill afford to lose, Beijing also can’t afford to appear cowed by Trump. Look for it to respond by targeting sensitive U.S. products, especially foodstuffs.
• The European Union may well also push back as it faces 20% U.S. duties.
• For now, Australia, India and possibly the U.K. appear unlikely to retaliate.
• Smaller countries facing steep tariffs may have no choice but to negotiate by dropping their own duties on U.S. goods. Vietnam, for instance, depends heavily on exports to the U.S., and now faces a punishing 46% rate. That may be unbearable.
• Mexico and Canada, spared new duties, may also look to make deals. USMCA, the free-trade pact Trump made with them in his first term, is up for renewal in 2026. He appears open to extending it if he gets concessions on migration and other issues.

The big question: Will Trump succeed and bring back U.S. manufacturing?
He is determined to try. But there are limits to what any president can do. Consumers are also voters, and even voters who support him may blanch at the cost tariffs will add to what they buy. Some foreign leaders will bet we can’t take the pain.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Beginning Monday, March 31, Booker vowed to speak "as long as I am physically able," using the platform to protest policies enacted under President Donald Trump since January.

The speech, which Sen. Booker initially described as disrupting "normal business" in the Senate, was not tied to any specific legislation, so technically, some say it wasn't a filibuster. However, the speech was designed to highlight what Booker calls a crisis in the nation’s values and priorities.

“I rise tonight because I believe sincerely that our country is in crisis,” Booker said.

Booker’s remarks, which broke the record for the longest speech in Senate history, covered many issues, including healthcare, public education, immigration, and key programs, including Medicaid and Social Security.

Cory Booker live

Sen. Booker accused the Trump administration of attempting to dismantle those programs under the guise of eliminating “waste, fraud, and abuse.” “Americans from all walks of life are enduring unnecessary struggles,” Booker said.

Booker highlighted some of Trump's proposals, like plans to annex Greenland and Canada, as reckless, and condemned Trump’s use of emergency declarations to justify tariffs on Canada.

Immigration policies also came under scrutiny, with Booker pointing out the harsh impact on families. Additionally, he argued that Trump and Elon Musk disregard the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law.

Throughout, the senator read letters from constituents who fear losing access to critical benefits, emphasizing the human impact of proposed government cuts.

Booker also focused some of his remarks on tax policy, particularly Republican efforts to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), enacted during Trump’s first term.

What did he say about taxes? Here’s more of what you need to know.

Cory Booker talks taxes in record-breaking Senate speech

Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate are divided over extending the expiring provisions of the TCJA, dealing with disagreements on legislative strategy, budget accounting, and offsets.

• Senate GOP leadership generally favors a two-bill approach, addressing border security and defense spending first, followed by tax reform later.
• House GOP lawmakers favor a single bill addressing border security, energy, and taxes. Trump has dubbed it “one big beautiful bill.”
• Some in the GOP advocate using a "current policy baseline," which assumes the 2017 tax cuts are already permanent, allowing extensions to bypass deficit-neutral rules under budget reconciliation.

The desire is to pay for tax cuts, which data show are likely to benefit the wealthiest taxpayers.

Booker criticized that approach as fiscally irresponsible and morally unjust. “It is wrong to take away health care for millions of Americans just to pay for tax cuts for the rich,” he said.

Other Democratic senators joined Booker on the floor to amplify his message.

For instance, Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut pledged his support for Booker’s efforts, tweeting, “I’m proud to stand with Cory Booker as he fights against policies that harm working families.”

Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois echoed concerns about how extending TCJA provisions would disproportionately benefit high-income earners while burdening middle-class families with higher taxes over time.

Additionally, in an exchange with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, Booker added, “They're stealing from your grandchildren so that the wealthiest amongst us can get bigger tax cuts, and at the same time taking away medical coverage from the most vulnerable. What is that? It's not who we are. It's not who we are, America.”

Trump tax plans

Republicans have defended their tax policies as necessary for economic growth and stability.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has argued that making the TCJA permanent would avoid a $4 trillion tax increase on American families and businesses while providing certainty for long-term investments.

“Adopting a current-policy baseline would provide businesses the stability they need to drive growth and increase prosperity across all segments of the economy,” Thune told reporters last month.

However, critics have labeled the current policy baseline method as a budget gimmick that could set dangerous precedents for unchecked deficit growth.

The nonpartisan Peterson Foundation warns that this approach undermines fiscal responsibility and opens the door to trillions more in debt over time.

Are you better off economically under Trump?

Booker also addressed broader concerns about inequality, framing his speech as a reflection on whether people in the U.S. are better off now than before these policies took effect. (Booker noted that it’s been about 71 days since Donald Trump began his second presidential term.)

He argued that many are not, pointing to rising healthcare costs and stagnant wages as evidence of growing disparities between rich and poor.

“We are a union in distress compared to our global counterparts,” Booker said. “However, we are a country of immense abundance, and history has shown us to possess remarkable vision.”

It’s worth noting that a recent AP-NORC poll conducted from March 20 to 24, 2025, revealed that only 40% of Americans approve of President Trump's handling of the economy, while 58% disapprove. That marks the lowest economic approval rating of his presidency.

Additionally, many respondents expressed dissatisfaction with his trade negotiations, reflecting widespread concerns about what’s happening with tariffs and fears of recession.

Tax debate 2025: Bottom line

The debate over taxes is far from resolved as Senate Republicans await a ruling from the parliamentarian on whether their reconciliation strategy can proceed without violating deficit-neutral rules.

For now, Booker’s historic speech is, to some, both a critique of current policies and a call to action for Congress to reconsider its priorities, including those involving taxes and tax policy beyond 2025.

Related

• The Fine Print: What Trump Isn't Telling You About His Tax Plans
• Treasury to End Paper Checks: What It Means for Tax Refunds, Social Security
• What's Happening With Taxes on Overtime Pay?

Congress has undergone a historic change. In short, the executive and legislative branches have, in a sense, merged. President Trump is the true head of Congress, with Republican leaders taking their cues from the White House on most issues, big and small. This is not just unusual, it’s unprecedented.

With that backdrop, unpredictability reigns on Capitol Hill, with GOP leaders suffering from whiplash amid Trump’s frequent changes of mind, forcing them to switch gears at a moment’s notice. That said, lawmakers still have work to do.

Tax cuts and border security
First up is a tax cuts and border security bill that Republicans hope to pass this summer. The bill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that expire at year-end. A hike to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap likely will be included, though it’s uncertain how much. The border portion would lift spending for enforcement and deportations. Differences are being hammered out among House Republicans and their Senate colleagues, like possible cuts to Medicaid and other entitlements. Such cost-cutting measures will be politically fraught.

To pass its tax plan, the GOP will use the budget reconciliation process, which allows a few select bills annually to bypass the Senate’s legislative filibuster, meaning that they can pass with a simple majority, not the usual 60-vote threshold. But this tricky process comes with rules that limit the type of provisions allowed. The bill also can’t increase the deficit beyond 10 years. The GOP is considering the use of an unusual accounting maneuver to essentially make the bill deficit-neutral, but the nonpartisan Senate parliamentarian has the final say on what’s included. It’s probable the package will pass in some form in the coming months, though due to reconciliation rules, it likely won’t include everything the GOP wants.

Raising the debt limit
Lawmakers also must act on raising the congressionally mandated debt limit, which, at $36.6 trillion, was hit in January. The Treasury Department can shuffle money around for a few months to delay defaulting on its loans. But time will expire by late summer, and if lawmakers don’t act soon, an already jittery Wall Street will react negatively. Republican budget hawks loathe debt limit increases without spending cuts, but with the party already pushing cuts elsewhere, they’ll fall in line. GOP party leaders may try to add a debt limit hike to the tax bill, but that could hit procedural obstacles.

Finally, Republicans want to codify into law spending cuts made by DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, which is, in effect, run by Trump ally Elon Musk. Congressional Republicans applaud Musk’s efforts, but want the final say on any cuts. Still, GOP lawmakers will push back at a few of the administration’s wishes. There’s zero chance that Congress will agree to the president’s call to impeach judges who rule against him. They’ll also ignore Musk’s calls for deep cuts to Social Security.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Welcome back to Kiplinger's Social Security under Trump live blog. We have provided you with all the up-to-date news, tips, developments and analysis you needed to navigate all the developments impacting Social Security in early 2025.

We, our retirement team (writers Donna LeValley, Donna Fuscaldo), covered everything from the monthly Social Security payment schedule to the changes in policy or rules that could impact how and when you receive your benefits.

Let’s take a look back. A lot has happened since the second Trump Administration took office back in January. We have kept a close eye on all of the developments at the Social Security Administration and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). In addition to the live updates in this blog, we have two hub articles that gather our coverage of what Trump has done so far:
| What Trump Has Done With Social Security | What Trump Has Done With Medicare |

Although this blog has ended, our coverage of Social Security and Medicare will continue. We look forward to bringing you the latest news and ways to get the most of your Social Security benefits and Medicare coverage.

The Last March Social Security Payment Goes Out Today

The day you get a check or direct deposit is always a good day. Today, the last batch of March Social Security payments is going out to beneficiaries whose birthdates are from the 21st through the 31st, who will receive their payments. Make sure to check the 2025 payment schedule to see when the April payments are set to arrive. Some beneficiaries will be getting a bump in their next installment.

Next month, eligible retired public sector employees will receive their increased benefits reflecting the repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) that was retroactively applied to benefits starting in 2024.

— Donna LeValley

Trump Nominee for Commissioner of Social Security was Pressed by Democrat Senators on DOGE and the Future of Social Security

Frank Bisignano, President Trump’s nominee to head the Social Security Administration (SSA), testified on Tuesday at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee. Currently the CEO of the payments company Fiserv, he said in his opening statement: “I am committed to reducing wait times and providing beneficiaries with a better experience” by using his professional expertise in that role. Bisignano said Finserv “processes more than 250 million payments totaling more than $2 and a half trillion dollars a day. We processed 74 million payments a month totaling $1.5 trillion a year.” By comparison, the SSA sent out 73.2 million payments this past February.

Bisignano was questioned on a range of topics. He was asked about his stance on privatizing Social Security (by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.), to which he said: "I've never thought about privatizing. It's not a word anybody's ever talked to me about. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. asked “whether he will make sure the staffing at the Social Security Administration is sufficient to ensure beneficiaries can effectively use the services,” to which he said: “I will commit to having the right staff to get the job done.”

So far, Robert F. Kennedy has been confirmed as HHS secretary. Dr. Mehmet Oz, nominee to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, had his committee hearing on March 25, and is awaiting a full vote before the senate. And Daniel Aronowitz was nominated to be Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA), the agency that oversees employee benefit plans and ERISA enforcement. His hearing before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions is pending.

— Donna LeValley

RFF Announces Lay-Off of 10,000 HHS Employees

In one of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s first major actions as the new head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the sprawling government agency announced a major shakeup in which it will lay off about 10,000 workers, streamline operations by consolidating 28 divisions within HHS to 15 and create a new division to be called Administration for a Healthy America, or AHA. HHS says the moves will save taxpayers $1.8 billion a year.

The workforce reductions are in addition to the 10,000 staffers that left when President Trump took office and offered voluntary separations. The federal health department's staff will shrink to 62,000 as a result.

As part of the shakeup the Administration for Community Living (ACL), which provides critical programs that support older adults and people with disabilities including the Administration for Children and Families (ACF), ASPE, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), will be integrated into other departments at HHS. HHS said it will not impact Medicare and Medicaid services.

“We aren't just reducing bureaucratic sprawl. We are realigning the organization with its core mission and our new priorities in reversing the chronic disease epidemic,” Kennedy, Jr. said when announcing the reorganization. “This Department will do more – a lot more – at a lower cost to the taxpayer.”

Here’s how the workforce reductions will shakeout:

• FDA will decrease its workforce by approximately 3,500 full-time employees
• The CDC will decrease its workforce by approximately 2,400 employees
• The NIH will decrease its workforce by approximately 1,200 employees
• The NIH will decrease its workforce by approximately 1,200 employees
• CMS will decrease its workforce by approximately 300 employees

Related Content: How RFK Jr. May Change Medicare and Your Retirement

— Donna Fuscaldo

SSA Announces Plans for Increased Transparency and Accountability

The SSA announced some measures to increase transparency and accountability by sharing more information online. From wait times to releasing recorded operational meetings on the SSA YouTube channel.

Here is where you can find out more about what is going on behind the scene at the SSA:

Weekly Operational Report Meetings: The acting commissioner of the SSA holds weekly meetings. As of March 14, 2025, the WOR meetings are recorded and published to SSA’s YouTube channel. You can find the WOR Playlist at: SSA Weekly Operational Report Meetings

Agency Actions: The SSA now lists select agency challenges, options presented, and Acting Commissioner’s ultimate decisions on the Agency Actions webpage. SSA says it plans to update the page “periodically to include notable matters for which the current Administration is solving.”

Workforce update: There are concerns about customer service and workforce reductions; especially with the move to increase fraud protections by reducing the types of services that beneficiaries can complete over the phone. The SSA has posted its plans to phase-in the reductions and how the reductions will be achieved. That information can be found on the Workforce Update web page.

Accountability

Customer service wait times for phone calls and claims processing: The Social Security Performance web page tells you the current average wait times for common customer services and the agency’s goals for improvement.

Efficiencies and Cost Avoidance: We’ve been keeping track of the consolidation and closure of SSA hearing and field offices and information about their efforts to “streamline costs” will be posted on the Efficiencies and Cost Avoidance webpage.

Related: 47 Local Social Security Offices to Close After DOGE Cuts

Seven Social Security Field Offices Are Suspending In-Person Services

— Donna LeValley

Overpayment Policy Goes Into Effect Today

Starting today, the SSA will require beneficiaries who have been accidentally overpaid to repay 100% of the money, reversing a previous policy that allowed for only 10% recoupment. The10% limit was put in place in early 2024 during the Biden era to help alleviate the financial hardship that some retirees experience when trying to repay the SSA.

Beneficiaries who receive an overpayment after March 27 will have as much as their entire monthly Social Security check withheld until the debt is repaid. However, if a beneficiary cannot afford full recovery of their overpayment, they can contact Social Security at 1-800-772-1213 or their local office to request a lower rate of recovery.

Related: Social Security New Rule: Overpayments Must Be Paid Back 100%. Why It Matters

— Donna LeValley

The SSA Has Rolled Back Some Changes to the Application Process and Extended the Timeline

The SSA is rolling back some of the recently announced identity proofing requirements. First, the deadline to implement the changes has been pushed back to Monday, April 14, a two-week extension from the previous deadline of Monday March 31. The type of new benefit applications impacted by the change have been reduced.

Now, individuals applying for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), Medicare, or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) can complete their claim entirely over the telephone without the need to come into an office.

The new verification rules will still apply to new applications for Retirement, Survivors, or Auxiliary (Spouse or Child) benefits.

— Donna LeValley

Updated Information About Field Offices that Have Suspended In-person Services

The SSA issued a press release “Correcting the Record about Social Security Office Closings” to reassure the public that “the agency has not permanently closed or announced the permanent closure of any local field office.” Here at Kiplinger, we never reported that any field offices were permanently closing. We did report on the temporary suspension of in-person services at some field offices. And we will continue to update our article list and tell you where you can’t receive in-person services and where they have been restored.

I updated the list today and there are three new offices that are suspending services and two that have reopen dates. Two out of the seven offices that had previously suspended services were removed from the list. You can check the status of your local field office directly at the SSA web site at the Closures or Delays Affecting In-Person Service page. You can also check our regularly updated list that includes the local addresses and phone numbers of the impacted field offices.

Related: Eight Social Security Field Offices Are Suspending In-Person Services

— Donna LeValley

The Average Monthly Social Security Check: February 2025

Do you enjoy facts and figures? If you do, I have a recurring monthly article about the average Social Security check for retired workers and other beneficiaries, such as spouses, that collect benefits based on the work history of a retiree. In February 2025, the average Social Security monthly check for retired workers was $1,980.86. That's an increase of $2.09 over January's average amount of $1,978.77, according to the Social Security Administration's (SSA) Monthly Statistical Snapshot.

Although the data won’t be available until sometime in May, the average Social Security benefit is likely to get a noticeable bump from the increased benefits due to the Social Security Fairness Act kicking in. The financial impact of the Social Security Fairness Act is set to start with March benefits that are typically paid in April. Eligible public sector retirees and spouses/surviving spouses whose benefits were reduced by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset provisions will see those monthly increases over the next few weeks when their April benefits arrive. The average expected increase in monthly benefits is $360.

For more about average Social Security benefits and retirement account balances, check out these articles:

The Average Social Security Check by Age

The Average Social Security Check for Every State

The Average 401(k) Balance by Age and

The Average IRA Balance by Age.

— Donna LeValley

Finally! Bigger Social Security Checks Are Arriving in April

If you are a retired public sector employee and are eligible for additional benefits due to the Social Security Fairness Act (SSFA), you will finally see your monthly payments increase. If you received Social Security benefits after December 2023 and were impacted by the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and/or the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) reductions, you are going to see more money starting in April.

Exactly when are the payments arriving?

Here is the Social Security payment schedule for April 2025 and after.

Related: Bigger Social Security Checks Are Arriving in April

Social Security Payment Schedule for 2025

Social Security Fairness Act Payments Checklist: Nine Things to Know

— Donna LeValley

Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Ends Today!

If you want to switch your Medicare Advantage plan, you better act soon. Open enrollment ends later today, which means you won’t be able to switch plans again until the fall. People who are not already enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan can’t sign up until the fall.

Known as Medicare Part C, Medicare Advantage plans are private health insurance offered by Medicare-approved insurers. They have gotten so popular that more than half of seniors eligible for traditional Medicare now choose Advantage plans instead, according to a recent report by healthcare advisory firm Chartis.

Not sure if you should switch plans? Medicare Resources, which provides consumer information about Medicare, says you should consider changing your coverage in the following instances:

• Your preferred providers are no longer in-network
• The prescription drugs you need are now more expensive
• You find cheaper plans when you compare premiums and drug costs among the various Advantage plans
• Your plan does not offer the perks (like dental, vision or acupuncture) that matter most to you

To help you decide, check out Medicare Plan Finder, a government website designed to help you search for Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans within your zip code. You can also visit Medicare.gov or call 1-800-MEDICARE

Related: Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Ends March 31

Five Reasons Why You Should Review Your Medicare Advantage Plan Before Open Enrollment Ends

— Donna Fuscaldo

Want the Maximum Social Security Check in 2026? Here's What Can Do Now to Boost Your Future Check

Do you ever wonder what the biggest possible Social Security check is and how to get it?

The maximum Social Security check for 2025 is $5,108 per month, up from $4,873 in 2024 (when accounting for the 2.5% cost-of-living (COLA) adjustment). That's a pretty impressive figure, but in reality, however, not many people will qualify for the maximum amount. The good news is that there are ways to maximize your benefits now to increase your check for 2026.

Even if you can't get the maximum benefit, there are a number of ways you can increase the amount that you can get including:

• Earn a higher wage now to increase your benefit later
• Work longer to increase your benefits
• Wait to claim your benefits as long as possible
• Stop your benefits if you claimed too early

Related: Want the Maximum Social Security Check in 2026? Here's What You Need to Do Now

Delay Social Security Benefits — Even by a Month — to Boost Your Check

— Donna LeValley

April Social Security Payment Schedule

The date your April Social Security benefit arrives depends on the day of the month you were born. Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, receive payments on the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month. You have specific payment dates if you received benefits before May 1997. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are typically issued on the first day of the month. For April, a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), implemented in January, adds nearly $50 to the average monthly benefit of about $1,900.

Key payment dates for April are: April 1 (SSI payment), April 3 (Social Security for those who claimed before May 1997), April 9 (for birthdays between the 1st and 10th), April 16 (for birthdays between the 11th and 20th), and April 23 (for birthdays after the 20th). Starting in 2025, Social Security payments will follow a regular schedule, with potential increases due to the Social Security Fairness Act, which eliminated the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP).

People affected by the repeal of the WEP should, on average, notice a $360 increase in their monthly checks. Spouses affected by the GPO repeal should see a $700 increase and surviving spouses should get a $1,190 increase, on average. You don’t have to do anything if you qualify, as the adjustment should be automatic.

Related: What Is the April Social Security Payment Schedule?

Social Security is a Hot Topic in Sen. Booker’s Filibuster

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), started his ‘filibuster,’ or marathon speech, at 7 pm ET on Monday, criticizing President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Technically this is not considered a filibuster, as he is not attempting to stall or block legislation. Senator Booker has been speaking for over 18 hours as of this update.

Before he took the podium in the Senate, Sen. Booker posted this message on X,

“In just 71 days, the president of the United States has inflicted so much harm on Americans’ safety, financial stability, the core foundations of our democracy and even our aspirations as a people for — from our highest offices — a sense of common decency,”

Other democratic senators supported Sen. Booker with lengthy questions and statements, many touching on Social Security. Sen Warren claimed that President Trump and Elon Musk want to “effectively cut off benefits” and “will delay payments” to save money to fund tax cuts for billionaires. She asserted that service cuts and workforce reductions were deliberate tactics to reduce benefits without going through Congress.

Sen. Warren did not explain how cuts in Social Security benefits would help pay for tax cuts as Social Security is “off budget’ and its surplus can’t be used to offset other spending.

Related: Social Security Administration Warns of Massive Layoffs: What It Means to You

47 Local Social Security Offices to Close After DOGE Cuts

— Donna LeValley

Did You Miss the Original Medicare or Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Deadline? Here’s What You Need to Know

If you missed the March 31 deadline for Medicare Advantage plans (or the Original Medicare open enrollment deadline of December 7 last year), you may still be able to change your Medicare selections; it will depend on your current coverage and why you missed the enrollment deadline.

If you missed your open enrollment period, you will be automatically re-enrolled in your current plan for the following year. And you will not be able to change your coverage unless you qualify for a Special Enrollment Period (SEP).

Qualifying life events for special enrollment include:

• You change where you live
• Loss of your current coverage
• You have a chance to get other coverage
• Your Medicare Advantage plan or Part D prescription drug coverage changes its contract with Medicare
• Moving out of your plan’s service area
• Impacted by hurricane and wildfire damage under the exceptional circumstances SEP. This may also apply if it was a caregiver that was impacted by a disaster
• Exceptional situations for a SEP. You may be eligible if you miss an enrollment period because of certain exceptional circumstances, like being impacted by a declared emergency, released from incarceration, employer or health plan error, losing Medicaid coverage, or other circumstances outside of your control that Medicare determines to be exceptional

Related: Missed Medicare Open Enrollment? Here Are You Options

— Donna LeValley

2026 Social Security COLA March Projection Dips After Inflation Slows

Social Security beneficiaries are in a catch-22 situation; there is only a big COLA when inflation is high, but low inflation, which is good for fixed incomes, means a low COLA.

In 2025, the COLA was 2.5%, resulting in an average monthly benefit increase of approximately $49. The increase for 2026 isn't shaping up to be much larger. The latest projection is for an increase of 2.2% year-over-year, a figure 0.1% lower than last month's rate.

New inflation numbers are released monthly; we will bring you the latest estimate as the experts update their 2026 COLA projections. In March, the Senior Citizen's League (TSCL) rolled back its prediction from an increase of 2.3% in February to an increase of 2.2% for March, based on lower inflation rates. However, that is still 0.1% higher than the January projection of 2.1%.

2026 Social Security COLA March Projection Dips After Inflation Slows

Social Security COLA Is 2.5% for 2025: What to Know

— Donna LeValley

Don’t Let Your Social Security Check Get Delayed

About 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits each month, so it's not surprising they want that to continue without a hitch. But that’s not a foregone conclusion if you don’t pay attention to the record-keeping side of things. Run afoul of some Social Security rules and you could face delays in receiving benefits. Or worse, it could result in a reduction or suspension of your monthly benefits altogether.

To prevent that from happening, we put together a list of rules you need to follow to stay in compliance, including these four:

Make sure the Social Security Administration can find you: Known as a whereabouts unknown suspension, this happens when the SSA can’t locate you to confirm benefits eligibility. If they can’t find you, benefits are stopped until you provide your correct address and/or living arrangement and meet all the eligibility requirements.

Keep your bank account information up-to-date: If you usually receive deposits from the SSA to a specific bank and that bank changes, you should notify the agency as soon as possible. If the wrong bank account is on file, your benefit payment will be delayed. This could also cause problems when you try to cash the check at the bank.

Don’t make too much money: If you are retired and collecting Social Security, it's ok to earn cash on the side but make sure it's not more than $23,400 for 2025. If you do, the SSA will either reduce or suspend your benefits.

Update SSA if your living situation changes: If you receive Supplemental Social Security benefits, which provide monthly payments to people with disabilities and older adults who have little or no income or resources, and you don’t alert Social Security when your living arrangement changes, it could cause a reduction or a suspension in your benefits.

If any of this sounds familiar, don’t despair. Just get busy correcting it. Visit your local Social Security office or call the national number at 1-800-772-1213 to find out what’s happening. SSA recommends people wait three mailing days before contacting the office. Be prepared for long wait times, given the number of offices that have closed in recent weeks and the recent spate of layoffs at SSA under the direction of the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE.

— Donna Fuscaldo

Would Raising the Full Retirement Age to 69 Save Social Security?

It's no secret Social Security is facing an insolvency problem. In fact, it is projected to be depleted by 2035 (or even in 2033, by some estimates). At that point, the Social Security Administration will be able to pay some, but not all, benefits.

Policy makers, think tanks and economists all have ideas as to how to fix it. One that is often bandied about is raising the full retirement age to 69. But would it work, and what would it mean to you?

Work longer or accept lower benefits

If the FRA were raised to 69 for people born in or after 1960, they would be left with two choices: work longer or get lower benefits.

How much less? According to the Congressional Budget Office, for people born in the 1970s the average retirement benefits for workers who claimed benefits at age 65 would be 13% less if the FRA was raised to 69. People born in the 1970s or 1980s would receive 8% lower lifetime benefits on average. For people born in the 1960s, this change would translate to only a 2% overall average lifetime decline in benefits.

Plus, even though you would get 100% of your benefits if you waited until the new full retirement age of 69, you get them for a shorter period.

People who have to retire before their full retirement age could be forced to find ways to cover the shortfall, which could mean cutting their budget or downsizing, getting part-time work or tapping the Social Security Disability Insurance program. The latter option would erode some of the projected cost-savings from raising the full retirement age.

While raising the FRA would reduce Social Security’s shortfall, it wouldn’t fix it altogether.

Back to the drawing board!

Read more about raising the Social Security age here.

— Donna Fuscaldo

Social Security Payments Can Be Suspended When Abroad. Here's the Paperwork to Keep Your Payment on Time

Do you dream of living out your days strolling along a piazza in Italy or on the sunny beaches of the Dominican Republic? Be vigilant in maintaining your Social Security benefits and you won’t have to miss a moment of the expat life to restart your payments.

Most retirees living abroad can count on the timely deposit of their Social Security benefits. However, retirees living abroad must complete a SSA questionnaire every one to two years, or benefits will be suspended.

In order to keep the money flowing uninterrupted, retirees need to complete a Foreign Enforcement Questionnaire, SSA-7162 form that is sent by the Social Security Administration approximately every one to two years. The purpose of the form is to ensure the SSA has the correct address and phone number on file and that circumstances that may affect payment have been reported.

How do you know when you are supposed to receive and remit the questionnaire? See the table in our article to determine if you are supposed to complete the questionnaire every year or every two years.

Related: Social Security Payments Were Suspended for Some Americans Abroad. Here's What to Know

How To Manage Retirement Savings When Living Abroad

The Social Security Fairness Act May Change How You Pay Medicare Premiums

If you are a public sector employee whose Social Security benefits were previously reduced by Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO), you may need to revisit how you pay for your Medicare premiums.

The WEP and GPO may have reduced your monthly Social Security benefit to the point that your check wasn’t big enough to cover your total Medicare Part B and Part D premiums; as a result, you paid part of all your Medicare premiums directly. Well, the increase in your monthly benefit may upend this arrangement. If your new increased check covers all or a larger share of your premium expenses, you must cancel or alter any automatic payment arrangements you’ve set up.

Related: How Your HSA Can Reimburse You for Medicare Premiums Paid

What You Will Pay for Medicare in 2025

The Average Social Security Check for Retirees in Every State

The typical Social Security check by state varies significantly from one state to the next; however, state averages can be a bit misleading. They may be impacted by more than the general economic conditions and opportunities available in a particular state.

Some states see their Social Security check averages skewed by an exodus of retirees and others see more retirees move in than out. Although most retirees are in pursuit of a lower cost of living, wealthier and more financially stable retirees are more likely to have the income and assets to move and re-establish themselves someplace new in retirement. This population shift can increase the average check amount in destination states and lower it in states that lose financially mobile retirees.

Related: Want the Maximum Social Security Check in 2026? Here's What You Need to Do Now

— Donna LeValley

Dr. Oz Confirmed To Lead The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)

In case you missed it during all the tariff news and stock market malaise Thursday, Dr. Mehmet Oz, the physician and TV personality tapped by President Donald Trump to lead the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) was confirmed on a party-line vote of 53-45. As the head of CMS, Oz, who has been criticized for sometimes supporting unproven remedies rather than scientific evidence, will be in charge of a government agency responsible for administering Medicare and Medicaid to millions of Americans.

Prior to his confirmation Oz had proposed a vision for Medicare that would increase private-sector involvement. While the jury is still out on what he will do, Oz will likely try to steer retirees and older Americans toward one specific type of Medicare coverage known as Medicare Advantage. Advantage plans are those offered by private insurers and must provide at least the same level of coverage as original Medicare. Many seniors are drawn to Medicare Advantage plans because they commonly offer supplemental benefits beyond what original Medicare covers. But they aren’t without critics, who point to prior authorizations and limited provider choices as two negatives.

While it’s too early to say what Oz will ultimately do as head of CMS, one thing is for sure, change is afoot at the agency responsible for the health care of our nation’s older adults.

To read more about what Oz has planned for CMS now that he’s at the helm, click here.

— Donna Fuscaldo

Are My Services Closing: Bank Edition

You may have heard that the Social Security Administration is closing field offices around the country. If that didn’t create enough headaches, now retirees can add bank branches to the list of things getting shuttered.

Last year, more than 900 bank branches were closed and more are on the chopping block this year. The shift to online banking and mobile apps is a big part of the reason why the likes of Wells Fargo, TD Bank, Popular, Bank of America and Flagstar will close branches in 2025.

But don’t despair. If your local branch closes, try these four strategies to cope.

1. Embrace online banking: Don’t worry if you aren’t tech-savvy. Banks have made it easy to bank online, especially from your mobile phone. Who doesn’t want to check their balance, deposit checks and apply for a credit card without getting off the couch? If it seems intimidating, you can always ask for help from the grandkids or seek free classes from local libraries or senior centers. The bank should also be able to walk you through the sign-up process over the phone.

2. Hit the ATM: Just because your local bank branch is closing doesn’t mean you can’t use the ATM. You won’t get charged for using an ATM your bank owns, and you can make deposits and withdrawals from the screen. Plus you don’t have to worry about branch hours.

3. Use a different bank branch: Your branch may be closing, but if the bank is still operational, you can visit a different location to get your in-person banking done. You won’t have to do anything other than travel potentially further to reach your bank.

4. Switch banks: Forget loyalty. If your local bank branch is closing and the next closest one is too far away, then consider switching to another bank or credit union. It may seem stressful but it’s actually easy to do, although it will take a little effort on your part. After setting up your account you’ll have to redirect direct deposits like Social Security, update bill payments, and then close your old account once everything’s transferred.

To learn more about what you can do when your local bank closes, click here.

— Donna Fuscaldo

Expanded Medicare Telehealth Services Available Until September 30

I’ve had a few telehealth visits and I like the convenience; it’s not useful for ailments that require an examination, but it is a great option for follow-up consultations. Telehealth services were expanded during the pandemic beyond the normal program that was geared toward rural patients who are physically far from physicians and facilities.

Until September 30, Medicare beneficiaries have access to telehealth services. So, whether you are worried about picking up a cold in your doctor's waiting room or plan on traveling as soon as the weather turns warmer, you can still use the telehealth option to take care of many of your health needs.

Related Medicare Basics: 11 Things You Need to Know

— Donna LeValley

Trump Nominee to Head Social Security Advances After Committee Vote

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee advanced the nomination of Frank Bisignano, President Trump’s nominee to be Commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA) by a party-line vote of 14-13. Bisignano is currently the CEO of the payments company Fiserv.

During his confirmation, Bisignano stated his intentions to diminish average customer service wait times from 20 minutes to less than one minute. He also rejected the idea of privatizing Social Security if confirmed.

Ranking minority member Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) wanted to delay the vote to investigate information provided by an anonymous whistleblower that claimed Mr. Bisignano lied to the committee about prior contact with DOGE officials. Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) released a statement about the allegations reiterating his willingness to meet with the whistleblower, maintain their anonymity and investigate the claims.

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Phone Wait Times: The Best Times to Call

Did you know that the Social Security Administration receives 80 million calls every year? Workforce reductions, the consolidation and closing of hearing offices at the SSA and the desire to move more customer service transactions online have some concerned about getting in touch with the SSA when they need to.

In March 2025, the average amount of time a caller waited on hold to speak to a representative in English was 1 hour and 39 minutes. Timing is everything if you want to get through. Read our article to find out when wait times are the shortest and when you need to get comfortable and prepare to wait on hold.

Related: Four Things You Need to Know Before Applying for Social Security in 2025

How to Apply for Social Security Online or In Person

— Donna LeValley

CBO Increases Solvency Projection for the Medicare Trust Fund

One measure of the financial condition of a trust fund is the projected year in which the fund’s balance would be exhausted; the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has given the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund an extra 17 years before it can no longer fully fund its obligations.

Medicare is funded by two trust funds: (1) For Part A: The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is used to pay for benefits under Medicare Part A, which covers inpatient hospital services, care provided in skilled nursing facilities, home health care, and hospice care, and (2) For Part B and Part D: The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, is used to pay for outpatient services (including physicians’ services) under Part B of the program and prescription drugs under Part D.

The HI Trust is funded primarily through Medicare payroll taxes, and to a lesser extent, income taxes on Social Security benefits. Medicare must continue to pay for benefits under Part A, regardless of the status of the program’s trust fund, according to existing law. Funding for the SMI trust fund differs from the HI trust fund. Most of the income to the SMI Trust comes in the form of transfers from the general fund of the Treasury, rather than from a specified set of taxes collected directly from taxpayers.

The CBO revised its 2024 exhaustion projection for the HI Trust fund upward to 2052 from 2035 in The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055. Why did the CBO extend the exhaustion date for the Part A trust fund? The CBO says that expenditures from the trust fund are projected to be smaller and income projected to be greater than it estimated last year. For a more detailed explanation, read pages 22 and 23 of the CBO budget outlook.

Related: When Will Social Security Run Out of Money? And Medicare?

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Website Keeps Crashing

Forget phone calls or field offices, when it comes to interacting with the Social Security Administration, they want you to do everything online. But a funny thing happened on the way to www.ssa.gov – depending on the day you may not be able to get in.

That’s because in recent weeks the Social Security website has been crashing, with outages in some cases lasting as little as twenty minutes to almost an entire day. That’s according to The Washington Post, citing six current and former officials at SSA. When the SSA website does come back on, some customers can’t sign into their accounts; and when they do eventually get in, information is missing. Some of the lucky ones have had no problems accessing the site, but have had to deal with slow response times.

For people receiving Supplemental Security Income or SSI, it’s even worse. For nearly two days last week many of the adults and children receiving benefits under the program received messages when they logged on that claimed they weren’t currently receiving payments. A check of their bank accounts confirmed it was a mistake, but it still caused widespread panic, the Post reported.

The problem: some of the IT staff at SSA and across the Federal government have been let go as part of the sweeping layoffs engineered by Elon Musk and his team at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). DOGE’s downsizing at the SSA has led to 7,000 job cuts with thousands more expected. DOGE is now asking for a 50% cut to the staffing levels in the SSA technology division that manage the website and other electronic access, the Post reported. Plus DOGE implemented software that expands fraud checks, but it wasn’t tested to see if the servers could handle a high volume of users; turns out it couldn’t, which caused the outages.

You can still call SSA, but prepare to wait. We put together a list of the average wait time at different times of the day. The best time to call: 8:00 a.m. The worst time to call: 6:00 p.m. Social Security Phone Wait Times: The Best Times to Call.

— Donna Fuscaldo

Federal Judge Strikes Down Nursing Home Staffing Mandate

A federal judge in Texas put the kibosh on a Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) mandate that would have required that all nursing homes that receive Medicare and Medicaid funding provide a minimum of 3.48 hours of nursing care per resident per day, including specified periods from registered nurses and nurse aides. As of April 2024, almost 1.2 million residents are living in Medicare- and Medicaid-certified long-term care facilities, according to a CMS fact sheet.

U.S. District Court Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk was sympathetic with the purpose of the law, writing: “though rooted in laudable goals, the Final Rule still must be consistent with Congress’s statutes.” The mandate was controversial when proposed and a bipartisan group of 100 House members signed onto a letter expressing their concern that the rule would have resulted in “limited access to care for seniors, mandatory increases in state Medicaid budgets, and could most consequentially lead to widespread nursing home closures.”

The concern was founded in the reality that nursing homes have been coping with persistent staffing shortages since Covid, says the American Health Care Association (AHCA). CMS estimated that about 75% of nursing homes would have been required to bolster their staffing levels to comply with the regulations. The AHCA’s 2024 State of the Sector Report found that nursing homes “still need more than 130,000 workers to return to pre-pandemic levels” and that the staffing mandate would require nursing homes to hire an additional 100,000 caregivers.

— Donna LeValley

First Wave of Social Security Checks for April are Out Today

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits are paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your April check is for your March benefit. If your birthday is between the 1st and 10th of your birth month, you should receive your Social Security payment today, April 9, the second Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you received benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

Don’t forget that Social Security Fairness Act increases arrive this month. Eligible public sector employees whose Social Security benefits were reduced or eliminated by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and/or Government Pension Offset (GPO), your April check should be bigger than last month’s benefit.

Related: Bigger Social Security Checks Are Arriving in April

The Social Security Fairness Act May Change How You Pay Medicare Premiums

— Donna LeValley

How to Appoint a Representative to Handle Your Social Security Payments

If you are one of those people that likes to have all their ducks in a row, then arranging for a representative payee to manage your Social Security payments and communicate with the Social Security Administration on your behalf should be part of your estate plan. This can also come in handy if you or a loved one has been diagnosed with a memory issue or other medical condition that might progress and make it impossible to fully manage your affairs with the SSA.

Why is this important? Because even if you have set up a financial or health power of attorney (POA), or share a bank account with a son or daughter, they may find themselves restricted when it comes time to help you.

Appointing a representative payee doesn’t give them any authority. Similar to an advanced health care directive, it is a way to identify a trustworthy family member or friend to assume responsibility for your payments and communications with the SSA in case something happens.

If the SSA thinks you need assistance with your benefits, they will initiate the process of putting a representative payee in place. Under these circumstances, the SSA can appoint a relative, friend, or other interested party as your “representative payee.”

Related: This Surprisingly Versatile Account Should Be in Your Retirement Plan

— Donna LeValley

Updated List: 11 Social Security Field Offices Are Suspending In-Person Services

If you want to visit a Social Security office, you should make sure it is open for in-person service before you gather your paperwork and make the trip. As of now, there are 11 Social Security field offices that have temporarily suspended in-person services. The offices in New Orleans and Safford, AZ have reopen dates. The remaining nine offices are listed as closed until further notice.

The most recent additions to the list are offices in: Safford, Arizona; Corning, New York; Dyersburg, Tennessee; and Logan, West Virginia.

Related: 15 Social Security Tasks You Can Do Online

— Donna LeValley

10 Places Where You Should Never Give Your Social Security Number

One of the most important pieces of person identification you possess is your Social Security numbers. And safeguarding your Social Security number is one of the best ways to prevent identity theft. Not only should you never carry your Social Security card in your wallet or purse, but you should rarely give out your Social Security number.

Social Security numbers should be used sparingly. Don’t hesitate to ask why someone needs your SSN and whether they can use another way to verify your identity instead, such as a driver's license number or your insurance card.

Related: How to Freeze Your Credit in Three Steps

Is Identity Theft Protection Worth It?

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Lifts Limits On Telephone Service

The Social Security Administration is backing off its plan to require identity-verification for some services online or in person, saying Wednesday that all claims can be done via phone. In a post on X the SSA said people who use the SSA’s phone service will only have to appear in person if they are flagged by the government agency’s anti-fraud system. “We are surging personnel to the phone lines to better assist anyone that needs help,” wrote SSA.

Beginning on April 14, SSA will perform anti-fraud checks on all claims filed over the telephone and flag the ones that have fraud indicators.

This should be welcome news given SSA is already backlogged; plus not everyone is comfortable conducting their Social Security business online.

Related: 47 Local Social Security Offices to Close After DOGE Cuts

The SSA Has Rolled Back Some Changes to the Application Process and Extended the Timeline: Here's What You Need to Know

–Donna Fuscaldo

Dr. Oz Comes to Washington, Lays Out His Vision For CMS

In his first missive as the new administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Dr. Mehmet Oz vowed to work to modernize Medicare, the marketplaces and Medicaid.

“Great societies protect their most vulnerable. As stewards of the health of so many Americans – especially disadvantaged youth, those with disabilities, and our seniors, the CMS team is dedicated to delivering superior health outcomes across each program we administer. America is too great for small dreams, and I’m ready to get work on the President’s agenda,” Oz wrote.

Some of the initiatives Oz says he’s focused on include:

CMS will improve transparency to give Americans the information they need about costs.

Equipping health care providers with better information about the patients they serve and holding them accountable for health outcomes. CMS, says Oz, will work to streamline access to life saving treatments.

Identifying and eliminating fraud, waste and abuse.

Focusing on prevention, wellness and chronic disease management instead of only sick care. Oz pointed to programs CMS operates that can be used to focus on improving holistic health outcomes.

Related: Will Dr. Oz Push Medicare Advantage Plans Now That He's Confirmed?
RFK Jr. Now Heads HHS: How Medicare and Your Retirement May Change
Trump Administration Blocks Medicare From Covering Obesity Drugs — Why It Matters

–Donna Fuscaldo

Last Minute Tax Filers Can Get Their SSA-1099/1042S Online

If you are scrambling to get your federal tax return completed and filed before the end of tax day tomorrow, you can use a my Social Security account to get a form SSA-1099/1042S, Social Security Benefit Statement, to get that tax form filled out and on its way to the IRS.

If this is the first year you are receiving benefits, you may be surprised that your benefits are taxable. Whether or not you actually pay any tax on your benefits will be determined by your income.

When did this start? Under legislation enacted in 1983, up to 50% of benefits from single taxpayers with incomes over $25,000 and from taxpayers filing jointly with incomes over $32,000, are subject to income taxes. Taxes generated are deposited in the Social Security Trust Funds.

Legislation passed in 1993 increased the amount of benefits subject to taxation from 50% to 85% for single taxpayers with incomes over $34,000 and for taxpayers filing jointly with incomes over $44,000. All additional tax income resulting from the 1993 legislation is deposited in Medicare's Hospital Insurance Trust Fund.

Related: Presidents and Social Security: How Presidents Have Impacted America's First Social Insurance Policy

15 Social Security Tasks You Can Do Online

— Donna LeValley

Did You Know There are Three Types of Social Security Cards?

The Social Security Administration has been in the news quite often the past few months. I thought it might be helpful to have more information about the program and how the SSA carries out their responsibilities. Let’s talk about Social Security cards. Did you know that the SSA can issue three types of cards depending on your citizenship status and employment eligibility? All Social Security cards show the holders name and work authorization status.

No restrictions- These cards are issued to U.S. citizens and people lawfully admitted to the United States on a permanent basis. They can be used to access benefits and allow you to work without restriction.

“VALID FOR WORK ONLY WITH DHS AUTHORIZATION”- These cards are issued to people lawfully admitted to the United States on a temporary basis who have DHS authorization to work.

“NOT VALID FOR EMPLOYMENT"- These type of SS cards can be issued in two circumstances: when a person is lawfully admitted to the United States without work authorization from DHS, but has a valid non-work reason for needing a Social Security number; or when a person needs a number because of a federal law requiring a Social Security number to get a benefit or service.

Related: How to Apply for a Social Security Replacement Card

— Donna LeValley

There’s a Retirement Professional that Specializes in Social Security Planning

Trying to decide when it is best to claim your Social Security benefits can be daunting. You know there is a reduction if you claim before your full retirement age and that you can boost your benefit for every month you wait to claim after your FRA until you turn 70. When is right for you? It is a layered decision that takes into account your desire to retire, finances, health and current economic conditions. That’s where a RSSA (Registered Social Security Analyst) can make a difference.

A RSSA can create a detailed personalized plan to maximize your Social Security benefits, put them in the context of your broader financial situation and help you decide when you can confidently claim your benefits. Most RSSAs are established financial professionals that can provide these services in tandem with their other specialized skills in estate planning, insurance or investing.

Related: The Six People You Need to Talk with Before Retiring — and the Best Questions to Ask

How to Apply for Social Security Online or In Person

— Donna LeValley

How Your IRA Impacts Your Social Security

It’s April 15 and if you are 73 or older and have a traditional IRA, you have hit the age where you must take required minimum distributions from your account. This may be a bitter pill to swallow if you don’t need the money or if the additional income adversely impacts your Social Security and Medicare benefits.

This additional income could cause a higher percentage of your SS benefits to be subject to income tax or trigger the income related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA), which is a surcharge on your Part B and Part D premiums in 2026.

Whether you are retired or not, understanding how your IRA distributions can impact your benefits will give you the chance to prepare and plan. Fortunately, there are some ways to soften the tax blow and avoid the IRMAA, if you understand the rules before you take a distribution.

Related: Medicare Premiums 2025: IRMAA Brackets and Surcharges for Parts B and D

— Donna LeValley

Second Wave of Social Security Checks for April are Out Today

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits, are paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month.

The Social Security Fairness Act increases arrive this month. If you are a public sector employee whose Social Security benefits were reduced or eliminated by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and/or Government Pension Offset (GPO, your April check should be bigger than last month’s benefit. Although, the Social Security Administration has cautioned that complex cases will take longer to process and those beneficiaries may not see their adjustments until November of this year.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your April check is for your March benefit. If your birthday is between the 11st and 20th of your birth month, you should receive your Social Security payment today, April 16, the second Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you can see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you started receiving benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

Related: Bigger Social Security Checks Are Arriving in April

The Social Security Fairness Act May Change How You Pay Medicare Premiums

— Donna LeValley

my Social Security Accountholders Will Lose Use of Their Social Security Username Login

Last July, we reported that Social Security online users had to create Login.gov accounts if they don't already have them. However on March 29, the Social Security Administration (SSA) reiterated the need to create a secure Login.gov account and it posted new information about a change to existing user accounts: “Later this year, the “Sign in with Social Security Username” option will be removed, so it's important you act right away.”

To maintain access to your my Social Security account, you have the option to create or use an existing Login.gov or ID.me account to keep access to the information in your personal my Social Security account.

Here is a tip that might entice you to open a my Social Security account if you are wondering if it is worth the trouble. Opening an account can help prevent fraud and identity theft. If criminals obtain your Social Security number, they may try to open a my Social Security account in your name and redirect your benefits to an account they control. But if you open your my Social Security account now, you can help prevent this scenario, since any individual can only have one my Social Security account open per Social Security number.

— Donna LeValley

Presidential Memo Obligates Social Security Administration (SSA) to Implement Measures Aimed at Stopping Ineligible People from Obtaining Benefits

Yesterday, President Trump signed a memorandum directing the Social Security Administration to take some specific steps to ensure non-citizens that are ineligible for benefits don’t receive any from the SSA. These actions include:

• Expand the SSA’s fraud prosecutor programs
• Investigate earnings reports of people 100 years old or older with mismatched records
• Evaluate reinstatement of SSA’s civil monetary penalty program

For edification, non-citizens that have authorization to work in the U.S. must pay all of the existing Social Security and Medicare taxes and may be able to draw benefits from those systems if they meet the eligibility requirements. In addition to other factors, permanent residents that are non-citizens have a 5-year residency requirement to access Medicare.

Related: Social Security Earnings Tests: 5 Things You Must Know

— Donna LeValley

How Your 2024 Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) Could Impact Your Medicare Premiums in 2026

April 15 is behind us once more and you might be tempted to put that tax return in a safe place and forget about it. I’m here to say — not so fast. You need to take a long look at the numbers and estimate if you might be paying more for your Medicare in 2026. Why? Whether you pay an IRMAA in 2026 depends on the income shown on your 2024 tax returns.

The income related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) is a surcharge that is added to the Part B and Part D premiums and it applies to both Original Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans. In 2025, single filers with MAGI over $106,000 and joint filers with MAGI over $212,000 paid more. The surcharge is graduated and you can pay anywhere from an additional $87.70 per month ($74.00 for Part B and $13.70 for Part D) to $529.70 ($443.90 for Part B and $85.80 for Part D) on top of your current Medicare 2025 payments — $185.00 for Part B and $46.50, the average Part D premium.

This October, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid will release the new premium and IRMMA brackets and surcharge amounts for 2026. Until then, you can use last year’s numbers as a guidepost and gauge if your income is close to triggering the IRMAA.

Related: You Can Appeal the IRMAA for Medicare Parts B and D

— Donna LeValley

Customer Services are Strained at the SSA. You Should Plan Around These Federal Holidays

The market may be closed — but the federal government is open. Good Friday and the day after Easter are not federal holidays. So, if you need to mail a letter, submit a passport application or call the Social Security Administration, you can.

While there are better and worse times to call the SSA, holiday closures can make the days leading up to and right after a holiday even more difficult, as people try to resolve problems before the phones are unmanned and offices are closed. So you can plan accordingly, here is a list of the 11 federal holidays that are observed by the federal government.

The best time to call the SSA on a Friday is typically at 8 a.m. when the average wait time is 21 minutes. The best time to call after 12:00 noon is 1 p.m. when you will probably have to wait for an average of 1 hour, 8 minutes. Later in the evenings are the busiest times on Fridays; if you call at or around 7 p.m., the average wait time shoots up to 2 hours, 15 minutes.

— Donna LeValley

Are You Fully Vaccinated? If Not, Be Aware that Medicare Offers Free Vaccinations

Have you checked to see if your vaccinations are up-to-date? If not, take some time to see if you need any boosters. Whooping cough and measles infections have spiked this year and communicable diseases can spread easily among the unvaccinated. Fortunately, a large number of vaccines are fully covered by Medicare without zero out-of-pocket costs.

Medicare covers all adult vaccines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. These vaccines are covered with no out-of-pocket costs. This list of free vaccines is updated every year, so just because it is on the list this year, doesn't mean it will be on the list next year. And if you are traveling internationally, check to see if any destination-specific vaccines and medicines are covered.

Related: What Does Medicare Not Cover? Eight Things You Should Know

— Donna LeValley

National Social Security Month Reinstated

National Social Security month, which was first held in 2019 during President Trump’s first administration, has been reinstated under Trump 2.0.

Running in April of each year, National Social Security Month is focused on helping Americans access their benefits. In 2025, the awareness month will run from April through August 14, when Social Security celebrates its 90th Anniversary. National Social Security Month was canceled during COVID-19 and did not resume under former President Biden.

This awareness campaign may come in handy given that the Trump Administration, with the help of DOGE, has overhauled the Social Security Administration (SSA) in an effort to rid the agency of what the federal government says is fraud and waste. Some of those actions include reducing the workforce at the SSA, closing field offices and suspending some in-person services.

Related: Eight Strategies For Deciding When to Apply For Social Security

— Donna Fuscaldo

Third Wave of Social Security Checks for April are Out

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits, are paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your April check is for your March benefit. If your birthday is between the 21st and 31st of your birth month, you should have received your Social Security payment yesterday, April 23, the second Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you can see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you started receiving benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

If your Social Security benefits began before May 1997, you'll receive your payment on the third day of each month. For those who receive both Social Security and SSI, payments are also typically distributed on the third day of the month. SSI-only payments are usually made on the first of the month.

If you are a public sector employee whose Social Security benefits were reduced or eliminated by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and/or Government Pension Offset (GPO, your April check should be bigger than last month’s benefit — because the Social Security Fairness Act monthly increases have finally arrived. Although, the Social Security Administration has cautioned that complex cases will take longer to process and those beneficiaries may not see their adjustments until November of this year.

Related: Social Security Fairness Act Payments Checklist: Nine Things to Know

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Checks Could Be at Risk if You Have Student Loan Debt in Default

Do you have student loan debt that is in default? If yes, you better pay up soon or your Social Security checks could be at risk.

Beginning on May 5, the Department of Education will restart collections of its defaulted federal student loan portfolio, something it hasn’t done since March of 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic swept through the nation.

The Department of Education will go after defaulted payments via the Treasury Offset Program that collects delinquent debts owed to the government by withholding tax refunds and Social Security benefits. After 30 days, it can start going after your pay check.

“Borrowers who don’t make payments on time will see their credit scores go down, and in some cases their wages automatically garnished,” wrote Education Secretary Linda McMahon in an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal.

Affected borrowers will hear from the Office of Federal Student Aid within the next two weeks. If you are in default the Education Department urges you to contact the Debt Resolution website to make a payment, enroll in an income-driven repayment plan, or sign up for loan rehabilitation.

Related: Social Security New Rule: Overpayments Must Be Paid Back 100%. Why It Matters

— Donna Fuscaldo

Want to Retire to the Caribbean and Keep Your Medicare?

Medicare doesn’t provide comprehensive coverage “outside of the U.S.” But the definition includes more than just the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. It also refers to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (including Saint Croix, Saint John and Saint Thomas). Did I mention they both use the U.S. dollar as their official currencies? If either of these locales appeals to your inner beach bum, you could retire to crystal clear waters and pristine beaches with your Medicare coverage.

There are a few other places you can go to live or visit and be covered by Medicare, including Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Related: International Travel with Medications: Know Before You Go

— Donna LeValley

Does Medicare Cover Concierge Medical Care?

Medicare covers a lot of expenses, but doesn't cover membership fees for concierge care, also called concierge medicine, retainer-based medicine, boutique medicine or direct care.

Concierge medicine requires patients to pay a membership fee to a doctor or group of doctors before they can be seen or accepted into the practice. This fee may include services and amenities that are not covered by Medicare.

Doctors offering concierge care must still follow all Medicare rules, including:

Medicare will cover the cost of your visit and tests if your concierge doctor accepts assignment; but they can’t charge you extra for Medicare-covered services. And your membership fee cannot include additional charges for items or services that Medicare typically covers; only items and services that Medicare will not pay for.

When you are set to receive services that are not covered by Medicare, your doctor must give you a written notice called an "Advance Beneficiary Notice of Noncoverage” (ABN) listing the services and reasons why Medicare may not pay.

Doctors may accept Medicare patients and not accept “assignment,” which is the Medicare-approved amount as full payment. Doctors who don’t accept assignment can charge you more than the Medicare-approved amount for Medicare-covered services. However, they can only charge 15% more than the Medicare-approved amount. This limit is called the "limiting charge."

Limiting charge: The limiting charge is capped at 15% over Medicare's approved amount. This is the highest amount of money you can be charged for a covered service by doctors and other health care suppliers who accept Medicare but don't accept assignment.

Whether or not a doctor accepts assignment, all Medicare doctors can charge you for items and services that Medicare doesn’t cover.

Related: What Does Medicare Not Cover? Eight Things You Should Know

— Donna LeValley

The Average Monthly Social Security Check for March 2025

Is your Social Security check big compared to the benefit other people receive? You can compare your check to the average retiree benefit paid in March of 2025. I have a recurring monthly article about the average Social Security check for retired workers and other beneficiaries, such as spouses and children, that collect benefits based on the work history of a retiree. In March 2025, the average Social Security monthly check for retired workers was $1,997.13. That's an increase of $16.27 over February's average amount of $1,980.86, according to the Social Security Administration's (SSA) Monthly Statistical Snapshot.

Although the data won’t be available until sometime in May, the average Social Security benefit is likely to get a noticeable bump from the increased benefits due to the Social Security Fairness Act kicking in. The financial impact of the Social Security Fairness Act is set to start with March benefits that are typically paid in April. Eligible public sector retirees and spouses/surviving spouses whose benefits were reduced by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset provisions should see those monthly increases with their April benefits. The average expected increase in monthly benefits is $360.

For more about average Social Security benefits and retirement account balances, check out these articles:

The Average Social Security Check by Age and

The Average Social Security Check for Every State

— Donna LeValley

New Deputy Commissioner of Office Operations at the SSA

On Friday, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced the appointment of Stephen Evangelista, a career employee with 25 years experience, as the Deputy Commissioner for the Office of Operations. The press release mentions that he developed and implemented “an enterprise strategy to unify SSA’s more than 3,000 data matching agreements, resulting in improved program administration.”

The deputy commissioner of Office Operations oversees the SSA’s customer support services. This includes oversight of more than 1,200 field offices nationwide, as well as 23 teleservice centers that provide assistance over the phone. Evangelista most recently served as the assistant deputy commissioner for policy in the Office of Law and Policy.

Related: Social Security Phone Wait Times: The Best Times to Call

— Donna LeValley

Secure Digital Access to Social Security Numbers Coming This Summer

Starting early this summer, the SSA says it will be rolling out an “accessible alternative to the traditional physical SSN card” for my Social Security accountholders. While you won’t be able to add a digital Social Security card to your Apple or Google wallets, you will have secure access to an alternative to your physical card.

Those who have opened a my Social Security account will be able to display their Social Security Number from their mobile devices. However, you will need your actual card if you visit a Social Security office to handle any issues with the Social Security Administration.

Here at Kiplinger, we recommend that you never carry your physical Social Security card in your wallet or purse. If the card was lost or stolen, you’d be at a heightened risk for identity theft. On the rare occasion you need to carry your card for I.D. purposes, return it to a safe spot as soon as you are done using it. I have mine stored in a fire and waterproof document bag in a secure place.

Related: How to Apply for a Social Security Replacement Card

10 Worst Things to Keep in Your Wallet

Advice for Enrolling in Medicare Part B — Based on Experience

I often find that reading about someone else’s experience can be instructive. In this case, senior personal finance editor Sandra Block has shared how she decided when to enroll in Medicare and the steps she took to complete the process.

You may or may not be aware that enrolling in Medicare is notoriously complicated and can result in penalties if you get the timing wrong. Unlike Social Security, the decision regarding when to apply for Medicare is driven by their rules, not your circumstances. Here are some valuable tips for first-timers from an expert and new Medicare beneficiary.

Related: Signing Up For Medicare While Still On Employer Health Plan

--Donna LeValley

SSA Issues Press Release That “Highlights Key Accomplishments in the First 100 Days of the Trump Administration”

Today marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second administration and the Social Security Administration (SSA) issued a press release to let you know what they’ve been up to and what progress they have made since January 20.

The SSA lists 13 areas of accomplishment, from expediting the payment of retroactive benefits and monthly increases owed to beneficiaries under the Social Security Fairness Act to enhancing communication and transparency by publishing key performance data previously available only to SSA employees on the SSA’s website.

As of today, there is still no full vote scheduled for Frank Bisignano, Trump’s nominee to be commissioner of the SSA. His nomination was voted on by the Senate Finance Committee and advanced on a party line vote of 14 to 13.

Related: When Will Social Security Run Out of Money? And Medicare?

— Donna LeValley

Should You Donate Money to Social Security?

Did you know that you can donate money to the Social Security trust funds? You can donate money for a charitable tax write-off if you are feeling philanthropic. You might be surprised to learn that Americans donated almost $3 million to the U.S. Treasury to reduce the national debt in 2024. However, whether it’s worth donating to Social Security is debatable.

Would you make a donation to one or both of the trust funds? For now, I’ll continue to make my ‘contributions’ via my employment withholdings. Read the article if you’d like to know what some experts think of the idea and what they recommend.

Related: How To Save Social Security — Pay More Taxes? Cut Benefits?

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Backs Off Plan to Withhold 100% of Benefits to Clawback Overpayments

The Social Security Administration is walking back its plan to withhold 100% of a beneficiary’s monthly benefits to clawback any overpayments they may have received. In an emergency memo, the SSA said it will now withhold 50% of monthly benefits. Previously, the SSA withheld 10% of monthly benefits until the overpayment was recovered.

Opting to withhold 100% of benefits so as to clawback overpayments isn’t new to the Trump administration. The policy was also in place during the Obama administration and first Trump administration. But it proved difficult or impossible for some beneficiaries to pay, so SSA reduced withholding to 10% in 2024 during the Biden administration. The announcement that SSA will now withhold 50% of the monthly benefits will be a relief to many. This is the latest twist and turn at the SSA since Trump’s inauguration as the agency looks for ways to save money and cut costs.

Related: What Trump Has Done With Social Security So Far

— Donna Fuscaldo

How You Can Update Your Direct Deposit Information Over the Phone Has Changed — Again

As of Monday April 28, Social Security beneficiaries can change direct deposit information by calling 1-800-772-1213 and by using a new identity verification procedure. The SSA instructs that before you call, visit ssa.gov/PIN and get a one-time code that you will then give to the Social Security representative that takes your call. You will need to sign in to or create a my Social Security account to generate the code.

People who cannot use a my Social Security account will need to visit a local Social Security office to prove their identity in person. If you go this route, be sure to confirm your local Social Security field office is still open before traveling to your local office; the SSA routinely suspends in-person appointments in a small number of offices for maintenance purposes.

The issue of how Social Security beneficiaries could update direct deposit information came under scrutiny when the Social Security Administration (SSA) first announced it was transitioning to stronger identity verification procedures for direct deposit changes. Initially, the SSA was going to stop allowing updates or changes to be made over the phone. This new process is a workaround but it still comes back to using a my Social Security account.

Social Security beneficiaries can currently use their online my Social Security accounts to make these changes as the SSA already employs online identity proofing procedures.

Related: The SSA Has Rolled Back Some Changes to the Application Process and Extended the Timeline: Here's What You Need to Know

— Donna LeValley

DOGE Is Shut Out of Social Security for Now

The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, is still shut out of the Social Security Administration despite its attempts to gain access to beneficiaries’ data.

A federal court of appeals judge rejected efforts by the Trump administration to pause an order barring DOGE from accessing the personal records of millions of Americans until the case is decided.

In a 9-6 vote, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit said it would not pause the injunction against DOGE, noting DOGE wants “immediate and unfettered access to all records of the Social Security Administration (“SSA”) — records that include the highly sensitive personal information of essentially everyone in our country.”

The judge who originally blocked DOGE questioned why Elon Musk’s team needed access and whether it’s even legal.

Related: Social Security Administration: DOGE Cannot Make Changes to Benefit Payments

Social Security Is DOGE's New Target: What You Need to Know

— Donna Fuscaldo

Remember the Medicare for All Act? It’s Back.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is reintroducing his legislation: the Medicare for All Act, arguing Americans want better access to healthcare. The legislation, which Sanders first introduced in April 2019 along with 14 Democratic Senators, would provide all Americans with zero in the way of healthcare premiums, co-pays or deductibles. According to Sanders, more than 85 million Americans are either uninsured or underinsured because of high deductibles and co-payments.

The move could be perfectly timed or the worst possible timing depending on who you talk to. For people angry about Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)’s cutbacks at Medicare, they may rejoice. For those who want DOGE to cut more of what it calls ‘waste’ out of the government, including at Medicare, not so much. Read the original bill here.

Related: What You Will Pay for Medicare in 2025
Medicare Basics: 11 Things You Need to Know

— Donna Fuscaldo

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders Reintroduces the Medicare for All Act

Be on the Lookout for Your May Social Security Payment

It’s the start of May, which means Social Security benefits are coming to millions of Americans. May Social Security checks begin arriving today and continue through the 30th. When your first payment arrives depends on your birthday.

If you are entitled to either Social Security, Supplemental Security Income or both, typically arriving on the 3rd of the month, check your mailbox or bank account today. Benefits that normally arrive on the 3rd, which is a Saturday, will arrive today, Friday the 2nd.

Related: What Is the May Social Security Payment Schedule?

— Donna Fuscaldo

DOJ Files Suit Against Three Medicare Advantage Insurers Alleging Kickbacks and Discrimination

Yesterday, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts a complaint against Aetna, Inc. and affiliates, Elevance Health, Inc. (formerly known as Anthem); and Humana Inc., and insurance broker organizations: eHealth, Inc. and an affiliate; GoHealth, Inc.; and SelectQuote, Inc, for an alleged kickback scheme and discrimination against eligible disabled Medicare beneficiaries. The complaint alleges that from 2016 through at least 2021, the insurers paid the brokers to steer patients to their MA plans without regard to which plan would best serve the beneficiary.

Humana and Aetna are also alleged to have threatened to withhold kickbacks to push brokers to enroll fewer Medicare enrollees with disabilities; such enrollees are typically more expensive to cover and are therefore less profitable. This led to the defendant brokers, or their agents, allegedly rejecting referrals of disabled beneficiaries and steering them to other plans. If the allegations are true, this is discriminatory because eligible Medicare beneficiaries are allowed to enroll in any MA plan in their area despite any pre-existing conditions.

Deputy Assistant Attorney General Michael Granston of the Justice Department’s Civil Division said “It is concerning, to say the least, that Medicare beneficiaries were allegedly steered towards plans that were not necessarily in their best interest – but rather in the best interest of the health insurance companies. The alleged efforts to drive beneficiaries away specifically because their disabilities might make them less profitable to health insurance companies are even more unconscionable.”

— Donna LeValley

Updated List: 13 Social Security Field Offices Are Suspending In-Person Services

If you want to visit a Social Security office, you should make sure it is open for in-person service before you gather your paperwork and make the trip. As of now, there are 11 Social Security field offices that have temporarily suspended in-person services. The offices in DeRidder, LA, Glasgow, MT, Lewistown, PA and Cleburne, TX have reopen dates. The remaining nine offices are listed as closed until further notice.

The most recent additions to the list are offices in: DeRidder, LA, Glasgow, MT, Lewistown, PA and Cleburne, TX.

Related: 15 Social Security Tasks You Can Do Online

— Donna LeValley

Trump Administration Files Emergency Appeal with Supreme Court Over DOGE Access to SSA Data

Last week we covered how the Trump Administration lost an appeal at the Circuit Court level to give DOGE more access to data at the Social Security Administration (SSA). That failed appeal resulted in a 9-6 vote in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit to maintain the injunction in place that lays out requirements for DOGE associates to gain access to SSA data, and limits how they can assess and use the data.

On Friday, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court. The appeal was filed with Chief Justice John Roberts, who handles emergency matters arising from the 4th Circuit. Roberts ordered the groups challenging DOGE to respond to the administration’s appeal by May 12.

In the administration’s filing, it said “the district court is forcing the executive branch to stop employees charged with modernizing government information systems from accessing the data in those systems because, in the court’s judgment, those employees do not ‘need’ such access.”

Acting SSA commissioner Leland Dudek has written in declarations that DOGE associates need access to personal data in order to implement anti-fraud projects they are working on including: Are You Alive?, the Death Data Clean Up and the Fraud Detection project.

Related: Social Security Administration: DOGE Cannot Make Changes to Benefit Payments

— Donna LeValley

Since January More Americans Are Filing for Social Security Benefits

Blame it on DOGE, or Social Security funding shortfalls, or both, but either way more Americans are claiming initial Social Security benefits at a younger age than in years past.

That’s according to the Social Security Administration, which reported in late April that it has seen a “dramatic increase” in the number of Americans filing for initial Social Security benefits since January. According to the SSA, the highest 10% of earners applied at an earlier age than in the past two years. Moreover, as of the middle of April, 614,000 retirement claims for benefits are pending, which SSA officials said during the meeting is an "extremely" high number.

Social Security has been in the news lately, which may have caused some people to panic and start collecting benefits. After all, DOGE is looking to cut waste and fraud at the SSA and the Social Security fund is facing a shortfall.

Related: Social Security Sees 'Dramatic Increase' in New Filers: Should You Claim Early?

— Donna Fuscaldo

No Social Security Payment This Week? Don’t Worry, It’s Coming

If you don’t receive a payment from Social Security this week, don’t worry, you aren’t to blame.

Twice a year the Social Security Administration skips a week of payments simply because of how the payment schedule is structured. For 2025, the weeks are May 5 through May 9 and August 4 through August 8. This doesn’t mean you are getting less overall.

These are the dates you can expect your monthly payments for May 2025:

May 14: If your birthday is on the first through 10th, you receive payment on the second Wednesday of the month.

May 21: If your birthday is on the 11th through 20th, you receive payment on the third Wednesday of the month.

May 28: If your birthday is on the 21st through 31st, you receive payment on the fourth Wednesday of the month.

Related: Social Security Payment Delayed? Four Reasons Why

— Donna Fuscaldo

Fiserv CEO Frank Bisignano in as the Head of Social Security

In a 53-47 vote along party lines, Fiserv CEO Frank Bisignano was confirmed by the Senate Tuesday as the new Commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA). Bisignano will inherit an agency that is undergoing a lot of change under President Trump, spurred on by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). DOGE says it's focused on removing fraud, waste and abuse from Social Security and has already laid off workers, closed field offices and moved some services online.

During his confirmation hearing, Bisignano told senators he had ‘not thought about’ privatizing Social Security. He also said Trump said Social Security benefits would not be cut under his administration and that he supports that.

Related: How the Social Security Administration Is Coping with Rapid Change

— Donna Fuscaldo

The Average Social Security Check for April 2025

I was excited to see the new Monthly Snapshot from the Social Security Administration (SSA). I wanted to see how much bigger the average check was after the Social Security Fairness Act increases started last month as March benefits are paid in April.

The data was not what I expected. This month we saw an increase of only $2.84 for retired workers and that isn't close to the anticipated average increase of $360. There are probably a few factors in play: this year is the height of the Silver Sunami, the SSFA was expected to generate new benefit applications and those benefit amounts are likely smaller because the retirees worked fewer years in “covered” jobs (jobs that withheld Social Security taxes) and there has been an uptick in people filing for benefits early due to concerns about the stability and longevity of the system.

Related: Eight Strategies for Deciding When to File For Social Security

— Donna LeValley

Republicans Fight Back Against Changes to Social Security

A group of fifteen House republicans led by Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis are raising concerns about changes at the Social Security Administration, including staff cuts and the closing of field offices.

In a letter to the new SS head Frank Bisignano, the politicians said their constituents rely heavily on the services provided by their local SSA offices, the SSA website, and the SSA 1-800 number, and that they are concerned about the impact SSA changes are having on customer service.

“By 2030, all Baby Boomers will be over 65, leading to a surge in seniors relying on Social Security, a trend that will only accelerate over the next five years. Our seniors have worked hard their entire lives and have diligently paid into the Social Security System under the assumption that they would receive these benefits once they retire,” wrote the lawmakers. “Satisfactory customer service must be provided to Social Security beneficiaries, whether that be online, over the phone, or in-person.”

The Republicans, who said they represent districts with significant elderly populations, have been hearing from constituents about inadequate customer service and urged Bisignano to refrain from making additional changes that could further deteriorate SS services.

Related: Customer Services are Strained at the SSA. You Should Plan Around These Federal Holidays

— Donna Fuscaldo

Acting Commissioner Defends Record as New SSA Head Takes Charge

Leland Dudek became acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration in an unorthodox way. He was working for the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board and in the SSA's anti-fraud department and was placed on administrative leave for assisting DOGE without permission. Shortly after that, he replaced Michelle King, who was the Deputy Commissioner for Operations (DCO) at the SSA and then became acting commissioner on January 20, 2025. King refused to give DOGE access to data and stepped down on February 16.

Dudek wrote an opinion piece for The New York Post that was published on May 7, the same day Frank Bisignano was sworn in as the new Commissioner of the SSA. Dudeck defended his actions in carrying out staff reductions and changes to customer service to reduce fraud and increase security of beneficiary data. He wrote “we must deliver relief for our seniors and people with disabilities waiting on a claim decision; for young families needing a Social Security number for a child; for every taxpayer who rightly expects government to do more with less.”

Related: How the Social Security Administration Is Coping with Rapid Change

— Donna LeValley

May is Older Americans Month

Older Americans Month was inspired by the Older Americans Act (OAA) passed in 1965 to address a lack of community social services for older persons. The theme for Older Americans Month 2025 is Flip the Script on Aging, which focuses on challenging stereotypes around getting older and changing how society perceives and talks about aging.

Now in its 60th year, the OAA supports a nationwide network of organizations in delivering programs that help older adults age well. Visit the Administration for Community Living’s webpage ACL A to Z: Programs, Networks, and Focus Areas to explore the range of assistance and information available to older people and their caregivers.

Related: Eight Habits for a Happy Retirement

— Donna LeValley

Five Medicare Changes Coming in 2026

It’s never too early to keep up with the changes with your Social Security and Medicare. Tackling all of the updates that have to be made at Medicare means the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) releases information about upcoming changes throughout the year; that’s why we can start talking about what’s in store for 2026.

Some provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) needed to be codified, or they would have expired. The Trump administration didn't follow all of the recommendations of the previous administration. For example, it has declined to cover GLP-1 receptor agonists, which the previous administration had supported. However, it has moved forward with the Medicare price negotiations. Find out more about five provisions of the IRA, with a few tweaks, that will be staying around after 2025.

Related: What’s the Best Medigap Plan?

— Donna LeValley

Retirement Dreaming Amid Social Security, Market Uncertainty

From stock market volatility to uncertainties about what the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will do to Social Security, you can’t be blamed if retirement is on your mind, even if it’s a decade out. Will you have enough money? Does your future plan make sense?

Or maybe your job is stressing you out so you’re daydreaming about that next chapter where work isn’t your main activity. Either way, we want to hear from you about your retirement dream for our new series My Great Retirement Dream. In it we highlight a pre-retiree's dream for their retirement and have a financial adviser weigh in whether or not it's obtainable. Have a vision for the kind of retirement you want? Send us an email at retirementdream@futurenet.com.

In the meantime, here’s what my retirement dream looks like: My Great Retirement Dream: Sell My House, Downsize, Live off the Proceeds and Dabble in Stocks. Can I Do It?

— Donna Fuscaldo

Prefer a Digital Copy of Medicare's Handbook “Medicare and You”? Sign Up by May 31

You can get your Medicare & You handbook online instead of in the mail each fall. Choosing an online copy means you can reduce paper waste, eliminate clutter and get the handbook sooner. You can access the handbook anywhere you take your electronic device, such as at your doctor’s office.

What is in the publication? It has information about Medicare benefits, costs, rights, protections, health and drug plans and answers to common questions.

To get your Medicare & You handbook online, log into (or create) your Medicare account at Medicare.gov. Go to “My account settings” and change your handbook delivery preference to “Electronically.”

Related: 12 FAQs About Medicare: Your Medicare Questions Answered

— Donna LeValley

President Trump Demands “Most Favored Nation” Status to Lower Drug Prices

Today, President Trump issued an executive order setting a 30-day deadline for pharmaceutical companies to lower the cost of prescription drugs in the U.S. or face limits over what the government will pay. The administration is demanding “most-favored nation” (MFN) pricing, which would set U.S. drug prices at the lowest level paid by comparable countries.

HHS secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is charged with brokering the new prices for drugs over the next month. He would also be responsible for developing a new rule that ties the price the U.S. pays for medications to lower prices paid by other countries if deals are not reached.

Because this is an idea that Trump tried to implement in 2020, there are remnants of the previous proposal we can look at to get an idea of what these negotiations may look like. Here, you can find the American Patients First drug pricing blueprint from May 2018 and a press release issued back on November 20, 2020, that fleshes out how the MFN model would work, and more links about the program.

Related: 16 Strategies to Save Money on Prescription Drugs

— Donna LeValley

Labor Unions, Advocacy Group Calls On Supreme Court to Keep DOGE Out of Social Security

Democrats aren’t the only ones that want the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to stay out of Social Security. On Monday, two labor unions and an advocacy group called on the Supreme Court to maintain an order put in place by a federal judge that prevents DOGE from accessing the Social Security data of millions of Americans. Lawyers for the groups argued that the Social Security Administration has long protected the data of recipients and now wants to turn that on its head by providing access to DOGE. The groups noted that DOGE hasn’t demonstrated a need to access the data, reports ScotusBlog.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court to give DOGE access to SS data after losing an appeal at the Circuit Court. The appeal was filed with Chief Justice John Roberts, who handles emergency matters arising from the 4th Circuit. Roberts ordered the groups challenging DOGE to respond to the administration’s appeal by May 12.

Related: Six Reasons to Disinherit Someone and How to Do It

— Donna Fuscaldo

House Republicans released their tax bill, dubbed “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” which aims to cut spending by $880 billion, largely to Medicaid, to pay for $4.5 trillion in tax breaks. While the bill doesn’t include eliminating taxes on Social Security altogether, it does aim to help some older adults.

Under the bill, which is sure to face a lot of haggling as it tries to get approved, Social Security recipients would receive a $4,000 deduction if their adjusted income is no more than $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples.

Related: Will Retirees Stop Paying Tax on Social Security Next Year?

— Donna Fuscaldo

First Wave of Social Security Checks for May are Out Today

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits, are paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month. Despite sticking to this schedule, this month’s disbursements seem later than usual. Why? It’s the result of a quirk in the 2025 calendar.

Twice a year the Social Security Administration skips a week of payments simply because of how the payment schedule is structured. For 2025, the weeks are May 5 through May 9 and August 4 through August 8. This doesn’t mean you are getting less overall.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your May check is for your April benefit. If your birthday is between the 1st and 10th of your birth month, you should receive your Social Security payment today, May 14, the second Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you can see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you started receiving benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

Related: How to Stop and Restart Social Security

— Donna LeValley

Do You Know How Much You’ll Need to Save to Cover a Potential Shortfall of Social Security Benefits?

Is there a real reason to worry that future Social Security benefits could be reduced? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. There is a shrinking window of opportunity to shore up the Social Security trust fund; in 2033, eight years from now, the trust will be insolvent and unable to pay full benefits by 2035. At that point, if nothing else is done, the program could pay about 83% of scheduled benefits, mostly out of workers’ ongoing contributions.

As the Social Security trust fund moves closer to insolvency with no solutions on the horizon, it's time to take a look at how much more you need to save monthly and annually to cover any reduction in benefits.

How much more do we need to save to cover the possible reduction in benefits? Well, a bit over $100,000. Let's break that down and see how much you'll need to sock away, based on your age, which will dictate your saving timeline.

Related: The Average Social Security Check for Retirees in Every State

— Donna LeValley

How Medicare Fraud Hurts Everyone

UnitedHealth Group is under fire with the Department of Justice, which is reportedly looking into Medicare fraud at the insurer. In particular, the DOJ is investigating the insurer’s Medicare Advantage business, the Wall Street Journal reported. It marks the second inquiry by the DOJ in recent months.

In February, the Justice Department launched a civil inquiry into whether UnitedHealth inflated patient diagnoses in an attempt to get more payments for its Medicare Advantage plans, the Wall Street Journal reported. It’s not clear what the current investigation is focused on. UnitedHealth denies the allegations in the Wall Street Journal report and says it stands by its Medicare Advantage plans.

While Medicare Advantage plans are popular, they do have some downsides. For instance they cost taxpayers more money than traditional Medicare, they have limited provider networks that can change and in some cases have pre-approval requirements and high denial rates for appropriate medical services. Add fraud to the mix, which could cause patients to undergo unnecessary or harmful procedures, resulting in false diagnoses and fraudulent bills, and you can see why this may turn out to be a big deal.

Related: Problems with Medicare Advantage Plans Keep Mounting

UnitedHealth Stock Drags on the Dow After DOJ Probe News

— Donna Fuscaldo

Social Security Recipients With Student Debt in Default Could Lose 15% of Monthly Benefits

Have student loan debt that has fallen to the wayside and collect Social Security? If so, you could stand to lose as much as 15% of your benefits each month if you don’t take care of it soon.

The Department of Education recently announced it was going after student loan borrowers who are in default and that it will use the Treasury Offset Program to collect delinquent debts. That program withholds tax refunds and Social Security benefits to collect what is owed to the federal government. After 30 days, it can start going after your paycheck. Under the program, the federal government can withhold as much as 15% of your monthly benefits until the student loan is paid back. However, they must leave you with at least $750 each month.

As it stands, there are roughly 2.9 million people 62 and older that have federal student loans. Of the group, about 450,000 are in default on their student loans and likely collecting Social Security, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. If you are in default, contact the Debt Resolution website to make a payment, enroll in an income-driven repayment plan, or sign up for loan rehabilitation.

Related: Social Security Reverses Plan to Withhold 100% of Benefits to Recoup Overpayments

— Donna Fuscaldo

Average Social Security Claiming Age is Trending Higher

One of my favorite retirement think tanks, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, has released an interesting study on the upward trend in Social Security claiming ages and the rise in the average of retirees.

The research found that fewer people are claiming Social Security benefits at age 62. Why? Factors, including the elimination of the earnings test, have contributed to people deciding to work longer and claim benefits later.

When comparing claiming ages in 2019 and 2023, the number of people claiming benefits at age 62 and full retirement age (FRA) dropped, the research showed. At the same time, the number of people claiming first-time benefits at age 65, and after age 67 increased. Read the full article to see more stats and what factors are contributing to a rise in the average retirement age.

Related: Five Reasons to Take Social Security Early

— Donna LeValley

Ticket to Work Program Celebrates 25th Anniversary

Most people think of retirement benefits first when they hear about the Social Security Administration (SSA). The SSA also provides disability benefits and assists people in establishing some independence through employment. Through the Ticket to Work Program, the SSA helps create a path for people to get training and work experience without jeopardizing their benefits.

The Ticket to Work Program, along with the Work Incentives Improvement Act, helps people with disabilities gain independence by working and reducing or eliminating their need for benefits.

People ages 18-64 who receive payments from Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and want to work can receive career development, free employment services and a way to maintain their benefits as they transition to working.

Related: 10 Things to Know About Working in Retirement

— Donna LeValley

SSA Reverses Three-day Anti-Fraud Hold on Processing New Retiree Benefit Claims

Change isn’t always easy and the Social Security Administration (SSA) is rolling back an anti-fraud measure that has contributed to a backlog in processing new retiree benefit claims. There has been an uptick in claims filed of late. In April 2025, 597,220 SSA claims were filed vs. 435,583 claims filed in April 2024. In 2024, February had the biggest number of claims, with 502,091 filed. The SSA had put a three-day hold on processing new retiree benefit claims as part of the SSA tightening up security and reducing fraud.

An email by Stephen Evangelista, SSA’s deputy commissioner for operations, sent to employees was viewed by CNN. In the email CNN reports that Evangelista “noted that the agency is receiving a record number of claims this year for several reasons, including the peak wave of Baby Boomers hitting retirement age and a law passed by Congress that beefed up Social Security benefits for nearly 3 million federal, state and local workers.” That law was the Social Security Fairness Act and the repeal of the WEP and GPO reductions made it possible for public sector employees to collect their pension and full Social Security benefits.

Related: Social Security Administration Warns of Massive Layoffs: What It Means to You

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Administration Makes Progress on Long Hold Times

If you need to call the Social Security Administration, there is good news: wait times are getting shorter. According to the SSA, the wait time this morning was 54 minutes. That is down from an average wait time of one hour and eight minutes in April. If you don’t feel like waiting on hold and prefer a callback, that time is also down to an average of 53 minutes. In April, the average callback time was two hours and seven minutes.

Before you call, you may want to check the current wait times here, as they can change from hour to hour depending on the call volume. As of last check, there were 2,448 people on hold and 10,966 waiting for a callback.

Related: Social Security Phone Wait Times: The Best Times to Call

— Donna Fuscaldo

Medicare Advantage Insurance Brokers Under Fire

Do brokers selling Medicare Advantage plans really have your best interests at heart? Researchers at Cornell University’s medical school don’t think so.

In a story that ran in the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Cornell researchers contend insurance brokers get commissions that can be in the thousands of dollars for steering people into a Medicare Advantage plan and away from original Medicare, regardless of whether it's the best choice for the consumer. According to Cornell, insurance brokers can earn close to $6,000 in lifetime commissions selling a 65-year-old a Medicare Advantage Plan.

The report comes on the heels of a lawsuit lodged by the Department of Justice earlier this month, accusing several insurance brokers of taking kickbacks to sell select Medicare Advantage plans. Everyone involved denies the allegations, of course.

Related: Problems with Medicare Advantage Plans Keep Mounting

— Donna Fuscaldo

Second Wave of Social Security Checks for May are Out Today

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits, are usually paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month. This month is a little different.

Twice a year the Social Security Administration skips a week of payments simply because of how the payment schedule is structured. For 2025, the weeks are May 5 through May 9 and August 4 through August 8. This doesn’t mean you are getting less overall.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your May check is for your April benefit. If your birthday is between the 11st and 20th of your birth month, you should receive your Social Security payment today, May 21, the third Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you can see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you started receiving benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

Related: The Role of the Dollar in Retirement: Is It Secure?

— Donna LeValley

Did You Receive Your Social Security Fairness Act Back Payment and Increase Yet?

The SSA had urged beneficiaries to be patient and not contact the SSA until April, so if you haven't received your lump sum retroactive payment or monthly increase, it's time to make some inquiries. It’s possible you are one of those ‘complex cases’ that will require additional time to process; those cases need to be manually adjusted and could not be part of the automated update.

If you want to check up on your pending SSFA benefits, you can call the SSA at 1-800-772-1213 (call TTY +1 800-325-0778 if you're deaf or hard of hearing) or make an appointment to discuss the matter at a local SSA office.

Related: Social Security Fairness Act Payments Checklist: Nine Things to Know

— Donna LeValley

May Is Bone Density Awareness Month and Medicare is Reminding You to “Protect Your Bones”

May is Osteoporosis Awareness and Prevention Month and Medicare has sent an email to highlight resources available to beneficiaries. They included tips to help you prevent weakened bones and remind you of your access to and their coverage of bone density tests. It is a condition that primarily affects women over that age of 50. In the United States, osteoporosis affects one in four women aged 65 or older; an estimated 10 million Americans have osteoporosis, and more than 8 million or 80% of those with the bone deficiency are women.

Medicare beneficiaries are eligible for a bone density test once every 24 months. The test is covered by Part B, if you have Original Medicare. You have the same access to the test if you have a Medicare Advantage plan; it is required to cover everything Original Medicare does.

According to the Medicare website, If there is a medical necessity, you may be eligible for coverage for more frequent bone density testing if:

• You’re a woman whose doctor determines you’re estrogen-deficient and at risk for osteoporosis, based on your medical history and other findings:
• Your X-rays show possible osteoporosis, osteopenia, or vertebral fractures
• You’re taking prednisone or steroid-type drugs or are planning to begin this treatment
• You’ve been diagnosed with primary hyperparathyroidism
• You’re being monitored to see if your osteoporosis drug therapy is working

Related: What You Must Know About the Different Parts of Medicare

— Donna LeValley

CMS to Begin Audits of Medicare Advantage Plans

Beginning immediately, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is auditing all eligible Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts, as it catches up with the backlog going back to 2018. To expedite the work, CMS plans on expanding its workforce of medical coders from 40 to about 2,000 by September 1.

In a press release, Dr. Mehmet Oz, CMS Administrator said, “We are committed to crushing fraud, waste and abuse across all federal healthcare programs. While the Administration values the work that Medicare Advantage plans do, it is time CMS faithfully executes its duty to audit these plans and ensure they are billing the government accurately for the coverage they provide to Medicare patients.”

The CMS conducts Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits of MA plans to confirm that diagnoses used for payment are supported by medical records. This is important because MA plans receive risk-adjusted payments based on the diagnoses they submit for enrollees; meaning MA plans receive higher payments for patients with more serious or chronic conditions.

Due to the backlog, no risk adjustment overpayments have been collected from MA insurers since the payment year of 2007.

Related: Medicare Advantage Plans: Prior Authorization Denial Rates

— Donna LeValley

Tax Reconciliation Bill Could Trigger $500 Billion in Mandatory Medicare Cuts

The ‘big, beautiful bill’ has made it out of the House and the deficit spending will trigger $500 billion in cuts to Medicare, unless Congress acts. While there are no specific provisions in the legislation to trim Medicare spending, the projected deficit of the pending legislation exceeds a statutory threshold and will trigger automatic cuts to spending in a number of areas — but not Social Security.

If you are retired or close to retirement, you might remember the balanced budget crusades of the 90’s led by Stephen Forbes and Ross Perot. It was a continuation of the fight against deficit spending that culminated in the passage of the The Gramm–Rudman–Hollings Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 and the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Reaffirmation Act of 1987; these Acts are known as "Gramm-Rudman-Hollings I" and "Gramm-Rudman-Hollings II." The DNA of fighting deficit spending is alive and well in the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 (PAYGO), although the Act allows Congress to intervene to avoid any cuts.

Congress can essentially ignore the PAYGO law by including language in the bill or with separate legislation that preempts and delays any cuts. It used both methods to defang the automatic cuts when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the American Rescue Plan of 2021 both significantly increased the federal deficit, $1.9 and $2.1 trillion respectively,

In case you missed it: Six Hurdles for Trump's Tax Bill

— Donna LeValley

Free Expert Advice on Your Retirement Plan. Really

Do you have a big retirement dream but aren’t sure you can achieve it? Or maybe your job is stressing you out so you’re daydreaming about that next chapter where work isn’t your main activity? Either way, we want to hear from you for our new series My Great Retirement Dream. Tell us your story anonymously, and we’ll bounce it off a financial adviser to see if you can pull it off. Send us an email at retirementdream@futurenet.com to be considered for the next story.

Related: Registered Social Security Analyst: The Retirement Professional You Didn’t Know You Needed

The Six People You Need to Talk with Before Retiring — and the Best Questions to Ask

— Donna Fuscaldo

Social Security Back-to-Back Payments for Some Recipients on Wednesday

If you just turned 62, began collecting Social Security recently, and receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits, you are in for a mini windfall on Wednesday. That’s because the Social Security Administration will make rare back-to-back payments on May 28.

Social Security beneficiaries who were born between the 21st and 31st and early retirees who began receiving benefits in 2024 and 2025 will get their normal Social Security payment on Wednesday. So will people receiving Supplemental Security Income benefits which includes low-income older adults, people with disabilities and children with disabilities. Typically, they get paid on the 1st of the month, but because it falls on a weekend, they will get their June 1st payment on May 28.

Related: What Is the May Social Security Payment Schedule?

— Donna Fuscaldo

Potential Medicare Changes In the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Medicare isn’t left alone in the One Big Beautiful Bill, passed by the House and in debate in the Senate. Several changes could impact the 68.5 million Medicare beneficiaries, which we lay out in this story.

A big potential win for individuals enrolled in Medicare Part A who still work is the ability to make contributions to a Health Savings Account. As it stands, if you want to make contributions to an HSA, you have to delay enrolling in both Medicare and Social Security. Another potential win: allowing more hospitals to register as a "rural emergency hospital."

On the might be/might not be positive side: letting AI reduce and recover improper payments and limiting Medicare eligibility.

Related: Medicare Basics: 12 Things You Need to Know

Final Round of Social Security Checks for May are Out

When are Social Security benefits disbursed? Beneficiaries who filed claims after May 1, 1997, and receive retirement, disability or survivor benefits, are usually paid on either the second, third, or fourth Wednesday of the month. This month is a little different.

Twice a year the Social Security Administration skips a week of payments simply because of how the payment schedule is structured. For 2025, the weeks are May 5 through May 9 and August 4 through August 8. This doesn’t mean you are getting less overall.

Payments follow the month they are due, so your May check is for your April benefit. If your birthday is between the 21 and 31 days of your birth month, you should receive your Social Security payment today, May 28, the third Wednesday of the month. If you want to take a look ahead, you can see the payment schedule for the remainder of 2025.

If you started receiving benefits before May 1997, your specific payment date is the third day of the month. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments are distributed monthly, usually on the first day of the month. If you receive both SSI and retiree Social Security benefits, payments are typically distributed on the third day of the month.

Didn’t receive your SSFA payment and increase yet? The SSA had urged beneficiaries to be patient and not contact the SSA until April, so if you haven't received your lump sum retroactive payment or monthly increase, it's time to make some inquiries. It’s possible you are one of those ‘complex cases’ that will require additional time to process; those cases need to be manually adjusted and could not be part of the automated update.

If you want to check up on your pending SSFA benefits, you can call the SSA at 1-800-772-1213 (call TTY +1 800-325-0778 if you're deaf or hard of hearing) or make an appointment to discuss the matter at a local SSA office.

Related: The Average Monthly Social Security Check: April 2025

— Donna LeValley

Traveling this Summer? Here’s What Medicare Covers When You Vacation in the US and Abroad

When an emergency happens, you can't put off medical care until you get home. You have to be treated where you are and sort out the expenses after the emergency subsides. But that doesn't mean you can't plan. Understanding what your Medicare insurance does and doesn't cover when you are away from home is the first step.

Whether or not you can expect assistance from Medicare when you travel boils down to what type of Medicare policy you have and whether you are traveling domestically or internationally.

If you are a frequent traveler, you might want to shop for an insurance plan that will help cover your expenses when you are away from home. Depending on what type of Medicare you have, you can shop for a Medicare Advantage plan or Medigap plan, if you are enrolled in Original Medicare, that has a defined travel benefit.

Related: Social Security Payments Were Suspended for Some Americans Abroad. Here's What to Know

— Donna LeValley

Walmart is Making Shopping Easier for Medicare Advantage Participants holding Flex Benefit Cards

Many Medicare Advantage plans include “flex cards” in their package of benefits, which can be used to buy over-the-counter medication and groceries. Walmart is making the task of finding qualifying food and medication on Walmart.com and the Walmart app easier by sorting their merchandise. Now, customers can easily identify plan-specific and benefits-eligible products. Customers can also track their benefit spending and checkout with a mixed basket of goods.

MA plan beneficiary members can add benefit cards to their online Walmart account at Walmart.com/wallet. Eligible merchandise can be identified by a “benefits program eligible” badge. You can filter website search results to include benefits-eligible items and use the Walmart app in-store to find merchandise; a benefits-eligible badge will show up when you scan the items.

If your MA plan includes a flex card, check your plan’s website or call them to see what you’re allowed to buy. Flex cards can offer a range of benefits, but your plan may cover only a few of the eligible expenses. These expenses can include:

• Assistive devices, such as shower chairs and hearing aids
• Fitness classes
• Groceries
• Toiletries
• Vitamins
• Utilities
• Transportation to medical appointments, including rideshare services

Related: Problems with Medicare Advantage Plans Keep Mounting

— Donna LeValley

Do You Know How to Get Help with a Question or Complaint About Your Medicare Coverage?

Do you know who to contact if you have a problem with your Medicare? Whether it's a question or a complaint, you have options to get help and a way to escalate the situation if necessary.

Most of the time it is best to start with the organization that manages your plan. Those with Original Medicare should start with 1-800-Medicare. Questions about Medicare Advantage plans or Part D drug coverage should be directed to the insurer that manages your plan.

Here are ways to get the help you need with a Medicare-related question or complaint:

Issues with Medicare Advantage or Part D- Call your plan. If your question or complaint is related to your Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage or Part C Medicare Advantage plan, contact your plan directly using the phone number on your plan member ID card. Your plan is the best resource to resolve any plan related issues.

Call Medicare directly. If your concern is related to Original Medicare or if your plan was unable to resolve your inquiry, contact 1-800-MEDICARE for help, TTY users should call 1-877-486-2048

Contact your local SHIP. The State Health Insurance Assistance Programs (SHIPs) are state programs that provide non-biased, free local health insurance counseling to people with Medicare regarding their benefits, coverage, appeals and complaints. Use this link to locate your local SHIP.

Contact the Medicare Beneficiary Ombudsman (MBO) If you have been unable to resolve your concern with your plan or a Medicare representative, ask a 1-800-MEDICARE representative to submit your complaint or inquiry to the MBO. The MBO should help to ensure that your question or complaint is resolved

Related: You Can Appeal the IRMAA For Medicare Parts B and D

— Donna LeValley

AI to the Rescue? Social Security’s New Chairman Thinks So

Wait times when calling the Social Security Administration are poised for an improvement if new SSA commissioner Frank Bisignano has his way. Bisignano told CBS in an interview that artificial intelligence could be the key to improving wait times when beneficiaries call in.

"We're bringing a massive technology effort to transform the servicing agenda," Bisignano said in the interview. "We're gonna bring AI into the phone system...I intend it to be completed this year." The new head’s comments come amid cuts to the SSA since President Trump came into office, including closing field offices and laying off federal government workers.

As it stands, the SSA averages over 390,000 calls per day. The average wait time on hold was one hour and eight minutes in April, according to the most recent SSA data.

Related: Social Security Phone Wait Times: The Best Times to Call

Trump’s Pick To Lead Employee Benefits Security Administration Closer to Getting Approved by Congress

Daniel Aronowitz, President Trump’s nominee to serve as Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA), is one step closer to getting approved by Congress. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee included Aronowitz on a list of appointments that will be reviewed at a hearing next week.

This is an important nomination for retirees as the oversight provided by the ESBA is critical to the safety of retirement savings and employee welfare plans, including health care. If confirmed, his responsibilities will include safeguarding the $14 trillion in private sector pension and welfare plans that benefit 156 million workers, retirees and family members.

The EBSA enforces the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), a federal law protecting participants' rights in private-sector retirement and health plans. ERISA oversees approximately 2.6 million health plans, 801,000 private pension plans and 514,000 other workplace welfare benefit plans.

Related: Who Is Trump Nominee Daniel Aronowitz, Tapped to Oversee Pensions?

— Donna Fuscaldo

New HSA Rules in the One Big Beautiful Bill Will Enable Workers with Medicare Part A to Keep Contributing to Their Accounts

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has passed the House and is now in the Senate. While we wait to see what will make it into the reconciliation bill, let’s take a look at how provisions in the bill would change Health Savings Accounts. These accounts are becoming more popular as people recognize their utility and flexibility after reaching age 65.

There are several changes that I covered in the eight changes to HSAs that will impact those saving for retirement. The biggest changes would allow workers who are enrolled in Medicare Part A to continue making contributions to their HSAs while employed and also covered by a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP); the other would allow certain account holders to contribute more based on income.

Don’t forget that funds from these accounts can be used to reimburse yourself for Medicare premiums and co-payments.

Related: 10 Things You Need to Know About Health Savings Accounts

— Donna LeValley

How to Request Accommodations to Access SSA Programs and File Program Discrimination Claims

The Social Security Administration issued a press release to remind beneficiaries that they can request accommodations from the SSA to help them access programs, activities, and facilities regardless of disability. Under Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, the SSA is forbidden from excluding or denying individuals with disabilities an equal opportunity to receive program benefits and services.

If you need assistance to help you access a program, activity or facility, you can contact the SSA for accommodation.

You can make a request for accommodation three ways:

In-person: You can visit or call a local field office or hearing office. Local field offices can be found by using the locator at www.ssa.gov/locator/ and local hearing offices can be found at www.ssa.gov/appeals/ho_locator.html

By phone: You can call the agency at 1-800-772-1213. It can be reached between 8:00 am and 7:00 pm. local time, Monday through Friday

Email: You can also take care of your request online. Email the agency at Section.504.public.inquiry@ssa.gov.

If you feel you have been denied needed assistance to access a SSA program, activity or facility, you can file and report a civil rights complaint to report what the SSA terms “program discrimination.” The complaint process isn’t limited to beneficiaries; members of the public may file a complaint of alleged program discrimination.

If you think that an SSA employee or Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) acted with bias or discrimination when considering your claim instead of the facts of your case, you may file a program discrimination complaint in one of three ways:.

Email. Email the agency at civil.rights.program.complaint.intake@ssa.gov.

By mail. Mail the Program Discrimination Complaint Form (SSA-437-BK), available for download at: www.ssa.gov/forms/ssa-437.pdf.

By phone: Call and leave a voicemail at 1-866-574-0374.

Related: How to Stop Ageism From Tanking Your Retirement

— Donna LeValley

Social Security Recipients With Student Loans in Default Just Got a Reprieve

The White House has put on hold plans to garnish Social Security benefits from student loan holders in default. The government told various media outlets it’s committed to protecting Social Security recipients, many of whom are on fixed incomes, and as a result, won’t go after their Social Security checks. It’s an about face from the White House after it said in late April that it would restart collection activity on student loan holders in default.

At the time, the government said it would use the Treasury Offset Program to collect delinquent debts as part of its plan. That program withholds tax refunds and Social Security benefits to collect what is owed to the federal government. After 30 days, it can start going after your paycheck. Under the program, the federal government can withhold as much as 15% of your monthly Social Security benefits until the student loan is paid back.

There are roughly 2.9 million people 62 and older with federal student loans. Of the group, about 450,000 are in default on their student loans and likely collecting Social Security, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Related: Four Changes to Medicare in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

— Donna Fuscaldo

Four Reasons Your Social Security Check Is Late

The check may not be in the mail or your bank account if you run afoul of Social Security Administration rules. There are several guidelines you must follow, and if you don’t, it can result in your benefits getting delayed, reduced or suspended.

That’s not welcome news to the 70 million Americans who receive Social Security checks each month. They rely on this income to live.

If you do face action, it’s important to call your local SSA office or the national number at 1-800-772-1213 as soon as possible. Typically, you need to contact SSA within 30 days to prevent an interruption in your benefits. Here’s the full scoop on what to do if your check is delayed.

Related: Social Security Payment Schedule for 2025

— Donna Fuscaldo

Final Blog Post — for Now

I don’t think many people would disagree that the first 100 days of the second Trump administration has been a whirlwind. While there is always change when a new administration takes over, the presence of DOGE and its mandate added an extra level of activity. The Social Security Administration was no exception.

The SSA saw its acting commissioner, Michelle King, leave the agency after refusing to cooperate with DOGE and give it access to SSA data. She was succeeded by Lee Dudek, a Senior Advisor for the Office of Program Integrity at the SSA who was put on administrative leave for cooperating with DOGE. Dudek was a supporter of DOGE and its mission and in some cases, made changes that later were delayed or rolled back. Changes – to the identity verification process, to how claims are filed, to reinstating 100% garnishment to clawback overpayments – were later modified. Needless to say, the whipsaw approach made some retirees so anxious that there was an unusual spike in new claims for retiree benefits.

The new commissioner, Frank Bisignano, former CEO and chairman of Finserv, brings a lot of experience in the area of payment processing and general executive experience that was lacking in the interim leadership. Since he assumed the position, the SSA has been less active and is currently focusing on improving communication systems in SSA field offices and reducing claims processing time.

We’ve enjoyed keeping up with the developments at the SSA and bringing those changes to you in a timely manner and with context. This blog may be closing, but the content will still be available. And we are planning some other live blogs for the year; stay tuned.

It's not goodbye, it's see you later!

-Donna LeValley, Donna Fuscaldo and the Kiplinger Retirement Team

There’s still lots of uncertainty about DOGE — the Department of Government Efficiency. The new office in the Trump White House has tried to “move fast and break things” to improve the federal government, in many cases using legally questionable methods. But a concerted agenda is slowly emerging.

So far, DOGE has dismantled federal agencies, most notably USAID — United States Agency for International Development — now in a state of limbo. It’s also laid off thousands of federal workers as a prelude to an even larger reduction-in-force effort that is now under way at various federal agencies.

Legal setbacks
Both efforts have encountered legal setbacks, including a ruling by the conservative Supreme Court requiring the Trump administration to disburse money for already completed foreign aid work. Another judge ordered DOGE to halt further actions against USAID, though the agency can’t resume its work. A lower court says the White House must reinstate 30,000 workers who were fired because of their probationary status.

An expansion of executive power is at stake. The Trump administration seems intent on testing its legal limits, hoping for favorable court rulings that will increase its ability to fire federal workers, impound congressionally appropriated funds and more.

Reduction-in-force initiative
In the meantime, expect DOGE to try doing more things by the book. This includes implementing an even bigger reduction-in-force initiative across several agencies. The Department of Education is in the process of cutting 50% of its staff (roughly 1,900 people) via both layoffs and voluntary retirement. The Department of Veterans Affairs aims to return to its 2019 employment levels (400,000 employees) by shedding around 80,000 jobs. The Department of Defense wants to lose at least 55,000 of its roughly 780,000-strong civilian workforce. The Social Security Administration will look to cut 7,000 of its 57,000 employees.

But note that the traditional RIF process can take months to complete and comes with numerous requirements that open the door to more legal challenges.

DOGE also wants to fast-track efforts to shrink Uncle Sam’s office footprint, terminating hundreds of leases, some of which will expire as soon as this summer. Even here, projected savings may prove short-lived. Some leases will be renegotiated at the urging of agencies that were generally not consulted about the changes.

Slow progress and confusion
The slow pace of progress has proved frustrating for President Trump, whose hunger for quick victories has been stymied by political and legal realities, including fears that the reduction in manpower will hamper government services. So far, DOGE’s actions have mostly sown confusion in Washington. That in itself could help if it discourages people from seeking federal jobs.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

Read more

• Social Security Is DOGE's New Target: What You Need to Know
• With DOGE Making Cuts at National Parks, Can You Still Use Your Senior Pass?
• DOGE Gains More Grip on IRS Amid Leadership Reshuffle
• Donald Trump Tests His Limits

In a recent interview, Trump reportedly said of the department: "I expect it will [be shut down entirely]. You'll have a few people left just to make sure [the states are] teaching English, you know, you say reading, writing and arithmetic."

When signing the order at the White House on March 20, the President added, "We're going to eliminate it, and everybody knows it's right."

It’s important to note that the President cannot immediately eliminate the Education Department due to its establishment by Congress. And recent surveys show a majority (58% and more in various voter surveys) of people don't want to abolish the Department of Education.

However, the initiative reflects Trump's vision of decentralizing education policy. Here’s more of what you need to know.

Education Department executive order

Trump’s order directs newly confirmed Education Secretary Linda McMahon to begin the complex process of winding down the department's operations. The goal is to redistribute its functions to transfer educational responsibilities to state and local governments.

Here are some key elements:

• Decreased funding for specific federal education initiatives, particularly in areas of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and "gender ideology"
• Development of a strategy to redirect federal education funds to states, local governments, and individual students
• Maintenance of federal support for students with disabilities and underprivileged schools
• Continuation of federal student loan programs

The Trump administration has already significantly reduced the department's workforce by approximately 50% through layoffs and voluntary departures.

While supporters hail this move as a step toward educational freedom and local control, some critics argue that it could lead to inconsistent educational standards across the country and potentially reduce resources for disadvantaged students.

So, as President Trump works to dismantle the Department of Education, many questions are emerging not only about the future of education policy but also key education-related tax benefits.

Are education tax credits at risk under Trump?

As Kiplinger has reported, Republican lawmakers recently circulated proposals for significant changes to the tax code, some of which target popular tax credits.

Among proposals reportedly under consideration are modifications to or eliminating significant federal tax breaks like the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) and the Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC).

The AOTC currently provides up to $2,500 a year for eligible higher education expenses during a student's first four years of college. The LLC offers a 20% credit on up to $10,000 in annual education expenses with no limit on years claimed.

Those potential reforms, which haven't yet been set in stone, are part of broader tax policy discussions as the administration seeks to make tax cuts from Trump's first term permanent. According to proposals under consideration by House Republicans, eliminating the AOTC and the LLC is estimated to save the government $85 billion over 10 years.

Will scholarships be taxable?

Republican lawmakers are also said to be exploring changes to education-related tax policies, with one proposal targeting the tax-exempt status of scholarships. If embraced, that potential shift could have far-reaching implications for students and families.

• Currently, scholarships and fellowships used for qualified educational expenses are not subject to federal income tax.
• However, a proposed system could introduce tax on various forms of educational financial assistance, possibly including some state-sponsored programs.

That could significantly affect college affordability, particularly for families who depend on scholarships to fund higher education.

Under the potential new approach, scholarship funds that are currently tax-free when applied to tuition and required course materials might be reclassified as taxable income for students.

According to proposals being floated by the House Budget Committee, Republicans estimate that they can save $54 billion over 10 years by eliminating the exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income from taxation.

What happens if Trump closes the Department of Education?

The potential closure of the Department of Education under President Trump's administration has sparked widespread concern about the future of crucial educational programs and services in the United States.

One pressing issue is the fate of the federal student loan program, which manages a vast amount of student debt affecting millions in the United States.

What happens to student loans?

• If the Education Department is effectively shuttered, the administration of these loans would likely shift to another federal agency. This could possibly be the U.S. Treasury Department, though Trump has now said student loans will be handled by the U.S. Small Business Administration.
• This transition could substantially change loan servicing, repayment plans, and forgiveness programs.
• Borrowers would still have to repay their loans but would face significant uncertainty and chaos regarding their existing loans and future financial aid.

The impact on students with disabilities is another major area of concern.

The Department of Education plays a crucial role in enforcing federal laws that protect the rights of students with disabilities and ensure they receive appropriate accommodations and services in schools.

With the department's workforce significantly reduced, there are worries about how effectively these protections can be maintained and enforced nationwide.

• The potential weakening of federal oversight could result in inconsistent implementation of disability rights across different states, potentially leaving students without adequate support.
• The allocation and management of federal funding for special education programs is another critical issue.
• The federal government provides substantial funding to states for special education services. If the Department of Education is eliminated, it's unclear how this vital funding would be distributed and overseen.

It's also worth noting that many states are already struggling to fully fund special education services. So, any disruption in federal support could exacerbate these challenges, potentially leading to reduced services for students.

National Education Association (NEA) president, Becky Pringle stated the following in a release:

"If successful, Trump’s continued actions will hurt all students by sending class sizes soaring, cutting job training programs, making higher education more expensive and out of reach for middle class families, taking away special education services for students with disabilities, and gutting student civil rights protections."

As this situation unfolds, educators, parents, and students are unfortunately left with many unanswered questions about the future of federal education policy and financial support and, yes — tax policy as well.

Related

• Education Tax Credits and Deductions
• What is the American Opportunity Tax Credit
• Tax Breaks for Parents of Children With Disabilities
• Are Scholarships Tax-Free?

Now comes the big test for the economy: Can it withstand the costs of new tariffs while awaiting potential benefits later, without slipping into recession? President Donald Trump is betting that it can. Businesses and investors aren’t so sure.

While Trump is levying tariffs selectively — enacting some, threatening more, holding off on still others as a bargaining move on other issues — a move away from free trade is clearly here. Businesses, consumers and investors need to adapt to an environment in which many imports cost more, some supply chains get scrambled, and U.S. exports become less competitive due to retaliatory tariffs. Hence, the recent sell-off on Wall Street, as concerns about tariffs hurting corporate earnings combine with broader concerns about the economy.

Short-term pain, long-term gain?
For now, Trump isn’t budging. He thinks that some short-term pain is worth the long-term gain of bringing more manufacturing back to America. He may be right. Some firms are announcing that they will start making, or make more, products in the U.S. Among them are Hyundai, Honda, Volkswagen, Volvo, server maker Inventec, luxury-brand owner LVHM, Compal Electronics and Campari, the spirits maker. But forcing a major rebound in U.S. manufacturing is a long-term endeavor. Tariffs need to be both painful and long-lasting to justify investing in plants here.

Meanwhile, the costs of new tariffs arrive quickly. Consumers pay more as importers pass along part of the tariff cost. Manufacturers that rely on imports of materials or components see their costs rise, or worse, slow down production if certain goods are no longer economical to import. Higher costs risk fueling inflation. These concerns are likely behind the recent deterioration in consumer sentiment.

Shallow recession could hit this year
Our take: GDP growth is going to take a hit, and recession risk has risen. The economy still has key sources of strength. The unemployment rate remains low, even with recent government layoffs. As long as employment holds up, consumers will too, even if it strains their finances somewhat. So for now, outright recession doesn’t seem imminent. But a shallow one could hit later in the year as tariffs bite. If businesses slow investments and hiring due to confusing trade policy and consumers rein in spending due to worries about their jobs, the economy can’t help but suffer.

All this puts the Federal Reserve in a bind. If GDP is slowing but inflation is rising, the Fed has to choose which problem to address and which to let worsen. Since tariffs generally lead to one-time price increases, the central bank is likely to downplay the inflation risks, at least initially. But if tariffs lead consumers to think that more price increases are coming, that mindset can become self-perpetuating. That may tie the Fed’s hands on interest rate cuts just when the economy needs them.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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These tariffs could have a noticeable impact on grocery prices in the near future, particularly because Mexico and Canada are two of America's largest suppliers of fresh produce, meat and beverages. In 2023, the U.S. imported over $45 billion in agricultural products from Mexico, with nearly three quarters consisting of fruits, vegetables, beer, tequila and other beverages, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Similarly, the U.S. imported about $40.5 billion in Canadian agricultural goods, including beef, pork, grains, potatoes and canola oil. A 25% tariff on these imports could drive up costs significantly, depending on how much of the burden businesses choose to pass along to consumers.​

Beyond individual grocery bills, the broader economic implications of these tariffs, such as potential retaliatory measures from trading partners and disruptions in supply chains, could affect the availability and pricing of various products.

What food the US gets from Mexico and Canada

​The United States relies heavily on Mexico and Canada for a substantial portion of its food supply, with these neighboring countries serving as key contributors to various agricultural sectors.

Mexico stands as the largest supplier of fruits and vegetables to the U.S., providing essential produce such as tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, jalapeños, limes and mangos. Notably, approximately 81% of avocados consumed in the U.S. in 2024 originated from Mexico, according to USDA data. ​Canada also plays a pivotal role in supplying the U.S. with grains, livestock, meats and poultry.

In the beverage sector, both Mexico and Canada rank among the top four providers of alcohol to the United States. Mexico is the largest exporter of beer, with 18% of all beer consumed in America originating from Mexico, according to the Beer Institute.

However, the recent implementation of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada by Trump's administration is poised to disrupt this equilibrium. Given that grocery retailers typically operate on thin profit margins, they may have limited capacity to absorb these increased costs, potentially passing them on to consumers.

The broader economic implications are also significant. The U.S. traditionally exports more agricultural goods than it imports; however, the value of imports has risen faster than that of exports over the past decade, according to the USDA. Factors such as climate change have increased U.S. reliance on countries like Mexico, where growing conditions are more favorable.

How soon will new tariffs impact grocery prices?

Despite the administration's assurances that these tariffs will not raise prices for consumers, industry leaders express concerns about imminent cost increases.​

Target CEO Brian Cornell highlighted the company's reliance on Mexican produce during winter months, indicating that the newly imposed 25% tariffs could necessitate price hikes on fruits and vegetables as early as this week. He stated in an interview with CNBC, "Those are categories where we'll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days." ​

While the exact magnitude of price changes will depend on various factors, including how much of the increased costs retailers choose to pass on to consumers, it is reasonable to anticipate that products heavily reliant on imports from Mexico and Canada will see noticeable price hikes and limited availability in some cases. Consumers should be prepared for these adjustments as the market responds to the new trade policies.

How to save on groceries amid tariffs

​In light of potential increases in food prices, consumers can adopt several strategies to manage their grocery expenses effectively. Here are some practical tips to help you save on food:

Stock up on non-perishable items and buy in bulk

Purchasing non-perishable goods in bulk can lead to significant savings over time. Items such as canned goods, pasta, rice and grains have long shelf lives and are often more affordable when bought in larger quantities.

Memberships at warehouse clubs like Costco or Sam's Club can provide access to bulk purchasing options, allowing you to stock up on essentials at reduced prices.​

Grow your own produce and preserve seasonal foods

Starting a home garden allows you to cultivate fresh vegetables and herbs, reducing reliance on store bought produce. Even with limited space, container gardening can yield substantial results.

Preserving seasonal fruits and vegetables through methods like dehydrating or freeze drying ensures you have access to nutritious options year-round. Utilizing equipment such as dehydrators and freeze dryers can extend the shelf life of your garden's bounty.​

Plan meals and be flexible with ingredients

Creating a meal plan helps in organizing your shopping list and reduces impulse purchases. Being adaptable with recipes — such as substituting unavailable or expensive ingredients — can also keep costs down.

For example, if eggs are scarce or pricey, consider using alternatives like applesauce, mashed bananas or commercial egg replacers in your baking and cooking.

Shop at value retailers and local sources

Exploring discount grocery stores can uncover deals on everyday items. These stores offer quality products at lower prices, often through cost-cutting measures like private-label brands, streamlined store layouts and bulk purchasing.

Whether it's using tips and tricks at Aldi’s no-frills shopping experience, seeing Trader Joe’s curated selection of affordable specialty items, or making use of Walmart and BJ’s bulk savings, these stores provide great deals on everyday essentials without sacrificing quality. Even wealthy shoppers have been flocking to Walmart due to the deals.

Additionally, purchasing meat and produce directly from local farms can be economical and support local agriculture. Buying meat in bulk from local sources often results in lower per-pound costs and ensures fresher products.​

Maximize your credit card rewards

​Leveraging your credit card's cash-back incentives can be a strategic way to offset rising costs in groceries and dining out. Many credit cards offer rewards in these spending categories, allowing you to earn back a percentage of your purchases.

To fully benefit from such rewards programs, it's crucial to pay off your balance in full each month. Otherwise, accruing interest charges can negate the advantages gained from cash-back incentives.

For example, the American Express® Gold Card offers 4 Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at U.S. supermarkets (on up to $25,000 per calendar year in purchases, then 1X) and up to $50,000 per year then 1x at restaurants worldwide.

Additionally, new cardholders can earn 60,000 Membership Rewards® points after spending $6,000 on purchases within the first six months of card membership. It’s important to note that this card has an annual fee of $325. See rates and fees.

Below are a few cards that can help you save on food costs:

Blue Cash Preferred® Card from American Express

The Blue Cash Preferred® Card from American Express can help you save at U.S. supermarkets by offering 6% cash back on the first $6,000 charged and 1% back after exceeding this limit. Cash back is received in the form of reward dollars that can be redeemed as a statement credit or at Amazon.com checkout.

If you spend $50 per week on groceries, you could earn $156 in annual cash back, according to The Points Guy. This excludes purchases at big-box retailers like Walmart and Costco.

American Express® Gold Card

If you spend big on groceries and dining, the American Express® Gold Card offers valuable rewards. You’ll earn 4 points per dollar at U.S. supermarkets (up to $25,000 annually) and at restaurants worldwide (up to $50,000 annually). After reaching these limits, you'll earn 1 point per dollar.

These rewards can equate to up to 8% cash back based on their valuations.

Preparing for rising food costs and potential shortages

As new tariffs take effect, consumers should anticipate not only increased grocery prices but also potential shortages of certain imported goods. Implementing measures like bulk purchasing, meal planning, sourcing food locally, growing your own produce and maximizing credit card rewards can help mitigate rising costs and limited availability.

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This article only reviews select credit cards with dining-out and grocery store rewards. We may get compensation if you visit partner links on our site. We may not cover every available offer. Our relationship with advertisers may impact how an offer is presented on our website. However, our selection of products is made independently of our relationship to advertisers. Bonus offers and rates checked as of March 5, 2025.

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The crypto industry has scored some early wins since President Donald Trump took office, including crypto-friendly appointees at key regulatory agencies and a flurry of directives that relaxed regulations for the industry. The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high shortly after the results of the presidential election were announced in November. However, the optimism that propelled bitcoin to all-time highs hasn’t been able to translate into sustained gains for investors as the price of bitcoin has since remained volatile.

Here's what to know about the new administration’s whirlwind of crypto-related moves in its first month:

Trump’s executive order on digital assets
Trump signed in his first week an executive order that, among other things, created a working group to advise the White House on policies governing digital assets (such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens), with the involvement of some federal agencies, including the Justice Department, Treasury Department, Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The executive order aims to establish federal policy that promotes the “responsible growth and use of digital assets, blockchain technology, and related technologies across all sectors of the economy,” by providing regulatory clarity and certainty to the industry. It also seeks to support the development of dollar-backed stablecoins worldwide, and fair and open access to crypto-related banking services. The working group will submit a report in about six months that would include recommendations towards reshaping cryptocurrency regulation.

SEC launches a “crypto task force”
The SEC launched a “crypto task force” on January 21 that will review the agency’s approach to dealing with digital assets and work on developing registration rules for crypto. The move signals a sharp departure from the Biden administration’s enforcement-heavy approach to a more collaborative and industry-friendly stance.

The task force will craft disclosure frameworks and provide clarity on when crypto tokens qualify as securities. The group aims to develop a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets, addressing long-standing industry concerns about regulatory uncertainty and potentially lowering barriers for businesses in the industry.

The cryptocurrency industry is optimistic that the task force will provide a road map for growth amid a broader push by the Trump administration to pull back on the regulation of the industry. Meanwhile, the SEC has scaled back a special unit of more than 50 lawyers and staff members that had been dedicated to bringing enforcement actions against crypto-market participants. The agency also recently withdrew enforcement cases against Coinbase that sought to regulate the company as a stock exchange.

A national bitcoin stockpile
The White House’s first-ever crypto and artificial intelligence czar, David Sacks, and the task force are also looking into the possibility of creating a national bitcoin reserve. A reserve asset is typically a critical resource that can be used in times of crisis. The U.S. currently has an emergency petroleum reserve, which it can use to protect against oil supply shocks. The U.S., like many other nations, also has a gold reserve.

Proponents of a bitcoin reserve say the crypto asset would be an effective reserve as its supply is finite, making it an attractive hedge against inflation. Only 21 million coins will ever exist because of the algorithm written into bitcoin’s blockchain. The prospects of a national bitcoin stockpile would likely cement endorsement of the asset by the U.S. government and push its price even higher. But how such a reserve would work in practice is unclear.

The creation of a strategic reserve poses several structural challenges. Chief among these are how the federal government would fund bitcoin purchases, and whether the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department would take the lead in purchasing bitcoin for the national reserve. The U.S. government already holds around $21 billion in bitcoin, which it has seized through criminal investigations, which would likely be added to the national reserve. A U.S. strategic reserve would likely spur similar efforts by other nations, according to AllianceBernstein.

The odds of crypto legislation rising
Congress has formed a bicameral working group to craft crypto regulation. The Senate also established a new subcommittee for digital assets under the Senate Banking Committee. Congress is already working on legislation for stablecoins. The bill is gaining traction on Capitol Hill and could become law later this year.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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With Donald Trump’s return as president, an overhaul of U.S. foreign affairs is afoot. The commander in chief wants to complete the shift to an “America first” policy started in his first term.

Ukraine
Ukraine has gotten most of Trump’s attention so far, much to Kyiv’s chagrin. The president is determined to end Ukraine’s three-year-old conflict with Russia, kicked off by Moscow’s 2022 invasion. So far, he has done that mostly by applying pressure to Ukraine, demanding big concessions in exchange for ongoing U.S. military aid, plus meeting with Russia.

Trump ups the odds of some sort of cease-fire, and maybe a pact to end the ongoing conflict, at a time when Ukraine is faltering on the battlefield and Russia faces significant economic constraints. The question, as always, is what such an agreement will entail and whether it will prove durable. As things stand, Kyiv would have to concede some of its territory to Moscow for any sort of peace deal to stick.

The issue is exacerbating a rift with Europe, perhaps by design. As in his first term, the president is urging America’s European allies to spend more on defense, specifically the 2% of GDP that members of the NATO military alliance are required to budget for their armed forces, though most don’t. Unless Europe changes course, it will never be able to replace U.S. military aid to Ukraine.

China
By contrast, the White House continues to take a hard line on China, implementing new tariffs, investment restrictions and more. The administration has also notably taken a stronger stance in defense of Taiwan’s independence. Beijing views the island-nation as a runaway province and is planning an invasion, though its timeline remains unclear. The Pentagon expects China to act by 2030.

But Trump’s dealmaking tendencies could soon reassert themselves here. The tariffs, for example, appear to be a ploy to get Chinese President Xi Jinping to the negotiating table. Taiwanese officials are watching nervously and hoping for the best. (Taiwan’s being a chipmaking powerhouse works to its advantage.)

Middle East
In the Middle East, the president faces a major test with Palestine. Trump has proposed militarily occupying and forcibly relocating the population of the Gaza Strip, devastated by the recent conflict between Hamas militants and the Israeli military. While it’s unclear whether the administration could do this, other countries in the region — most notably Egypt and Jordan — take Trump seriously enough to propose their own peace plan, which the president seems to support.

Many countries have learned the risks of simply taking Trump at his word. In some cases, the president is open to changing his mind. In others, he intends to take an extreme negotiating position, hoping eventually to meet in the middle.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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McConnell was first elected in 1984, and has served in the Senate for decades, including as Senate majority leader under President Trump's first administration. He plans to serve out the rest of his term, ending in January 2027. His notice comes roughly a year after he ceded his role as Republican leader in the Senate, ultimately to be replaced by Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

In prepared remarks to the Senate floor, McConnell said, "Seven times, my fellow Kentuckians have sent me to the Senate. Every day in between, I’ve been humbled by the trust they’ve placed in me to do their business here. Representing our commonwealth has been the honor of a lifetime. I will not seek this honor an eighth time. My current term in the Senate will be my last."

What is the average age of a U.S. Senator?

Senators tend to skew older than representatives, due partly to laws about age requirements. By law, a person must be at least 30 years old in order to serve as a senator in the United States, while a person need only be at least 25 years old to be a U.S. House representative. Senators take office, on average, at the age of 51.

As of 2025, the average age of actively-serving senators is 64.7 years old (vs. 57.5 years old for a U.S. House representative), according to the Pew Research Center.

Considering all of this, it’s no surprise that several Senators have served well into their 80s and beyond. In fact, the oldest person to ever serve as a senator was Strom Thurmond (R.-S.C.), who was 100 years old when he retired. (Note: in comparison, the median age of the U.S. population is 38.8 years, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau).

Oldest senators in history

Using information from Senate.gov, including the chronological list of senators, and Oldest.org, here's a list of the 12 oldest senators in history, as of Feb. 2025. These senators brought years of experience and leadership to the U.S. Senate.

12. Rebecca Felton (1835-1930)
Oldest age while serving: 87 years, 5 months, 12 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Nov. 21, 1922 – Nov. 22, 1922 (1 day)

11. James Inhofe (1934-)
Oldest age while serving: 88 years, 1 month, 16 days
Political party: Republican
Tenure: Nov. 16, 1994 – Jan. 3, 2023 (29 years)

10. Daniel Akaka (1924-2018)
Oldest age while serving: 88 years, 3 months, 3 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: May 16, 1990 – Jan. 3, 2013 (22 years, 7 months, 18 days)

9. Daniel Inouye (1924-2012)
Oldest age while serving: 88 years, 3 months, 10 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Jan. 3, 1963 – Dec. 17, 2012 (49 years, 11 months, 14 days)

8. Carter Glass (1858-1946)
Oldest age while serving: 88 years, 4 months, 24 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Feb. 2, 1920 – May 28, 1946 (26 years, 3 months 26 days)

7. Richard Shelby (1934-)
Oldest age while serving: 88 years, 7 months, 3 days
Political party: Republican
Tenure: Jan. 3, 1987 – Jan. 3, 2023 (36 years)

6. Dianne Feinstein (1933-2023)
Oldest age while serving: 90 years, 3 months, 7 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Nov. 4, 1992 — Sept. 28, 2023 (30 years 10 months 24 days)

5. Carl Hayden (1877-1972)
Oldest age while serving: 91 years, 3 months, 1 day
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: March 4, 1927 – Jan. 3, 1969 (41 years, 10 months)

4. Chuck Grassley (1933-)
Oldest age while serving: 91 years, 5 months, 7 days
Political party: Republican
Tenure: Jan. 3, 1981 – Present (44 years, 1 month, 21 days and counting)

3. Robert Byrd (1917-2010)
Oldest age while serving: 92 years, 7 months, 8 days
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Jan. 3, 1959 – June 28, 2010 (51 years, 5 months, 26 days)

2. Theodore F. Green (1867-1966)
Oldest age while serving: 93 years, 3 months, 1 day
Political party: Democratic
Tenure: Jan. 3, 1937 – Jan. 3, 1961 (24 years)

1. Strom Thurmond (1902-2003)
Oldest age while serving: 100 years, 29 days
Political party: Democratic until 1964, then Republican
Tenure: Dec. 14, 1954 – April 4, 1956; Nov. 7, 1956 – Jan. 3, 2003 (47 years, 5 months, 8 days)

A brief history of six notable senators

From serving only one day to reaching the age of 100 while still in office, we've highlighted these six individuals who have served their country from the Senate floor.

Mitch McConnell is not running for reelection, an announcement he made on his 83rd birthday (he is roughly the same age as Bernie Sanders). He served as the senior United States senator from Kentucky, a seat he has held since 1985. McConnell served from 2007 to 2025 as the leader of the Senate Republican Conference, including two stints as minority leader (2007 to 2015 and 2021 to 2025), and was majority leader from 2015 to 2021. That makes him the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history. Three times (2015, 2019 and 2023)Time listed McConnell as one of the 100 most influential people in the world.

Rebecca Ann Felton was an American writer, politician and slave owner, and the first woman to serve in the United States Senate. She served for only one day. At the time, she was the most prominent woman in the state of Georgia and was honored near the end of her life by a symbolic one-day appointment to the Senate. Felton was sworn in on November 21, 1922, and served just 24 hours. At the age of 87, she was the oldest freshman senator to enter the Senate.

Dianne Feinstein was an American politician who was elected in a special election in 1992 and served as a senator from California until her death in 2023. She was California's first female U.S. senator and elected to the senate five times. In the 2012 election, she received 7.86 million votes. Until 2024, that was the most popular votes ever received by any U.S. Senate candidate in history. Feinstein was a member of the Democratic Party and also served as mayor of San Francisco from 1978 to 1988.

(James) Strom Thurmond represented South Carolina in the U. S. Senate from 1954 to 2003. He was a member of the Democratic Party until 1964, when he joined the Republican Party. Thurmond served three times as President pro tempore of the United States Senate, and chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee from 1981 to 1987. He was the only member of the Senate to reach the age of 100 while still in office and the oldest-serving senator; he died less than six months later.

Robert Byrd served as a United States senator from West Virginia for over 51 years, from 1959 until his death in 2010. A Democrat, he also served as a member of the U.S House of Representatives for six years, from 1953 until 1959. To this day, he remains the longest-serving senator in history. Byrd served as secretary of the Senate Democratic Caucus from 1967 to 1971 and as Senate Majority Whip from 1971 to 1977. Over the next 12 years, Byrd led the Democratic caucus as Senate Majority Leader and Senate Minority Leader.

Chuck Grassley is in his eighth-term as a U.S. Senator and the senior United States senator from Iowa, serving since 1981. Before becoming a senator, Grassley served three terms in the United States House of Representatives (1975–1981). At the ripe old age of 91 years, 5 months and 7 days, Grassley is the oldest sitting U.S. senator, the longest-serving Republican in congressional history, and the sixth-longest-serving U.S. senator in history.

Who might be the next senators to retire?

The current Congress, the 119th, began on Jan. 3, 2025 and will end on Jan. 3, 2027. So, who is next to retire and call it a day from the Senate? So far, Michigan Democrat Gary Peters and Minnesota Democrat Tina Smith have both said that they are not running for re-election in 2026. Others are expected to announce as the term gets further underway.

Tried and failed term limits?

A 2023 Pew Research Center survey found a whopping 87% of Americans say they support congressional term limits — an idea inspired by George Washington when he established the custom of Presidents voluntarily leaving the office after two terms. Washington's decision to step down is prominent in the musical Hamilton, in the song "One Last Time."

In the Broadway musical, Alexander Hamilton confronts Washington with the question, “Why do you have to say goodbye?” Washington replies: “The nation learns to move on. It outlives me when I’m gone.”

Several Presidents since then tried for a third term in office, but none were successful until Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s re-election to a third term in 1940.

Proponents argue that term limits for members of the Senate and House could motivate them to “seize the day” and exercise their power expeditiously on behalf of their constituents. While, defenders of unlimited terms argue that the experience and independence gained from long service cannot be denied — members are most effective and most resistant to special interests when they are most knowledgeable.

In the '90s, several states enacted voter-passed term limits. However, the Supreme Court's decision in U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton halted the state-led effort, ruling that only a constitutional amendment could implement such changes.

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Among other ignominious milestones caused by Trump’s tariffs, we’ve seen the worst short-term performance for stocks under any sitting president in modern history, per CNN, and the worst single-day decline since the realities of COVID-19 hit investors in 2020.

While some hold out hope that Trump is simply making an opening bid in a longer-term negotiation on global trade, a prolonged trade war would have serious consequences for portfolios as tariffs impact the stock market beyond the immediate volatility we’ve seen in early 2025. Exposure to select sectors could mitigate these risks, however, as certain companies are more susceptible to the negative influence of tariffs than others.

The following investment themes and the exchange-traded funds that express them could help protect risk-averse investors in the years ahead.

All of these ETFs are well-established, with more than $500 million in assets. They're also affordable, with annual expense ratios of less than 0.35%.

China's technology stocks

A bitter truth of the current Trump trade war is that while the U.S. stock market has struggled, other regions – most notably China – have seen outperformance in 2025. In particular, China’s tech sector has been doing quite well thanks to home-grown hardware and an increasingly sophisticated workforce with experience in software and IT services.

At the top of the list of investments capitalizing on this theme is a nearly $8 billion exchange-traded fund, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). This technology-focused China ETF has managed to post a gain since January 1 even as the rest of Wall Street – and in particular, large cap tech stocks like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) – have melted down dramatically. That’s thanks to top KWEB holdings including Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA), which is actually up more than 20% since January 1 while the Nasdaq 100 is down almost 18% in the same period.

The story is similar with Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ). This technology-focused ETF is only down slightly from January 1 through Monday, April 4. Many individual holdings in this China technology ETF have done well, including familiar leaders in the nation like Tencent Holdings (TCHEY) that has eked out a small gain YTD even as the S&P 500 has suffered.

In short, the “America first” approach seems to be hurting U.S. technology stocks (Wall Street is worried about Apple, for example) more than their international peers. That’s particularly true considering the domestic reliance on China hardware, while competitors in Asia avoid similar reliance – and now have a surplus of local goods to make the most of in the age of a trade war.

European banks

Another regional investment theme that has done quite well in 2025 is a focus on Europe – specifically, in EU financial institutions. And in many ways, that groundwork for that success predates Trump’s trade war by several years.

After the U.K.’s “Brexit” vote in 2016 and its official exit from the EU in 2020, policymakers focused on a capital markets union that was self-sufficient – from London, but also from New York and anywhere else. More recently, price shocks after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russian aggressors sparked a sense of urgency to shore up energy supplies and manufacturing to make the region self-sufficient.

The result has been what policymakers call “strategic autonomy” for the collective of European Union member states, built on local banking that serves local needs. And the timing couldn’t be better for this approach, as EU banks increasingly boast better profitability and a more inward-focused business model.

As proof of the success, check out the iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (EUFN) that is up about 8% year-to-date as U.S. stocks have stumbled. Meanwhile, the leading Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) of domestic banks has lost 8% in the same period.

Utilities

Turning back to U.S. investments, utilities are one of the most reliable investments on Wall Street and have a history of providing safe havens in troubled times. Electricity is a necessity for homes and businesses in the 21st century, so there's always strong baseline demand.

What's more, while there may be volatility in the energy products used to generate power, these costs are almost always passed through to end-users who don’t have much choice. The sector is highly regulated and very expensive to operate, meaning utility stocks tend to be regional monopolies that don't face true competitive forces.

As a result, domestic utility stocks and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) will likely provide a smoother ride than more risky parts of Wall Street. In fact, the ETF is trading just a bit under flat on the year to make it “less bad” than most other sector ETFs. Top holdings in this fund include leaders in the sector such as NextEra Energy (NEE), Southern Company (SO) and Duke Energy (DUK) that are collectively valued at more than $240 billion and aren’t going anywhere regardless of short-term trade wars.

Investment-grade bonds

If you were hoping for an interest rate cut in 2025, perhaps the largest bit of good news out of this tariff mess is the increasing odds of Federal Reserve action as a result of weak business sentiment. Inflationary pressures have been a consistent concern lately, but now the central bank can comfortably blame a supply-driven trade war instead of demand-driven pressures from an overheating economy.

If you're particularly interested in safety, bonds are a logical choice because they are far less volatile than stocks generally. Furthermore, they offer nearly guaranteed yield so you can still generate income in retirement without worrying about selling assets into a downtrend.

And lastly, the face value of bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates – so if rates do get cut, the principal value of related assets actually goes up because these older and higher-yielding securities are more attractive.

Investment-grade bonds – a category that includes debt of government entities as well as blue-chip powerhouses with strong balance sheets – are the top-tier of the debt markets and are particularly attractive right now as a result of these factors. These are the opposite of junk bonds, which are riskier and speculative in nature.

Of course, buying individual bonds requires much more savvy than buying individual stocks. That's why a bond exchange-traded fund like the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is a good choice.

With more than $127 billion in assets under management and a portfolio of some 18,000 different bonds, the fund yields about 4.5%. It's also full of rock-solid investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds. What’s more, BND is actually up slightly on the year from a share price perspective to provide a sweetener on top of that income stream.

Gold and gold miners

Looking beyond stocks and bonds to alternative assets, gold is often seen as the ultimate safe-haven investment during times of uncertainty. And with a 13% gain since January 1 as most stocks have suffered big-time in 2025, it’s hard to argue with that logic.

As an uncorrelated asset, the precious metal has the ability to hang tough or even move higher even when the stock market is melting down. Gold is also a hedge against inflation that is expected to occur if global supply chains are disrupted by trade policies.

Whether you're looking for a hedge against rising prices or diversification beyond the typical asset classes, the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is one of the more affordable ways to get direct exposure to gold prices

IAU charges just 0.25% in annual fees, or $25 on $10,000 invested, which is much less than investors might pay to store, insure or transact with physical gold bullion.

It’s worth noting that gold miners can also be a good bet thanks to what’s called “operational leverage.” In short, many mining companies can easily ramp up production without significantly adding to cost – meaning they win both on the price of their gold brought to market as well as increased volume.

For this reason, the $93 billion VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has surged 24% since January 1, and some of its top holdings like Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) have fared even better than that. Just keep in mind leverage works both ways, so the volatility may be just as dramatic if and when the momentum moves away from gold miners in the months ahead.

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As Republican lawmakers in Washington, D.C., work on a tax bill, they will have to tackle multiple sticking points. One of the thorniest hurdles for the bill is how to handle the popular state and local tax (SALT) deduction that is claimed by individuals who itemize on Schedule A of Form 1040.

There is currently a $10,000 cap on SALT deductions. Filers can deduct on Schedule A any combination of state and local property taxes, and income or sales taxes, up to a $10,000 limit. Married couples who file separate returns can each deduct up to $5,000. Prior to 2018, the SALT write-off was generally unlimited for individuals, except for people who owed the alternative minimum tax. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) enacted the $10,000 limit on SALT deductions.

As with many of the tax provisions affecting individuals in the TCJA, the $10,000 SALT deduction cap is temporary and expires after 2025. If nothing is done, filers could then deduct SALT on Schedule A of their Form 1040 as they did before 2018.

House Republicans from high-tax states, such as New York, New Jersey and California, want to increase the current $10,000 SALT deduction cap or eliminate the cap altogether. And they have the ear of their congressional leaders and President Trump.

The president has called for raising the cap both on the campaign trail and while in office, likely because he needs the votes of these Republican House members to pass tax legislation. With a very slim majority (maybe even only a one- or two-person majority at times) in the lower chamber of Congress, Republicans cannot afford to lose many votes. The group of House GOP-ers who support lifting the SALT deduction cap might be small, but they are mighty. They can wield lots of power and affect what goes in or stays out of any tax bill.

Possible changes to the SALT deduction

Most experts think that at the end of the day, the $10,000 SALT deduction cap won't be fully repealed, despite repeated calls by the bipartisan House SALT caucus to do exactly that. But the cap could be higher or other changes could be made to it. Here are some options that are already on the table:

• Double the SALT deduction cap to $20,000 for couples filing a joint return (the cap would stay at $10,000 for other filers).
• Triple the SALT deduction cap to $30,000 for couples filing a joint return and increase it to $15,000 for other filers.
• Greatly increase the SALT deduction cap to $200,000 for couples filing a joint return and to $100,000 for other filers.
• Let the $10,000 cap expire at the end of 2025, but then let filers deduct only property taxes, and not state and local income or sales taxes.
• Fully eliminate the SALT deduction for business taxpayers, such as C corporations.

SALT deduction wrinkles

Complexities abound when analyzing the SALT deduction. Let's look at four things to consider.

1. Cost

Increasing the $10,000 SALT deduction cap or getting rid of it altogether would cost the government a lot of revenue that Trump and Congress would want to use for other tax cuts. It's estimated that eliminating the $10,000 cap would cost the government $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

2. Benefit to upper-income taxpayers

Lifting the $10,000 SALT deduction cap would mainly benefit upper-income taxpayers. According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, taxpayers "making $430,000 or more would enjoy nearly three-quarters of the benefit" of full repeal of the SALT cap.

3. AMT

Third is the dreaded alternative minimum tax (AMT). AMT is due to the extent it exceeds regular federal income tax liability. Prior to 2018, many upper-income individuals who were subject to AMT did not get a tax benefit from SALT write-offs. That's because in figuring alternative minimum taxable income, taxpayers have to add back in SALT deductions taken on Schedule A. The 2017 TCJA defanged much of AMT, resulting in far fewer taxpayers paying AMT now, as compared with pre-2018 years. But similar to the $10,000 SALT deduction cap, the AMT easings lapse at the end of this year. And we don't know how Congress will handle the expiring AMT changes.

4. Pass-through entities

Fourth, most states offer workarounds around the SALT deduction cap to owners of pass-through entities, such as partnerships and LLCs. Under these state workarounds, pass-throughs can elect to pay an entity-level state income tax instead of having the individual owners pay state tax on income that is passed through to them. The owners then get a state tax break for their pro-rata share of the tax paid by the firm. When such an election is made, state income tax payments shift from the business owners, who are subject to the $10,000 SALT deduction cap, to the pass-through entities, which are not.

As a result of these state workarounds, the SALT deduction cap, which was a key revenue raiser in the 2017 TCJA, is generating only about 85% of its originally projected revenue. Unless the SALT deduction cap is fully repealed, expect that these state workarounds will continue to exist.

This first appeared in The Kiplinger Tax Letter. It helps you navigate the complex world of tax by keeping you up-to-date on new and pending changes in tax laws, providing tips to lower your business and personal taxes, and forecasting what the White House and Congress might do with taxes. Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Tax Letter or subscribe.

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What to say about term-two Donald Trump? The president is testing his limits — legally, politically and otherwise — with mixed results so far. This is evident with Trump’s signature issues.

1. Immigration
Take immigration. While the president signed a legally contentious executive order curtailing birthright citizenship during his first week in office, he hasn’t dramatically ramped up deportations of undocumented immigrants. Daily arrest numbers have surpassed those under Joe Biden. But Trump has been forced to release some of the detainees because of a lack of detention space, an obstacle that Congress likely must overcome with more funding. As a stopgap, officials are lining up deals with sheriffs around the country. Expanding detention at places like Guantanamo Bay naval base has hit legal snags.

2. Trade
On trade, Trump has found more success, using tariff threats for other objectives. Canada and Mexico staved off the imposition of duties by agreeing to help the U.S. with drug smuggling and immigration enforcement. The White House appears eager to try a similar approach with China.

This isn’t the president’s final word on either issue. Behind the scenes, he is urging immigration officials to ramp up arrests and deportations. Moreover, tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico are on hold only temporarily. Don’t be surprised if Trump keeps wielding this threat to extract further concessions from the countries being targeted — an effective tactic, but a source of angst for importers and exporters.

3. Government efficiency
The biggest test for Trump’s strategy will be efforts to shrink the government, led by Elon Musk. Musk has defied expectations for his Department of Government Efficiency by trying to shutter the U.S. Agency for International Development and gaining access to critical government employment and payment databases.

At the same time, pretty much all of the administration’s most ambitious steps face lawsuits. For example, a judge has directed the White House to unfreeze federal grant funding. A judge recently ruled in favor of the president’s deferred resignation plan, for which 77,000 employees — over 3% of the federal workforce — have signed up. Also, the upheaval may effectively accomplish some of the president’s goals. Government workers whose job status is up in the air may opt to take different jobs.

Trump's vulnerability
It’s worth noting that Trump continues to enjoy a political honeymoon. He began his second term more popular than his first. His approval rating is currently 49%, on average, three points better than his roughly 46% disapproval. How long it will last remains unclear. Voters strongly like or dislike Trump more than any other modern president, making him vulnerable to sudden swings in popular opinion that could accompany negative economic news, for example.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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This request, detailed in a letter obtained by various news outlets, cites the recent expansion of the IRS workforce under the Biden administration and suggests some of those agents could be valuable assets in border security operations.

President Donald Trump publicly floated this idea at a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada.

"They hired or tried to hire, 88,000 workers to go after you. And we're in the process of developing a plan to either terminate all of them or maybe we'll move them to the border."

Trump added, "I think we're going to move them to the border. Where they're allowed to carry guns, you know, they're so strong on guns, but these people are allowed to carry guns, so we'll probably move them to the border."

So, what does all of this mean for you and your taxes? Read on.

Related: Check out Kiplinger's tax blog for the 2025 filing season. We're providing live updates, news, information, and commentary to help you navigate your taxes.

IRS agents going from tax audits to border patrol?

Secretary Noem's request specifically targets the approximately 2,200 agents from the IRS Criminal Investigation Unit (IRS-CI), a specialized division within the U.S. Treasury Department.

Unlike "regular" IRS employees and agents, IRS criminal investigation special agents are authorized to carry firearms in certain circumstances and often work on cases where arrests are sometimes warranted.

• Under the proposed plan, these IRS agents would investigate financial transactions associated with illegal immigration and potentially be able to arrest, detain, and transport people.
• One argument here is that their expertise in financial investigations could be helpful with issues related to human trafficking and the employment of undocumented workers (e.g., auditing employers, seizing properties, serving on task forces).
• This raises questions about training, jurisdiction, and the appropriate use of specialized federal resources.

The legal basis for this reportedly lies in Section 287(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. That provision allows DHS to form partnerships with various law enforcement entities for immigration enforcement purposes. However, using IRS agents in that capacity would be unprecedented.

Critics express concern that redirecting IRS agents to the border could have unintended consequences, including lost federal tax revenue since those agents couldn’t focus on tax enforcement.

This is important since the IRS has touted recent successes in recovering billions in outstanding tax dollars.

For example:

• In fiscal year 2024, the IRS collected over $5.1 trillion in tax revenue and $98 billion in enforcement revenue.
• The IRS-CI division initiated 2,667 criminal investigations and obtained 1,571 convictions, maintaining a 90% conviction rate, according to the IRS.
• These efforts identified over $9.1 billion from tax and financial crimes, including tax fraud, money laundering, and cybercrimes.

Additionally, the proposal has reignited debate about immigration enforcement and border security. Some supporters argue it represents an innovative approach to a pressing national security issue, while some detractors see it as overreach.

87,000 IRS agents coming for your money?

It’s worth noting that the proposal to send IRS agents to the border is also seen by some to be at odds with the Republican Party's previous stance on IRS agents.

For years, GOP lawmakers used the idea of “armed IRS agents” to stoke fear among taxpayers. As Kiplinger reported, some often falsely claimed the IRS planned to hire 87,000 armed agents to harass middle-income earners.

That false narrative was particularly prevalent during debates surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided additional funding to the IRS (billions of dollars of which have since been clawed back by Congress).

So, now some find it ironic that the DHS Secretary may use those same agents for immigration enforcement. Additionally, staffing levels will be a concern since President Trump has put executive orders in place to freeze hiring at the IRS indefinitely and has offered federal buyouts (also known as deferred resignation) to millions of federal workers, including IRS staff.

Trump IRS changes bottom line

As the Trump administration moves forward with its immigration agenda, the potential redeployment of IRS agents to the border could be a contentious issue. The refocusing of those agents could take attention away from investigations of tax fraud, money laundering, and cybercrimes.

This is all happening at a time when the IRS is in flux. Trump’s pick for IRS Commissioner isn’t yet Senate-confirmed, there’s an indefinite hiring freeze applied to the tax agency, and tax season 2025 is in full swing while Congress debates trillions in potential tax cuts.

Of course, whether this proposal will move beyond the planning stages remains to be seen. But it has already sparked a conversation about the role of various federal agencies in enforcing immigration policies and if approved, could impact IRS tax enforcement, so stay tuned.

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• What Trump's Federal Buyout Offer Means for You Now

President Donald Trump's administration had extended an unprecedented "deferred resignation" offer to approximately 2.3 million federal workers, promising continued pay through September 30, 2025, if they agree to resign by the deadline.

However, the offer has been mired in legal controversies and uncertainty, leaving many workers in a precarious position. Last week, some IRS workers were informed that they can’t take advantage of the offer until after tax season ends.

And now, in a developing story, a federal judge paused the employee buyout pending a court hearing and is now letting the program move forward. But the new deadline to take the offer was February 12. Confused? Here’s more of what you need to know, beginning with what the government buyout is.

What is the federal employee buyout?

The government buyout is a "deferred resignation program" introduced by the Trump administration. It's also been referred to as a "Fork in the Road" program." Here's what happened.

• Eligible federal employees were initially offered the option to voluntarily resign by February 6, 2025. That deadline changed to February 12.
• Those who accepted would continue to receive their full salary and benefits until September 30, 2025, providing about eight months of compensation after resignation.
• Employees were required to waive their right to take legal action against their agency regarding employment matters.
• Accepted employees would be exempt from in-person work requirements until September 30, 2025.
• To accept the offer, employees needed to respond to the official email with the word "resign."

Note: Some employees deemed by the Trump administration to be essential were ineligible for the buyout or would have to delay their resignation through the program.

Judge considers buyout program

Three federal unions representing 800,000 civil servants sued, arguing that the buyout offer was unlawful and arbitrary. (The unions include the American Federation of Government Employees, the National Association of Government Employees, and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.)

They argue the offer violates the Administrative Procedure Act and could result in a "dangerous one-two punch" to the federal government by depleting expertise and potentially politicizing vacant positions.

A federal judge in Massachusetts, George O'Toole Jr., considered a request for a temporary restraining order to suspend the deadline and require the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to provide a legal basis for the offer.

Judge O-Toole has temporarily paused President Trump's controversial federal employee buyout plan. The decision came just hours before the original "Fork Directive" deadline.

The order essentially:

• Extended the deadline for employees to consider the offer
• Required the government to inform all eligible employees about the extension

The judge has now let the program move forward. As mentioned, this judicial intervention comes at a critical time, with tens of thousands of federal workers having already reportedly accepted the offer.

Some key legal concerns for federal workers include:

Waiver of Rights: The contract requires employees to "forever waive" their right to take legal action against the agency regarding their employment or the deferred resignation offer.

Funding Uncertainty: The current budget financing the federal government expires in March, raising questions about the assurance of pay through September.

Potential Cancellation: Some departments, like the U.S. Department of Education, reportedly informed staff that the buyout deals could be canceled.

Congressional Authorization: Some employment lawyers question whether the offer is lawful, as Congress, not the White House, is responsible for authorizing workers' paychecks.

How Many Federal Workers Took the Buyout? Even with those concerns, more than 70,000 federal workers (according to the White House), or roughly 3% of the civilian federal workforce, had reportedly accepted the deferred resignation offer as of February 12, 2025. That outside number marks a significant increase from the 20,000 or so acceptances reported just a week earlier, indicating a potential last-minute surge as the deadline approached.

The Trump administration wants to convince up to 10% of the federal workforce to resign, which it says will save the federal government $100 billion annually.

Some IRS workers must stay in their jobs longer

As Kiplinger reported, in a notable exception, certain IRS employees can’t participate in the buyout offer program until mid-May. This decision affects workers in critical roles within Taxpayer Services, Information Technology, and the Taxpayer Advocate Service.

The move is supposed to help safeguard the smooth operation of the 2025 tax filing season, culminating on Tax Day, April 15.

This exemption underscores the potential disruptions the buyout could cause to essential government functions.

For more information see: Trump Wants You Out At the IRS But Not Until May.

Deferred resignation program: Bottom line

In any case, many argue that widespread resignations could significantly impact the government's ability to provide services, such as tax refund processing, Social Security verification, and healthcare through Medicaid and Medicare.

And as federal employees face this critical buyout decision, either now or later, they will have to weigh any potential benefits against legal and financial risks.

Note: This story has been updated to reflect the number of federal employees who accepted buyout offers and the changing circumstances surrounding court action and the offer deadline.

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