The oldest of the three main U.S. equity indexes opened higher and held its ground all the way through a widely expected rate-cut announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the closing bell on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up and down throughout Fed Day but also surged on what many market participants may see as a "Goldilocks" scenario unfolding for the economy.

After a third-quarter-point reduction since September, the target range for the federal funds rate is now 3.50% to 3.75%. According to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, the latest move by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "will determine how the year will close out."

Navellier notes "that when Powell is replaced next May with a Trump nominee, further cuts will be forthcoming." He adds that "100% of the time stocks were higher 12 months later" when the FOMC cuts the fed funds rate – good news for a stock market that's less than 2% from new all-time highs. "On top of solid growth forecasts for the U.S. GDP and earnings," Navellier concludes, "a cut today is plainly bullish for stocks."

The Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections (pdf) – including its dot plot – reflects both concerns about the jobs market and persistent inflation as well as rosier growth expectations. The median forecast shows 2.3% GDP growth in 2026, up from 1.8% in September, core inflation of 2.5%, down from 2.6%, and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Altogether, it adds up to only one rate cut in 2026.

Fed funds futures pricing shows a 75.6% probability the Fed holds its benchmark at 3.50% to 3.75% when it meets in January. We'll continue to track reaction to the December Fed meeting in our live Fed blog.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 1.1% at 48,057, the broader S&P 500 was up 0.7% at 6,886, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% to 23,654.

GEV doubles its dividend

GE Vernova (GEV, 15.6%) doesn't make the list of our favorite dividend-paying stocks yet, but doubling its quarterly payout rate is a good way to get there. GEV, which was spun off from General Electric in April 2024, has generated a total return of more than 377%, including 90%-plus so far in 2025.

GEV declared a dividend of 50 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026, up from 25 cents and payable on February 2 to shareholders of record on January 5. GE Vernova's board of directors also approved an increase in the company's stock buyback authorization to $10 billion from $6 billion.

Susquehanna analysts Charles Minervino and Eric Clay reiterated their Positive (or Buy) rating and raised their 12-month target price for GEV from $750 to $775 after management also reset its long-term revenue and margin forecasts in a December 9 investor update.

GE Vernova said it would see $52 billion in revenue by 2028; its previous forecast was for $45 billion by then. Management also said EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin would be 20%, better than its prior forecast of 14%, "as higher pricing flows through the backlog, capacity is scaled, and it continues to execute on its lean strategy."

Minervino and Clay "remain bullish on GEV given its position as the leading gas turbine supplier globally in an environment where load growth expectations continue to accelerate."

Indeed, power demand driven by the AI boom means GE Vernova can "extend its backlog out to 2030" and beyond. "The company's new long-term financial targets give us growing confidence in the trajectory of the business," the analysts conclude.

It's go time for most stocks and sectors

Nike (NKE, +3.9%), Caterpillar (CAT, +3.6%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, +3.3%) and American Express (AXP, +3.2%) were among 23 of 30 Dow Jones stocks to close higher on Wednesday, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +3.2%) rebounded from a steep sell-off on Tuesday.

Nvidia (NVDA, -0.6%) rallied off its intraday lows, but along with Microsoft (MSFT, -2.8%) the leader of the AI revolution was at the bottom of the index. Nine of 11 stock market sectors were up for the day, including tech stocks, while consumer staples were flat and utilities were down as a risk-on mood took hold in the afternoon.

"With the economy performing better than expected amid a complex macroeconomic environment and corporate earnings rising to double-digit growth," LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist writes, "strategists have increased their stock market forecasts for 2026."

The average year-end 2026 price target for the S&P 500 is up from around 6,500 in early September to 7,269 as of December 9. "A bottom-up analysis," he elaborates, "which aggregates analyst price targets for individual S&P 500 components, suggests the index could reach 7,900 by the end of next year."

Turnquist says communication services stocks, real estate and materials stocks have the greatest potential upside, while consumer staples stocks, health care and industrial stocks have the weakest – and industrials are pegged for 12.8% upside.

Based on data collected by FactSet, 2026 earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 is forecast to be $309, year-over-year growth of 13.6% vs full-year estimates for 2025. LPL Research sees the index at 7,300 to 7,400 by the end of next year.

"Key catalysts include the historical precedent of bull market cycles continuing absent a recession, earnings power fueled by accelerating AI spending trends, easing monetary policy, and a stimulus boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act," Turnquist concludes.

Related content

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The retailer has taken big steps over the last couple of years to revamp its fashion selection and bring in more premium brands in a bid to get wealthy shoppers to shop at Walmart.

Walmart is an especially great place to shop for all the little ones in your life. From the top trending toys for toddlers and kids to the most coveted brands for teens and tweens, you'll find plenty of great gift ideas for the grandkids at Walmart. You can head directly to Walmart's holiday gift shop now to browse some of their bestselling gifts of the season.

Not sure where to start? Keep scrolling for some of the most popular Christmas gifts for kids of all ages in 2025. Between Walmart's low prices and wide selection of trending gifts, you'll easily outcompete Santa Claus himself this year.

The best Christmas gifts for toddlers at Walmart

If you're trying to keep your holiday gift budget under control this year while still making your grandkids feel as special as they are, here are some of the biggest toy trends of 2025 available at Walmart.

• For the future chef: Melissa & Doug Flip & Fry Grill Play Set with Water WOW!® Color Reveal Play Food, $35
• A toddler's first pet: Pets Alive Polly the Magic Bird Electronic Girls Robotic Toy, $30
• For the gearhead-to-be: Monster Jam Smash & Bash Grave Digger Remote Control Vehicle, $45, Save 29%
• Share the classics with the next generation: Dr. Seuss's Christmas 3-Book Boxed Set, $25

Walmart's most popular gifts for kids

For kids roughly 6 and up, nostalgia is big this year. From rebooted Tamagotchis and Pokémon trading cards to the Furby and Rubik's cube, the most popular toys for kids this year are a blast from the recent past.

• For the kid who's "gotta catch 'em all:" Pokemon Trading Card Game Mega Evolutions Booster Bundle, $49. Save 11%
• A Furby that DJs and teaches yoga: DJ Furby Rainbow Electronic Plush Toy, $56. Save 20%
• The brain teaser that never gets old: Rubik's Cube, Pulse Cube, $19
• For the future coding genius: GiiKER Super Decoder, 600-Level Code-Breaking Puzzle for 1-2 Players, $50. Save 33%
• For the budding artist: Art 101 Glow and Neon Drawing and Painting Art Set, 61 Pieces, $25. Save 11%

The best Walmart Christmas gifts for preteens

Want to maintain your title of "best grandparent ever" this year? Pick up any of these gifts for your preteen grandkids and you're sure to win the title again.

• For the trendsetter: Stanley Quencher Flowstate, 40 oz., $25. Save 44%
• The gift your gamer grandkid is dreaming about: PlayStation Portal Remote Player, $179. Save 10%
• For the kid who never has enough Labubus: Pop Mart The Monsters (Labubu) Big Into Energy Vinyl Plush Blind Box V3, $33. Save 11%
• A fun way to capture memories: Fujifilm Instax Mini SE Instant Camera with Bonus 10 Pack Mini Film, $55. Save 25%

The best Christmas gifts for teens at Walmart

Shopping for teens can be tricky. But if you stick with one of these popular gift ideas, you're sure to squeeze a smile out of even the angstiest of teens.

• For the music lover: Apple AirPods 4, $85. Save 34%
• A popular tech gift for 78% off: Holy Stone 4K EIS Drone with UHD Camera, $130. Save 78%
• For the cozy gamer: Better Homes & Gardens Grey Bubble Faux Fur Ultra Soft Luxury Oversize Throw Blanket, $24
• Because snail slime is self-care now (really): COSRX Advanced Snail Hydrogel Eye Patch (60 Patches), $28
• For the fashion club captain: OPI Holiday 2025 Mini Nail Polish Set, 4-Pack, $20

Related content

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Stocks were choppy Tuesday, with market participants in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. With the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates again, rate-sensitive small caps outperformed and the Russell 2000 hit a new intraday high.

The small-cap benchmark fell short of a new record close, though, gaining 0.2% to 2,526. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.1% at 23,576) also finished in positive territory, while the broader S&P 500 (-0.09% at 6,840) and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4% at 47,560) ended in the red.

The Fed will wrap up its final meeting of 2025 tomorrow afternoon. According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in an 87% chance the central bank will lower the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% – the lowest it's been since September 2022.

But just "beneath this near certainty lies an unusual public split within the Federal Open Market Committee," says Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James. "Recent dissents highlight the challenge of balancing a cooling job market against stubborn inflation – casting fresh uncertainty over the policy path for 2026."

And the end of Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair in May adds intrigue to the rate-cut debate. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, who is the frontrunner to replace Powell, said during a Wall Street Journal CEO Council event on Tuesday that "there's plenty of room" to cut rates moving forward, "if the data suggests we could do it."

For now, Wall Street will have to rely on the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, or "dot plot", to see where committee members expect the federal funds rate to be at the end of 2026.

In September, the dot plot revealed median expectations for just one quarter-point rate cut in 2026, following three in 2025. "We don't anticipate major changes to that median view, but the growing gap between market pricing and the Fed's expected rate path is a risk worth watching," says Adam.

Job openings were little changed in October

The Federal Reserve received its last labor market update ahead of tomorrow's policy decision with this morning's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.67 million job openings in October, a tick higher than the 7.658 million job openings in September.

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, slipped to 5.05 million from 5.264 million, as did hires (to 5.149 million from 5.367 million).

"The labor market is holding on, though it remains fairly unfriendly to job seekers," says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet. "When employers aren't hiring, it makes it difficult for those without work, but also those who could otherwise move on from their current jobs to better opportunities."

The stagnation in both hiring and quits isn't great for the economy, she says, "but it's not bad enough to cause alarm. A more dramatic pullback in hiring could push the unemployment rate up, as could significant layoffs, but we're not seeing either of those in the data, yet."

Nvidia slips after Trump OKs chip sales to China

In single-stock news, Nvidia (NVDA) erased a pre-market lead to end the day down 0.3% even after President Donald Trump on Monday said the tech giant can sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China.

The chips would be available to "approved customers," wrote Trump in a Truth Social post, and the U.S. will receive 25% of the sales. "President Xi responded positively" to the news, Trump added.

But the H200 chips are two generations behind Nvidia's B300 chips, says William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji, and "it remains unclear whether there will be actual orders for these older GPUs."

Naji points out that the reversal of the H20 chips in August did not create any new sales. Additionally, China has increased its focus on domestically produced chips from companies such as Huawei and Cambricon.

Still, the analyst does expect sales of the H200 chips, which are more powerful than H20s, to materialize and drive upside to fiscal 2027 revenue estimates.

JPMorgan slides on $105 billion expense forecast

NVDA was one of 19 Dow Jones stocks that closed in the red on Tuesday, but the worst of the bunch was JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which slid 4.7% after increasing its 2026 expense forecast.

The country's biggest bank by assets under management said it expects to spend $105 billion next year, up from an estimated $95.9 billion in spending this year and analysts' forecast for $101 billion.

Marianne Lake, CEO of JPM's Consumer & Community Banking segment, said the spending will cover compensation and product marketing costs, as well as strategic investments such as AI.

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The projected increase is expected to boost the average federal tax refund amount by around $1,000 for taxpayers.

However, that benefit is not universal: The size of your tax refund, if any, will ultimately depend on tax break eligibility requirements and other factors (like your filing status, taxable income, etc.).

Here are the households set to receive a potentially higher tax refund, along with the steps you can take now to prepare.

Largest tax refunds ever?

“Tax filers could expect an extra $1,000 bump to their tax refund next year,” The Ways & Means Committee reported out last month in a press release. “[It] could be a record-breaking tax refund season.”

• The total, accumulated impact of the new law is expected to be $91 billion in additional refunds in 2026 compared to last year, according to the release.
• This potentially translates to an average tax refund of $4,151 during the 2026 filing season, up from the IRS’s average of $3,151 last year.

The House release used an analysis conducted by Piper Sandler, a financial services firm. The results were shared with the public via a financial podcast.

Like some previous studies of its kind, the Sandler analysis reveals that middle and upper-income households, specifically those earning between $60,000 and $400,000, are expected to benefit the most from the new Trump/GOP tax and spending law.

Tax refunds 2026: Bigger checks

Since the Trump tax bill was passed mid-year, new tax benefits were not withheld from paychecks in 2025. Because of this, next year’s tax refunds are expected to be bigger for those who can take advantage of the new provisions.

For instance, you might receive a higher 2026 tax refund if:

• You’re a homeowner in a high-tax state. The new tax law temporarily increased the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 annually for households with incomes of $500,000 or less.
• You’re an adult aged 65 or older. The new temporary “senior” bonus deduction may provide tax relief for those with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $250,000 or less ($175,000 if single filing).
• You’re a tipped employee or overtime worker. The new tip and overtime tax deductions allow eligible working taxpayers to receive up to $25,000 in federal deductions for the 2026 filing season (for married couples filing jointly; eligible single filers may receive up to $12,500).

Yet it’s important to remember that the anticipated $1,000 increase to tax refunds is an average estimate, and not a guarantee. Your individual financial circumstances impact your overall tax refund, if any. But if you’re anticipating a bigger 2026 tax refund, the IRS recommends steps you can take now to prepare (more on that later).

Does everyone get a bigger refund in 2026?

Some individuals might not receive a bigger tax refund in the future, but actually lose out on tax savings — even facing higher tax bills — due to the 2025 Trump/GOP tax and spending law enacted in July.

For example:

• Low-income households may lose out. As reported by Kiplinger, families earning $53,000 or less could lose an average of $65 by 2033 due to certain cuts to Medicaid and other social programs, and taxpayers earning $18,000 or less could lose 1.1% of their income by 2027.
• Most future student loan forgiveness will soon be federally taxable. This reverses the temporary tax exemption provided by the Biden-era American Rescue Plan Act. CNBC reports that a borrower with student debt of approximately $49,321 could see a tax bill increase between $5,800 to over $10,000 in the 2027 filing season.

Note: For more information on these breakouts, read Kiplinger’s report, Biggest Winners and Losers in Trump's New Tax Plan.

IRS tax refund check projection

The IRS is urging taxpayers to prepare early for the 2026 tax filing season.

“It is important for taxpayers to get ready now because the One, Big, Beautiful Bill can significantly affect federal taxes, credits, and deductions,” the federal tax agency announced in a press release late last month.

To help “avoid errors that could delay refunds,” taxpayers are urged by the IRS to gather important tax information, like:

• W-2 Forms, Forms 1099, and other key documents (though delay tax filing until all necessary information is organized).
• Bank account information, including your direct deposit account and routing numbers. Starting this filing season, the IRS is phasing out paper checks (yet limited exceptions may apply).

As Kiplinger reported, the IRS may encounter operational issues in the upcoming filing season. The agency will be operating with a significantly reduced staff this tax season, which could result in longer wait times on the phone and even delay tax refunds. By preparing early, taxpayers position themselves to potentially receive refunds more promptly.

Stay tuned.

Read More

• Are New Trump $2,000 Stimulus Payments Coming Next Year?
• Costco Sues Over Trump Tariffs: Price Impacts in 2026
• IRS Income Tax Refund Schedule: When Will Your Refund Arrive?
• 5 Ways Trump’s Tax Bill Could Boost Your Tax Refund (or Shrink It)

Question: I’ve got $10,000 from my year-end bonus, and I want to keep it safe but still earn something. Is a CD or a money market account the smarter move?

Answer: It’s a natural question to ask right now. With your bonus in hand and interest rates slipping after the Fed’s rate cuts this year, deciding where to put that $10,000 can feel surprisingly tricky.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) and money market accounts (MMAs) remain two of the safest, most popular options. Both offer FDIC/NCUA insurance, both earn interest and both protect principal. But the best choice for your $10,000 depends heavily on two things: timeline and liquidity.

Let’s break down how these accounts work today, including updated earning tables, so you can choose the smarter home for your year-end bonus.

What’s the main difference between a CD and a money market account right now?

The main difference between a CD and a money market account right now is rate certainty versus rate flexibility. A CD locks in a guaranteed APY for a set term (anywhere from three months to several years). No matter what the Fed does next month or next quarter, your rate won’t change. That predictability is valuable in a declining-rate environment like the one we’re entering.

A money market account, however, has a variable rate. APYs can adjust up or down depending on market conditions and bank pricing decisions. For savers who want liquidity and the ability to move funds anytime, MMAs offer more flexibility.

How do liquidity and access differ?

CDs restrict access while money market accounts don’t. With a CD, withdrawing before maturity typically triggers an early-withdrawal penalty. That makes CDs better for money you know you won’t need for a set amount of time.

Money market accounts allow withdrawals and transfers as needed. While some banks impose monthly transaction limits, you can generally access your cash penalty-free, making MMAs ideal for near-term goals or emergency-adjacent savings.

Are both options equally safe?

Yes, as long as you stay within insured limits. Both CDs and MMAs are insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, through the FDIC (banks) or NCUA (credit unions).

In terms of safety, they’re essentially identical.

How much a $10,000 CD earns at today's best rates

CD rates have drifted down slightly following recent Fed action. But some terms like one-year CDs remain competitive.

Earnings assume interest is compounded annually.

The biggest advantage here is the certainty: once you lock in a CD, the rate is yours regardless of economic shifts. If the Fed cuts again, as many expect, today’s 12-month yields may look unusually attractive compared with what banks offer three or six months from now. For savers wanting predictability, that’s a major benefit.

How much a $10,000 money market account earns right now

Money market accounts remain competitive even as rates cool, with many high-yield MMAs still offering around 4.25% APY. Because the rate is variable, earnings calculations below assume monthly compounding and no changes to APY over the period.

What stands out is the combination of liquidity and competitive returns. While a money market account can’t guarantee the rate won’t slip, it gives you significantly more flexibility.

Many banks also offer these accounts with low monthly fees, making them accessible for everyday savers. For short-term horizons, especially under nine months, today’s best MMAs earn slightly more than comparable CDs.

Use the tool below to quickly explore and compare some of today's top savings account offers:

CD vs. money market account returns compared

Below is how the two products compare head-to-head across common savings timelines:

Across most terms, the money market account slightly outperforms the CD, with the largest edge appearing over longer periods as compounding works in its favor.

The notable exception is the one-year CD, which is currently offering elevated rates that many analysts expect won’t last. If you’re attracted to locking in one of the last remaining CD terms with a “4-handle,” this is the window.

When a CD makes more sense

A CD is most effective when you value rate protection and you’re confident you won’t need to touch the money. For people with a fixed savings goal like an insurance premium due next year, a future home improvement project, tuition savings or wedding costs, a CD gives you exact, predictable earnings without requiring active management. CDs also make sense right before a rate-cut cycle.

Locking in a higher APY shields you from the declines we often see in variable-rate products after the Fed shifts its policy stance. If you’re someone who finds peace of mind in structured savings and guaranteed outcomes, a CD delivers clarity at a time when interest rates are in flux.

When a money market account makes more sense

A money market account is the better choice when liquidity or flexibility is your priority. This is ideal for savers who want their bonus accessible at any moment whether for emergency expenses, a home repair, a flight deal you can’t pass up or simply because you prefer not to lock up your cash.

While MMAs don’t guarantee the rate won’t drift lower, they still tend to retain strong competitiveness, especially in the online banking sector where promotional APYs remain plentiful.

If your timeline is short or uncertain, or if you’re looking for a place to keep cash while evaluating potential investment opportunities, an MMA lets you earn a solid return without sacrificing access.

How to decide between the two

The simplest way to choose is by assessing your timeline and your liquidity needs. If you know with certainty that you won’t need the money for at least 12 months, a CD may offer a slightly higher return with rate protection. If you’re unsure about your plans or may need access at any point, the money market account is the safer, more flexible pick.

You should also consider how sensitive you are to rate changes. If locking in a guaranteed APY brings peace of mind, that’s a strong argument for a CD. If you’re comfortable with the variability and you prefer being able to move money freely, an MMA offers the better balance of return and accessibility.

Final takeaway

If you’ve received a $10,000 year-end bonus, you’re entering 2026 with options. Both CDs and money market accounts are safe, federally insured, and deliver attractive yields compared with traditional savings accounts.

In today’s environment, the money market account typically comes out ahead for most time frames thanks to its liquidity and strong APYs, while the one-year CD remains a standout for its combination of guaranteed yield and rate certainty.

The right choice ultimately comes down to how soon you’ll need the money, how much flexibility you want, and whether locking in a rate before the Fed’s next move aligns with your financial strategy.

Related Content:

• Why a 5-Year CD is Your Best Bet After the Fed Meeting
• Best One-Year CD Rates
• Money Market Account vs High-Yield Savings Account

With an FSA, employees can make payroll deposits into their accounts to build a cushion to pay insurance deductibles or pay for qualifying medical expenses, or other items not covered by insurance.

Deposits are made with pre-tax dollars, before any federal or state income taxes, Social Security taxes, or Medicare taxes are withheld from your paycheck. That means your FSA deposits are not included in your taxable income. In other words, it’s essentially “tax-free.”

Want to know more? Read on.

What’s an FSA and what’s so great about it?

FSAs are employer-sponsored savings accounts that allow employees to set aside money from their paychecks, before taxes, to pay for healthcare and health-related dependent care expenses.

This tax-free money establishes a revolving, self-replenishing fund from which an employee can pay insurance deductibles, copays, and other qualified medical expenses.

Qualifying FSA expenses include, but are not limited to:

• Prescription medications and most over-the-counter medications (like cough remedies)
• Medical equipment and supplies, like monitoring devices (e.g., CPAPs), canes, hearing aids, first aid, and emergency care
• Denture and orthodontic care, like adhesives, retainers, and dental treatments like fillings and crowns
• Prescription eyeglasses and contact lenses, including over-the-counter contact lens care and maintenance supplies.

FSA downsides to watch out for

Having access to tax-free money to pay healthcare bills can be great, but it’s a good practice to keep tabs on how much you’re putting into your account.

As mentioned, the IRS has announced higher contribution limits for next year (2026): $3,400, up from $3,300 in 2025.

But if you contribute more than the FSA threshold to your account ($3,400 for 2026), your deposits lose their tax advantage and will be taxed as wages at your applicable income tax rate.

The fact that FSA deposits are made through your employer’s payroll system can act as a brake of sorts on the amounts you’re contributing.

Another reason to monitor your FSA balance is that if you don’t spend all the money in your FSA by your health plan’s year-end, the balance will be forfeited to your employer. That’s pretty harsh.

• Employers may allow employees a grace period after the plan year’s end to spend the funds, or allow the employee to roll over a certain amount (up to $680 for 2026) to the following plan year.
• But an employer isn’t required to provide that relief.
• And if an employee leaves the company, the money in their FSA account stays with the employer. That's because under IRS rules, the account belongs to the employer, not the employee.

In either case, it’s in your best interest to exhaust all your FSA account funds before the plan year ends or before you leave the company.

Is an FSA right for me?

It depends. Employers may elect to offer FSAs to employees in addition to their standard benefits package, but it’s not a requirement. In addition, only employers can sponsor FSAs, so if you’re self-employed, you’re out of luck. (There are alternatives for you, but they’re governed by different rules.)

However, FSAs can be good for people with ongoing routine medical expenses — prescription and non-prescription drugs, glasses, contact lenses, and products for their maintenance, denture and orthodontic care products, and other dental treatments.

Dependent care FSA limit 2026

Employees with child or adult dependents who require care so the employee can work can open a dependent care FSA in addition to a healthcare FSA (these are separate accounts under IRS rules).

And some good news: The dependent care FSA limit is significantly increasing for 2026.

For 2026, the maximum dependent care tax-free contribution is $7,500, up from $5,000 in 2025. Eligible expenses include:

• Childcare (day care, pre- and after-school care)
• Summer camps (not overnight)
• Babysitters or nannies (work-related)
• Adult day care for a dependent parent or spouse

Not FSA-eligible? Consider an HSA

Under IRS rules, FSAs can only be sponsored by employers as part of an employee’s health benefits package, and in fact, the account belongs to the employer. So, individuals who aren’t employed are ineligible for an FSA.

But the self-employed and others aren’t left in the cold when it comes to a tax-advantaged savings account. They can open a health savings account (HSA), with all the tax benefits of an FSA and more, provided they meet a key requirement: they must be enrolled in a qualifying high-deductible health plan (HDHP).

However, HSAs come with their own contribution limits and pros and cons. For more information, see Kiplinger’s report: An HSA Sounds Great for Taxes: Here’s Why It Might Not Be Right for You.

Read More

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Stocks trended lower throughout Monday's session as caution set in ahead of the December Fed meeting. The central bank is widely expected to announce its third straight quarter-point rate cut Wednesday afternoon. However, uncertainty remains about what's in store for interest rates and the economy in 2026.

"This week's FOMC decision could set the tone for the remainder of 2025 and beyond, shaping expectations for monetary policy, risk appetite, and market leadership," says Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

Another rate cut "would reinforce the narrative of easing financial conditions," while "any deviation from the expected path, or hawkish commentary, could recalibrate positioning and volatility as investors reassess the Fed's resolve," Hackett adds.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point – up from 67% one month ago. Odds are currently for two additional 0.25% cuts in 2026.

Wall Street will also see what the Fed expects for next year, too, with the December meeting featuring the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or "dot plot," which summarizes each member's expectations for monetary policy going forward.

In September, the dot plot revealed median expectations for just one quarter-point rate cut in 2026, following three in 2025.

At today's close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 47,739, the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 6,846, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.1% to 23,545.

Confluent soars 29% on IBM buyout buzz

Confluent (CFLT) was one of the biggest advancers on Monday, jumping 29.1% after International Business Machines (IBM, +0.4%) said it will buy the data streaming platform in a deal valued at $11 billion.

"With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI," said IBM CEO Arvind Krishna in the press release.

"A sale to IBM makes sense to us and reflects a combination of platform value (data streaming technology enabling real-time workflows, analytics) and current valuation," says Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron. And Big Blue's broad data portfolio and open-source assets "make a good fit for Confluent."

The acquisition is expected to close by mid-2026.

Paramount makes hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery

In other M&A news, Paramount Skydance (PSKY, +9.0%) is launching a hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discover (WBD, +4.4%) after the entertainment and media company announced last week that it will sell its streaming and studio assets to Netflix (NFLX, -3.4%).

Paramount said it will bypass WBD's board of directors and take its $30 per-share bid straight to shareholders, representing a 15% premium to WBD's December 5 close.

But Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon isn't so sure that'll fly. "If PSKY goes directly to shareholders with the same proposal WBD's board already rejected, we remain skeptical that shareholders would view that offer as superior to NFLX's – at minimum, it's far from a slam dunk, assuming the Board went through a rigorous evaluation process," he wrote in an early morning note.

Yoon has an Underperform (Sell) rating in PSKY, an Outperform (Buy) rating on NFLX and a Market Perform (Hold) rating on WBD.

Carvana to join the S&P 500

Elsewhere, Carvana (CVNA) jumped 12.1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said it will add the online used car retailer to the S&P 500, effective ahead of the December 22 open.

Ireland-based building materials firm CRH (CRH, +5.9%) and HVAC specialist Comfort Systems USA (FIX, -1.2%) will also join the broad-market index.

The three stocks will replace LKQ (LKQ, -2.0%), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS, -0.9%) and Mohawk Industries (MHK, -1.8%).

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The December Fed meeting concluded on December 10, with the central bank issuing its third straight quarter-point rate cut.

The central bank also released its Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, which remained more or less the same from September, but gave more optimistic outlooks for the economy and inflation.

"Powell got out his three wood and hit it right done the middle," says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. "The market got the cut it wanted and although a January cut isn't the base case, by no means did they put cold water on that potential move. Then the cherry on top was a stronger forecasted economy next year, never something we'd consider a bad thing."

The Kiplinger team is reported live on the December Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for all the updates.

Best Stocks to Buy for Fed Rate Cuts | Falling Interest Rates: What They Mean for Homeowners, Savers and Investors | What's Next for the Fed — as an Institution?

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from December 9 to December 10, marks the final gathering of 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold its first meeting of the new year on January 27 to 28.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.

Here is the full Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

• January 27 to 28
• March 17 to 18
• April 28 to 29
• June 16 to 17
• July 28 to 29
• September 15 to 16
• October 27 to 28
• December 8 to 9

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the December Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2025 FOMC voting committee consists of:

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell
• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
• Fed Governor Michael Barr
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook
• Fed Governor Stephen Miran
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller
• New York Fed President John Williams
• Boston Fed President Susan Collins
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
• Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid

In 2026, the presidents from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up in May.

- Karee Venema

How can you invest for lower interest rates?

With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates at its final meeting of 2025, many investors may be wondering how they can prepare their portfolios.

One way is to seek out high-quality growth stocks, which tend to see outsize benefits from lower interest rates.

This happens for two reasons, says Kiplinger contributor Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA. For one, lower rates make capital cheaper and "young, fast-growing companies often rely on external funding."

Additionally, lower interest rates boost the current value of future profits, which increases valuations for firms with long-term earnings potential.

Read more: How to Invest for Fall Rate Cuts by the Fed

Markets are optimistic about a rate cut

Equity index futures pointed to a higher open for Fed Week Monday morning, following through on solid gains for the first week of December. The S&P 500 closed higher for a fourth straight session and its ninth out of 10 on Friday.

"The stock market may have bounced back strongly from its November pullback," E*TRADE Managing Director Chris Larkin observes, "but a new up leg to its rally is still a work in progress."

According to Larkin, what the FOMC does and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell say on Wednesday "will likely determine whether the S&P 500’s October record highs turn out to be genuine resistance level or just the latest notch on the bull market’s belt."

FedWatch shows a near-90% probability the FOMC will cut the target range for the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, following similar moves in September and October. As Larkin notes, recent incoming economic data highlight both "ongoing labor-market softness and sticky inflation.

So lower interest rates at this meeting "might not be a slam dunk" despite market optimism. "As is often the case, though," Larkin concludes, "Chair Powell’s press conference could play a big role in shaping the market’s short-term response."

– David Dittman

The Fed's windshield is foggy

The three main U.S. equity indexes turned negative less than an hour into Monday's trading session as investors continue to process incoming data from the economic calendar.

The S&P 500 was down about 0.2% a little more than 50 minutes after the opening bell but remained within 0.5% of its October 28 record closing high of 6,890.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.

We should probably expect a little intraday up-and-down this week, which will still amount to not much compared to movement in expectations around what the Fed will do this week.

FedWatch has been all over the place amid unprecedented data-blindness due to a record-long government shutdown. Today, it shows a near 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

As recently as November 19 markets were about 70% certain the FOMC would hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% after cutting at its September and October meetings.

“To my knowledge, it’s totally unprecedented,” Peterson Institute of International Economics Senior Fellow David Wilcox told Quartz.

Wilcox said the present situation is "off the charts" and compared the Fed to a person driving with a foggy windshield.

– David Dittman

For whom the Fed bids

As Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal notes, nobody cares about the independence of the U.S. central bank amid lingering questions about what's next for the Fed as an institution during President Donald Trump's second run in the White House.

The White House has already openly discussed whether it would fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell as it lobbied for lower interest rates through most of 2025. And there's a pending Supreme Court case that will resolve Gov. Lisa Cook's future on the Fed's board.

"There's a ton of talk on Wall Street and in the media that Fed independence is at risk of going away," Weisenthal observes. "That is definitely a valid concern."

He cites Trump's public criticism of the FOMC and the fact that the president named the chair of his own Council of Economic Advisors to fill a recent vacancy on the board.

And Trump will soon name a successor to Powell: "One likely candidate is Kevin Hassett, and there is a fear that Hassett will be there to do Trump's bidding, rather than assiduously pursue the Fed's dual mandate."

At the same time: "There's not much evidence that this is a real concern in the market right now." Weisenthal quotes Standard Chartered macro strategist Steve Englander at length but the bottom line is right here:

"Questions have been raised about Kevin Hassett’s credibility with markets and within the FOMC," Englander writes, "but the questions are not showing up so far in inflation breakevens, which are close to post-2024 election lows."

As Englander explains, "If Hassett as Federal Reserve Board Chair is expected to compromise inflation outcomes, this is where we would expect to see these concerns most clearly."

– David Dittman

The first half of the first day of Fed Week

There's a split among the "bullish" sectors – communication services, financial stocks, industrials and technology stocks – in the first half of Monday's trading session. The first two are in the red, the other two are in the green.

And all three main U.S. equity indexes have stabilized with modest losses of 0.2% to 0.3%.

Action in the bond market is similarly stable, with the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note up to 3.602% from 3.564% on Friday. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up to 4.178% from 4.139%, the 30-year from 4.822% from 4.792%.

FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has dipped from 89.9% to 87.6%.

What's moving markets while we're watching the Fed? Probably Netflix (NFLX), which faces a hostile challenge from Paramount Skydance (PSKY) as it tries to complete its next eyeball-catching expansion with the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discover (WBD).

NFLX, a leader among communication services stocks, is down more than 4% as of midday Monday. The stock recently split 10 for 1.

Tech stocks were up but off their highs after International Business Machines (IBM) announced an $11 billion deal to acquire data-infrastructure firm Confluent (CFLT), as markets continue to ask whether we're in an AI bubble.

– David Dittman

The Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve

The Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments today in a case many observers consider a preview of the upcoming matter of whether President Donald Trump can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

The White House is asking the high court to overturn a precedent established in a 1935 case, Humphrey's Executor v. United States, that limits presidential authority to remove the heads of independent agencies.

As Reuters reports, during today's questioning Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh asked Solicitor General D. John Sauer, arguing on behalf of President Trump, about implications for the U.S. central bank.

"How would you distinguish the Federal Reserve from agencies such as the Federal Trade Commission?" Justice Kavanaugh asked. The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Trump's attempt to fire Cook on January 21.

In May, the Court issued an opinion suggesting at least six justices would rule against the president. It did not explicitly overrule Humphrey's Executor, but it did allow him to fire two members of other federal agencies' boards.

And the Court offered a two-sentence summary on the question it will begin to answer next month.

"Finally," the six-member majority wrote in an unsigned opinion, "respondents Gwynne Wilcox and Cathy Harris contend that arguments in this case necessarily implicate the constitutionality of for-cause removal protections for members of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors or other members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

"We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States."

– David Dittman

Does Gen Z even care about the Fed?

In its most romantic guise it's the foundation of a whole new financial system where things like the next Fed meeting simply don't matter. In more prosaic terms what cryptocurrency is and how bitcoin works boil down to digital money.

At the same time, young people recognize what's happening here: crypto is growing and maturing. More evidence comes from an October 2025 YouGov survey surfaced by Marketwatch.com today.

According to YouGov (pdf), 26% of young men own cryptocurrency, and 28% own any crypto-based asset such as individual tokens and/or coins, crypto-based ETFs, or both. Meanwhile, 21% say they have a 401(k), Roth IRA or similar retirement fund. And 24% say they hold individual stocks.

This is consistent with similar findings from YouGov reported by Fortune in February: "Gen Z investors are four times more likely to own crypto than retirement accounts."

To be clear, these are the crypto trends we're watching in 2026.

– David Dittman

Certainty, uncertainty and the Fed

The three main U.S. equity indexes continued to head lower Monday afternoon amid rising volatility (as measured by the market's "fear index") and a lot of known unknowns.

"The uncertainty of the nature of the Fed cut expected this Wednesday has put the market in a wait-and-see mode," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes.

That 87.4% (and falling, if ever so slightly) probability is "clouded by the expectations that the cut will be highly contentious internally and whether the rhetoric will be hawkish enough to bring serious doubts about any further cuts until Chairman Powell is replaced in May."

Navellier notes as well that absence "of complete economic data due to the catch-up from the extended government shutdown also makes reaching conclusions difficult."

He says too that a developing "trend in interest rates is becoming more challenging," highlighting the move in the 2-year U.S. and the 10-year U.S. government yields to their highest levels in more than a month and since March, respectively.

"The VIX had dropped to 15.3 premarket, the lowest in three months," Navellier adds, "and has jumped back to 16.8 in an apparent caution over the upcoming Fed cut."

While the trend remains cautiously positive, he concludes, uncertainty will continue until after Wednesday's FOMC decision and commentary from the outgoing Fed chair.

– David Dittman

About the Fed's data deficit

Much is being made of the economic data deficit the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States has created for the Federal Reserve.

A lot of the ups and downs for expectations about what our central bankers will do with the federal funds rate have been fueled by the absence of information about jobs and inflation.

Now imagine a world where data about the holdings of the biggest investors, traders and speculators on the planet across the full spectrum of financial assets – including buy and sell transactions – is available in real time.

Among the crypto trends we're watching in 2026 is "integration and convergence": where "TradFi" and "DeFi" combine to make things more efficient for everyone.

OK, look, yes, we're not contemplating real-time Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (the dream is, of course, PCE…).

But at least some market participants were limited by the delay in commitment of traders reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

And the fast-growing and rapidly maturing crypto industry shows us how to solve problems like that, for the long term.

– David Dittman

Does the Fed need to think about deflation?

"This week will be all about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says. Still, there are notable names on the earnings calendar, including Oracle (ORCL, +1.4%) and Broadcom (AVGO, +2.8%).

Navellier doesn't expect the FOMC to signal more cuts to interest rates in its post-meeting statement "no matter what their dot plot signals" because voting members remain "very uncomfortable with the delay in economic data from the federal government shutdown."

At the same time, the Fed must cut the target range for the federal funds rate two more times – in addition to a 25-basis-point move this week – "and move to a 'neutral' rate."

According to Navellier, "The inflation risk has fizzled, and due to falling home prices, excess rental properties, and falling crude oil prices, if anything, there is a potential deflation risk that the Fed must consider."

As of Monday's closing bell, FedWatch shows an 89.4% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting.

And we'll be there all the way through to the other side of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

– David Dittman

Stocks start Fed Week on a negative note

Stocks trended lower throughout Monday's session as caution set in ahead of the December Fed meeting. The central bank is widely expected to announce its third straight quarter-point rate cut Wednesday afternoon. However, uncertainty remains about what's in store for interest rates and the economy in 2026.

"This week's FOMC decision could set the tone for the remainder of 2025 and beyond, shaping expectations for monetary policy, risk appetite, and market leadership," says Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

Another rate cut "would reinforce the narrative of easing financial conditions," while "any deviation from the expected path, or hawkish commentary, could recalibrate positioning and volatility as investors reassess the Fed's resolve," Hackett adds.

At today's close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 47,739, the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 6,846, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.1% to 23,545.

Read more: Stocks Slip to Start Fed Week: Stock Market Today

Four rate cuts in the next 12 months?

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, says it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Federal Reserve to cut rates up to four times over the next 12 months.

"Simply put, real rates, or Fed funds minus inflation, is too high," explains Helfstein. "That will ultimately drive the Fed in the coming meetings. Powell noted that inflation ex-tariffs was much closer to target than the headline number and risks to the employment mandate are rising."

As such, the Fed is expected to cut rates this week and Chair Powell will likely warn that future rate cuts are no guarantee. "This really should not be surprising nor trigger a market move, but it might," says the strategist. "They are going to be data dependent, and as of now, data favors lower rates."

The bottom line, he points out, is that the Fed appears to be on a slow, sustained path toward lower rates. This and strong earnings will likely keep the wind in the stock market's sail.

Looking ahead to 2026, Helfstein believes tech stocks will continue to perform well, but a broader rotation will benefit infrastructure and industrial stocks, as well as utilities.

- Karee Venema

Stock futures signal a lower start on Tuesday

Stock futures are trading cautiously lower ahead of Tuesday's open. At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq-100 is off 0.2%.

As for single stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) is up 0.3% in electronic trading after President Trump said the tech giant could sell its H200 AI chips to China in exchange for the U.S. receiving a 25% cut of the sales.

And alternative asset management firm Ares Management (ARES) is nearly 8% higher on news it will replace snack maker Kellanova (K), which Mars is acquiring, in the S&P 500, effective ahead of the December 11 open.

- Karee Venema

What is the greater risk to the economy: inflation or the labor market?

The Federal Reserve has spent the past several months trying to balance sticky inflation with signs of a major slowdown in the labor market, says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.

This isn't anything new, he adds. Remember, the Fed has a dual mandate, as established by a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, of maximum employment and stable prices.

But more recently, it's been an even tougher challenge.

Why? For one, says Schutte, there's less information available. Even "before the government shutdown, conflicting indicators of persistent inflation posed by tariffs versus a softening labor market and robust economic growth had already muddied the long-term economic outlook," he notes.

Additionally, economic divides have widened in recent years due to higher interest rates. Schutte says growth in areas that are sensitive to interest rates, including manufacturing and housing, has slowed, while higher-income investors have benefited.

This "K-shaped" economy makes "the Fed's job harder, as a policy that boosts one group may inadvertently drag down the other," Schutte explains. So, while the central bank is expected to cut rates by a quarter-percentage point this week, he believes there will likely be dissent among committee members.

- Karee Venema

Related: Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: A Good September Report Hides Ongoing Weakness

Who appointed Jerome Powell as Fed chair?

Jerome Powell assumed the role of Fed chair on February 5, 2018, after being nominated by then-President Donald Trump, who was serving his first term in the White House.

Powell's initial four-year stint as head of the Federal Reserve ended in 2022, but he was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, after being nominated by then-President Joe Biden.

Powell initially joined the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012 after he was nominated by then-President Barack Obama.

While Powell's second term as Fed chair will expire in May 2026, he can remain on the Fed's board until January 2028.

- Karee Venema

Job openings were unchanged in October

The Fed got its last labor market update ahead of tomorrow's policy announcement with this morning's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.67 million job openings in October, a tick higher than the 7.658 million job openings in September.

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, slipped to 5.05 million from 5.264 million, as did hires (to 5.149 million from 5.367 million).

"The labor market is holding on, though it remains fairly unfriendly to job seekers," says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet. "When employers aren't hiring, it makes it difficult for those without work, but also those who could otherwise move on from their current jobs to better opportunities."

The stagnation in both hiring and quits isn't great for the economy, she says, "but it's not bad enough to cause alarm. A more dramatic pullback in hiring could push the unemployment rate up, as could significant layoffs, but we're not seeing either of those in the data, yet."

- Karee Venema

Time to review your portfolio as the Fed lowers rates

No matter how you feel about the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting campaign, it's important to prepare your portfolio for lower interest rates, says Anne Kates Smith, executive editor of Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine.

"The good news for investors is that lower interest rates are largely positive for stocks — even in the second year of a rate-cutting cycle," she writes. Real estate, financials, tech and health care are among the sectors that tend to perform well in the second year of rate cuts, while mid- and small-cap stocks offer attractive options as well.

- Karee Venema

Read more: How to Position Your Portfolio for Lower Interest Rates

Will the Fed cut rates in December?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its December 9-10 meeting as inflation holds steady and downside risks to the labor market remain.

As of December 9, CME Group FedWatch showed futures traders are pricing in an 89.6% probability the FOMC will lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark its lowest level since September 2022.

- Karee Venema

Should you open a CD ahead of the Fed announcement?

Demand for certificates of deposit (CDs) has been on the rise in recent years, thanks to elevated interest rates, which weighed on stock market returns and had investors seeking out less-risky options.

With the Fed expected to cut rates again tomorrow, now could be an ideal time to lock in attractive yields on CDs.

The difference in yields on short-term and long-term CDs is minimal at the moment, so if you do decide to open a certificate of deposit, your choice between the two could rest with how long you're able to lock up your cash.

Remember that when putting your money into certificates of deposit, you're unable to access it until the CD matures. If you do withdraw funds ahead of time, you'll be charged a fee.

Read more: Should You Get a Long-Term or Short-Term CD Before the Next Fed Meeting?

The policy path for 2026 remains uncertain, says Raymond James CIO

The Fed will wrap up its final meeting of 2025 tomorrow afternoon and Wall Street is widely expecting the central bank to cut rates for a third straight time.

But just "beneath this near certainty lies an unusual public split within the Federal Open Market Committee," says Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James. "Recent dissents highlight the challenge of balancing a cooling job market against stubborn inflation – casting fresh uncertainty over the policy path for 2026."

And the end of Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair in May adds intrigue to the rate-cut debate. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, who is the frontrunner to replace Powell, said during a Wall Street Journal CEO Council event on Tuesday that "there's plenty of room" to cut rates moving forward "if the data suggests we could do it."

For now, Wall Street will have to rely on the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, or "dot plot", to see where committee members expect the federal funds rate to be at the end of 2026.

In September, the dot plot revealed median expectations for just one quarter-point rate cut in 2026, following three in 2025. "We don't anticipate major changes to that median view, but the growing gap between market pricing and the Fed's expected rate path is a risk worth watching," says Adam.

- Karee Venema

How well do you know the Fed?

Fed meetings have become key events on Wall Street after inflation hit a pandemic-induced 40-year peak in 2022 – which forced the central bank into an aggressive rate-hiking campaign that lifted the federal funds rate to its highest level in more than two decades.

But how well do you know the Fed?

With the next Fed announcement on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve and how its actions impact you and your money.

Quiz: How Well Do You Know the Fed?

A reality check on fixed income and Fed rate cuts

"What does the Federal Reserve's rate-reduction initiative mean in the short run for your fixed-income holdings?," asks Jeffrey Kosnett, editor of Kiplinger Investing for Income.

If past is precedent, some short-term upheaval. After the Fed cut rates by one full percentage point in late 2024, "the year ended with bond markets and fund returns in retreat," says Kosnett. And with sticky inflation and a weak dollar, "there is no sign of fading economic momentum to the degree that traditionally provokes big flows into Treasury bonds and forces those yields down."

Still, investors should hang tight, Kosnett advises, and seek out potential opportunities in places such as non-traditional bond funds and municipal bonds.

- Karee Venema

Read more: What Fed Rate Cuts Mean For Fixed-Income Investors

Another near certainty on Wednesday: Powell's purple tie

The odds of a December rate cut are high. It's also a near-certainty that Fed Chair Powell will be wearing a purple tie during Wednesday's press conference.

That's because Powell always wears a purple tie … and there's a reason for it.

During an early April Q&A session with journalists at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference, Powell was asked about the significance of his purple ties.

"At the beginning, the only significance was that I like purple ties," Powell replied. At his next press conference, he said he went to reach for a red or blue tie and thought, "Maybe not … so I wind up wearing purple."

He said now it's become "a thing," and it supports the fact that the Fed "is strictly non-political" and "bipartisan," and purple is a good color for that.

"Plus, I like purple ties," Powell concluded.

- Karee Venema

Small caps outperformed on Tuesday

Stocks were choppy Tuesday, with market participants in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. With the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates again, rate-sensitive small caps outperformed and the Russell 2000 hit a new intraday high.

The small-cap benchmark fell short of a new record close, though, gaining 0.2% to 2,526. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.1% at 23,576) also finished in positive territory, while the broader S&P 500 (-0.09% at 6,840) and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4% at 47,560) ended in the red.

Read more: JPMorgan's Drop Drags on the Dow: Stock Market Today

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, December 10.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, the committee wrote in its October statement. "Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated."

As such, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

This time around, Goldman Sachs economists say the statement "will likely borrow the 'extent and timing of additional adjustments' language used in December 2024 under quite similar circumstances to convey that the bar for any further cuts will be somewhat higher."

They also expect more dissents than at the October Fed meeting, where Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a half-percentage point cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid supported a pause.

The economists say one other committee member could join Schmid in voting to keep rates unchanged at this meeting and believe that up to five central bankers could issue soft dissents on the Fed's monetary policy choices for this year.

What's a soft dissent? The Fed's December meetings allow all committee members to " tell you what they thought was appropriate policy for the year that just ended," explains Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal. "In other words, do they agree with what just happened? Most years, this is a formality — everyone writes down whatever rate the committee settled on. But when it isn't, you get something fascinating: soft dissents. Officials who didn't vote against the decision (or weren't even voting members) quietly register that they would have done something different. "

"Dissents might actually be somewhat helpful to Powell in getting across that the bar for another rate cut will be higher," Goldman Sachs economists write.

- Karee Venema

Stock futures signal a quiet open on Fed Day

Stock futures are little changed Wednesday as Wall Street awaits this afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were up slightly, while the Nasdaq-100 was signaling a lower open.

There is some notable price action among individual stocks, though. Braze (BRZE) is 16% higher in pre-market trading after the consumer engagement platform reported a fiscal third-quarter revenue beat. And Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) is down nearly 4% after the restaurant chain's fiscal first-quarter top-line miss.

- Karee Venema

Trump to conduct final interviews with potential Powell replacements

President Donald Trump said he will begin the final interviews with the top candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.

While Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, is widely believed to be the frontrunner, media reports suggest Trump and his team will meet today with Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 through 2011.

On Tuesday, Trump told POLITICO that he would only choose someone to replace Powell who is committed to cutting interest rates.

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

President Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell has quieted down in recent months, given that the Fed chair's term is up on May 15, 2026.

Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, says there likely won't be any surprises at the December meeting, but notes that "the biggest thing happening in the background is the question of who will lead the Fed."

He expects Fed Chair Powell to become "a lame duck fairly quickly," with whoever is chosen to replace him to become somewhat of a "shadow Fed chair ... offering opinions or taking potshots from the sidelines."

For what it's worth, Powell's term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.

- Karee Venema

Where can I watch Fed Chair Powell's press conference?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

Labor costs rise at a slower-than-expected pace in Q3

The Federal Reserve was dealt a small inflation win this morning.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures labor costs, rose 0.8% from Q2 to Q3. The shutdown-delayed data came in below economists' estimate for a 0.9% increase.

Year over year, the ECI was up 3.5%.

The report shows that "the labor market is not a source of excess inflationary pressure at present," says Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House. But the data "offered additional evidence that the gradual softening in the labor market is translating to slower compensation growth."

- Karee Venema

The December rate cut will be a hawkish one, says SWBC CIO

Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, believes today's rate cut will be a hawkish one.

"The Fed is divided on how to proceed with rate cuts in 2026 given the delicate balance between job market weakness and still elevated inflation," says Brigati. "There is also uncertainty about the new Fed chair, and that may also add to the central bank's reluctance to make any major rate moves in the months leading up to Chair Powell's term ending."

As such, the central bank is unlikely to signal any additional rate cuts for early 2026. And Brigati thinks the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the first half of 2026, even amid pressure from doves, including Powell's eventual successor.

"We remain concerned about a potential inflation resurgence," explains the CIO. "Price data has stayed stubbornly high, consumer spending — particularly among higher-income households — shows little sign of slowing, and a more accommodative Fed stance to counter labor market weakness could reignite demand and add inflationary pressure."

Investors need to "stay alert," Brigati advises, and continue to rebalance portfolios following this year's strong showing from tech stocks. He says investors shouldn't abandon these high-growth stocks; rather, they need to develop a strategy "to cushion against volatility and position for opportunity."

- Karee Venema

Where have all the Fed speakers been?

The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. Since Saturday, November 29, and until Thursday, December 11, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits the extent they can talk about the economy and interest rates.

These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.

Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.

Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2027.

- David Dittman

Stocks are mixed ahead of FOMC announcement

With about 45 minutes to go until the latest policy announcement from the FOMC, the main indexes are mixed. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.5% on strength from financial stocks American Express (AXP) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

The broader S&P 500 is 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.2%.

Over in the bond market, the 2-year Treasury yield is off 2.7 basis points to 3.586%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is down 2.6 basis points at 4.16%. A basis point = 0.01%.

- Karee Venema

What savers should do after the latest Fed rate cut

As the Federal Reserve wraps up its final meeting of the year, it's a good time for savers to take stock of where their money sits and what adjustments might make sense heading into the new year.

"After the Fed issued rate cuts this year, APYs on savings accounts dropped. Adding to uncertainty for savers is the fact that there will be a new Fed chair next year when Jerome Powell's term ends in May. However, it isn't all doom and gloom. Some savings accounts still offer substantial gains, helping you reach your short-term savings goals," says Sean Jackson, personal finance writer at Kiplinger.

And Sean is right. A rate cut doesn't change APYs overnight. Many of the top online banks were still offering yields in the low-to-mid-4% range throughout 2025.

By late 2025, savings rates remained elevated compared to pre-hiking-cycle norms, though they had eased off their absolute peaks, signaling a gradual, not dramatic, cooling. For savers, that means there's still time to capitalize on relatively high returns before yields drift lower.

To brace for the uncertainty 2026 brings, read Smart Money Moves Savers Should Make in 2026.

- Carla Ayers

The Fed decision is in

As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its December meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Three Fed officials dissented from the latest rate cut

There were three FOMC committee members who voted against today's rate cut. Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported lowering the federal funds rate by a half-percentage point, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee supported a pause.

These dissents are "feeding the narrative that the Fed could be on hold after this, if there is so much internal disagreement now," says Jim Patterson, managing editor of the Kiplinger Letter.

- Karee Venema

What changed in the December FOMC statement

Changes to the FOMC's latest policy statement include the following:

Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. (Previously read: Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments.)

In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. (Previously read: In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.)

The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis. (Previously read: The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.)

- Karee Venema

What did the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections show?

Federal Open Market Committee members left their projections for interest rates unchanged compared to September. According to the dot plot, the Fed is forecasting just one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

The group expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to be slightly higher this year and next than it forecast in September, at 1.7% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, inflation expectations drifted lower, too, with committee members now expecting PCE inflation to finish 2025 at 2.9% vs its previous estimate of 3.0% and end 2026 at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in September.

Expectations for the unemployment rate were unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026.

You can see the FOMC's full Summary of Economic Projections here.

- Karee Venema

Powell says the Fed will resume Treasury securities purchases

"In light of continued tightening in money market interest rates relative to our administered rates and other indicators of reserve market conditions, the committee judged that reserve balances have declined to ample levels," says Powell.

As such, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities, namely bills. The FOMC will begin with $40 billion in purchases in the first month and "may remain elevated for a few months."

- Karee Venema

SEP suggests only moderate rate cuts from here

In his opening statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reported that the Fed expects inflation to end the year at 2.9%, based on its preferred gage, and then ease to 2.4% at the end of 2026. He also said that the Fed now expects U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% next year, which is a bit stronger than the central bank had previously projected for 2026.

Powell noted that the labor market has weakened recently, with hiring likely down due to reduced immigration. He also shared his colleagues' average projection for where the Fed's benchmark interest rate is going, with a median estimate of 3.4% at the end of 2026 and 3.1% at the end of 2027.

Those are just estimates, not firm plans, but they suggest only modest additional interest rate cuts from the Fed's current range of 3.5%-3.75%.

- Jim Patterson

Powell agrees that the Fed is basically "on hold" for now

Asked in a follow-up question whether the Fed's modest projections of further rate cuts means that the central bank is "on hold" now, Powell basically said yes.

He indicated that the Fed's benchmark rate is now likely somewhere close to the "neutral" level that neither stimulates the economy nor restrains it to lower inflation.

No one knows precisely where that theoretical neutral point is, but the fact that Powell believes that the Fed has gotten fairly close to it certainly indicates that he won't be in a hurry to extend the string of cuts the Fed has made in recent months.

- Jim Patterson

Market participants aren't too shaken by Powell's rate-cut outlook

There have been several times in recent memory when Chair Powell's cautious take on future rate cuts has sparked a stock market selloff, but we're not seeing that so far today.

At last check, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.8% and the S&P 500 is 0.4% higher. The Nasdaq Composite is hovering around the flatline.

- Karee Venema

While there were more dissents than usual, Powell says all members agree that inflation is too high

Asked about the elevated level of dissenting members of the Federal Open Market Committee who did not support today's quarter-point rate cut, Powell emphasized that everyone on the FOMC agrees that inflation is still too high, and that there are also risks to economic growth right now.

Addressing those two problems puts the Fed in a bind in deciding whether to cut rates to combat inflation, or lower them to boost the economy and hiring.

It sounds from Powell's remarks on the Fed's deliberations this month that today's quarter-point cut was an attempt to balance those competing concerns.

"You can't do two things at once," he noted. All of that certainly fits with the signals that the Fed will be waiting for a bit now before cutting rates again in the new year.

- Jim Patterson

The bond market sees the federal funds rate as closer to neutral, says GammaRoad Capital Partners CIO

The bond market isn't making a major move in reaction to today's Fed decision. At last check, the 2-year Treasury yield was down 5 basis points at 3.563% and the 10-year Treasury yield was 2 basis points lower at 4.166%.

"Treasury futures' muted initial reaction to today's rate cut at both the short and the long end suggests that the bond market now views policy as much closer to the proper neutral rate," says Jordan Rizzuto, CIO at GammaRoad Capital Partners. "This is further evidenced by the tightening of the spread between the two-year yield and the policy rate. Since the Fed's previous rate cut, we have seen long yields steadily rising, and we expect that any dovish guidance in the press conference will renew this recent upward pressure on long rates, as further cuts could be interpreted by bond traders as excessive."

- Karee Venema

The labor market remains a concern for Fed officials

"The labor market has continued to cool gradually ... maybe just a touch more gradually than we thought" in October, Powell said, in explaining why the Fed opted to cut rates again today, when he had suggested at the previous meeting that it might stand pat in December due to a lack of economic data during the government shutdown.

"It doesn't feel like a hot economy" where strong job creation could lead to renewed inflation pressures, he said.

He is not sounding any alarms about the job market, but it does appear that there is a note of concern about hiring among Fed officials.

- Jim Patterson

Chair Powell believes the inflationary impact from tariffs could peak in Q1

Powell expects the inflationary impact of new tariffs to peak in the first quarter of 2026, barring new tariff announcements.

"It takes some months ... quite a while for an individual tariff to take effect," the Fed chair said.

If the FOMC is right about that, then inflation from goods should ease later in the new year, and help lower the overall inflation rate. He noted earlier in his remarks that services costs have been cooling, but rises in goods linked to Washington's new tariff regime have kept the headline inflation number uncomfortably high.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the White House won't roll out additional duties on imported goods and scramble that rosy scenario.

- Jim Patterson

Powell says the Fed is committed to 2% inflation

"We're committed to 2% inflation and we'll deliver 2% inflation," Powell promised, when asked why the Fed is cutting interest rates when inflation is still above its 2% target. "If you get away from tariffs, inflation is in the low 2s," he estimated, and he noted that the Fed can't influence U.S. trade policy.

If the price bump from tariffs turns out to be a one-time issue, as the Fed expects, then Powell said he is confident that overall inflation will get back close to 2%, from its current level near 3%.

- Jim Patterson

Why is Powell worried about job growth?

Asked about concerns on job growth, Powell explains "it's very difficult to estimate job growth in real time," and recently there's been "an overcount," as indicated by revisions on job reports.

Based on recent numbers and revisions, he says, we could be in a place of negative job creation, and in a world where job creation is negative, the chair says, "we have to watch that very carefully."

- Alexandra Svokos

Powell on AI

On the topic of AI and whether it is leading to job losses, Powell allowed that that might be happening, but probably at a minor level right now, despite some prominent layoff announcements from big companies that cited greater reliance on AI.

Across the economy, job losses appear to be small, with relatively few people filing new claims for unemployment benefits. Powell noted that historically, new technologies often prompt fears of automation replacing human workers, but they normally end up making the human workforce more productive in the long run.

Still, he noted that the Fed is on guard against further deterioration in the labor market as part of its dual mandate to keep prices stable and maintain full employment.

- Jim Patterson

Powell on his replacement

Asked about what he hopes his legacy as Fed chair will be as his tenure draws to a close, Powell had a simple message, that he wants the economy to be in a good place when he makes way for whoever his successor turns out to be. That means low unemployment and inflation "under control."

Those happen to be the Fed's two institutional mandates all of the time, but considering the creeping concerns about whether the job market is weakening and whether inflation will behave next year, you can't blame Powell for patting himself on the back if he manages to reach those two objectives by the time he hands off leadership of the Fed next spring.

- Jim Patterson

Job creation, price stability - and wealth inequality

Powell discussed the concept that higher-net-worth and income folks are driving consumption, noting that "it's clearly a thing," especially as asset values, including housing and securities, are high, and the people who own those assets are typically those at the "higher end of income and wealth." (The question and his answer allude to a K-shaped economy.)

Is that sustainable, that the top-third of Americans are driving "way more" than a third of consumption? He muses, somewhat ominously, that's "a good question."

And that's why, he clarifies, he and the FOMC are so focused on building price stability and a strong labor market, as those factors help lower-income and net-worth people. A strong labor market, particularly over a long period, he said, is important for wage growth for people in the lower quartile.

- Alexandra Svokos

The Fed can't save the housing market

While many Americans look to the Fed for lower interest rates they hope will bring more affordable housing, there's little water in that well. For one thing, mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury more closely than the Fed.

For another, though, there are factors beyond rates at play in the housing market that are driving up costs. Primarily, there's the problem of supply. Housing supply is low for two reasons: First, because America simply hasn't built enough in recent years. Second, because people aren't moving ... because their mortgage rates are so low from the post-pandemic period, they don't want to sell their house just to buy a house with a high price and high mortgage rate.

So, yes, it's something of a vicious circle the Fed will get blamed for. But until more housing is built, it's hard to see a way out of rising home prices, even if mortgage rates go down.

- Alexandra Svokos

What investors need to do after today's Fed meeting

Today's Fed meeting revealed "quite disparate points of view" among FOMC members that highlight "unanswered questions we're all asking about where the economy is headed next year," says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.

The economy is in a delicate state right now, which could lead to weakness or higher inflation 2026, he adds. "This narrow balance is driving internal divisions within the Fed and more dissents."

And investors need to prepare their portfolios for these uncertainties, Schutte advises. "We’re encouraging investors to return to the fundamentals of investing, which means a focus on diversification and relative valuations – with an eye toward intermediate to longer-term relative returns."

For folks looking for a jumping-off point on how to position their portfolios, these core stocks are solid, long-term investments that can provide stable returns and steady growth. And these exchange-traded funds make our list of the best ETFs to buy for 2026 because they possess structural characteristics that make them attractive buy-and-hold options.

- Karee Venema

Markets get a boost from the Fed

All three main U.S. equity indexes closed higher on Fed Day following what many market participants may regard as an ideal scenario for the economy and the stock market described by the Federal Reserve.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 1.1% at 48,057. The S&P 500 added 0.7% to 6,886, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3% to 23,654.

The Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections (pdf) reflects both concerns about the jobs market and persistent inflation as well as rosier growth expectations.

The median forecast shows 2.3% GDP growth in 2026, up from 1.8% in September, core inflation of 2.5%, down from 2.6%, and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Altogether, it adds up to only one rate cut in 2026.

The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note ticked lower to 3.546% from 3.613% on Tuesday. The 10-year yield was down to 4.155% from 4.186%, and the 30-year was at 4.794% vs 4.809%.

The average year-end 2026 price target for the S&P 500 is up from around 6,500 in early September to 7,269 as of December 9, notes LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist.

Turnquist cites the AI boom, stimulus from President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill and easing monetary policy as "key catalysts" for even more upside.

"A bottom-up analysis," he elaborates, "which aggregates analyst price targets for individual S&P 500 components, suggests the index could reach 7,900 by the end of next year."

– David Dittman

What's next for the Fed? FHN Financial's senior economist explains

Today's decision to cut rates was not unanimous, says Sophia Kearney-Lederman, senior economist at FHN Financial. And the dot plot showed that there were four soft dissents, "meaning four additional non-voters did not support the cut at the December meeting and would have preferred to leave rates unchanged."

Kearney-Lederman says talk will now turn to what's next for the Fed. "As Chair Powell said in the press conference, 'All across the Committee, people see the picture pretty similarly, but see the risks quite differently.'"

While the median projection for interest rates at the end of 2026 was unchanged from September, the range of forecasts widened, she notes, adding that the closer the federal funds rate gets to neutral, the slower the pace of rate cuts will be.

The economist believes "the focus will now shift to the great deal of data to be released between now and the next FOMC meeting" in late January, though "as Chair Powell pointed out in the press conference ... there are likely to be some distortions to the data. This means Wall Street and the Fed will remain in wait-and-see mode.

- Karee Venema

Stocks notched modest gains Friday after the latest inflation data did little to sway market expectations for a rate cut at next week's Fed meeting. The main indexes managed to carve out weekly gains, too, kicking off a historically strong month on a positive note.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% at 47,954, the broader S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 6,870, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% to 23,578.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – rose 0.3% from August to September and was 2.8% higher than the same month one year ago.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year.

Both the headline and core inflation figures matched economists' forecasts, while the 0.4% rise in personal income came in slightly above expectations. However, the 0.3% increase in personal spending was a bit lower than anticipated.

The data, which was delayed due to the record-long government shutdown, is a bit stale, but confirms "the U.S. consumer and inflation were losing momentum at the end of the third quarter, before the government shutdown became an added headwind contributing to a year-end economic soft patch," says Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But Timmerman notes that "more timely data" on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan "should bode well for the all-important holiday shopping season."

Specifically, the University of Michigan this morning said consumer sentiment rose 2.3 index points in early December, with the increase primarily coming from younger consumers.

"Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, though she cautioned that "the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices."

Today's economic reports had little impact on rate-cut expectations. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will lower the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point next Wednesday afternoon, about the same odds as yesterday.

Netflix wins the Warner Bros. bidding war

In single-stock news, Netflix (NFLX, -2.9%) agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD, +6.3%) film studio and streaming services in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $72 billion, or $27.75 per WBD share. It also said it will pay a $5.8 billion breakup fee if the deal is not approved.

Netflix won out over Paramount Skydance (PSKY, -9.8%) and Comcast (CMSCA, +0.4%), which were also interested in taking over the assets once Warner Bros. spins off its cable network business next year.

"I know some of you are surprised that we're making this acquisition, and I certainly understand why," said Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos on a call with analysts. "Over the years, we have been known to be builders, not buyers."

Sarandos added that while Netflix already has "incredible" content and "a great business model," the acquisition "is a rare opportunity that's going to help us achieve our mission to entertain the world and to bring people together through great stories."

While some media reports suggested an uphill regulatory battle for the deal, Sarandos said he's "really confident" the company will "get all the necessary approvals we need."

WBD is expected to spin off its cable assets in Q3 2026, and estimates are for the Netflix deal to close in the next 12 to 18 months.

Ulta tops S&P 500 after earnings

Elsewhere, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) surged 12.7% – making it the best S&P 500 stock Friday – after the cosmetics retailer's beat-and-raise quarter.

The company also saw notable strength in its e-commerce segment and posted higher-than-expected same-store sales growth of 6.3% for its fiscal third quarter.

"The company quelled fears around a near-term sales slowdown," says UBS Global Research analyst Michael Lasser. "It noted it has seen solid Black Friday and Cyber Monday trends so far. It has continued to gain market share despite driving more efficiencies with promotions. So, we think Ulta left some upside on the table with its Q4 guide."

Lasser reiterated his Buy rating on the consumer discretionary stock and lifted his price target from $680 to a Street-high $690, representing implied upside of 15% to current levels.

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It was a choppy session for stocks Thursday as market participants weighed the latest jobs data against expectations for a rate cut at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Still, small caps rallied hard on hopes for lower interest rates, while speculation over a Mag 7 stock's massive spending cuts kept the Nasdaq Composite above water.

Ahead of the open, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that U.S.-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November – up 24% year over year. While this marked a 53% drop from the number of layoffs announced in October, it's still the highest for the month since 2022.

Employers have announced 1.17 million layoffs for the year to date through November – the most since 2020. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, it's just the sixth time since 1993 that job cuts through November have exceeded 1.1 million.

The Labor Department also released its weekly jobless claims update ahead of the open, with first-time filers declining 27,000 over Thanksgiving week to 191,000 – the lowest level since September 24, 2022. Continued claims rose by 56,776 to 1.8 million.

The data did little to move the needle on market expectations for a December rate cut. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point next Wednesday.

Higher odds of looser monetary policy helped small-cap stocks outperform Thursday, with the Russell 2000 climbing 0.8% to 2,531 – a new all-time closing high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.2% at 23,505) and the broader S&P 500 (+0.1% at 6,857) eked out a gain, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.07% at 47,850) closed lower.

Snowflake slumps after earnings

In single-stock news, Snowflake (SNOW) slumped 11.4% after the cloud-based data storage platform reported its fiscal 2026 third-quarter results.

While SNOW beat on the top and bottom lines, its forecast for fourth-quarter product revenue represents slower year-over-year growth than what was seen in Q3.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform (Buy) rating on the tech stock after earnings, saying he'd be a buyer on any weakness in the shares.

"Overall, we continue to believe that SNOW is well-positioned to be a key 2nd derivative in the AI Revolution as it will continue to benefit from the significant acceleration of use cases and a rapidly growing pipeline," Ives writes in a note to clients.

Salesforce leads Dow Jones stocks after its earnings report

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Salesforce (CRM) jumped 3.7% after its fiscal 2026 Q3 results, making it the best Dow Jones stock on Thursday.

While Salesforce reported higher-than-expected earnings of $3.25 per share, its revenue of $10.26 billion came up short of estimates. Still, Wall Street cheered strong guidance for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year.

"CRM delivered a very solid fiscal Q3," says Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz. "Agentforce annual recurring revenue has also now eclipsed $500 million and grew an impressive 330% year over year. Additionally, customers in production with Agentforce grew 70% sequentially, and far more customers are refilling the tank after having used up their commitments."

Moskowitz anticipates a much better year for Salesforce in calendar year 2026, "with legitimate potential for re-acceleration." And following the blue chip stock's year-to-date decline of more than 25%, the analyst finds the current valuation "very compelling."

He has an Outperform rating on CRM and a $340 price target – representing implied upside of 37% to current levels – adding that Salesforce a top stock pick.

Meta soars on metaverse spending speculation

Meta Platforms (META) outperformed its fellow Magnificent 7 stocks today, rising 3.4% after a Bloomberg report suggested the Facebook parent will cut spending to its Metaverse segment by as much as 30%.

The company rebranded itself in 2021 – changing its name from Facebook to Meta Platforms – to reflect a shift toward the metaverse. However, those projects have taken a backseat to Meta's AI initiatives.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says this reported move marks a strategic pivot rather than shrinking ambition.

"AI is the obvious beneficiary," he adds. "Unlike the Metaverse, AI is already delivering measurable improvements across Meta's core platforms, from ad targeting to user engagement, and it's central to future monetization opportunities."

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This proposed deduction would be in addition to the standard deduction, which most taxpayers currently claim.

The proposal comes on the heels of a massive 2025 Trump/GOP tax and spending bill that offers taxpayers several new deductions for car loan interest, overtime pay and tip income.

However, Hawley's proposal, which would have to clear significant political hurdles to advance in Congress, wouldn’t replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits.

Those credits, which help millions of Americans afford health care premiums, have been at the heart of debate on Capitol Hill since the government shutdown.

Will there be significant changes to health care tax breaks in 2026?

No taxes on health care?

In a release about the bill, Hawley points out that “nearly 41 percent of adults in the United States have some form of debt stemming from medical expenses. In the last year alone, a recent Gallup report found that 31 million Americans borrowed money to pay for health care.”

To address that, Hawley’s bill would expand the existing medical expense deduction, which currently is available only to taxpayers who itemize and only for expenses above 7.5% of adjusted gross income.

His plan would move that deduction “above the line,” so that any taxpayer could claim up to $25,000 per person in out‑of‑pocket medical spending, including premiums they pay directly for coverage.​

The proposal, announced in early December, is framed as “no taxes on healthcare,” echoing recent GOP slogans such as “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime.”

What about ACA tax credits?

ACA premium tax credits lower marketplace premiums up front based on income and plan cost, and enhanced subsidies created by pandemic‑era legislation are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress acts.

• Hawley’s bill doesn’t extend those ACA subsidies and doesn’t create a new ACA‑style credit.
• Instead, his proposal offers a separate federal tax deduction that would come into play at filing time, not at the time you purchase a health care plan.​

Because deductions reduce taxable income rather than premiums directly, they generally deliver less relief than a dollar‑for‑dollar subsidy, particularly for lower‑income households with little tax liability.

If enhanced ACA credits lapse, many marketplace enrollees could see substantial premium increases in 2026, regardless of Hawley’s idea. Nonitemizers would still likely be left weighing higher monthly bills against a possible year‑end tax break

Who might benefit?

Generally speaking, an above‑the‑line health deduction would skew toward taxpayers with enough income and out‑of‑pocket costs to fully use it. Think middle‑ and upper‑middle‑income households buying their own coverage without employer help.

Lower‑income consumers who currently rely on ACA subsidies, Medicaid, or employer plans with modest worker premiums might see little or no direct gain from a health care tax deduction such as Hawley’s. That's because they often don't pay enough income tax to fully benefit from a large deduction.

And ... a tax deduction wouldn't prevent coverage loss for people who can't afford the higher gross premiums that will come if enhanced ACA credits expire.​

Health care premiums: Bottom line

Key mechanics of the Hawley plan remain vague, including a major fiscal issue: How the government would offset the revenue loss from such a significant, broadly available health care tax deduction.

For now, the long and short of it is that Hawley’s bill is just a proposal.

Senate Democrats, meanwhile, continue to push for an extension of ACA subsidies rather than a deduction‑based alternative.

The health care tax debate rages on.

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• What's in Trump's 2025 Tax Overhaul Bill?
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The negotiated "maximum fair prices," made possible by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, promise to save the program $12 billion annually compared with last year's Medicare spending on 15 widely used drugs to treat cancer and other serious chronic conditions that hit older adults hardest.

Previously, the Biden administration reached deals to lower the costs of 10 prescription drugs, including several for heart disease and diabetes, which are set to take effect in 2026. This latest round of price negotiations will go into effect in 2027, with seniors expected to see an estimated $685 million in out-of-pocket relief.

Historically, prescription drug costs have wreaked havoc on many seniors' budgets, with some rationing doses or skipping their meds altogether due to high costs, according to a survey by research group KFF.

For the roughly 5.3 million Medicare beneficiaries who take these 15 medications, and the new $2,100 annual out-of-pocket cap in Medicare Part D, starting in 2026, 2027 can’t come soon enough.

For decades, Medicare was prohibited by law from negotiating drug prices directly with manufacturers, resulting in older Americans paying two to four times what patients in Europe or Canada paid for the same medicines.

Seniors like 72-year-old retiree Ryan Whitworth of Florida, who relies on Xtandl for prostate cancer, could see his monthly copays halved. “Finally, I won’t have to choose between meds and groceries,” he told Kiplinger. 

Below is the full list of the 15 drugs and their new Medicare maximum fair prices compared with the 2024 list prices. All figures are for a typical 30-day supply. The numbers are rounded to the nearest dollar where applicable.

The “2024 List Price” column shows the gross Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC) that Medicare Part D plans were charged in 2024 for a 30-day supply, before any rebates or discounts.

The “2027 Medicare Price” column is the Maximum Fair Price (MFP) manufacturers must offer Medicare starting January 1, 2027, for a 30-day supply.

Sources: CMS, November 2025 (pdf); Medicare prescription drug affordability fact sheet; Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program: Negotiated Prices for Initial Price Applicability, Year 2027 (pdf)

List prices reflect typical Part D gross costs before rebates.

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The main U.S. stock indexes closed higher Wednesday after investors, traders and speculators sorted another set of employment data. Market participants seem encouraged by the prospect of at least one more rate cut by the Federal Reserve as another record-setting earnings season winds down.

The ADP National Employment Report has all but sealed a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. Private-sector payrolls were down 32,000 in November vs a FactSet-compiled consensus forecast for 40,000 new jobs. The probability the central bank trims the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points next week is 89.0%, up from 88.0% on Tuesday, according to CME FedWatch.

"Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment," ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said, noting a broad-based slowdown led by a pullback among small businesses. November's decline follows an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 in October.

But it's the third decline in four months for private-sector payrolls, and, along with combined losses of 32,000 in August and September, establishes a downward trend, according to BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Sal Guatieri.

Weakness was widespread across industries, while small businesses shed staff for a fourth straight month. "This might reflect smaller firms struggling more to adapt to tariff-related supply disruptions," Guatieri said.

"The Fed won't have the BLS's official November jobs report before next week's policy decision," Guatieri concludes, "but the ADP report might be all that it needs for the more dovish-leaning governors to counter some hawkish-leaning regional presidents to push through another rate cut."

Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +4.7%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock after Roundhill Investments launched the Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF (UNHW, +4.9%), a single-stock exchange-traded fund that generates weekly income.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.9% at 47,882, the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.3% to 6,849 after opening in the red, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had also rallied from a negative start to post a 0.2% gain at 23,454.

Fly like American Eagle Outfitters

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, +15.1%) soared on a beat-and-raise fiscal third-quarter report, outshining multiple hot AI-related names on the earnings calendar in the process. People may say they're frustrated right now, but they keep spending money … at least at American Eagle Outfitters.

The consumer discretionary stock rose as much as 17.2% after the retailer posted earnings of 53 cents per share (+29.3% year over year) on sales of $1.36 billion (+5.7% YoY). Wall Street expected EPS of 43 cents on sales of $1.32 billion.

"Strong momentum has continued into the fourth quarter," CEO Jay Schottenstein said in a statement, "including an excellent start to the holiday season." The CEO cited a "record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend, led by an acceleration in demand across brands and channels and underscored by outstanding growth" for American Eagle's two key channels.

The retailer raised its guidance for fourth-quarter operating income from a range of $125 million to $130 million to $155 to $160 million based on estimated comparable sales and total revenue in the range of 8% to 9%.

About that AI hyperscaler spending

AEO outshone tech stocks such as Asana (ASAN, +7.8%), Box (BOX, +6.7%), Marvell Technology (MRVL, +7.9%) and Okta (OKTA, +5.5%), which also posted impressive gains after reporting results and sharing guidance.

CrowdStrike (CRWD, +1.6%) was down as much as 5.9% and bounced around the breakeven line before closing higher. But Gitlab (GTLB, -12.8%) and Pure Storage (PSTG, -27.3%) simply got crushed.

GTLB suffered because its expectations-beating revenue figure was "more modest than expected," according to Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz, who reiterated his Neutral (or Hold) rating on GTLB but cut his 12-month target price from $52 to $47.

PSTG was down big even though it beat revenue estimates, met earnings forecasts and raised its guidance for full-year operating income from $615 million to $634 million. What management didn't do is provide a meaningful estimate for fiscal 2027 sales to AI hyperscalers, including its customer Meta Platforms (META, -1.2%).

"Given this lack of visibility," Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini cut his rating on PSTG to Neutral (or Hold) from Positive (or Buy). Hosseini maintained his $100 12-month target price as he "waits for greater insight into the company's hyperscaler business."

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The market for initial public offerings (IPOs) was gaining momentum heading into the fourth quarter of 2025, but quickly lost steam as the record-long government shutdown put a short-term halt to public offerings.

According to Renaissance Capital, the 64 IPOs we saw in Q3 raised a combined $15.3 billion, marking the biggest quarter of new issuance since 2021.

"Twenty-four IPOs raised $100 million or more, another post-2021 high, led by a wave of high-profile unicorns," wrote Renaissance Capital in its Q3 2025 Quarterly Review (pdf). "Renewed interest in growth stocks allowed many of these names to price above the midpoint, and while a few of the earlier IPOs had explosive debuts, like billion-dollar deal Figma's historic 250% pop, more rational appetite prevailed towards quarter end."

But October saw just 22 new listings, and November had half that, with the 33 total offerings raising a combined $5.5 billion.

And while Renaissance Capital does not expect a rush of offerings through year's end "due to a backlogged SEC, pressure on AI and other tech stocks, and the approaching holiday slowdown," there are several names in the pipeline that could make their market debut before the new year.

Among them is medical supplies company Medline, whose estimated deal size of $5.37 billion will make it the biggest IPO since Rivian Automotive (RIVN) raised $11.9 billion in its 2021 offering.

When is the Medline IPO?

In late October, Medline announced that it had filed its IPO paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company updated its filing on December 8, saying it will sell 179 million shares and expects them to be priced between $26 to $30 apiece.

While the exact date of the Medline IPO is unknown, the company is likely to start trading on or around Wednesday, December 17. Its stock will be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol "MDLN."

Who owns Medline?

Medline previously traded on the public markets in the mid-1970s, but was taken private by Jim and Jon Mills, who founded the company in 1966.

In 2021, a group of private equity firms – Blackstone, Carlyle and Hellman & Friedman – acquired a majority stake in Medline for roughly $30 billion, in what was then the largest leveraged buyout since 2008.

According to the company's regulatory filing, Medline currently operates 22 manufacturing facilities and 69 distribution centers across more than 100 countries. It employs 43,000 folks worldwide.

Its growth is impressive too. The company has enjoyed more than 50 straight years of annual net sales growth. In 2024, Medline generated net sales of $25.5 billion, up 10% from the year prior. And in the first six months of 2025, net sales rose 9.8% to $13.5 billion.

Can I buy MDLN stock?

"An initial public offering enables a private company to 'go public,' or start trading in public markets, by issuing its own shares on a stock exchange for the first time. In this way, any investor can buy shares and the company can raise capital to grow," Kiplinger contributing writer Tom Taulli writes in his article, "What Is an Initial Public Offering (IPO)?".

But buyer beware: IPOs can be volatile — especially for retail investors. While new stocks tend to have strong first-day showings, returns for the first year are generally weak, says the team of analysts at Trivariate Research, a market research firm based in New York.

"In this froth and frenzy, opportunities mix with peril," writes David Milstead, senior associate editor at the Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine. "The safest course may be to wait for companies to settle in some months after their debut, after one or two quarterly earnings reports."

Ultimately, the decision to buy the Medline IPO comes down to your own risk tolerance and personal investing goals. If you do choose to buy shares of MDLN stock when they first begin trading, it's prudent to do so in a small amount that you can afford to lose and have a trading plan in place.

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What's happening? Costco recently filed a lawsuit to preserve its right to a potential refund of an undisclosed amount of tariffs paid. A sticking point is whether the United States Supreme Court will ultimately rule that Trump lacked the authority to impose the levies in the first place.

But it’s important to note that Costco’s lawsuit is separate from the main Supreme Court tariff case. The company argues that even if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs, importers like Costco might not automatically get refunds of the money they paid unless they file their own lawsuits.

And Costco isn’t the only retailer taking action. Other companies have reportedly filed lawsuits related to U.S. tariff policy. Some contest Trump tariffs on Chinese-made goods while others seek to preserve eligibility for potential tariff reimbursements.

So, will tariff refunds even happen? And what does all of this mean for you as a shopper? Read on.

Costco tariff refunds?

Costco filed suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade to preserve its ability to recover tariffs paid under the Trump administration's trade policies.

• Earlier in 2025, President Trump used emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping new tariffs on goods from key trading partners.
• He said the tariffs, which have been as high as 50-145% in some instances, were needed to address problems like drug trafficking and trade deficits.
• Those levies have generated billions of dollars primarily at the expense of importers and U.S. consumers.

Many companies have sued the government, arguing that the IEEPA doesn’t grant the president authority to impose tariffs and that, because tariffs are taxes, that authority instead lies with Congress.

The Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court agreed, ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority. However, the Trump administration appealed, and the Supreme Court is now considering whether most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal.

Adding to the chatter: Some believe that tariff refunds may be warranted if the Supreme Court rules that Trump lacked authority to impose tariffs under the IEEPA.

In its filing, Costco warns that if U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) finalizes tariff payments before a key deadline, the ability to recover some of the tariff funds could be lost or made more difficult for some importers.

So, Costco’s legal challenge focuses on these key points:

• Many of Trump’s tariffs may be unlawful because IEEPA doesn’t explicitly empower the president to impose them.
• Even if SCOUS strikes down the tariffs, importers have to act swiftly through legal action to secure refund eligibility before CBP “liquidation.”

According to the lawsuit, Costco argues: "This separate action is necessary…because even if the IEEPA duties and underlying executive orders are held unlawful by the Supreme Court, importers that have paid IEEPA duties, including Plaintiff, are not guaranteed a refund for those unlawfully collected tariffs in the absence of their own judgment and judicial relief.”

Supreme Court tariff ruling?

As Kiplinger has reported, lower courts have already found Trump’s tariffs imposed under the IEEPA to be unlawful in cases, including those before SCOTUS, brought by beverage company V.O.S. Selections and toymaker Learning Resources, Inc. But the Trump administration appealed those rulings, so the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision looms large.

During oral arguments on November 5, several justices seemed skeptical about the president's “emergency” tariff powers. Justice Amy Coney Barrett pondered how tariff refunds might work, describing such a process as a potential “mess.”

At that time, in an emailed statement, Pacific Legal Foundation senior attorney Oliver Dunford noted, "This is a complicated case involving profound constitutional questions. It's hard to predict exactly how the court will rule, but the President's IEEPA tariffs seem to be in trouble."

Meanwhile, Trump has continually framed tariffs as essential for protecting U.S. jobs, industries, and long-term economic strength. He claims reversing them would "our country would be completely destroyed."

Consumer impact

Some legal experts note that even if SCOTUS strikes down the tariffs, the government could attempt to reimpose similar duties under other statutory authorities. And in the event of a Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration, refunding the duties wouldn’t necessarily be automatic. (Under current law, importers generally must file a timely protest to challenge liquidation determinations.)

Regardless of the lawsuit's outcome, any changes in tariff policies could impact the pricing and availability of products for millions of shoppers.

For example, if existing tariffs remain in place, consumers will likely continue to face higher prices on various goods. On the other hand, if the Supreme Court invalidates the tariffs and/or allows tariff refunds, businesses could see financial relief (reap substantial sums) that might eventually lead to lower prices for shoppers. Stay tuned.

Costco hot dogs: 40th anniversary

Some less dicey news? Amid this legal challenge over import costs, Costco's popular signature offerings continue.

The $1.50 hot dog-and-soda combo turned 40 this year, marking its 1985 introduction. Sales reportedly hit a record 245 million units in fiscal year 2025, up from 199 million the prior year.

Meanwhile, gold bar sales, launched online to Costco members in June 2023, also sustained strong demand through 2025 as prices topped $4,000 per ounce.

• Initial batches sold out in hours, generating an estimated $100-200 million monthly by 2024, while e-commerce sales reportedly rose 15.6% in FY2025.
• September listings reportedly depleted quickly.

Costco imposed a limit of one transaction per membership per 24-hour period, with a max of two 1-ounce, 24-karat gold bars.

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Investors, traders and speculators welcomed beat-and-raise earnings announcements from two up-and-coming technology companies and a positive forecast from an aircraft maker as the main U.S. equity indexes got back into the green on Tuesday. Momentum ebbed briefly, but fundamentals grounded in the AI revolution and the power of flight carried the trading day.

Everybody from Washington, D.C., to Wall Street is alert to President Donald Trump's weekend revelation that he knows whom he will name as the next Fed chair. Trump said today he will announce his choice early in 2026, though markets remain more focused on the next Fed meeting.

In the meantime, the delayed release of September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data on Friday is the highlight of this week's economic calendar. CME FedWatch shows an 89.2% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets next week.

"After an opening stumble yesterday, stocks are catching a bid today," observes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. "It's being led by semiconductors again, as the volatility of the AI theme has picked up, despite the pledges of an enormous build-out of data centers."

Navellier notes a challenge to Nvidia (NVDA, +0.9%) as the leader of the AI revolution from Alphabet (GOOGL, +0.3%), with Amazon.com (AMZN, +0.2%) joining the competition today with the introduction of its own new AI chip.

Meanwhile, Boeing (BA, +10.2%) was No. 1 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks after Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave said the aircraft maker expects deliveries of its 737 and 787 jets to be up next year. Malave also said Boeing will generate positive free cash flow in the "low single digits." Boeing hasn't reported a profit since 2018.

"Expectations are still high for a strong finish to the year," Navellier concludes, "but we may have to get the Fed cut for the positive momentum to arrive."

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 0.6% to 23,413, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4% at 47,474, and the broad-based S&P 500 had risen 0.3% to 6,829.

MDB and CRDO see an AI boom-and-bounce effect

MongoDB (MDB, +22.2%) was up as much as 27.6% to a new 52-week high after management of the large-cap stock reported earnings of $1.32 per share (+13.8% year over year) on revenue of $628.3 million (+18.7% YoY), beating a consensus forecast for EPS of 81 cents on revenue of $593.8 million.

CEO CJ Desai cited continued strength in MongoDB's Atlas product, which saw annual sales growth of 30%, and "meaningful" margin outperformance. "Reflecting this strength," Desai said, "we are raising our guidance on the top and bottom line for the rest of the year." The document database provider upped its full-year EPS guidance from a range of $3.63 to $3.73 to $4.76 to $4.80.

MDB stock is up more than 40% year to date but remains more than 45% below its November 16, 2021, all-time high of $585.03.

"Companies across industries and geographies are choosing MongoDB because we provide a unified data platform that powers mission-critical workloads today and also positions them to capitalize on the emerging AI platform shift," the CEO said.

Credo Technology (CRDO, +10.1%) also reflected the impact of the AI boom (and provided, for now, relief from worries about an AI bubble), rising as much as 24.9% on strong results and upbeat guidance.

Management reported EPS of 67 cents (+28.8% YoY) on revenue of $268.0 million (+272.1% YoY), ahead of Wall Street estimates of 49 cents on $235.0 million. Gross margin was 67.7%.

"These are the strongest quarterly results in Credo's history," CEO Bill Brennan said, noting Credo's 20% sequential and 272% annual revenue growth, "and they reflect the continued build-out of the world's largest AI training and inference clusters." Management expects to see fiscal third-quarter revenue of $335.0 million to $345.0 million and gross margin between 64.0% and 66.0%.

Brennan says continued growth for Credo's core franchises, as well as ramp-ups for recently introduced products and services, establishes "an outlook with strong revenue growth and profitability through fiscal 2026 and beyond."

Earnings are fundamental

It is a relatively light day for reporting, but the earnings calendar remains a source of support for a bull market.

"Operating earnings at S&P 500 companies should hit an all-time high of $618 billion for the third quarter of 2025," writes Jason Zweig, author of The Intelligent Investor column for The Wall Street Journal, citing estimates from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"That's up a remarkable 14% over the second quarter, itself a record," Zweig notes. Profit margins of 13.6% are also at record levels.

Tech stocks Asana (ASAN, +4.9%), Box (BOX, +2.9X%), CrowdStrike (CRWD, +2.5%), Gitlab (GTLB, +5.4%), Marvell Technology (MRVL, +2.0%), Okta (OKTA, +1.5%) and Pure Storage (PSTG, +7.1%) are scheduled to release results after the closing bell. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, -1.9%), a consumer discretionary stock, will also reveal numbers this evening.

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All three main U.S. equity market indexes closed lower on Monday amid a continuing sell-off for bitcoin and stocks leveraged to digital assets, as well as tepid economic data. History suggests better things are ahead, at least for the S&P 500, with investors, traders and speculators looking forward to another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

"The S&P 500 clawed its way back from nearly a 5% intra-month drawdown to finish November with a modest 0.1% gain," LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist writes, citing oversold conditions, solid earnings, renewed AI optimism, and repricing of rate-cut expectations at the next Fed meeting as fuel for the rebound.

According to Turnquist, momentum from late November indicates good things for December. "Historically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% gain in December and finished higher 73% of the time." That's the strongest positivity rate of any month. "However," the analyst adds, "December's strength typically emerges in the second half of the month."

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 48.2% in November from 48.7% in October. According to ISM, a Manufacturing PMI above 42.3% over a period of time generally indicates economic expansion.

"Although December's headline was somewhat softer than expectations," Barclays economist Jonathan Millar writes, "we do not view the miss as especially meaningful."

Millar notes that the ISM print "was more downbeat than the competing S&P Global Manufacturing PMI," which declined to 52.2% in November from 52.5% in October. The "breakeven" level for the S&P PMI is about four points higher than the ISM threshold, the economist says, though "both point to flat manufacturing."

The main event on this week's economic calendar is the delayed release of September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data. The Fed prefers core PCE over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure price stability.

It is late, but it's the best inflation data we have heading into the next Fed meeting. CME FedWatch reflects an 87.6% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

At the closing bell, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.5% at 6,812, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had shed 0.9% to 47,289, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.4% at 23,275.

Bitcoin and crypto stocks lead the way lower

Coinbase Global (COIN, -4.8%) makes the list of the riskiest S&P 500 stocks right now because of days like Monday. "Bitcoin (BTC) bounced from $82,000 to approximately $92,000 and then lower again today at $86,000," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani observes. "This price action suggests weak market sentiment, which has impacted digital asset equities."

Chhugani notes that COIN is down more than 20% over the last 30 days, and Robinhood Markets (HOOD, -4.1%) is down more than 10%. "However, unlike previous crypto corrections," he adds, "operating businesses look strong and only signs of speculative excess appear in the long tail of Strategy (MSTR, -3.3%) copycats."

The analyst suggests market concerns about MSTR, which is explicitly a bitcoin stock and was down as much as 12.2% on Monday, are overstated: "There is no realistic scenario which threatens the longevity of MSTR." Strategy revealed in a regulatory filing on Monday that it purchased 130 bitcoin from November 17 through November 30.

In addition to updating its BTC holdings, Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve fund "to support the payment of dividends on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding indebtedness."

Management also revised its fiscal year 2025 guidance to reflect a year-end bitcoin price in a range of $85,000 to $110,000 versus a prior estimate of $150,000.

Meanwhile, Chhugani concludes, "Coinbase is executing hard on its 'everything exchange' vision." The analyst expects management to announce the launch of two major products on December 17, including tokenized equity trading and the introduction of prediction markets on its primary platform.

It will compete with Robinhood, which "continues to aggressively diversify from its equity trading business into crypto, tokenized equities and prediction markets" as the crypto exchange business model and the broker-dealer business model converge.

"Coinbase wants its users to trade crypto, equity and prediction markets on the same platform," the analyst concludes.

NVDA > the entire crypto market

Nvidia (NVDA, +1.7%), incidentally, is bigger in market cap terms than the entire universe of cryptocurrencies – bigger than bitcoin plus ethereum, as well as all the other altcoins combined.

The leader of the AI revolution added another $72 billion to its total value after it announced a $2 billion investment in electronic design automation software maker Synopsys (SNPS, +4.9%).

"The complexity and cost of developing next-generation intelligent systems demands engineering solutions with a deeper integration of electronics and physics, accelerated by AI capabilities and compute," Synopsys CEO Sassine Ghazi said in a statement. "No two companies are better positioned to deliver AI-powered, holistic system design solutions than Synopsys and Nvidia."

For the record, Apple (AAPL, +1.5%), Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.7%) and Microsoft (MSFT, -1.1%) are also bigger than crypto, and Amazon.com (AMZN, +0.3%) is not far behind.

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Whether that move really makes a difference depends on from where you're coming. Even the cheapest city on the list is only paying 8.3% less than the national average on groceries.

If you're moving from San Francisco or another city with the most expensive groceries, the price difference at the store will be more dramatic. But if your current town is close to the national average already, you might hardly notice a change in your monthly spending.

With that in mind, I analyzed the latest grocery pricing data from the Council for Community and Economic Research to find the cities where people pay the least to feed their families.

I then compared those grocery budgets to median household income data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey 5-Year Data (2009-2023).

Take a look at which cities are spending the least to keep their fridges stocked.

Cheap groceries aren't always affordable groceries

Six of the 11 cities with the cheapest grocery prices are in Texas, meaning you'll spend less at the store just about anywhere you go in the Lonestar state. But cheap doesn't always mean affordable. With a wide variation in incomes from one Texas town to the next, groceries are a much bigger strain on the budget in some parts of the state than others.

That's because prices alone can't tell you how affordable groceries would be if you moved to one of these cities.

Financial experts typically suggest you keep your grocery budget at 15% or less of your take-home pay. When you factor in median household income, not one of the 11 cities below met that recommendation, despite paying less than the national average to put food on the table.

1. Grand Forks, North Dakota

• 8.3% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $72,369
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,143
• Grocery spend to income: 18.95%

Residents of Grand Forks are enjoying the lowest grocery bills in the United States. With a median household income of $72,369, groceries still take up more than 15% of their household income, despite being the cheapest in the country. However, food is more affordable here than it is in most other cities on this list.

2. Waco, Texas

• 7.2% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $56,548
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,156
• Grocery spend to income: 24.53%

In Waco, people pay 7.2% less than the national average to eat. But with a dramatically lower median household income compared with Grand Forks, groceries still strain the budget here. The typical household spends 24.53% of its income on food.

3. Minot, North Dakota

• 7% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $77,431
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,160
• Grocery spend to income: 17.98%

Minot might only rank third place when looking at the prices on store shelves, but the North Dakota city ranks first among the cities on this list for affordability.

With a median income of $77,431, the typical Minot household spends less than 18% of earnings on groceries. That's still higher than the 15% recommended cap — but it's a lot less strain on the wallet than many other cities on this list.

4. Harlingen, Texas

• 7% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $41,756
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,159
• Grocery spend to income: 33.31%

With a median household income of $41,756, Harlingen has the dubious distinction of being the least affordable place to buy groceries, despite having the fourth-lowest prices in the nation. A typical household here will spend more than 33% of their income just to put food on the table.

5. Lawton, Oklahoma

• 6.9% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $55,506
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,161
• Grocery spend to income: 25.09%

A typical household in Lawton earns $55,506 per year and spends a little more than 25% of that on groceries. Even with prices averaging about 6.9% below the national average, the lower median income still makes those prices unaffordable compared with areas with higher incomes.

Oklahoma had a 4.5% statewide grocery tax, but eliminated it in 2024, which state lawmakers said could save each family hundreds. However, shoppers can still face sales tax, including local taxes.

6. McAllen, Texas

• 6.9% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $60,907
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,160
• Grocery spend to income: 22.85%

McAllen residents pay slightly more than their Harlingen neighbors to the east but are also earning about $19,000 more per year. While they're still technically spending more of their income on groceries than experts recommend, they're not straining their budgets nearly as much as Harlingen residents.

7. San Marcos, Texas

• 6.7% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $48,091
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,163
• Grocery spend to income: 29.01%

McAllen's neighbors to the north are in a similar boat as Harlingen. Residents here pay 6.7% below average at the store. But with a median income of $48,091, those low prices still take up more than 29% of the typical household's income.

8. Temple, Texas

• 6.6% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $71,931
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,164
• Grocery spend to income: 19.42%

In Temple, residents enjoy grocery prices that are 6.6% cheaper than the rest of the country. With a median household income of $71,931, they also don't have to stretch their budgets thin to keep their families fed.

Of the six Texas cities on this list, Temple ranks first on affordability, with groceries taking up just 19.42% of income.

9. Ardmore, Oklahoma

• 6.5% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $52,954
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,166
• Grocery spend to income: 26.43%

Groceries in Ardmore are priced 6.5% below the national average, but the typical household still struggles to afford those lower prices. With a median income of $52,954 and an average monthly spend of $1,166, residents put more than 26% of their earnings toward food.

10. Corpus Christi, Texas

• 6.2% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $66,967
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,169
• Grocery spend to income: 20.95%

This coastal city pays 6.2% less than the rest of the United States to put food on table. With a median income of $66,967, groceries aren't exactly cheap, but the typical household here is still faring better than some other towns in Texas.

11. Joplin, Missouri

• 6.1% cheaper than national average
• Median household income: $51,154
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,171
• Grocery spend to income: 27.47%

Coming in at 11th place, Joplin pays 6.1% below the national average at the grocery store. On average, a typical household here will spend $14,052 per year to keep food in the pantry, which represents more than 27% of that household's income.

One other point to note is that Missouri is one of the 10 states that still taxes groceries, with a 1.225% food sales tax — and cities and counties can also charge their own tax rates. Joplin has a sales tax rate of 3.125%, although some areas of the city have lower rates due to special taxing districts.

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High inflation as of late means this is the fourth year in a row that the adjustments have resulted in a higher 401(k) contribution limit. But what about your IRA?

Here’s how much you can contribute to retirement accounts in 2026.

IRA 2026 contribution limits

The contribution limits for a traditional or Roth IRA increased last year and will increase again for 2026.

• You can contribute a maximum of $7,500 (up from $7,000 last year).
• Catch-up contributions for taxpayers 50 and older are also subject to cost-of-living adjustments, and these limits have also increased for 2026 to $1,100 ($8,600 total).

However, not everyone can make the maximum IRA contribution limits this year. You can only make the maximum contribution to your Roth IRA if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is below the threshold set for the year.

• For 2026, single and head-of-household filers with a MAGI below $153,000 (up from $150,000 last year) can contribute the full $7,500 in 2026.
• The maximum contribution is reduced for these filers if their MAGI is between $153,000 and $168,000, and these taxpayers can't contribute to a Roth IRA at all if their MAGI exceeds $168,000.
• For married couples filing jointly, the income phase-out range for 2026 is from $242,000 to $252,000 (up from from $236,000 to $246,000 last year).
• Joint filers with a MAGI below $242,000 can contribute the full $7,500 for 2026, but these filers cannot contribute anything to an IRA with a MAGI greater than $252,000.

(Note: The above income limits do not apply to traditional IRAs.)

401(k) limit increase for 2026 contributions

Contribution limits for 401(k), 403(b) most 457 plans, and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan will increase by $1,000 for 2026. Eligible taxpayers can contribute $24,500 to these accounts in 2026 (up from $23,00 last year).

The contribution limit for SIMPLE plans increases to $17,000 this year (up from $16,500 last year). Similarly, participants of an applicable SIMPLE plan might be able to contribute a higher amount of $18,100 (up from $17,600 last year).

401(k) 2026 catch-up limit

There's an increase in catch-up contribution limits for taxpayers 50 and older for 2026. These taxpayers will be able to contribute an additional $8,000 in 2026 ($32,500 total).

However, under SECURE 2.0, a higher catch-up contribution limit applies for those age 60 to 63 beginning this year. (Participants in that age range could contribute an additional $11,250 instead of $8,000.) The total potential contribution amount for these taxpayers is $35,750.

For more information, see Kiplinger's report: 'Super Catch-Up' Contribution for Ages 60-63.

The catch-up contribution limit for employees age 50 and older who participate in SIMPLE plans also has increased for 2026, to $4,000 (certain applicable plans might have a contribution limit of $3,850).

But under a new change under SECURE 2.0, those who are 60 to 63 can contribute more to SIMPLE plans, ($5,250) for 2026.

IRA deduction phase-out thresholds for 2026

If you put money in a traditional IRA, you might be able to take a tax deduction for some or all your contributions. (There is no deduction available for contributions to a Roth IRA.)

However, the deduction is gradually phased out if your income is above a certain amount.

Here are the phase-out ranges for 2026.

• For single taxpayers covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase-out range is from $81,000 to $91,000 (up from from $79,000 to $89,000 last year).
• For married couples filing jointly, if the spouse making the IRA contribution is covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase-out range is from $129,000 to $149,000 (up from $126,000 to $146,000 last year).
• For an IRA contributor who is not covered by a workplace retirement plan and is married to someone who is covered, the phase-out range is from $242,000 to $252,000 (up from from $236,000 to $246,000 last year).

If you are married and filing a separate return (and covered by a workplace retirement plan), the phase-out range remains from $0 to $10,000 because this limit is not subject to a cost-of-living adjustment.

Saver's Credit income limit for 2026

Americans with lower and middle incomes who contribute to a retirement plan can claim the Saver's Credit on their federal tax return, which could lower their tax bills.

However, not everyone qualifies. Here are the new income limits for claiming the Saver’s Credit in 2026.

• $80,500 for married couples filing jointly (up from $79,000 last year).
• $60,375 for heads of household (up from $59,250 last year).
• $40,250 for single and married taxpayers filing separately (up from $39,500 last year).

Read More

• 2026 HSA Contribution Limit: What You Should Know
• Saver's Credit: Who Qualifies for This Retirement Tax Break?
• New 2026 Income Tax Brackets Are Set

Right now, you can save up to 77% on NordVPN depending on the plan. That’s a significant cut for a service that’s consistently ranked among the most dependable and user-friendly VPNs available.

Whether you want to protect your data while traveling, access streaming content from other countries or simply beef up your everyday privacy, this offer gives you premium-level protection for much less.

What’s a VPN?

A VPN, short for virtual private network, helps protect your identity and online activity by routing your internet connection through an encrypted tunnel. It masks your IP address, making your device appear as if it’s in another location.

This makes it harder for advertisers, hackers or even your internet provider to track you. It also opens the door to accessing region-locked content, which is why frequent travelers and streaming fans often consider a VPN essential.

VPNs can help prevent risks on public Wi-Fi, shield sensitive information during online shopping or banking and create an extra buffer between you and the many digital threats that exist today.

Save on security with NordVPN

NordVPN is up to 77% off for Black Friday and combines privacy tools, a clean interface and a strong global server network, making it a great choice whether you're at home or on the road. If you want to watch a show that’s only available in another country or maintain access to your usual library while abroad, NordVPN can help.

Beyond location control, NordVPN includes built-in security features. That includes:

• Ad and tracker blocking to cut down on intrusive ads
• Malware protection to help detect harmful downloads
• A password manager for simpler, safer logins
• A global server network for reliable connections
• Fast speeds that work well with streaming in HD or 4K

These tools run quietly in the background, offering protection without slowing you down. For many users, the combination of speed and privacy is the biggest selling point.

Whether you’re looking for safer browsing or more flexibility when watching your favorite shows, this discount delivers strong value for the price. With up to 77% off, it’s one of the strongest VPN offers we’ve seen this Black Friday weekend.

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Stocks were choppy in Friday's abbreviated session, though the three main indexes extended their daily win streaks to five on Black Friday. Today's gains came even as futures and options trading were temporarily halted ahead of the open due to a cooling issue at a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data center.

"'Better late than never' may turn out to be the stock market's story for November," says Chris Larkin, managing director of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "While it might be too soon to say we've seen the last of tech volatility, over the past [five] trading days, the S&P 500 erased nearly all of its November pullback, rallying from a nearly 10-week low to roughly 1% below its record close."

Today, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,849, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% to 47,716 and the Nasdaq Composite finished 0.7% higher at 23,365.

For all of November, the S&P 500 closed flat, the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq shed 1.7%. These are pretty impressive returns considering the three indexes were staring at month-to-date losses ranging between 3.8% and 6.9% one week ago.

Larkin says that the market needs to prove it can sustain its momentum, but that the selling seen earlier this month "looks like it could be more of a short-term AI-selling climax than a sign of heightened bearishness."

History is certainly working in the bulls' favor. According to Yardeni Research, December has been one of the best months for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain since 1928. And the index has finished the month in positive territory 70 times over that same time frame.

Analyst sees 65% upside for red-hot CleanSpark

In single-stock news, CleanSpark (CLSK) surged 12.3%, extending its post-earnings surge. Earlier this week, the bitcoin miner and data center developer reported "transformative" fiscal 2025 results that showed a more than 100% year-over-year rise in revenue.

"We are evolving into a comprehensive compute platform that is prepared to optimize value from both AI and bitcoin workloads," said Matt Schultz, Chairman and CEO of CleanSpark. "Our deep expertise in power procurement, infrastructure development, and efficient scaling gives us a unique advantage in meeting surging global demand for compute."

CLSK ended Friday with a weekly gain of 55% and Needham analyst John Todaro thinks the red-hot crypto stock can climb even higher. The analyst reiterated his Buy rating and raised his price target to $25 from $23 – representing implied upside of 65% to today's close – as CleanSpark "transitions more toward high-performance computing from bitcoin mining."

Intel gains on Apple buzz

Intel (INTC) was another notable gainer in Friday's shortened session, surging 10.3% after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted that the chipmaker is expected to start shipping Apple (AAPL, +0.5%) low-end M processors as early as 2027.

"There have long been market rumors that Intel could become an advanced-node foundry supplier to Apple, but visibility around this had remained low," the Apple supply chain analyst posted. "My latest industry surveys, however, indicate that visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly."

The former Dow Jones stock has more than doubled since the start of the year thanks to big investments from the U.S. government and Nvidia (NVDA, -1.8%). But analysts are still sitting on the sidelines.

Of the 45 analysts following INTC who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, four say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, 24 have it at Hold, and seven rate it a Sell or Strong Sell. This works out to a consensus Hold recommendation.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson is one of those with a Neutral (Hold) rating on Intel.

"We see recent investment announcements as the impetus for much of the valuation disconnect, with these ties having seemingly increased optimism around INTC's opportunities," he says. "And, while we do believe these deals bolster INTC's balance sheet, we are less certain around near or longer-term positive business ramifications that might result from this newsflow."

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From Amazon's best Cyber Monday deals to Target Cyber Monday deals that are worth stocking up on, there are savings to be found today if you do some digging (and comparison shopping).

While some Black Friday deals fall short, these Best Buy Cyber Monday deals are all 50% off or more. So you can get that upgraded TV you've been dreaming of or grab a few tech gifts that your friends or family will love at half the price (or less). But order quick, because many of these deals will be gone tomorrow.

Best Buy Cyber Monday TV deals

• LG - 65" Class B5 Series OLED AI 4K TV, $1,000. Save 50%
• TCL - 65" Class QM6K Series 4K TV, $500. Save 50%
• Hisense - 98" Class QD5 Series QLED 4K TV, $1,000. Save 56%
• Toshiba - 55" Class C350 Series LED 4K TV, $200. Save 50%

Best home security deals at Best Buy

• Blink - Video Doorbell, Battery-Powered, $30. Save 57%
• Lorex - 2K Wi-Fi Smart Lightbulb Camera (2-Pack), $40. Save 50%
• Blink - Outdoor 4, 5-camera system, $120. Save 60%
• SimpliSafe - 9pc Outdoor Home Security System, $225. Save 50%
• Ring - Alarm Security Kit 5-Piece, $100. Save 50%

Best Buy Cyber Monday deals on laptops and tablets

• HP - OmniBook 3 15.6" Full HD Laptop, $400. Save 50%
• Amazon - Fire HD 10 Tablet, $70. Save 50%
• Lenovo - IdeaPad 1 15.6" Full HD Laptop, $250. Save 52%
• Samsung - Galaxy Chromebook Go - 14" LED Laptop, $150. Save 54%
• Amazon - Fire HD 8 Kids Pro Tablet, $65. Save 53%

Our Favorite Cyber Monday headphone deals at Best Buy

• Soundcore - by Anker P20i True Wireless In-Ear Headphones, $20. Save 50%
• JBL - Tune Buds 2, $50. Save 54%
• Sony - WH-1000XM4 Wireless Noise-Cancelling Headphones, $160. Save 54%
• Sennheiser - MOMEMTUM 4 Noise-Cancelling Headphones, $180. Save 60%
• Soundcore - by Anker C40i Open-Ear Cip-On Headphones, $50. Save 58%

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To help you understand the trends surrounding AI and other new technologies and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.) You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

It’s a repeat of the 1990s heyday for information technology sellers. “AI is driving the strongest IT spending growth since 1996,” according to Stephen Minton, an analyst at tech market research firm IDC.

Global IT spending will jump 10% in 2026 compared with 2025, according to Gartner, a tech market research firm, pushing the IT market above $6 trillion. This comes after a very strong 2025.

Spending on AI data centers leads the way, with nearly 20% growth in the $500 billion data center market, an especially big windfall for Nvidia, the leading seller of AI chips. These “fantastically expensive” AI-optimized servers continue to sell as fast as they can be made, said John Lovelock, an analyst at Gartner, in a recent online presentation.

North America dominates global spending on AI servers for data centers, accounting for half of the total, according to Gartner. Giant AI builders such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are set to make up two-thirds of the spending as they race to improve their AI.

Top AI systems are seeing exploding sales, as businesses and governments shell out more money to access advanced AI tools from Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral AI, Databricks, Alibaba and others. Gartner expects a staggering 67% yearly spending growth rate on generative AI models through 2029.

Spending will be strong on cloud computing, software and IT services, too. Software sales are boosted by vendors hiking prices to account for new AI features, found in software used for analytics, sales, supply chain management and more. Software vendors feel intense pressure to introduce AI features. “It will be an extinction-level event for software not to have generative AI feature functionality in their product,” said Lovelock.

Smartphone and PC sales are in for solid growth as consumers and businesses seek out new AI-enabled models that can run AI software directly on the device. There are tailwinds beyond AI, such as an ongoing shift to cloud computing from local servers, especially by smaller companies. The expiration of support for Windows 10 by Microsoft also continues to spur companies to update PC fleets.

This level of spending is not sustainable forever, Minton noted in a recent online presentation of IDC’s forecast. But he also doesn’t see any signs of a bubble about to burst. However, there is a bit of circularity to current IT spending growth, as AI spending lifts the overall economy, which helps companies and boosts business sentiment. That drives business IT spending, including investments in AI.

Businesses express some anxiety about spending more on IT, but it’s not dinging budgets yet, with business tech spending poised to rise 10%. Many companies are starting to think of AI as a necessity to compete. Meanwhile, a lot of spending can’t be cut because it’s for must-have IT, such as cloud computing. Among the IT categories most immune to budget cuts: AI tools, software and security.

Next year is likely to be a big year for businesses racing to benefit from AI, so here’s some business advice: Have an AI policy that offers guidance to workers about what’s allowed and what’s not, and sets the rules for security and privacy. Break individual jobs into small tasks and see if AI can automate or augment a few of them.

Test and closely evaluate pilot projects. Encourage employees to test and use AI tools that the company approves. Consider sharing short video tutorials on best practices. Experiment with free AI chatbots and harness the AI tools in software already in use at your business. Many companies are initially focusing on business productivity. AI can save time by summarizing meetings, emails and reports. Or it can brainstorm or analyze data, allowing workers to make more efficient use of their time and effort.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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“These cuts to research are going to have a significant negative and enduring impact on the health and well-being of all Americans and, perhaps disproportionately, upon older individuals,” says James Appleby, CEO of the Gerontological Society of America. The society surveyed members who are experts in aging research and found 71% saying their work has been harmed.

Medical research for a wide variety of maladies plaguing older people — from Alzheimer's to pneumonia, diabetes to strokes — is being affected.

“Researchers are reducing federally-funded work on several topics relevant to older adults,” says William Dow, a professor of public health and management at the University of California, Berkeley, and chair of the Government and Public Affairs Committee of the Population Association of America, a nonprofit that promotes demographic research. “This is from a combination of grant recissions on certain topics, informal guidance from program officers and a general chilling effect, which has caused researchers to pivot their focus.”

Grants frozen or canceled

The National Institute on Aging, the government agency that focuses on health research regarding older people, initially slashed or froze nearly 500 grants since January, according to Grant Witness, a website that tracks cuts in scientific research grants under the Trump administration. Of those 500, about 300 were reinstated or unfrozen, but 200 remained listed in mid-October as being terminated or still frozen.

Among the terminated grants was one that aimed to “provide insight into the molecular underpinnings of age-related cognitive decline” and another that proposed to look at health outcomes for participants in private Medicare plans.

In addition, many health conditions, such as pneumonia and stroke, disproportionately affect older people. Grants to research these conditions are typically funded by the National Institutes of Health, the government’s primary medical research agency, which includes the National Institute on Aging and 26 other institutes and centers, such as the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

The New York Times has reported that NIH has frozen or canceled nearly 2,500 research grants nationwide. Among the frozen grants from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders was one where researchers aimed to study people of different age groups and identify specific risk factors of developing dementia to help identify people who could benefit from early intervention.

The Trump administration has given several reasons for derailing research, ranging from assertions of waste and fraud to a failure to align with the administration’s priorities. In August, the Supreme Court allowed the NIH to stop paying approximately $783 million in research grants for projects it said failed to align with the administration.

Staff cuts

The administration has also laid off 1,300 employees at the National Institutes of Health. It’s unclear how many National Institute of Aging employees have been affected, but in March, the Alliance for Aging Research and numerous other organizations wrote to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. expressing alarm at the cuts there, as well as at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS).

“Already, the NIA has lost at least 115 new employees, or 17% of its total workforce,” the letter said. “Despite the lack of transparency, we understand another 60 to 70 employees were dismissed at NINDS. Layoffs and [reductions-in-force] include several of the most prominent and distinguished program directors and experts in aging research" — most of whom were thought to be recent hires or promotions.

Moving forward, President Trump’s proposed budget would cut the National Institute on Aging budget to $2.7 billion in 2026 from $4.4 billion previously. That’s part of an overall 40% cut at NIH to $26 billion from $45 billion. However, members of Congress of both parties continue to support funding research.

Nonmedical research cut

The cuts have gone beyond medical research and the NIH. Among the other casualties was the Retirement and Disability Research Consortium, which involved six research centers that helped the Social Security Administration assess the impact of its policies on beneficiaries. The consortium “helped the agency improve program efficiency, reduce improper payments and ensure that critical benefits and services reach our communities,” according to a prior statement from Social Security.

In terminating the consortium, Social Security cited Trump’s “priorities to end wasteful initiatives and contracts,” partly because the research “included a focus on research addressing [diversity, equity and inclusion] in Social Security, retirement and disability policy.”

“The immediate consequence would be that these programs will not be as good of a match to the needs of the beneficiary population,” says Dmitriy Stolyarov, director of the Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, which was part of the consortium.

The administration has also terminated a study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency aimed at helping mitigate wildfire smoke risk in Nevada. While the study description does not mention age, other research has found that older people are particularly vulnerable to harm from inhaling wildfire smoke.

Administration priorities and leverage

Cuts have directly targeted research examining health disparities among racial and other groups, which the administration has characterized as violating its policies against diversity, equity and inclusion.

Among the research project cuts cited by the Population Association of America’s Dow are: “vaccine hesitancy, learning from the COVID-19 pandemic response, health impacts of climate change, health and healthcare access related to gender identity, racial discrimination effects on health and healthcare access, immigrant health, effect of immigration policy changes on the health care workforce, etc.”

Other significant cuts and funding freezes have been unrelated to the substance of the research, but rather used as leverage against universities accused of harboring antisemitism, promoting diversity, equity and inclusion or otherwise failing to align with administration policies.

In some instances, researchers found temporary, alternative funding in hopes that grants could be restored.

“The practical effect (of the cuts) on older people is that this will cause delays in our discoveries of new risk factors and new treatments for the diseases that affect us as we grow older,“ says Daniel Belsky, epidemiology professor at Columbia University. “So, over the long term, this will make the lives of older people worse than they would have been had we not had this disruption.” Columbia saw $400 million in grants frozen before it settled with the administration in July.

Some grants have been restarted by court orders or, as was the case at Columbia, by settlements with the administration. In other cases, projects remain in limbo or have been killed outright.

“NIH now looks on track to spend their full budget this fiscal year, including the NIA,” Dow says. “But they are awarding fewer grants overall this fiscal year by using the current budget to fund grants over several years. That will, of course, adversely affect the amount of science that will get done from this year's spending.”

Corruption alleged

Defending cuts, Health Secretary Kennedy told a Senate committee there was “a lot of corruption” at NIH. He added that the U.S. has “the sickest people in the world. The NIH, with the best science, is supposed to be protecting. We should be the healthiest people in the world. We're switching the trajectory so that we're going to really focus narrowly on chronic disease, ending the chronic disease epidemic, and then we're going to make sure that the science cannot be corrupted.” Kennedy also said he plans to use artificial intelligence to make the work less expensive and more efficient.

Appleby, of the Gerontological Society, says as a scientist, he looks at the data, and he hasn’t seen evidence of corruption. “I'm always concerned when I hear that we're going to be better at science by cutting investments in science,” he adds. “That doesn't ring true for me as a believable statement.”

'Not political'

Nationwide, researchers are disoriented from being thrust into politics after having historically found broad bipartisan support. Diabetes, heart disease and cancer, they note, don’t discriminate between Democrats and Republicans.

“Alzheimer's is not a political event,” says Lee Lindquist, chief of Northwestern University’s Division of Geriatrics. “It's something that has always received generous funding from the government because it is a big issue. But what we're finding now, more than ever, is that there are more blockades making it harder and harder for research to be started.”

Lindquist’s research, which seeks to help older adults stay in their homes as they age, derailed in March when the NIH froze $800 million in grants to Northwestern amid unrelated allegations of student antisemitism.

Lindquist says the university’s board of trustees has provided short-term funding to keep the research afloat for now.

“It's just frustrating from my end,” Lindquist says, “because you try to do good work for seniors and it's just being cut off at the knees.”

She says it’s extremely difficult to apply for grants because of staffing cuts at the NIH. The agency used to issue regular notices of grants being available. Now, researchers are told to search a website. “If you go on that website … it's almost like finding a needle in a haystack,” Lindquist says.

And when researchers do apply for grants, the process has slowed, she says; applications are processed through an additional review by political appointees to determine if they align with administration priorities.

Alzheimer’s disease probes curbed

Progress in Alzheimer’s research at a collaborative of 14 research centers nationwide screeched to a halt in March as the administration froze some funding and stopped processing grants. As researchers found stop-gap funding, their work limped along for months, says Ann Cohen, co-director of the Alzheimer's Disease Research Center at the University of Pittsburgh. The funding for the collaboration was restored on July 31, but funding for individual research projects remained in question.

Cohen says researchers don’t know why the funding was disrupted. “Fourteen of the top Alzheimer's disease research centers in the country were essentially handcuffed for six months and not able to collect data and do research,” Cohen says. “There's a long-lasting impact on the field. Everything is moving so much more slowly and that really is hard to see happen. It really is kind of gutting.”

Cohen has the unmitigated support of at least one research subject, Ted Popovich, 80, whose mother participated until she died of Alzheimer’s. Popovich enrolled when asked and has been monitored for 14 years. A retired engineer and businessman, Popovich is an avid supporter of science and is determined to save the Alzheimer’s study. In fact, he thinks it should receive more funding; he’s encouraged other people to participate because he thinks it’s vital that we find answers as our population ages.

“Let me put it this way,” he says. “It won't stop. I'm adamant about it because I'll raise my voice to get a whole bunch of other people to go to our congressman's office. Even go to Washington and make a fuss.”

Stroke research affected

S. Thomas Carmichael, chairman of the Neurology Department at the University of California, Los Angeles, says, UCLA lost federal grant funding in July over allegations relating to pro-Palestinian demonstrations last year and admissions policies for undergraduates. The administration also demanded $1.3 billion in fines to restore $548 million in grants.

“The grant suspensions affected a lot of diseases that relate to aging,” Carmichael says. “We had to stop cold.”

The suspension disrupted clinical trials for new drugs to treat strokes and Alzheimer’s and also research into Parkinson’s disease, vascular dementia and other conditions, Carmichael says.

The university sued, and a federal judge ordered that the grants be restored. So ultimately, the disruption was relatively brief — July 31 to Oct. 1. “We can overcome this delay,” Carmichael says. “Had this gone on longer… we would have had layoffs of highly trained personnel, and they would not have been replaceable.”

Diabetes research project caught in university dispute

A 29-year landmark national diabetes research study, credited with helping significantly decrease the number of new cases of type 2 diabetes in the U.S., came to a sudden halt in March as it became collateral damage in a clash between President Trump and Columbia University that had nothing to do with the study.

Alleging the school had mishandled allegations of antisemitism, the administration froze federal grants going to Columbia.

“We got swept up into it,” says David Nathan, director of the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. “Of the $400 million that were stopped at Columbia, we were the largest part. We represented about $90 million.”

Not only was the study unrelated to the antisemitism allegations, but with 26 sites around the country, very little of the grant money was actually for research at Columbia, which had been designated to manage the grant funds for the national project. “It was rather odd because in fact, although the money flowed through Columbia, the vast majority, like 95% of the dollars, made a U-turn” and was distributed to centers, laboratories and imaging centers around the country, says Nathan, who is based at Harvard University. “Columbia had frankly a small financial stake. However, when Columbia got zapped, we got zapped along with them.”

The study — which had followed the medical lives of what had started out as 3,200 Americans and still involved about 1,800 people — came to a screeching halt. Researchers had to call the participants whose average ages were in the 70s to tell them not to come for their appointments.

The study began in 1996, when the country was in the midst of what was considered a diabetes epidemic with a rate of diabetes growing at about 5% a year. The study began looking at people with high blood sugar who were not yet diabetic, but considered prediabetic. Their blood sugar made them highly susceptible to the disease, getting it at a rate of about 11% a year.

Researchers found that lifestyle intervention (losing 7% of weight) reduced the development of diabetes by 58% and using the inexpensive diabetes drug metformin reduced it by 31%. The findings helped develop a national model that, once adopted, Nathan says, caused the national diabetes rate to drop, leveling off in 2016 when it reached 1.4 million new cases a year, down from a high of 2 million new cases annually.

The study continued, tracking how long the effects lasted, as well as the effects of the interventions on cardiovascular disease and cancer. As required, researchers renewed their grant applications every five years, continuing to get approvals. Three years ago, researchers began looking at dementia, with funding shifting to the National Institute on Aging.

After the study was halted in March, Nathan says the researchers turned to the Congressional Diabetes Caucus. In May, one of its leaders, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., confronted Health Secretary Kennedy, who professed to be unaware of the halting of the study and promised to look into it. But nothing happened.

Then, at the end of July, Columbia settled with the Trump administration and the study funding was restored.

“They didn't kill the study,” says Nathan. “They just injured it. We're now kind of in rehab and yes, we're going to have to change some of our strategies.”

Deterring future researchers

The disruptions follow a slew of medical breakthroughs in recent years. “The world has been rapidly accelerating, I would say, in the past five years or so,” says Esther Oh, who is on the board of directors for the American Geriatrics Society and teaches at Johns Hopkins University. Oh, who specializes in Alzheimer’s, describes a recent clinic: “I was telling my patients, ‘Had you come to see me maybe two to three years ago, I would have been prescribing your medication that was FDA-approved in the 1990s. And here we are discussing new options that you have.’”

But now fewer younger researchers are entering the field as the result of cuts to training grants, as well as overall uncertainty.

UC Berkeley’s Dow says there’s anxiety in the research field that is “leading to cuts in the research pipeline of young people. And so we're seeing early career researchers leave the field. We're seeing graduate programs cut back on the number of new people that are accepted into the field. And all of this is going to have long-term damage.”

What happens next and how deep and permanent the cuts will be depends on battles being waged in Congress and at colleges and universities.

Says Oh: “If we don't fund the future scientists of America, that day when we might actually have a cure for Alzheimer's disease may be delayed.”

Note: This item first appeared in Kiplinger Retirement Report, our popular monthly periodical that covers key concerns of affluent older Americans who are retired or preparing for retirement. Subscribe for retirement advice that’s right on the money.

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The three main U.S. equity indexes gapped up at the opening bell Wednesday, rallied all day, and will carry four straight days of gains into the Thanksgiving holiday. Markets reflect resurgent bullishness about AI and tech as well as refreshed hope for a December rate cut.

Incoming economic data continue to support the idea of another rate cut at the next Fed meeting. The Department of Labor said weekly jobless claims declined by 6,000 to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, below a consensus forecast of 225,000. The four-week moving average declined by 1,000 to 224,000.

Continuing claims for the week ended November 15 were 1,960,000 vs 1,953,000 for the prior week and a Wall Street estimate of 1,963,000. And the Census Bureau said durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month over month in September, in line with expectations.

"With no other major data release scheduled before December 9-10," Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs writes, "the September jobs report may have sealed a 25-basis-point cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting."

Briggs assumes the Fed will cut in March and June as well, leaving the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.00% to 3.25%. "Tariff pass-through has kept inflation near 3%," the analyst observes, "but should abate in 2026."

Fed funds futures pricing has been volatile amid an absence of economic data collected and released by the federal agencies during a record-long government shutdown. CME FedWatch shows an 84.9% probability the Fed cuts interest rates next month, up from 30.1% a week ago and vs 91.7% a month ago.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.8% at 23,214 to put the finishing touches on its best Thanksgiving Week since 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% at 47,427. Papa Dow goes into the holiday on a four-day, 1,675-point rally. The broader S&P 500 had added 0.7% to 6,812 and, like the Dow, has posted its best Thanksgiving Week rally since 2012.

Will Alphabet or Apple catch Nvidia?

Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.1%) cooled off a day after a report that Meta Platforms (META, -0.4%) is considering Google-produced chips to run its data centers was interpreted as a threat to Nvidia (NVDA, +1.4%) as the leader of the AI revolution.

GOOGL stock is up 24.4% this month with only Friday's short trading session left on the calendar. (Note the stock market closes at 1 pm Eastern Standard Time, and the bond market closes at 2 pm on Black Friday.)

NVDA, despite another stellar earnings report and more staggering commentary from CEO Jensen Huang, is down 4.5% in November. META, meanwhile, is off 13.8% this month.

Apple (AAPL, +0.2%), on the other hand, is going higher again and is approaching new all-time-high territory after posting a 5.5% gain so far in November. At $4.102 trillion, it's edging closer to Nvidia ($4.380 trillion) for leadership atop the global market cap rankings.

Apple is seeing strong demand for its new iPhone lineup, and it is not subject to the same sort of speculation about return on invested capital related to massive AI infrastructure ventures as the so-called hyperscalers.

Alphabet is now No. 3 in the rankings, followed by Microsoft (MSFT, +1.8%), Amazon.com (AMZN, -0.2%) and Broadcom (AVGO, +3.3%). Meta is No. 7, while the seventh member of the Magnificent 7, Tesla (TSLA, +1.7%), is No. 10 – and potentially climbing on its own AI chip ambitions.

Deere in the headlights

Deere (DE, -5.8%) took its turn on a relatively quiet earnings calendar and closed at its lows of the day after the world's leader in farm equipment sales warned tariffs will continue to impact its business.

Deere reported fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings of $3.93 per share, better than the $3.84 analysts expected but down from $4.55 a year ago. Revenue was up 14% to $10.58 billion and beat a Wall Street estimate of $9.83 billion.

"This past year brought its share of challenges and uncertainty," CEO John May said in a statement, "but thanks to the structural improvements we’ve made and the diverse customer segments and geographies we serve, we were able to achieve our best results yet for this point in the cycle."

May said management believes 2026 "will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle," though Deere will face ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and other persistent challenges for the sector. Deere forecasts net income for fiscal year 2026 of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion.

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Starting November 25, Hulu subscribers can add HBO Max with Ads for only $2.99 per month for 12 months. Considering the standard HBO Max price is $10.99 per month, this limited-time offer unlocks a full year of TV and blockbuster movies at a fraction of the usual rate.

Whether you’ve been waiting to catch originals, revisit holiday classics or binge this year’s new releases, Hulu’s HBO Max Black Friday deal makes premium streaming more affordable than ever.

Why the HBO Max add-on is a good deal

Hulu’s Black Friday promotion brings the HBO Max with Ads add-on down to $2.99 per month for 12 months, compared with the regular $10.99 monthly price for the Basic with Ads plan. The savings last a full year, and once the promotional period ends, the add-on returns to standard pricing.

The deal runs now through December 1, and once it expires, the add-on returns to standard pricing. If you’ve been thinking about trying HBO Max or expanding your current Hulu lineup, this is one of the most aggressive discounts Hulu offers all year.

Who can add HBO Max to Hulu for $2.99

The deal is open to new and existing Hulu subscribers on eligible plans who don’t currently have the HBO Max add-on. Those on ineligible legacy plans will need to switch to a qualifying plan if they want to redeem the offer.

Once added, subscribers can enjoy HBO Max’s wide catalog of acclaimed originals and premium series, including new titles like IT: Welcome to Derry, The Pitt and recent releases such as The Conjuring: Last Rites.

How to add HBO Max to your Hulu subscription

Adding HBO Max is simple. Log in to your Hulu account, go to “Account,” then choose “Manage Add-Ons.” Select HBO Max (with Ads) and confirm the update.

Hulu will handle billing for both your main subscription and the add-on, making it a seamless upgrade.

To access HBO Max titles, download the HBO Max app, choose “Sign in with a provider,” select Hulu and log in using your Hulu credentials.

You’ll be able to stream select HBO programming directly through Hulu while accessing the full HBO Max library through the app.

There’s no long-term commitment, and you can cancel at any time through your Hulu account.

What you can watch with the HBO Max add-on

HBO Max brings a substantial entertainment library to Hulu, from timeless holiday movies to genre-defining originals. The platform’s mix of series, documentaries and new titles makes it one of the most robust catalogs available.

Whether you're rewatching yearly favorites or introducing holiday classics to someone new, HBO Max offers a wide selection to kick off the season.

Christmas movies on HBO Max:

• A Christmas Story
• A Christmas Story 2
• Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas
• Elf
• Four Christmases
• Fred Claus
• Holiday Affair
• Jack Frost
• National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
• Scooby Doo: Haunted Holidays
• The Polar Express

What’s new on HBO Max in December

HBO Max adds new titles monthly, including documentaries, comedy specials and a sequel to a beloved cult classic.

Here are a few highlights:

December 4

It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley — A documentary exploring the life, music and legacy of Jeff Buckley.

December 12

Sarah Squirm: Live + In the Flesh — A stand-up special from “Saturday Night Live” cast member Sarah Sherman.

Spinal Tap II: The End Continues — A follow-up to the iconic mockumentary that reunites the original fictional heavy-metal band.

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This year, Hulu is focusing heavily on premium add-ons like STARZ, delivering deep discounts that let you watch more for less. Whether you’re catching up on dramas or starting your holiday movie marathon, Hulu’s new offer means you can stack major entertainment without the premium price tag.

And if you’ve been waiting for a reason to try STARZ or jump back in for a new season of your favorite series, Hulu’s limited-time STARZ add-on Black Friday deal makes the decision pretty easy.

Why the STARZ add-on is such a strong value

Hulu is offering new and existing subscribers the chance to add STARZ for only $2.99 per month for 12 months, a drop from the regular price of $10.99 per month.

That’s one of the lowest prices you’ll see for the premium channel all year. To get the deal, you’ll first need a Hulu base plan, which starts at $11.99 per month, and then you can add STARZ at the discounted rate.

The clock is ticking, though. Hulu’s Black Friday offer is available now through December 1, and once the discount expires, STARZ returns to its standard pricing.

Who can add STARZ on Hulu for an additional $2.99 during Black Friday

The deal is open to new and existing Hulu subscribers who don’t currently have STARZ, as well as anyone who has been without a STARZ subscription for at least one month. That means a wide swath of viewers can take advantage of the promotional pricing without needing to create a brand-new account.

What you can watch with the STARZ add-on

Why consider STARZ? The add-on unlocks access to an extensive catalog of hit movies and original series. Subscribers can stream everything from action blockbusters to thrillers, all in one place.

Current standouts include titles like Ballerina, Now You See Me, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Borderlands and more, giving movie fans plenty to binge during the holiday season.

But STARZ is perhaps best known for its original programming. The network is home to major hits like Outlander, Power Book IV: Force, BMF and a growing library of exclusive series that you can’t find on any other streaming service.

Hulu lets you cancel anytime, so you’re not locked into a year-long commitment even though the discount lasts for 12 months. That makes it a low-risk way to test STARZ during the peak entertainment season, when new episodes, holiday specials and fresh movies are released.

When does the Hulu Black Friday savings end

With premium networks continuing to raise prices across the board, Black Friday has become one of the best times of the year to secure lower streaming rates. If you’ve been considering consolidating your streaming apps or trimming back on subscriptions, this offer gives you premium content at a fraction of the regular price.

Whether you’re catching up on your movie-to-watch list, starting a new original series or kicking off your annual holiday movie binge, Hulu’s Black Friday STARZ deal delivers a lot of entertainment for a very small price.

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Stocks were volatile Tuesday, as volume thinned out ahead of Thanksgiving. As a reminder, the stock and bond markets are closed on Thursday for the holiday and will close early on Black Friday. Today, tech stocks remained in focus as AI bubble worries lingered, while several retailers rallied thanks to upbeat earnings reports.

After tumbling to notable losses in mid-morning trading, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.4% at 47,112, the broader S&P 500 added 0.9% to 6,765, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 23,025.

Nvidia (NVDA) was the worst Dow Jones stock today, shedding 2.6% after The Information suggested that Meta Platforms (META, +3.8%) is considering using chips from Alphabet's (GOOGL, +1.5%) Google to run its data centers.

This sparked "fears that Nvidia's AI monopoly may be ending," says Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates. "This is an interesting report, but so far, there is no reaction from the analyst community, which is forecasting 66.4% annual sales growth and 70.9% forecasted earnings growth for Nvidia."

It's been a rough month for NVDA – down 12% so far – on concerns the AI trade has run too far, too fast. But Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish toward the tech stock.

Of the 64 analysts covering Nvidia who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 49 say it's a Strong Buy, 11 have it at Buy, three rate it at Hold and one has it at Strong Sell. This works out to a consensus Strong Buy rating.

Abercrombie, Kohl's surge roughly 40% apiece after earnings

While several tech stocks struggled on Tuesday, a number of retailers had really good days. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), for one, jumped 37.5% after the specialty apparel retailer reported higher-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results as solid growth in its Hollister segment offset weakness in its namesake brand.

For its fourth quarter, Abercrombie expects revenue growth of 5% at the midpoint – below analysts' estimates – on inline earnings of $3.55 per share. For the full fiscal year, the retailer is calling for revenue growth of 6.5% at the midpoint, slightly higher than the 6.2% Wall Street expects.

Kohl's (KSS) was another big post-earnings winner, climbing 42.5% after the department store chain disclosed fiscal third-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share – beating analysts' estimates for a per-share loss of 20 cents. Revenue also came in higher than anticipated.

"While these results are encouraging, we continue to operate in an environment where our customers are becoming increasingly choiceful as their discretionary income remains pressured," said Michael Bender, who on Monday was named CEO of the retailer after serving in the role on an interim basis for the past six months.

This is especially true among low to middle-income consumers and younger customers, Bender added, noting that he expects this consumer behavior "to continue into the fourth quarter as we believe the macroeconomic environment will remain uncertain."

Rate-cut hopes rise after September retail sales data

In economic news, the Census Bureau said retail sales edged up 0.2% from August to September, missing economists' forecasts for a 0.3% rise and signaling a sharp deceleration from July and August.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses are paying suppliers for goods and services, rose 0.3% month over month in September and was 2.7% higher year over year.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade-related costs, was up 0.1% from August to September and 2.7% from the year prior.

"Producer inflation for final demand excluding food and energy was almost flat," says Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X. "This suggests that tariffs are not really playing a major role across the economy more broadly. Companies are managing their costs and that is turning up in the data."

Helfstein believes the two shutdown-delayed economic reports will do little to move the Federal Reserve's rate-cut plans and expects the central bank to lower interest rates at its December meeting.

The odds of this occurring are on the rise. According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in an 83% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month, up from 50% one week ago.

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The popular streaming service just added a bunch of new holiday movies to its roster and dropped a Black Friday streaming deal at the same time.

From now through December 2, you can sign up for either the Paramount+ Essential or Premium plan for just $2.99 per month for two months. That's plenty of time to rewatch all of these Christmas movies while you decide if you want to keep the subscription.

Classic Christmas movies on Paramount+

Share your childhood favorites with the next generation by adding some of these timeless Christmas movies to your marathon list this year:

• Planes, Trains and Automobiles
• Scrooged
• Scrooge (1970)
• All I Want For Christmas
• Home For The Holidays
• The Love Boat: The Christmas Cruise
• Trading Places

Christmas comedies on Paramount+

From feel good family movies to raunchy comedies, these are some of the best Christmas comedies streaming on Paramount+ right now:

• Surviving Christmas
• Happy Christmas
• Santa Stole Our Dog!
• Last Holiday (2006)
• A Fairly Odd Christmas
• Tiny Christmas
• A Clüsterfünke Christmas
• When Christmas Was Young
• Santa Hunters
• Daddy's Home 2
• Twas the Night Before Spongemas
• Friendsgiving

Spooky Christmas movies and festive mysteries to watch on Paramount+

For a change of pace, switch things up by sprinkling a few festive horrors and mysteries into your holiday marathon. Here are some of the spooky picks you'll find on Paramount+:

• Fatman
• Deck the Halls (2011)
• Reindeer Games (2000)
• Dear Santa

How to get a deal on Paramount+

Black Friday is one of the best times of the year to save on streaming. Most major platforms offer some of their best deals during the major shopping event. Paramount+ is no exception. When you sign up before December 2, you can pay just $2.99 per month for the first two months.

That low price applies to both the Paramount+ Essentials plan and Premium plan. If you opt for Premium, you'll not only get no ads but also get access to Showtime content. It’s the perfect excuse to curl up with family, save some cash and enjoy all your streaming favorites.

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Renewed hope for another rate cut in December and refreshed faith in the AI trade carried stocks to a second day of gains to start Thanksgiving week. The Nasdaq led the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher as investors, traders and speculators await more shutdown-delayed economic data amid a slowdown for earnings flow.

Markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, while the stock and bond markets will close early on Friday. Still, the economic calendar includes initial jobless claims for the week ending November 21. We'll also see retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, as well as consumer sentiment data from The Conference Board on Tuesday morning.

"The big bounce in the stock market is being fueled by rising odds for a December 10 key interest rate cut," observes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, citing public statements from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller in support of lower interest rates because of a weakening labor market. That's despite a solid September jobs report.

Futures market pricing currently shows an 80.9% probability the central bank will trim the target range for the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75% at the next Fed meeting in December. That's up from 71.0% on Friday and 42.4% last Monday, according to CME FedWatch.

Navellier also notes a consensus forecast for a 0.4% month-over-month retail sales increase in September. "Walmart (WMT, -1.2%) has already provided positive guidance," he adds, "and I also expect Costco (COST, -1.4%) to report strong same-store sales growth." Costco will report fiscal 2026 first-quarter results in mid-December and provide additional insight on the U.S. consumer.

At Monday's closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had climbed 2.7% to 22,872, the broader S&P 500 had added 1.6% at 6,705, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 0.4% to 46,448.

Elon Musk tweets himself even richer

Tesla (TSLA, +6.8%) stock took a big leap toward the lofty goals that define CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package on a single tweet from CEO Elon Musk. TSLA was up as much as 7.5% intraday and added nearly $90 billion to its market cap by the time the closing bell rang. The stock surge lifted Musk's net worth by about $20 billion.

"Most people don't know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years," Musk tweeted on Sunday. "That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI."

The CEO added that Tesla is using version AI4 of its chips in its cars, is "close to taping out" AI5, and is "starting work" on AI6. "Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months," Musk said.

"We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I'm not kidding," he advised, predicting that Tesla's chips "will profoundly change the world in positive ways."

After Nvidia

The earnings front is relatively quiet in the aftermath of another revolutionary report from Nvidia (NVDA, +2.1%) and "Godfather of AI" Jensen Huang last Wednesday. But a couple of other AI-related and retail names are notable for the perspective they offer on the big picture.

Mid-cap semiconductor stock Semtech (SMTC, +9.7%) and AI-powered robotics outfit Symbotic (SYMB, +3.4%) report after the close today, while Best Buy (BBY, -1.1%) and Kohl's (KSS, +0.3%) are up before the opening bell on Tuesday.

Tesla competitor Li Auto (LI, +0.6%) and farm equipment maker Deere (DE, +0.01%) report on Wednesday morning.

Things might get a little more explosive when NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE, +1.7%) – an emerging leader of a nuclear revolution underpinned by the AI revolution – reports fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results after the close on Wednesday.

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All that money being spent over the holidays brings scammers out of the woodwork as they try to steal your cash, your credit card information and other sensitive data. And the techniques fraudsters use are getting more and more sophisticated every year.

As the biggest sales event of the year rolls around, make sure you're taking advantage of legitimate Black Friday deals at Amazon and other retailers, instead of handing your hard-earned money over to a fraudster. To do that, brush up on how some of the most common Black Friday scams work and the red flags to watch for so you don't fall into these traps.

1. Fake Black Friday deals

Your inbox is probably already seeing a steady stream of Black Friday deal announcements and offers from your favorite brands. Scammers will be using all the frenzy and excitement to try to steal your money. Here's how it works:

• You get an email from what looks like a brand you like, offering a can't-miss Black Friday deal.
• You click through the link in the email to shop the deals on that brand's website.
• The website looks identical to the real thing, but it's actually a fake operated by scammers.
• When you go to check out, you often won't have the option to pay by credit card. Instead, it will request a bank transfer or even cryptocurrency payment.

How to avoid this scam

• Check the URL. Instead of "Amazon," you might notice that the URL actually reads "Amaz0n" (with a zero), for example. There will often be something slightly off about it.
• You can also look at the website itself more closely. Does it have a privacy policy? Does the business have a mailing address? Is there an "about us" page?
• Compare the deal to other retailers. If the website is promising the latest Apple AirPods Pro 3 for $100, but no other retailer has a deal lower than $200, that's a red flag.
• If you can't use a credit card, don't make the purchase. When paying with a credit card, you enjoy some built-in fraud protection – including the option to call up your bank and request a charge back if it turns out the deal was a scam. When you transfer cash from your bank, use a payment app like Zelle or pay with crypto, you don't have those same protections.
• Use shopping guides from trusted news outlets, like our guides to Target's best Black Friday deals or our favorite Walmart Black Friday deals. Even if you don't end up buying any of our picks, the links you used to navigate to the site will be legitimate.

2. Fake order confirmations

This one can come via email or text. Scammers will send you what looks like a legitimate order confirmation, but clicking the link will either install malware on your device or take you to a phishing site. Here's how it works:

• You get an order confirmation via email or text.
• If it looks like an order you recently placed, you might mistake it for a legitimate confirmation and use the link inside to track the shipping progress.
• If it looks like something you never ordered, you might click through the link to investigate or cancel the order.
• In a malware attack, clicking the link is all it takes to install the malware on your device, which will then be able to scrape that device for sensitive information like passwords or financial data.
• In a phishing attack, clicking the link takes you to a webpage that asks for your personal information — often under the guise of helping you track (or cancel) the order.

How to avoid this scam

• Check the email address of the sender. Often, the email will be from a public domain (like gmail rather than Amazon). If not, the domain might be either misspelled or contain extra words. For example, Amazon would be Amaz0n (with a zero) or it might be "Amazoncustomerservice.com" instead of just "Amazon.com."
• Look for threats or pressure tactics. A real order confirmation will never threaten you with things like "click here to avoid order cancellation" or "your order will be deleted if you don't confirm your information."
• Keep track of all your holiday purchases, perhaps by writing a list with order numbers, tracking numbers and other key details. If you get a confirmation that looks like it could be real, compare the order number or tracking number against the actual order you think it might be referring to. If they don't match up, report the sender as spam.

3. The gift card scam

You get an email or text claiming a friend or family member sent you a gift card. Like the order confirmation scam, clicking through the link will either take you to a phishing page or immediately install malware on your device.

How to avoid this scam

• If the message includes a friend or family member's name, reach out to that person directly to ask if they did, in fact, send you a gift card. Do not reply to the gift card message or click on any links in the meantime.
• If no name is included, that's suspicious on its own. But, you can confirm by reaching out to all of your friends and family who tend to send you gifts around the holidays to find out if any of them sent a gift card.
• If nobody you know says they've sent you a gift card, report the phone number or email address as spam.

4. Fake shopping apps

Plenty of retailers offer downloadable apps that you can install on your phone. It's actually become one of the more annoying tech intrusions. But it's important to make sure the app you're downloading is actually the one that belongs to that retailer. Otherwise, you could be walking into a scam.

Counterfeit apps can look surprisingly similar to the real deal. The logo and other details might look just like that of the popular retailer it's impersonating. When you download it, you're actually downloading malware or spyware.

In some cases, the app prompts you to log in, browse what look like real deals and even checkout with your financial information. Now, the scammer has your real login credentials and potentially stole other sensitive information from you as well.

How to avoid this scam

• Check the number of downloads and reviews. A popular brand or major platform like Amazon or Walmart will have millions of downloads and a substantial review history on its app. The fake version, on the other hand, might only have a few thousand downloads and even fewer reviews.
• Check the developer's name. The developer of Walmart's app will be Walmart (spelled correctly). A scammer will either use a slightly misspelled version of the brand they're impersonating or a generic name like "Best Shopping Deals."
• Just don't download the app. Sometimes, retailers offer special perks for downloading their apps. There are some Walmart+ perks that you can only use if you have the app, for example. But, if you don't need those specific perks or you've been fine so far without them, just skip the app. At best, it's taking up space on your phone. At worst, it's a counterfeit app stealing your data.

Shop smart this holiday season

The safest way to shop on Black Friday or any time of year is to be cautious. Stick to retailers you know and trust. Navigate to their websites directly rather than by clicking through links you get in emails or texts.

Above all, remember that Black Friday deals can be good — but if a particular deal seems too good to be true, it probably is.

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Today, the agency announced a new $45 fee for passengers going through security without a REAL ID or an acceptable alternative.

Taking effect on February 1, the fee applies to anyone using the agency's new "alternative identity verification program" designed specifically for passengers without a compliant form of identification. Here's what you need to know ahead of your next flight.

TSA to charge $45 fee to travelers with no REAL ID

After repeated delays, the TSA officially began enforcing the use of the REAL ID to get through airport security in May. While many states had already switched over by then, Americans who hadn't renewed their driver's license since the switch or who lived in states that hadn't made the change yet scrambled to get the compliant form of identification.

Now that travelers have had a few months to get their driver's license updated to the new format, the TSA has announced plans to start charging a fee to travelers who still haven't done so.

"This fee ensures the cost to cover verification of an insufficient ID will come from the traveler, not the taxpayer. The security of the traveling public is our top priority, so we urge all travelers to get a REAL ID or other acceptable form of ID as soon as possible to avoid delays and potentially miss flights,” the agency said in a press release on Monday.

If you're going through security without a REAL ID or one of the government-approved REAL ID alternatives, you'll see a $45 fee for doing so starting in February. The price is based on the estimated cost of operating the TSA Confirm.ID process, an alternative identity verification program created to screen passengers who don't have a compliant form of ID.

REAL ID alternatives to avoid the TSA fee

If you want to avoid the new TSA fee but can't make time to go to the DMV before February, you may already have an acceptable alternative. According to the TSA, 94% of passengers are already using either a REAL ID or a valid alternative.

Acceptable REAL ID alternatives include:

• A U.S. passport or passport card
• Global Entry, NEXUS, SENTRI or other trusted traveler card issued by the Department of Homeland Security.
• A permanent resident card
• A border crossing card
• A Veteran Health Identification card
• A photo ID issued by a federally recognized tribal nation, including Enhanced Tribal Cards
• A USCIS Employment Authorization card

If you don't have any of those alternatives, you'll have to go through an additional screening process. In addition to the extra $45 fee, expect the process to take longer than it would normally. That means showing up earlier than usual to make sure the additional screening doesn't cause you to miss your flight.

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Stocks were choppy to start Friday, but took a notable turn higher after a speech from New York Fed President John Williams temporarily eased rate-cut worries. Still, the main indexes finished with big weekly losses – putting them on track for their worst November in years.

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point at its September and October meetings. And one month ago, futures traders were pricing in 98% odds of another rate cut in December. But expectations eased back in recent weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut wasn't a sure thing and the September jobs report came in stronger than expected.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a quarter-point cut when the Fed concludes its next gathering on December 10 is now at 72% – up from 39% one day ago – after Williams, one of the highest ranked Fed officials, said Friday that he sees "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to bring interest rates closer to neutral.

"My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat," Williams said in his speech to economists in Santiago, Chile. "Underlying inflation continues to trend downward, absent any evidence of second-round effects emanating from tariffs."

"Economic data also supported the recovery [in stocks], as Flash PMIs signaled the fastest pace of growth this month since July, bolstering optimism about corporate earnings resilience," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Indeed, S&P Global's Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and its Services PMI both hit a four-month high in November.

"The flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant U.S. economy in November, signaling annualized GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter," says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "The upturn also looks encouragingly broad-based for now, with output rising across both manufacturing and the vast services economy."

Not all the news was good news, though, with the Flash Manufacturing PMI hitting a four-month low. According to Williamson, manufacturers "reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and … accumulation of unsold inventory."

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% at 22,273, the broader S&P 500 was 1.0% higher at 6,603 and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 1.1% to 46,245.

Bitcoin sinks to its lowest level since April

While the stock market managed a late-week turnaround, bitcoin did not. The price of bitcoin, which trades 24 hours a day, was last seen down 2% to trade at $84,432 – the lowest it's been since late April. The cryptocurrency has now shed nearly 33% since its early October peak above $126,000.

"The damage in the crypto sector, always volatile, is now the worst since 2022, says Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates. "Often seen as an indication of risk sentiment, the huge correction is now forcing liquidation among several dealers and has caused a selloff of all the alternative coins."

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani isn't overly worried about the slump. "We believe institutional (and eventually sovereign) ownership of bitcoin is a structural long-term trend and the current price action reflects a (relatively) shallow and short-term correction."

Gap earnings help retail stock extend its rebound

In single stock news, Gap (GAP) shares surged 8.2% after the specialty apparel retailer reported higher-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue and same-store-sales growth of 5%. Gap also raised the bottom end of its full-year sales forecast.

The retail stock is now up nearly 27% from its mid-October lows, but Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton thinks there's more room to run. The analyst reiterated her Overweight (Buy) rating on Gap after earnings and lifted her price target to $31 from $30 – representing implied upside of 24% to current levels.

"GAP's Q3 print offers further evidence that management's brand reinvigoration initiatives are proving successful, with performance becoming increasingly more consistent," Straton says.

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Stocks shot higher out of the gate Thursday with bulls encouraged by Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report and stronger-than-expected September jobs data. However, the tide quickly turned and all three main indexes were staring at stiff losses by lunchtime as the AI bellwether turned lower and odds for a December rate cut dwindled.

At Thursday's open, stock market gains ranged between 1.3% and 2.1%. But at the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.8% at 45,752, the broader S&P 500 was off 1.6% at 6,538, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slumped 2.2% to 22,078.

Nvidia's Q3 earnings report hit all the high notes – top- and bottom-line beats, upbeat guidance and confirmation of $500 billion in forward orders for the company's Blackwell and Rubin chips.

Shares rose roughly 6% in Wednesday's after-hours session and opened Thursday more than 4% higher. But NVDA was down 3.2% at the close – making it one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks of the day – as AI bubble worries resurfaced.

"The staggering amounts of capital that the hyperscalers are investing in AI infrastructure has made investors wonder if there will ever be a pay-off big enough to justify the outlays," says Jim Kelleher, director of research at Argus.

While Kelleher believes AI has "many more chapters to be written as possibly the most transformative technology since the internet," it's less clear "how it will perform as an investment vehicle in the intermediate term."

September jobs report keeps the odds of a December rate cut low

Weighing on sentiment was the shutdown-delayed release of the September jobs report, which showed a strong headline beat – 119,000 jobs added vs 50,000 expected – but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.

The report also showed downwardly revised figures for July and August, resulting in 33,000 fewer jobs combined in those two months than previously reported.

The September jobs report "added fresh uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's December 10 policy decision," says Richard Potts, economist at Bondford. "Ultimately, this was a jobs report with something for everyone. The headline strength argues against an immediate rate cut, but the underlying softness gives policymakers room to move if they choose."

The data leave a divided Fed with a tough call in December. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will keep the federal funds rate unchanged when it meets next month – down from 70% one day ago but up from 1% one month ago.

Walmart shines after earnings

Not all of the day's news was doom and gloom. Walmart (WMT) shot up 6.5% after the world's largest retailer reported higher-than-expected fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings and revenue. It also raised its full-year forecast.

"WMT continues to block and tackle, which is exactly what investors would like to see after the CEO change from Doug McMillon to John Furner," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. "It shouldn't be a surprise that this transition coincided with a very WMT-esq report via a beat and raise and strong commentary around positioning."

Wagner adds that long term, he'd be a buyer of the Dow stock on any omnichannel weakness "as margin expansion continues to outperform peers."

In a separate announcement, Walmart said it will move its common stock listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), effective December 9. Its ticker symbol will not change.

"Moving to Nasdaq aligns with the people-led, tech-powered approach to our long-term strategy," said Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey. "Walmart is setting a new standard for omnichannel retail by integrating automation and AI to build smarter, faster and more connected experiences for customers, while enabling our associates to deliver even greater value at scale."

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The latest American Farm Bureau (AFB) Federation survey puts the average cost of Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people at $55.18. That’s down about 5% from 2024.

But as anyone wandering the grocery aisles can tell you, the dip in prices hasn’t solved the challenges of local taxes, inflation on side dishes, or the hunt for a meal deal that matches last year’s value.​ Here’s more to know as you plan your celebration.

Thanksgiving meal deals

From rising food prices to state grocery taxes and tariffs, many factors are influencing this year’s feast and how retailers are responding.

Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal returns for under $40 (less than $4 per person based on a 10-person gathering). That includes turkey, several sides and dessert.

“We know every dollar and minute counts — which is why we are offering a low-priced, one-click Thanksgiving Meal Basket featuring iconic brands like Butterball and Stove Top alongside trusted Walmart private brand items,” Walmart U.S. President and CEO John Furner stated in a release.

As CNN reports, this year’s kit includes fewer items and more “Great Value” Walmart store brand items than last year's bundle.

Target advertises a $20 Thanksgiving meal deal kit for four, while Aldi touts deals that bring the per-person price even lower to $4 per person, which the chain notes in a press release, is “less than a pumpkin spice latte.”

Note: According to Aldi: The meal deal “includes 21 total products and ingredients to dish out a 14-pound turkey, rolls, cranberry sauce, mac and cheese, stuffing, mashed potatoes with gravy, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie. Items that are part of the meal are purchased individually.”

Some meal deals might come with caveats. This year’s lowest-priced bundles might include fewer fresh vegetables and substitutions for pricier favorites.

On the bright side, the AFB notes that this year, “a 16-pound turkey only accounts for 39% of the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner.” (That’s Turkey’s lowest share since 2000.)

• Meanwhile, such side dishes as cranberry sauce and some name-brand rolls have reportedly jumped more than 40% in some markets, even as prices on frozen veggies decreased.
• The Farm Bureau says, “price increases for fresh produce and key baking ingredients reflect higher costs throughout the supply chain.”

In its latest report, the AFB explains:

“Items like fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes posted some of the most notable increases. A veggie tray is up more than 61% and sweet potatoes are up 37%. Natural disasters contributed to these higher costs. North Carolina, which produces more than half of the nation’s sweet potatoes, experienced hurricane damage that reduced yields and tightened supplies ahead of the holiday.”

Grocery taxes: Where you shop matters

State sales taxes also play a significant role in the real price of Thanksgiving dinner. As of late 2025, 13 states still impose some form of sales tax on groceries.

In Alabama and Mississippi, for instance, families can face effective sales tax rates as high as 9% on grocery staples, adding up to $5 to a typical dinner basket.

• Kansas stands out for eliminating its grocery food tax as of January 1, 2025. This means a shopper there pays just the shelf price on food and food ingredients.
• In some places, prepared foods can carry an additional local or “meals tax,” as seen in Louisiana and Virginia.

Check your state’s tax policy on food and groceries. Even small taxes can make that store-bought Thanksgiving bundle pricier than advertised, depending on where you live.

What about tariffs?

Adding to these challenges, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have impacted several food categories, especially those with more extensive packaging. Examples include canned vegetables, which can be more expensive due to steel and aluminum tariffs.

The Trump administration recently announced tariff rollbacks on such goods as coffee, tropical fruits and certain spices. However, many of those items aren’t traditional Thanksgiving staples.

For SNAP recipients and many working families, the checkout experience is still challenging. New federal rules and delayed benefits due to the recent government shutdown have left some with less to spend — even as food costs stabilize a bit.

Why is Thanksgiving so late this year?

Meanwhile, another question on some people’s minds involves this year's late Thanksgiving date.

Thanksgiving 2025 falls on Thursday, November 27, the latest possible date for the holiday this year.

Since Thanksgiving is celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November, a tradition established by Congress in 1941, and November began on a Friday, the 2025 holiday falls near the end of the month.

This late Thanksgiving creates a shorter holiday season, with less than four weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Thanksgiving 2025: Bottom line

The story for 2025: The cost of Thanksgiving dinner has ticked down a little, but the actual number on your receipt doesn’t just depend on what you buy or where you shop. It can also be impacted by a web of sales taxes and tariffs.

If you’re in a state that has eliminated or lowered its grocery tax or you find a great holiday meal deal, you might see some relief at the checkout. But as always, pay attention to the fine print in your area to savor the smartest savings.

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The September jobs report, delayed from its initial October 3 release date due to the record-long government shutdown, came in higher than expected. While this is good news for those worried about a sharp slowdown in the labor market, it does keep the odds of a December rate cut low.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, beating economists' estimate for 50,000 new jobs. Figures for July were revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, while those for August were revised lower by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.

These revisions result in 33,000 fewer jobs combined in July and August than previously reported.

As for September, job gains were seen in health care (adding 43,000) and social assistance (adding 14,000). However, federal government jobs declined by 3,000, and are now down by 97,000 since January.

The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey, ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. The data also showed that wage growth was 0.2% higher month over month in September and up 3.8% year over year.

"The delayed September employment data will likely not have had enough of an impact to convince the Fed to cut at the December meeting," says Ryan Weldon, investment director and portfolio manager at IFM Investors. "The minutes from the October meeting revealed clear apprehension from more than a few Fed members regarding support for a December cut, and the cancellation of the October jobs report due to the government shutdown will only reinforce a cautious approach in December."

Weldon adds that the Federal Reserve still considers the federal funds rate to be in restrictive territory, "but the data uncertainty and conflicting inflation and employment pressures will keep them cautious until the macro backdrop clears up."

According to CME Group's FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 58% chance the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged when it concludes its next meeting on Wednesday, December 10, up from 1% one month ago. Odds are at 50% that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter-percentage point when it meets in January.

With the September jobs report now in the books, here's some of what economists, strategists and other experts around Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for the Fed and investors going forward.

Experts' takes on the September jobs report and what it means for the Fed

"Thursday's jobs report was much stronger than expected and it's possible that the Federal Reserve may take more of a wait-and-see approach to rates in December, especially since there is still uncertainty over the economic data, which has only first started to come back online after the drought from the government shutdown. Thursday's jobs report suggests that the labor market is not as weak as feared." – Alexander Guiliano, Chief Investment Officer at Resonate Wealth Partners

"The Fed's decision when they meet in December is a tricky one, but there's a good chance that would be the case even with all of the data in hand. With risks to both sides of their dual mandate at odds, they're seeking clarity in an incomplete picture. We don't yet know when the next batch of consumer inflation data will be released, and this will be the last jobs report before their meeting. Fortunately, they will get some insight into the actual state-of-play in layoffs when the October JOLTS report is released the first day they convene." – Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at NerdWallet

"This combination — solid job gains and stable pay growth — complicates the Federal Reserve's task: it shows that labor demand remains firm, even as the Fed seeks clearer signs of cooling before committing to rate cuts. Interestingly, the initial reaction saw markets pricing in a higher chance of a cut likely focusing on the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate. As a result, the dollar pared back some of its daily gains, as did yields, whilst the stock market took it as another sign to build on yesterday's reversal. However, this momentum may fizzle out quickly as the data is digested further, with the potential for a continuation in the dollar rebound as markets reassess the rate cut odds." – Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com

"A December cut remains possible given continued labor market softness as expressed by the unemployment rate. Weak hard data and close-to-target inflation look set to drive policy going forward, despite recent hawkish noises. The setup is in place for Powell to continue his risk-management approach to the labor market before his term as Chair expires in May." – Kay Haigh, Global Co-Head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"The one-two punch of a stellar Nvidia earnings report last night and a better-than-expected September jobs report this morning should give the market a boost, given that it directly addresses the two biggest concerns of the bears: an AI bubble and a moribund economy." – Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management

"Although job cut announcements have risen, actual layoffs remain tame as evidenced by this morning's decline in initial jobless claim filings back toward recent lows. We believe the December Fed meeting remains a toss-up, with the hawkish case being bolstered by strong headline job creation and the dovish case supported by the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. More immediately, today's payrolls release is being viewed as a 'good news is good news' dynamic for equities, which we believe is appropriate given that today's data does not show downside risks to labor materializing while keeping the prospect for further rate cuts alive, whether next month or in 2026. This dynamic should provide support for risk assets in the near term." – Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments

"September's long-awaited jobs report offers a reminder that the labor market is cooling — and maybe faster than the headlines suggest. Payrolls rose 119,000, a mild upside surprise, but the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent and is now closing in on the Fed's 4.5 percent projection ahead of schedule. The underlying trend is softer than it looks. That's why the more aggressive tone from the Fed lately feels misplaced. Inflation has eased ex-tariff related goods, labor slack is building, and today's data is stale and mixed at best. Tightening the screws now risks leaning into a slowdown already in motion." – Timothy S. Chubb, Chief Investment Officer at Girard

"From an investment perspective, we are all really looking for any signs of direction in the overall employment picture. Monthly payroll gains are part of that, but they are only one piece. Another indicator that can offer early insight is the quits rate. When people are less willing to quit, it generally means they know that finding a new job, especially a better job, is unlikely, which can portend higher unemployment." – Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist at Edelman Financial Engines

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One of the best-kept secrets for finding under-$20 gifts that will put a smile on people's faces is Amazon Haul. The home of "crazy low" prices and deeply discounted finds, Amazon Haul is a place where everything you see costs $20 or less.

Sure, you won't find the newest Nintendo Switch for your grandkid or a diamond-studded tennis bracelet for your wife. But, there are some surprisingly gift-worthy items on there if you're willing to dig. So, if you need budget-friendly stocking stuffers for the family or low-cost gift ideas to pass out to coworkers and extended relatives, Amazon Haul is a great resource to use.

Still not convinced? Check out some of the best under-$20 gift ideas from the platform below to see what kind of items you'll find.

Best Amazon Haul travel gifts

For the frequent flyers on your gift list this year, make their next trip more comfortable by gifting them one of these under-$20 travel gadgets and accessories.

• Small Portable USB-C Charger, 5000mAh, $10
• Retro Canvas Crossbody Bag, $14
• Travel essentials Electronic Cable Organizer Pouch, $10
• Mini Refillable Perfume Travel Bottle, 5-Pack, $3
• RFID Blocking Passport Holder, $6 (originally $10)
• Travel Jewelry Organizer Case, $13
• Portable Charger with Built-in USB-C Cable, $16

Best Amazon Haul gifts for kids and teens

Need some stocking stuffers for the kids and teens in your life that won't break the bank? Here are 10 Amazon Haul finds that are all $20 or less.

• Kids Camera Instant Print, $17
• Build Your Own FM Radio Kit for Kids, $10 (originally $13)
• Newborn Winter Romper Fleece Hooded Jumpsuit, $19
• Gamie Mini Electronic Memory Game, $10 (originally $13)
• Mp3 Player with Bluetooth 5.3 HiFi Sound, $20
• Vgogfly Lined Men's Knit Beanie, $10
• Winter Cable Knit Beanie Hat for Women, $12
• Buffalo Games Mountains on Fire - 1000 Piece Jigsaw Puzzle, $11 (originally $15)
• adidas Women's Athletic Cushioned Crew Socks, 6-Pack, $17 (originally $26)

Best home and kitchen deals on Amazon Haul

If you need a crowd-pleaser gift for a coworker or a white elephant gift exchange, it's hard to go wrong with a handy gadget or decor for the home. Here are a few under-$20 gift ideas to consider.

• Dosmix Retro Bluetooth Speaker, $13 (originally $17)
• Bicycle Pizza Cutter Wheel, $10
• TRZLIFE Cordless Desk Vacuum Cleaner, $17
• French Press Coffee Maker, 11.8 oz, $10
• 2 in 1 Glass Oil Sprayer & Dispenser,16 oz, $8
• Electric Pepper and Salt Grinder, $10
• Artificial Fall Lighted Maple Tree, $20 (originally $26)

If these exact options aren't a fit for your gift-giving needs, shop around on the Amazon Haul site. There are plenty of options and you're sure to find something that will work for everyone, including yourself.

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Stocks rallied hard to start Wednesday, but the enthusiasm quickly faded as market participants looked ahead to tonight's highly anticipated earnings report from Nvidia and tomorrow morning's delayed release of the September jobs report.

At the close, the broader S&P 500 was 0.4% higher at 6,642 and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.1% to 46,138 – snapping their four-day losing streaks – while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.6% at 22,564.

Nvidia's third-quarter results and forward guidance will give Wall Street a better read on demand for artificial intelligence chips, particularly amid growing concerns about an AI bubble.

While NVDA closed today up 2.9%, the blue chip stock is down more than 8% for the month to date on worries valuations in several mega-cap stocks have become too frothy.

But James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research, says this "brief reset ... means the stock now has a slightly lower bar to clear post-earnings." Demmert expects "Nvidia to exceed estimates and provide future earnings and revenue guidance that is higher than investors expect."

He adds that it is "unlikely that Nvidia has seen any slowdown in demand for its products, even with increased competition, given how early we are in the AI cycle."

As for concerns over a potential AI bubble, the CIO reminds us that "all technology revolutions create bubble-like stock price performance," and excitement over all things artificial intelligence is currently expanding at a healthy pace.

While valuations are indeed lofty, Demmert says they're still trading at a discount to earnings growth rates, and sentiment has not yet reached the euphoric stage that signals a market top.

You can follow along with all the latest Nvidia earnings news on our live blog.

Semrush soars on Adobe buyout buzz

Elsewhere in the AI space, Creative Cloud parent Adobe (ADBE, -2.0%) said it will buy digital marketing platform Semrush (SEMR) for $1.9 billion in cash, or $12 per SEMR share. This represents a 77.5% premium to the tech stock's Tuesday close – and the announcement sent Semrush shares 74% higher on Wednesday.

"Brand visibility is being reshaped by generative AI, and brands that don't embrace this new opportunity risk losing relevance and revenue," said Anil Chakravarthy, president of Adobe's Digital Experience Business, in the press release. "With Semrush, we're unlocking GEO [generative engine optimization] for marketers as a new growth channel alongside their SEO, driving more visibility, customer engagement and conversions across the ecosystem."

William Blair analyst Jake Roberge reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating on Adobe stock earlier this week.

"While recent competitive noise and seat growth questions in the creative ecosystem have added a layer of complexity to the story, we believe Adobe can durably grow earnings at a low- to mid-teens pace over the next two to three years," Roberge wrote in a note to clients. "Therefore, we believe the stock is compelling for long-term shareholders."

The September jobs report will finally be released

In economic news, Wall Street will be tuned into tomorrow morning's release of the September jobs report, which was delayed from its initial October 3 release date due to the record-long government shutdown.

Data released over the summer showed a concerning slowdown in the labor market, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at both its September and October meetings.

But expectations of a third straight rate cut at the next Fed meeting in December have declined in recent weeks amid a lack of concrete economic data. And today's release of the minutes from the October Fed meeting shows central bank officials were split on any additional rate cuts this year.

"Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period," the minutes stated (PDF). "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."

As of November 19, CME Group FedWatch assigns a 34% chance the Fed will cut rates in December, down from 94% one month ago.

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Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were down for the day, with declines for consumer discretionary, industrial, utility, financial and technology stocks dramatized by downgrades for big names in three of them. Major questions about the sustainability and the profitability of capex spending for new computing power continue to color this week's price action. Worried about an AI bubble? So is Wall Street.

Meanwhile, the Census Bureau said factory orders increased 1.4%‌ month over month in August, in line with expectations, following a 1.3% decline in July. Orders were up 3.3% year over year. And the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index ticked up to 38 in November from 37 in October, but remains in contraction territory.

Interest rates and the next Fed meeting remain key issues for investors, traders and speculators with the August jobs report now set for release Thursday morning.

But the main event is on the earnings calendar. And it's happening after tomorrow's close.

At Tuesday's closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.2% at 22,432, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 1.1% to 46,091, and the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.8% at 6,617.

HON hit with double downgrade

Honeywell (HON) sank 2.4% after BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin double downgraded the industrial stock to Underperform, or Sell, from Buy. Obin also reduced his 12-month target price on HON from $265 to $205.

Obin, who notes the conglomerate is separating into two businesses in the second half of 2026, Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation, says the company has fallen short with its plans for management as well as its earnings forecasts.

"EPS growth has lagged peers," the analyst concludes, "which we expect to continue despite M&A."

MSFT and AMZN get downgraded too

Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), two of the so-called hyperscalers driving exponential growth in AI infrastructure spending, caught downgrades from Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Alexander Haissl.

Haissl's primary contention is that capital intensity for the generative AI buildout is "significantly higher" compared to cloud computing, while pricing power is notably weaker."

Haissl cut both stocks from Buy to Neutral, or Hold. He maintained his 12-month target price of $250 for AMZN. His new 12-month target price for MSFT is $500, down from $560.

All about Nvidia and the earnings calendar

Home Depot (HD) was the worst of the 30 Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday after the home improvement retailer reported EPS of $3.62 (-1.4% year over year) on sales of $41.35 billion (+2.8% YoY). Analysts expected $3.84 on $41.15 billion. Comparable sales were up 0.2% vs a consensus forecast of 1.3%.

Home Depot said full-year comparable sales would be slightly positive vs a previous forecast of growth of up to 1%. And management now expects EPS to be down 5%, worse than its previous guidance for 2% deterioration. HD shed 6.0%

Despite the top-line recovery, margins remain soft due to increased operating expenses, tariffs on imported goods, rising wages and logistics costs, according to Zacks Investment Management Senior Client Portfolio Manager Brian Mulberry.

"The lack of turnover in the housing market and high financing costs have tapered consumer spending on bigger projects and appliances," Mulberry explained. "That said, by the middle of next year, rates will be lower and other cost structures should move from a headwind to a tailwind, and the long-term growth looks better than the near term."

For the record, Nvidia (NVDA) was down 2.8%. Be sure to tune in to our live Nvidia earnings blog for the latest commentary, numbers when they come out and CEO Jensen Huang's press conference.

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After years of inflation driving up prices, many Americans are feeling the pinch. To cut your budget, you might be looking for ways to be more frugal.

In general, frugality is good. It's a way to be more intentional about what you buy and how you use it to avoid overspending when you can.

But in the pursuit of pinching every penny, it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. Sometimes, the effort or stress you're adding to your life aren't worth the few cents you're saving. Even worse, some frugal habits aren't saving you money at all.

As you look for ways to trim waste from your budget, avoid falling into the trap of following frugal habits that aren't worth it.

1. Driving far out of your way to save a few cents on gas

Within a certain radius, driving a little out of your way to save on gas could make sense, but there's a point at which the gas used to get there outweighs any savings you're getting.

Let's say your car averages about 22 miles per gallon for city driving. If the cheaper gas station is 11 miles out of your way, you'll use half a gallon getting there and half a gallon getting back.

Meanwhile, a typical gas tank on a midsize car holds about 16 gallons. At the current average price of $3.07 per gallon, the prices at the further station would need to be more than 19 cents lower per gallon than the station closest to you just to break even on the gallon of gas you used to drive there and back.

What to do instead

There are lots of ways to get discounts on gas without having to hunt down the lowest-priced station. One of the best options is to get a Costco membership and time your fill-ups with grocery shopping trips.

If you don't live near a Costco, there are other memberships that let you save on gas. You can also get cash back credit cards that offer 3% or more every time you fuel up.

If you stack that cash back on top of a membership that includes discounted gas, you could save more than 15 cents per gallon without having to drive out of your way.

2. Driving to multiple stores in a single trip to find deals

Driving all over town to visit multiple grocery stores because blueberries are cheaper at one place, but the butter you like is cheaper at another is probably not worth the time and gas.

You can use similar math as above to calculate how much you spend on gas to see if the price difference between stores is worth the extra gas you're using to hit multiple locations.

Even without calculating the cost of gas, think about the value of your time. Is paying 20 cents less for blueberries worth, say, the 20 minutes of your time spent driving to a different store and waiting in line to pay for your slightly cheaper produce?

What to do instead

If you have multiple stores you like, do a rotation in which you visit one per shopping trip.

For example, say you have four stores that you normally visit when you go grocery shopping every week.

Instead of going to every store every week, go to one store this week and stock up on a month's supply of whatever it is that store does best. Next week, go to another store and do the same.

Rotate through your stores so you're only ever going to one store per week, but you always have enough of your favorite groceries to get you through until that particular store is back in your rotation.

3. Buying everything in bulk

Yes, the per-unit price is lower if you buy a year's supply of coffee compared with the smaller bags. But a few months into your year's supply of coffee, it's going to taste stale and bitter. Taste aside, there are some items that you shouldn't buy in bulk because they'll spoil or lose potency after a time.

If the item will expire before you can use it, you're not saving money by buying bulk. You're wasting it.

Bulk buying is great for nonperishable items such as toilet paper or paper towels. It's also a good option for the things your household consumes a lot of. If your family eats more than a dozen eggs per week, buy the big case of eggs at Costco.

What to do instead

Do some math to make sure you don't stock up beyond what you can use before an item expires.

Even for nonperishable items, be mindful of how much you stock up. Sure, you can pay less per roll by buying a year's supply of toilet paper. But do you have a place to store that much toilet paper where it won't be in your way?

4. Handwashing dishes rather than running the dishwasher

If the dishes in question aren't dishwasher safe, you'll need to handwash them. But if it can go in the dishwasher, it probably should. These machines are more water-efficient than many people give them credit for.

If you have a relatively modern dishwasher, it's probably using a little more than three gallons (PDF) of water per cycle. Some use as little as one gallon per cycle.

Meanwhile, the gallons used when handwashing depend on your technique. If you keep the faucet running, you're probably using about 15 gallons (PDF) every five minutes. If you fill the sink to soak your dirty dishes, that uses about five gallons. You'll use a few more gallons to rinse them.

With either handwashing method, you'll use more water than a modern dishwasher pretty quickly. Even if the dishwasher is only partially full, it's still probably more water-efficient to just run it rather than handwashing.

What to do instead

In terms of cutting your water bill, your landscaping is likely the biggest drain on your budget. Finding ways to make your garden more water-efficient will pay off far more than being stingy about your dishwasher usage.

Other simple habit changes such as shaving a few minutes off of your daily shower and turning the faucet off while brushing your teeth or washing your hands can also cut your water usage without significantly impacting quality of life.

5. DIY repairs that really should be done by a pro

I used to be guilty of this one. A couple of years ago, I got quotes to have my back door replaced. It was just a straight forward swap of the old door for a new door of the same size.

All the quotes were higher than I liked. I let YouTube convince me this was a perfectly reasonable DIY project even though I'd never so much as replaced a showerhead up to that point.

It was messy, tedious, harder than it looked and required buying a few power tools that I didn't have.

It also took the better part of a day when a pro could have been in and out in a couple of hours — and it still kind of creeks in a way that I should probably have someone come check out.

What to do instead

When comparing the cost of DIY to hiring a pro, factor in the added time and effort it will take you as an amateur.

Some people are very handy and could do a job like that just as well as the pros. I am not one of those people, and if you aren't either, the money you'll save isn't worth the stress you'll add to your life.

6. Keeping every jar, box or container you get

Yes, those glass pasta sauce jars feel too useful to toss out. Yes, they're great for storing leftovers. But at a certain point, you have to admit you don't need a cupboard piled high with hundreds of them.

This applies to all those random things that add clutter to your home because they just look too useful to throw away.

What to do instead

Save a few jars, and recycle the rest. Maybe consider rotating them out with new ones once in a while rather than continuously adding to your collection.

7. Depriving yourself of joy and comfort to save a couple of bucks

With a lot of frugal habits, the savings we're talking about are pennies or dollars. There are a few exceptions that lead to bigger savings.

If you're giving up your favorite shampoo to save a dollar every other month, that's only worth it if the replacement shampoo works for you. If you hate the scent or you don't like the way it dries out your hair, pay an extra dollar for the good stuff.

I meal prep because it means I don't have to cook every night. I hang dry most of my laundry because I don't mind doing it and it saves a bit on electricity. But once a week, I drive miles across town to buy single-origin, small batch roasted coffee from a local roaster.

I could probably buy a month of beans at Costco for what I pay for a weekly bag. But my fancy cup of joe each morning brings me joy. For someone else, hanging laundry might sound like torture, but they're just fine buying commercial grade coffee at a grocery store.

What to do instead

The balance between saving money and depriving yourself will be different for everyone. There are a lot of frugal habits that might be fine for some, but would make another person miserable.

Ultimately, you want to look for ways to be frugal in areas in which the cost-saving alternative doesn't significantly impact your quality of life. Then, use those savings to splurge in the areas where you'll appreciate the luxury.

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Online searches for “stimulus checks” are climbing, and speculation about government payments has intensified after President Donald Trump revived one of his attention-grabbing ideas: sending some U.S. taxpayers $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks.

Trump claims his tariffs on imported goods have generated enough money to fund the plan and to pay down some of the deficit. However, since tariffs are taxes, U.S. consumers are bearing much of the burden of the administration's trade policy, and some fiscal experts say the "dividend" numbers don’t add up.

So, the question is: Will you receive a $2,000 payment soon? Here’s what you need to know.

Related: Costco Sues Trump Administration Over Tariffs: What to Know

Are Trump 'tariff dividend checks' really on the way?

Trump recently revived his proposal to provide a $2,000 payment to some U.S. taxpayers. He’s framing it as a fair share of the revenues generated by sweeping tariffs he’s implemented on imported goods since the start of his second term as president.

In a recent post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote the following:

“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Trump suggests the new plan for 2026 stimulus payments is a patriotic payback to working families, who are shouldering higher costs. However, you might recall that this message echoes previous flirtations.

For instance, not long ago, the Trump administration talked about “DOGE dividends” — payments tied to Elon Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency cuts. Those “savings” never materialized into payments to taxpayers.

And Trump’s call for tariff dividends raises other questions. Who will be considered “high earners”? When and how will the money be sent?

In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to temper expectations.

On ABC’s This Week, Bessent said the administration is exploring whether the “dividend” would come in the form of direct payments, temporary tax relief, or another form, like tax cuts in the recently enacted 2025 Trump tax bill.

“The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans.”

*Note: The 2025 Trump/GOP tax bill does not end taxes on Social Security benefits. For more information, see Social Security Tax Cuts Missing From Trump Tax Bill.

• On Fox News, Bessent noted that Congress must approve any such payout and that no final design has been established yet.
• The Treasury Secretary also floated an income limit — possibly excluding households earning over $100,000 — but stressed those details remain under discussion.
• More recently, Bessent acknowledged a trade-off between using tariff revenue for checks versus paying down the federal debt.

Tariff stimulus: Is there enough tariff revenue to go around?

The fiscal realities and trade-offs are key, as several budgetary experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of Trump’s proposal.

John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, told reporters, “It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate.”

That’s based on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs may bring in $200 billion to $300 billion annually. (That amount reportedly constitutes less than 4% of total federal revenue.)

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that issuing a one-time $2,000 payment to every American, including children, would cost approximately $600 billion — roughly triple the current annual tariff revenue.

And even if the checks were limited to those making $100,000 or less, Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, points out that this would mean checks going to an estimated 150 million Americans at a minimum cost of $300 billion.

Takeaway? Tariff revenue has grown, but not nearly enough to fund dividend checks of this scale without dramatically increasing the federal deficit.

• Despite tariff growth, the federal deficit in fiscal 2025 still reached nearly $1.8 trillion, according to data from the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
• The International Monetary Fund warns that while tariffs can temporarily curb deficits, they often distort trade and raise consumer prices.
• The Tax Foundation notes that as tariffs rise, imports tend to fall. That can potentially undercut the revenue source Trump claims to want to redistribute.

Trump tariffs Supreme Court ruling

Then there’s also the looming question of the legal sustainability of Trump’s tariff policies.

As Kiplinger has reported, the U.S. Supreme Court is currently considering challenges to Trump's tariffs, examining the broad application of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which underpins many of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

If the court invalidates many of the tariffs, the ruling could significantly affect the availability of funds for the proposed tariff dividends and possibly necessitate tariff refunds. (During oral arguments in the tariff case, Justice Amy Coney Barrett pondered the potential administrative “mess” involved in ordering massive tariff refunds for affected importers.)

Then, here’s the legislative hurdle surrounding tariff dividends. As Besent acknowledged, Congress would have to pass legislation to authorize the payments.

Earlier this year, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced a bill that would mandate annual “tariff rebates” for lower- and middle-income families, funded by duties on Chinese imports.

Hawley’s version, which hasn’t moved in Congress, would stop short of setting a flat $2,000 figure. If approved, the bill would reportedly provide at least $600 per adult and dependent child, meaning a family of four could receive a minimum of $2,400 in rebates.

• The $600 would be a guaranteed minimum per eligible person.
• But if tariff revenues exceed projections, payments could increase proportionally.

Meanwhile, even some Trump allies acknowledge the need for congressional approval for any such payments, meaning that any rollout of Trump dividends will face political and procedural headwinds.

Investor and Shark Tank personality, Kevin O'Leary, recently warned that sending out checks funded by tariffs is just a “quick band‑aid” that risks acting as a “silent tax” by stoking inflation.

On X (formerly Twitter). O’Leary posted: “Everyone loves the idea of a free check, especially in a tough economy. But here’s the truth, and it’s not always popular. Sending out $2000 checks funded by tariffs might feel good in the moment, but it does nothing to fix the core problem.”

He later told reporters that any new tariff revenue should be used to pay down the national debt and shore up long‑term economic stability.

Also, worth noting: After the longest US government shutdown in history, Congress is already battling over ACA tax credit subsidies and government funding levels.

Trump giving $2,000 checks: Bottom line

The idea of a Trump $2,000 “tariff dividend” might understandably resonate with many households. But fiscal realities remain shaky, the legal situation is uncertain, and congressional cooperation is far from guaranteed.

Budget Pressure: The plan could significantly deepen the deficit unless the payouts are sharply limited.

Revenue Volatility: Tariff revenue tends to fluctuate, particularly when imports decline or trade partners retaliate.

Debt Trade-Off: Using tariff proceeds for checks would divert funds from federal debt reduction.

Legislative Hurdles: Congressional approval will be required for direct federal payments.

Legal Risks: Ongoing court challenges could narrow Trump’s tariff authority and erode the revenue base.

So, for now, the “tariff dividend” looks more like another idea than a budget-ready program that taxpayers can look forward to. Focus on practical financial steps for now, including taking advantage of existing tax breaks and legitimate employment and income opportunities.

But, as always, stay tuned. Some states are sending various forms of rebates and relief payments this year.

This story has been updated to include information about Trump allies' views of the proposed dividend checks.

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Earlier this month, President Donald Trump released a graphic on his social media platform Truth Social titled “Great American Presidents.” Inside the graphic were the words “30-Year Mortgage” above a photograph of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and “50-Year Mortgage” above a photo of Trump.

The post sparked debate as industry experts and elected officials weighed in on a proposed 50-year loan term to help first-time buyers afford a home.

But would such a proposal actually help or hurt a homebuyer’s financial situation? And how would a 50-year mortgage affect another pain point for homeowners: Taxes?

Read on.

Are 50-year mortgages coming?

When homeowners buy a house, they typically secure a 30-year mortgage. This loan lifecycle follows a process called amortization, where the borrower pays fees and interest first, then slowly pays down the principal balance over time. Ideally, after 30 years, the homeowner owns the house.

By stretching the loan term from 30 to 50 years, the buyer effectively pays less every month for the same principal balance.

Consequently, on the surface, a 50-year mortgage might seem to help a first-time homebuyer afford a home, as shown by Fannie Mae’s mortgage calculator:

• A 30-year mortgage on a $200,000 home with a 5% down payment and 6% interest rate could result in a monthly mortgage payment of $1,512.
• A 50-year mortgage home with the same price and terms as above could lead to a monthly mortgage payment of $1,373.
• Compared to a 30-year term, the proposed 50-year mortgage would result in a monthly payment savings of approximately $139 for the homebuyer.

Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, who reportedly proposed the idea to Trump, called the proposal “a complete game changer,” while sharing Trump’s post on X. Pulte later added that the Trump administration is developing a “WIDE arsenal of solutions” to the housing affordability crisis.

Home affordability has become a recent issue for the Trump administration, as housing prices have skyrocketed more than 50% over the last five years.

And those who can afford a house spend an average of 39% of their income on housing expenses — well over the 30% recommended amount given by financial experts, according to Redfin. Yet some elected officials and industry experts claim the 50-year mortgage proposal could boomerang, leading to significantly higher home costs over time and even threatening future generational wealth.

50-year mortgage Trump proposal

A 50-year mortgage may yield slightly lower monthly payments than a 30-year term. But the total loan cost would be staggering, according to the latest LendingTree analysis using a $500,000 mortgage and a 6.1% interest rate:

• For a 30-year fixed loan, a homebuyer would pay $590,791 in interest over the life of the loan.
• For a 50-year fixed loan, a homebuyer would pay over $1.1 million in interest alone.
• Effectively, the amount of interest you pay on a 30-year vs. a 50-year loan would be more than double, even though your loan only increased by 20 years.

“This is not a good idea,” remarked Richard Green, a professor at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, who told CNN, “The monthly payment savings would be really small. At the same time, you’re putting people at risk, because it takes a really long time for them to start paying down their loan.”

Just days after the proposal, Trump told Fox News in an interview, “It’s not even a big deal,” and “All it means is you pay less per month. You pay it over a longer period of time. It’s not like a big factor.”

Meanwhile, the average age of a new homebuyer has increased to a record-breaking 40 years old, according to the National Association of Realtors.

If the first-time buyer purchases a home at that age, there’s a good chance they could be dead before their 50-year mortgage matures. Future generations could be on the hook for paying the loan, which means less wealth would be passed down to younger generations.

"I don’t like 50 year mortgages as the solution to the housing affordability crisis,” wrote Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on X. “It will ultimately reward the banks, mortgage lenders, and home builders while people pay far more in interest over time and die before they ever pay off their home. In debt forever, in debt for life!"

In the meantime, Opendoor’s CEO, Kaz Nejatian, praised the idea on X. “50 year mortgage is probably the most pro-homeowner government policy of the last two decades.”

50-year mortgage vs. 30-year mortgage: Interest tax deduction

Some may wonder whether the cost of a 50-year mortgage could be offset through tax savings. After all, homeowners may take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) if they itemize their federal returns.

• MID allows you to deduct up to $750,000 on qualifying loans after 2017 (before that date, the limit is $1 million).*
• Interest paid on a proposed 50-year loan would be higher compared to interest paid on a 30-year loan (even though your monthly mortgage payment would be lower).
• Because of this, your annual MID could be potentially higher on a hypothetical 50-year loan compared to a 30-year mortgage.
• However, because the MID is capped at $750,000 for new loans, you might not be able to recoup all your interest paid over the life of the loan (plus you’d have to itemize your federal taxes every year just to claim it instead of the standard deduction).
• And since the average homeowner typically sells their home after 12 years, you likely wouldn’t see a more advantageous tax benefit from the mortgage tax deduction than on a 30-year loan.

And there’s home equity risk, too. The principal is paid down slowly on a 50-year mortgage, which means the homeowner's equity builds at a significantly slower rate. This exposes the homeowner to a greater risk of potential home price declines, or even “negative” equity if the housing market dips.

*Note: The MID limits for married filing separately couples are lower than other filing statuses.

Is a 50-year mortgage a good idea legally?

Before anything else, the Trump administration would need to overcome a legislative hurdle to enact a 50-year mortgage.

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Consumer Protection Act, which was designed (in part) to protect homebuyers after the 2008 housing financial crisis, doesn’t currently embrace 50-year mortgages.

So if a 50-year loan were issued, it would likely be “non-qualified,” meaning it wouldn’t be backed federally. The lack of federal assurance increases lender risk, which would likely increase the interest rate for the buyer.

Yet a policy change might not be off the table.

According to ABC News, a White House official said that the administration is "always exploring new ways to improve housing affordability" and will announce any official policy changes directly.

So stay informed and stay tuned.

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The Census Bureau announced late Friday that it would publish August construction spending data today, as it updates its release calendar in the aftermath of the government shutdown. The agency will provide the release schedule as soon as it becomes available.

And we will update our economic calendar accordingly. Meanwhile, construction spending grew an estimated 0.2% in August, a third straight monthly gain reflecting a rise in residential home improvement spending over the summer even as nonresidential spending trended lower.

"All told," write Wells Fargo economists Charlie Dougherty and Ali Hajibeigi, "the modest upturn in total spending is an encouraging sign that activity might be starting to stabilize," though they note that high interest rates and elevated building costs are still a "significant limitation" on upside from here.

The Census Bureau will follow up on Tuesday with the August factory orders report and on Wednesday with the August trade report. All three releases were due in early October. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the September jobs data will arrive on Thursday.

At Monday's closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 46,590, the broad-based S&P 500 had fallen 0.9% to 6,672, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.8% at 22,708.

GOOGL is a Warren Buffett stock

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -1.1%) bought $4.3 billion worth of Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.1%) during the third quarter, establishing a new position that accounted for 1.6% of its portfolio. This makes the Google parent Berkshire's 10th-largest equity holding as of September 30 – and the newest Warren Buffett stock.

According to CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino, "The move validates [Alphabet's] strong fundamentals and provides Berkshire exposure to a leading AI provider through Google Cloud and Gemini expansion."

Zino, who rates GOOGL a Buy with a 12-month target price of $330, cites the high free cash flow potential of Alphabet's core advertising business and an attractive valuation of about 22 times estimated 2027 earnings per share "amid a healthy top-line growth trajectory" for Berkshire's move.

Alphabet also announced a $40 billion investment in new AI-focused data centers and supporting infrastructure in Texas through 2027.

More Warren Buffett stocks

With the Oracle of Omaha retiring, their second-to-last 13-F filing as an active couple reveals Buffett and Berkshire also sold $10.6 billion worth of Apple (AAPL, -1.8%) stock. They've sold down their Apple position from approximately 900 million shares at the end of 2023 to 238 million as of September 30.

AAPL remains Berkshire's largest holding at 22.7% of its portfolio. And Zino says the move merely reflects portfolio rebalancing ongoing for two years.

In addition to GOOGL, Berkshire bought $1.2 billion of Chubb (CB, +0.04%) stock, which now accounts for 3.3% of the holding company's portfolio.

American Express (AXP, -4.5%) was not one of the stocks Buffett bought and sold in Q3, and it remains the holding company's second-largest equity position at 18.8%. But AXP was at the bottom of the 30 Dow Jones stocks today.

Berkshire also maintained its position in troubled health care stock UnitedHealth Group (UNH, -0.4%) that it initiated in the second quarter. UNH was 0.65% of Berkshire's portfolio at the end of Q3.

Berkshire sold $1.9 billion worth of financial stock Bank of America (BAC, -2.1%), which represented about 11% of the portfolio, though it is still the No. 3 holding. It also sold $1.2 billion worth of VeriSign (VRSN, -1.1%).

All about Nvidia and the earnings calendar

Economic data is incoming again. But it's all about the earnings calendar and Nvidia (NVDA, -1.9%) this week. Come what may, you can track it all on our live Nvidia earnings blog.

"The key to a turnaround in the situation," says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "will be Nvidia's earnings this Wednesday. A positive surprise by NVDA and a recovery to new highs there, now down 12% from its all-time high, would re-energize the entire market."

Navellier notes that major investors such as Softbank and Peter Thiel have sold their entire NVDA positions and have "put a chill on the shares." He also cites "concerns about the circular financing agreements among the builders of the massive data center buildouts, which are the big buyers of Nvidia chips."

But, if CEO Jensen Huang and his company report "strong beats and, more importantly, strong guidance, these concerns will be mitigated and the AI theme will be reaffirmed, leading the market higher."

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Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings report after the November 19 close. Nvidia earnings have become one of Wall Street's most anticipated events thanks to snowballing demand for all things artificial intelligence (AI).

The leader of the AI revolution reported earnings of $1.30 per share (+60.5% year over year) on revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). Gross margin was 73.6% vs 75.0% a year ago.

Jensen Huang's outfit expects to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, "plus or minus 2%," and gross margin of 75%, "plus or minus 50 basis points."

Analysts were calling for earnings of $1.25 per share on revenue of $54.9 billion.

"A great earnings report with higher guidance from Nvidia really shouldn't surprise anyone, but it may reinforce concerns over seemingly limitless AI capital budgets," says Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial.

Follmer adds that several hyperscalers have already announced increased capital expenditures, so it will likely be another strong quarter for Nvidia. "And more importantly, we should expect the bigger hyperscaler spending to be reinforced by Nvidia raising future expectations for sales and earnings, given they are the chip of choice for such projects."

The Kiplinger team reported live on Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio. Scroll for the latest updates.

Worried About an AI Bubble? Here's What You Need to Know | Amid Mounting Uncertainty: Five Forecasts About AI | If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today

Nvidia stock opens lower to start earnings week

Nvidia stock opened lower Monday morning, down 0.9% at last check. The chip stock is down more than 7% for the month to date, but has still gained nearly 42% since the start of the year.

This comes as the broader equities market trades cautiously higher at the start of the week, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, the broader S&P 500 0.1% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite enjoying a 0.2% lead.

- Karee Venema

Can Nvidia earnings reignite the AI flame?

That's the question Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is asking.

"For the first time in several quarters, Nvidia enters earnings with sentiment under pressure. Shares have softened on concerns of an AI bubble and the reality that China sales are unlikely to rebound soon."

However, Britzman says the overarching picture for Nvidia "remains strong" and he believes third-quarter revenue will come in near the top end of guidance, "at around $55 billion – and scope for an upside surprise."

He believes market participants will be watching fourth-quarter guidance and any color for the year ahead.

"CEO Jensen Huang recently flagged $500 billion worth of orders on the books, and investors will be keen for clarity on timing, which could imply material upside to current forecasts. With plenty of nervousness in the air, strong results from Nvidia could be the perfect catalyst to reignite the AI flame," says Britzman.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia earnings: Harbinger of an AI bubble or proof the boom is real?

Ahead of Nvidia's earnings this week, Wall Street is worried that there's an AI bubble. In recent weeks, the sector has suffered from a spike in volatility.

According to Neil Azous, portfolio manager of Strategy Shares' Monopoly ETF (MPLY), the concerns may be overblown.

"For those worried about 'bubble' talk, the stock is already down heading into earnings, and historically every dip in Nvidia has proven profitable. The asymmetry — one day or seven days after earnings — has favored the upside. Betting against the most important company in the world, with the resources it has, has generally been a losing trade. Taken together, these factors could alleviate many current concerns," says Azous.

Brian Stutland, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund and the Catalyst Nasdaq-100 Hedged Equity Fund, agrees.

"The key is whether Nvidia continues hitting the targets analysts expect. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 31, which isn't extreme. This isn't like the late-'90s tech bubble, when major players traded at forward P/Es of 40 or 45," says Stutland.

He adds that Nvidia's valuation is reasonable and the company's growth helps justify it. "I'm not convinced we're at the tail end of a bubble. It would likely take a major catalyst to push the market significantly higher than expected, followed by a shakeout. As long as Nvidia delivers clarity through earnings and meets its growth targets, the higher multiples are justified, though there will still be volatility along the way."

Regardless, Nvidia is the clear bellwether. And even if there are a few small cracks in its growth story, it seems likely that the talk about the AI bubble will not go away.

- Tom Taulli

What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its fiscal third-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, November 19. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

Firstrade's Stephen Callahan: What investors will be watching in Nvidia's earnings

Nvidia reports earnings on November 19, and Wall Street is looking for a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue to $54.9 billion and earnings of $1.25 per share (+19% from Q2).

According to Stephen Callahan, trading behavior analyst at Firstrade Securities, those numbers look about right. "While many expect the chipmaker to beat these estimates, I agree with these numbers," he says.

Nvidia's Blackwell chips are likely to see strong demand, especially with the growth in spending on AI infrastructure for data centers. "Long-term contracts with big clients have given the chipmaker a predictable revenue pipeline," Callahan notes.

But risks remain. "The tense trade relations between the U.S. and China pose potential land mines for the company," the analyst warns. "These include stricter regulations that could affect sales."

And the growing chatter about an AI bubble could weigh on Nvidia stock.

As for what investors will watch most closely? "Strong revenue growth from the data center sector" tops the list, along with guidance on future demand, China sales, profit margins and supply chain stability.

- Tom Taulli

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.

Based on the chipmaker's current stock price, this works out to a dividend yield of 0.02%. By comparison, the S&P 500's current dividend yield is 1.2%.

In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.

- Karee Venema

Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

Hedge funds bought Nvidia stock in Q3

Nvidia shares outperformed the broader market in Q3, gaining 18.1% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500's 8.1% total return.

During this July 1 through September 30 time frame, hedge funds were were net buyers of Nvidia stock.

According to WhaleWisdom, 48 hedge funds initiated new NVDA positions over the three-month period and 316 increased their stakes. This compares to 33 hedge funds that closed out of their Nvidia stakes entirely and 342 that reduced their positions.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to 4.6 million shares.

Related: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

Peter Thiel's hedge fund sells Nvidia

As a group, hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia in Q3, but one notable fund sold its stake in the chipmaker.

Thiel Macro, which is the namesake fund of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) board chair Peter Thiel, exited its stake in Nvidia in the third quarter. The fund first bought NVDA in Q4 2024 and the AI stock accounted for 40% of the portfolio at the end of Q2.

Regulatory filings reveal that Peter Thiel's hedge fund also sold off its entire stake in Vistra (VST), which provides energy for AI data centers, and slashed its stake in Tesla (TSLA) by 76%.

- Karee Venema

BofA Securities raises EPS estimates ahead of Nvidia's earnings report

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya raised his full-year earnings-per-share estimates for Nvidia ahead of the chipmaker's upcoming earnings report.

For fiscal year 2026, Arya now expects the company to report earnings of $4.56 per share, up from his previous estimate of $4.45 per share. He also increased his EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 (to $7.02 from $6.26) and fiscal 2028 (to $9.15 from $8.03).

The analyst reiterated his Buy rating and $275 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 50% to current levels.

"NVDA is the only merchant chip supplier with proven full-stack, rack-scale execution in large AI clusters, first with Blackwell (GB200), then with Blackwell Ultra (GB300) and next year in Vera Rubin (VR)," we'll likely have three generations of experience by the second half of calendar year 2026, says Arya.

He adds that cloud capex worries are often seasonal in nature – peaking in Q4 but easing at the start of the new year. And Nvidia is trading at an attractive valuation given its AI bellwether status and growth estimates.

Indeed, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last month that the company has roughly $500 billion in total Blackwell and Rubin orders for this year and next – beating Wall Street's expectations by 10% to 15% – so most concerns will be more macro in nature, focusing on a tougher financing environment and increased competition.

- Karee Venema

Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel unload Nvidia stock

Ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report, some of the world's top tech investors have unloaded their positions in the stock. SoftBank, which Masayoshi Son operates, recently sold its remaining 32 million-share stake, netting $5.8 billion.

Then, as mentioned, there is Peter Thiel, who is the cofounder of PayPal and an early investor in Facebook. His hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, unloaded its position in Nvidia stock for about $100 million.

Granted, in light of the company’s massive market cap, these transactions are relatively small. Besides, Son has had a spotty track record with Nvidia stock. In 2019, he sold a $3.9 billion position. Had he held on, that stake would currently be worth about $150 billion.

Regardless, Son has become a billionaire because of his savvy, high-conviction investments. His move away from Nvidia may not signal bearishness on AI at all — but rather his belief that even bigger opportunities now exist within the category.

- Tom Taulli

The stock market closes lower to start Nvidia week

Stocks opened lower and recovered briefly but slid through the afternoon to begin a big week on the earnings front.

At Monday's closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 46,590, the broad-based S&P 500 had fallen 0.9% to 6,672, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.8% at 22,708.

Nvidia, meanwhile, shed 1.9%.

"The key to a turnaround in the situation," says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "will be Nvidia's earnings this Wednesday. A positive surprise by NVDA and a recovery to new highs there, now down 12% from its all-time high, would re-energize the entire market."

Navellier notes that major investors such as Softbank and Peter Thiel have sold their entire NVDA positions and have "put a chill on the shares." He also cites "concerns about the circular financing agreements among the builders of the massive data center buildouts, which are the big buyers of Nvidia chips."

But, if CEO Jensen Huang and his company report "strong beats and, more importantly, strong guidance, these concerns will be mitigated and the AI theme will be reaffirmed, leading the market higher."

- David Dittman

Read more: Dow Falls 557 Points to Start NVDA Week: Stock Market Today

Nvidia weakness creates a "lower bar" for the chip stock to overcome, says Main Street Research CIO

Nvidia stock is poised for a lower open Tuesday, with shares down 0.9% at last check. NVDA has pulled back in recent weeks amid broader risk-off trading on Wall Street and concerns that the AI trade has run too far, too fast.

But James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research, says this "brief reset ... means the stock now has a slightly lower bar to clear post-earnings." Demmert expects "Nvidia to exceed estimates and provide future earnings and revenue guidance that is higher than investors expect."

He adds that it is "unlikely that Nvidia has seen any slowdown in demand for its products, even with increased competition, given how early we are in the AI cycle."

As for concerns over a potential AI bubble, the CIO reminds us that "all technology revolutions create bubble-like stock price performance," and excitement over all things artificial intelligence is currently expanding at a healthy pace.

While valuations are indeed lofty, Demmert says they're still trading at a discount to earnings growth rates, while sentiment has not yet reached the euphoric stage that signals a market top.

- Karee Venema

September jobs report release makes for a busy week on Wall Street

It's not only Nvidia earnings that Wall Street is waiting for this week. The highly anticipated September jobs report, whose release was delayed due to the record-long government shutdown, will be published ahead of Thursday's open.

Data released over the summer showed a concerning slowdown in the labor market, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at both its September and October meetings.

But expectations of a third straight rate cut at the next Fed meeting in December have declined in recent weeks amid a lack of concrete economic data.

"As of now, the odds of a rate cut in December have dropped to 45% after some caution and hawkish remarks from Fed officials," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "The jobs data could skew this pricing if it confirms a further softening of the labor market, which would play into the narrative of a weakening U.S. economy, a key theme that has emerged in recent days and is driving some of the weakness in equities."

- Karee Venema

Related: When Is the Next Jobs Report?

Cloudflare outage resolved after temporary disruptions to ChatGPT, X and others

Cloudflare (NET) stock is tumbling today, down 3.5% at last check, after a major outage in the cloud services provider took down sections of the internet, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, X and DoorDash (DASH).

The issue has since been resolved, with Cloudflare noting that "the root cause of the outage was a configuration file that is automatically generated to manage threat traffic. The file grew beyond an expected size of entries and triggered a crash in the software system that handles traffic for a number of Cloudflare's services."

The company underscored that "there is no evidence that this was the result of an attack or caused by malicious activity."

On Monday, Cloudflare announced that it is buying Replicate, an AI platform used by developers to run artificial intelligence models. William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho says the acquisition will help NET advance "its vision of its Workers platform becoming a one-stop-shop for developers to build and run AI-powered applications by integrating Replicate and allowing users to easily deploy any AI model globally with just a single line of code."

Ho has an Outperform (Buy) rating on the tech stock, saying "investors should continue to own Cloudflare based on the potential for the company to execute near term as well as the central role it could play in the rapid shift toward an AI-centric internet."

- Karee Venema

AI bubble warnings grow louder ahead of Nvidia earnings

"No firm is immune if the AI bubble bursts." This is the warning from Alphabet (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai, who told the BBC that the AI surge is "extraordinary," but shows "elements of irrationality."

He's not the only one raising concerns. Just look at Palantir Technologies (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp. While Karp says the market for AI is massive, he recently cautioned that the economic output may not match the cost of the infrastructure build out.

And then there's Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame. His recent warning suggests the Nasdaq-100 may have already peaked amid the AI spending boom, with Burry saying that "someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money."

With multiple heavyweights raising red flags, Nvidia's earnings this week won't just measure performance — they may gauge how much longer the AI boom can defy gravity.

- Tom Taulli

What would you have if you invested $1,000 in Nvidia 20 years ago?

Nvidia's share price has gone through some notable ups and downs over its 26 years as a publicly traded company, but its long-term trend has always been up and to the right.

Indeed, Nvidia has been one of the best stocks to own over that time frame and created more than $309 billion in shareholder value between January 1999 and December 2020, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Over the past two decades, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 38.5%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 10.9% over the same period.

In dollar terms, a $1,000 investment in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth roughly $673,400 today. That same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $7,900.

Microsoft, Nvidia and Anthropic go all in

On November 18, Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia and Anthropic announced a massive strategic partnership. According to Microsoft's blog, Nvidia and Microsoft will invest up to $10 billion and $5 billion, respectively, in Anthropic.

At the same time, Anthropic committed to purchasing up to one gigawatt of compute capacity on Nvidia's future hardware, optimizing its models with the chipmaker, while scaling deployment across Microsoft Azure.

A report in The Wall Street Journal estimates that the total commitment from the artificial intelligence leaders is about $45 billion, making it one of the largest AI infrastructure deals ever.

This partnership signals more than just investment. It represents a deep intertwining of models, hardware and cloud infrastructure. For Microsoft, it means broadening its model ecosystem beyond one provider. For Nvidia, it means locking in demand for its next-gen chips. And for Anthropic, it means scale, capacity and market access.

Yet the timing — just ahead of Nvidia's earnings release — makes this a high-stakes moment for the entire AI sector. The question now: Can these billions translate into meaningful business outcomes, or will expectations outpace reality?

- Tom Taulli

What should you do with all that appreciated NVDA stock?

Even with its recent pullback, Nvidia stock is still up 40% for the year to date. And that's modest compared to its longer-term returns. Indeed, NVDA has generated an average annual return of almost 54% over the past 15 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500's 14.4% total return (price change plus dividends).

So what's an investor to do with all of their appreciated Nvidia stock? We turned to Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, chief investment officer and Kiplinger contributor, for advice.

One option is to take the money and run. "Having a disproportionate share of your portfolio in any single stock — even one as incredibly successful as Nvidia — is risky," says Sizemore. "Selling or at least trimming the position little by little could be smart risk management."

But selling isn't the only route you could take. In this article, Sizemore shares a few other potential scenarios for Nvidia investors who have capitalized on the stock's impressive run.

Read more: I'm 55 With 10 Years Until Retirement, and I've Made $2 Million on Nvidia Stock. What Do I Do with It Now?

Stifel raises its price target on Nvidia ahead of earnings

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $250 from $212 ahead of earnings, representing implied upside of nearly 38% to its November 18 close.

"CEO Jensen Huang's recent keynote at GTC Washington D.C., outlined the company's ongoing positioning as the backbone of AI infrastructure underpinned by more than $500 billion in cumulative order book for Blackwell and Rubin infrastructure spanning 2025-2026," Roy says.

The analyst expects near-term debate to remain focused on the sustainability of AI investments, even with several hyperscalers announcing increased spending in their recent earnings reports.

"We believe that concerns regarding vendor financing loops, financial sustainability of several key AI players, and recent supply side issues have increased as well," Roy adds, though he notes that recent conversations and industry data points "suggest that AI compute demand is likely to scale higher."

And the analyst continues to believe Nvidia is best-positioned to benefit from this rising demand.

- Karee Venema

NVDA rises again in pre-market trading

Nvidia (NVDA) was down 2.8% on Tuesday to $181.36, extending its decline since hitting a new all-time high of $212.19 intraday on October 29 to 14.5%. The AI bellwether was rising again Wednesday morning in pre-market trading, ahead of its post-closing bell earnings announcement.

NVDA stock was up 1.7% about 15 minutes before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange – helped, perhaps, by another effusive note from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Calling it a "foundational piece" of the AI revolution, Ives expects Nvidia to "handily exceed Street estimates given the plethora of positive data points we have picked up from our Asia supply chain checks." Ives also cites "monster Big Tech cap-ex numbers seen by the hyperscalers in late October earnings."

Wall Street expects earnings of $1.23 per share (+51.9% year over year) on revenue of $54.59 billion (+55.6% YoY). The consensus would also like to see fourth-quarter guidance for EPS of $1.37 on revenue of $59.60 billion.

"At a time with tech stocks volatile and investor worries around an 'AI Bubble'," Ives notes, "it all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story which starts and ends with Nvidia."

The analyst says we'll "be able to hear a pin drop on Street trading desks as the entire global market will be carefully watching these results and commentary" from the "Godfather of AI," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, after the closing bell.

Ives has an Outperform, or Buy, rating on NVDA stock, with a $210 12-month target price.

– David Dittman

Gabelli PM: Why Nvidia's earnings could steer the entire market

With Nvidia set to report earnings later today, investor attention is sharper than ever — and for good reason.

As John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, notes, "Nvidia is the world's most valuable company and the largest constituent in the S&P 500, and its earnings are always closely followed by investors." He adds that this cycle carries even more weight given "the drawdown in U.S. stocks seen over the last few weeks."

Belton says Nvidia's results will offer a critical read on the health of AI spending: "Nvidia's earnings should provide an updated view of the demand environment for AI infrastructure, which we believe remains robust, supported by a broadening set of customers using the technology across a growing number of applications."

Looking beyond the quarter, Belton remains constructive on the broader tech landscape. "We think there is still runway for these companies to generate strong earnings growth over the coming years as AI adoption scales and use cases proliferate."

Nvidia's leadership remains key. The company "is the dominant player in AI semiconductors with a strong competitive position which looks defensible," Belton adds.

On valuations, he pushes back against bubble concerns: "The 'Magnificent 7' median forward P/E multiple has contracted roughly 10% … it is difficult to argue that we are in a valuation bubble currently."

- Tom Taulli

Big Tech, ROIC and NVDA

Jason Zweig writes a column for The Wall Street Journal called "The Intelligent Investor." He holds prime real estate at one of the world's premier financial publications.

His work is an homage to Charles Dow, who co-founded the WSJ and created the first stock market index, Benjamin Graham, who wrote the seminal book that lends his column its name, and Warren Buffett, Graham's most famous protege.

When Jason Zweig is writing about return on invested capital (ROIC) and Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), as he did in his weekly newsletter on Tuesday, people are going to pay attention.

Zweig cites reporting in the WSJ by his colleagues Matt Wirz and Peter Rudegair: "Big tech companies are expected to spend nearly $3 trillion on AI through 2028 but only generate enough cash to cover half that tab."

And he adds his own color: "Between Sept. 1 and Nov. 13 – less than three months – big tech companies issued more bonds than they had in the previous three calendar years combined."

The problem, as Zweig sees it, is this: "Historically, software has been a 'capital-light' business whose own cash flows could finance most needs. Suddenly, however, the tech giants are becoming capital heavy."

Here's the bottom line: "What all this means is that AI had better turn out to be even more lucrative than the tech giants are projecting. Otherwise, these companies and their investors are going to be saddled with excess capital – and unsustainable valuations."

Investors, traders and speculators alike hope many questions about an AI bubble will be answered by Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang after the closing bell.

– David Dittman

A quick correction

Writing with half an eye on big retail names joining Nvidia (NVDA) on the earnings calendar this week as well as the next Fed meeting in December, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says, "The market correction appears to be over."

He adds, of course, "Nvidia's earnings tonight are pivotal."

Navellier notes that Lowe's (LOW) was up 5% after meeting revenue expectations and beating earnings forecasts but trimming its full-year profit forecast because of economic uncertainty.

"Interest rates remain flat," Navellier writes, adding that a rate cut by the Fed next month "will be bullish for stocks and would be very helpful for a year-end rally." He cautions that a 50-basis-point cut may generate recession fears.

"Nvidia is key because all the massive data center plans are wrapped around Nvidia chips," Navellier explains, "and the company has financial agreements with many of the AI players."

"A bullish report and forecast will invigorate Mega Tech, which very much steers the indexes, and index moves are what create the majority of buying and selling." NVDA stock was up 1.6% at last check.

– David Dittman

Jensen & Elon's Excellent Adventures

According to Reuters, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang and Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will discuss advances in AI and technology generally during a U.S.-Saudi Arabia investment forum in Washington on Wednesday.

"This conversation will explore the emerging forces shaping the next wave of technological progress," reads a document cited by Reuters, "highlighting the architectures, models, and investments powering a more intelligent and interconnected future."

CEOs from Adobe (ADBE), Chevron (CVX), Cisco Systems (CSCO), General Dynamics (GD), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Pfizer (PFE) and Qualcomm (QCOM) as well as Saudi Aramco are attending the meeting too.

Senior executives from Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Blackstone Group (BX), Boeing (BA), Haliburton (HAL), International Business Machines (IBM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Parsons Group (PSN), Salesforce (CRM), State Street (STT) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) as well as Andreesen Horowitz and Saudi Group will also attend the event at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

NVDA stock was up 1.8% with a little more than an hour remaining in Wednesday's regular trading session. TSLA was down 0.1%.

– David Dittman

NVDA stock rallies into the close

Nvidia (NVDA) traded up as much as 3.6% before noon, sank some but stabilized around midday, and rallied into the close to post a 2.9% gain ahead of its fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings announcement and CEO Jensen Huang's press conference.

In October, Huang said the leader of the AI revolution has $500 billion in calendar 2025 and 2026 orders for its Blackwell graphics processing unit and its Rubin GPU as well as related AI infrastructure equipment. NVDA stock hit a new 52-week high the next day, October 29. It's down 12.1% from there.

Analysts will be looking for tangible follow-through from the "Godfather of AI," as Dan Ives of Wedbush has dubbed Huang. “This is how much business is on the books: Half a trillion dollars worth so far,” Huang said at Nvidia's GTC conference in Washington.

Nvidia typically posts its quarterly earnings press releases around 4:20 pm ET. And the CEO's press conference usually gets going right around 5 pm.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's FY26 Q3 earnings and guidance are in

Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the AI revolution, reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings of $1.30 per share (+60.5% year over year) on revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). Gross margin was 73.6% vs 75.0% a year ago.

Jensen Huang's outfit expects to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, "plus or minus 2%," and gross margin of 75%, "plus or minus 50 basis points."

"Data Center revenue for the third quarter was a record $51.2 billion, up 66% from a year ago and up 25% sequentially, driven by three platform shifts - accelerated computing, powerful AI models, and agentic applications," CFO Colette Kress said in her quarterly commentary. "Blackwell Ultra is now our leading architecture across all customer categories while our prior Blackwell architecture saw continued strong demand."

Wall Street forecast EPS of $1.23 (+51.9% YoY) on revenue of $54.59 billion (+55.6% YoY). The consensus hoped to see fourth-quarter ;revenue guidance of $59.60 billion.

NVDA stock was up nearly 4% in after-market trading following the release.

– David Dittman

Nvidia is "going in style"

“Nvidia (NVDA) bears the weight of the world," observes Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman in the first commentary I've seen since the widely watched earnings and guidance release, "but like Atlas, it’s standing firm under that towering mountain of expectations. Third quarter results delivered the goods and then some.

The analyst notes a 4% beat on the top and bottom lines along with "a side of more good news in the form of a monster $65 billion revenue guide for the fourth quarter."

"While AI valuations are dominating the news feeds," Britzman writes, "Nvidia is going about its business in style." He cites a massive backlog of orders as well as its underrated breadth, including a full data center business offering chips, software, networking and other AI infrastructure.

"Even if rivals can offer parts of the stack," Britzman concludes, "Nvidia’s fully integrated solution will be hard to beat.”

– David Dittman

CFO Kress: It's "early innings" for Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) continued to climb as CFO Collette Kress explained how the chipmaker's position in the scaling process ensures its continued growth and confirmed the leader of the AI revolution has "visibility to half a trillion dollars" in sales of its equipment through the end of calendar 2026.

"We're still in the early innings of our work," Kress said, adding that Nvidia will remain the "superior choice" for the $3 trillion to $4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spend through the end of the decade.

"Demand continues to exceed our expectations," the CFO said.

NVDA was up more than 6% about 10 minutes into Kress's prepared remarks.

– David Dittman

More notes from the Nvidia CFO

In addition to confirming CEO Jensen Huang's $500 billion forward orders assertions, CFO Collette Kress underscored the importance of U.S. government support for the AI revolution.

The CFO noted intense competition from China.

Kress also emphasized that production for Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI GPU is ramping on schedule.

In addition to a recently announced collaboration with Anthropic, Nvidia is now considering an opportunity to invest in OpenAI.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's US expansion will continue

Nvidia (NVDA) CFO Collette Kress said the company will continue to invest strategically following its recent deal with Anthropic and amid discussions with OpenAI, emphasizing the importance of cash flow discipline.

Kress also said that Nvidia's expansion of U.S.-based production capacity will continue.

The CFO cited physical AI as the driver of the next leg of growth for Nvidia, and she also underscored its commitment to building resiliency and redundancy in its global supply chain.

That includes building its presence in the U.S. over the next four years.

– David Dittman

About this AI bubble

"There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said at the top of his prepared remarks for the chipmaker's conference call.

"We see something very different."

Huang identified three massive platform shifts underway, noting that Nvidia is addressing all three transitions "for the first time since the advent of Moore's Law."

This change is revolutionary, Huang explains, and Nvidia excels at every level of it, including pre- and post-training as well as inference.

"AI has reached a tipping point."

– David Dittman

About that $500 billion

"Yes, that's correct, we are working into our $500 billion forecast," CFO Collette Kress said in response to the first question during today's Nvidia (NVDA) fiscal 2026 third-quarter conference call.

"The number will grow," Kress added, noting that Nvidia shipped $50 billion this quarter. "We will probably be taking more orders."

– David Dittman

Nvidia will be efficient

"The world doesn't have an excess of anything to squander," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said during a response to a question during the company's fiscal 2026 third-quarter conference call.

"Energy efficiency is going to be extraordinary as we continue to grow," he said. "Nvidia GPU computing is the best way to do so."

Huang says Nvidia's hardware will also help drive revenue growth over time because of its efficiency.

Hundreds of billions of capex will be cash-flow generative, he explained, because new applications are the fastest-growing in history.

"Once people see what's happening under the surface" and engage beyond hyperscalers they'll appreciate what's happening.

– David Dittman

Nvidia seeks "extraordinary" returns

"We've secured a really resilient supply chain, and we have the balance sheet" to support its clients, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said in response to a question about future investment plans.

Huang said Nvidia will continue to use cash flow to support investments to expand the ecosystem and catalyze growth for partners and developers.

"They're all driving consumption, with a huge step-up in quality from a year ago," Huang said. Rather than give up a share in his company, the CEO likes to get a share of those companies and potential "extraordinary" returns.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's platform is the singular platform

"We run them all," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said about the AI platforms proliferating across sectors, industries and geographies.

And, he adds, "We are expanding the reach of our ecosystem" with its investments, with an eye on exponential growth.

– David Dittman

It ain't easy, even for Nvidia… especially for Nvidia

"When you're growing at the rate and the scale we are, how can anything be easy?" wondered Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang near the end of the company's quarterly conference call.

"We created a whole new industry."

Huang explained that Nvidia continues to solve its tractable supply-chain problems, with a lot of partners and a lot of routes to market.

And its architecture will drive the most revenues on an efficient, per-Watt basis.

"All the things that I've been telling you over the years are becoming evident," he said.

– David Dittman

'All of that has worked out well for us'

CFO Collette Kress confirmed Nvidia (NVDA) will hold gross margins in the mid-70s, noting that the chipmaker is "making sure we are innovating with our engineering and our business teams to create more architecture for this marketplace."

"Spot on," CEO Jensen Huang said of Kress's response. "We forecast, we plan, we negotiate with our supply chain well in advance," The CEO explained. "Our supply chain has known for quite a long time our requirements."

Huang added that Nvidia's suppliers have been "working with us" during a recent demand surge. "All of that has worked out well for us," he said. "There just aren't that many teams that are this skilled at building these incredibly complex things."

The Nvidia CEO cited five things that separate his company from other AI infrastructure providers. First, Nvidia can accelerate every phase of the ongoing computing transition.

And i's excellent at every phase of AI: pre-training, post-training and inference, which is "really, really hard."

Also, it's the only architecture that runs every frontier AI model: open source, science, biology, robotics… "We run everything, for every major platform," Huan said.

"We're in every cloud," he added as a fourth factor. "We're literally everywhere, every computer. One architecture, and it works."

Finally, he said, "Our offtake is so diverse," emphasizing that the versatility of its architecture is supported by the size of its ecosystem.

NVDA stock was higher by 5% in after-market trading at the conclusion of Huang's remarks.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's latest earnings signal the start of AI's "second wave": enterprise adoption

Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday delivered more than another headline beat. It was a signal of how the AI market is entering the second wave.

For the past two years, hyperscalers and model labs have driven the bulk of GPU demand. This was about building the infrastructure to power the explosive growth of generative AI. But this quarter's guidance suggests something different is happening: enterprises are finally moving from pilot experiments to real deployment.

As CFO Colette Kress put it, "enterprises broadly are leveraging AI to boost productivity, increase efficiency and reduce cost." She cited examples from RBC, Lowe's, Unilever, and Salesforce's engineering team using Cursor.

Nvidia is now seeing demand "across every industry," not just from cloud providers and model builders. Jensen Huang doubled down on the message, calling AI "a brand-new category" that is transforming existing business models and powering agentic applications in health care, legal, supply chain, marketing and more.

Importantly, Nvidia said it has visibility into $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2026. This is an astonishing figure that reflects both hyperscaler builds and a rising wave of enterprise AI factories.

If the first wave of AI was about building foundational compute, the second wave is about companies operationalizing it. Nvidia's guidance — and its customer examples — suggest that wave has now begun.

- Tom Taulli

To help you understand what is going on in the economy, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we publish many (but not all) of our forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...

Now that the federal tax credit has expired, what is the outlook for electric vehicles in the U.S.? Sales surged as buyers rushed to cash in on the credit before it expired on September 30, then crashed. Here’s how we see the EV market in the longer term.

Once a novelty, EVs are here to stay. But they will occupy a much smaller share of the market in the coming months and beyond, now that the $7,500 federal tax credit is no more. (Note that some states offer tax credits of their own.) Early this year, before talk of Congress axing the credit influenced buyers, EVs accounted for 7.9% of car sales. For the time being, we see that level dropping to 5-6% or so, as demand finds its natural, unsubsidized level.

Surveys show many consumers are interested in electric cars, even if they’re not ready to buy one. Manufacturers will keep building them, but in reduced numbers. Some existing EVs are already getting canceled, along with future models that automakers are now rethinking. Vehicle lineups that were supposed to transition to mostly or all EV in a few years now appear likely to stay mostly gas.

The good news for EV-curious consumers: There will be cheap used models hitting the market in the next few years. EV leasing soared after the Biden era made it easier to qualify for the federal tax credit that way. That flood of used vehicles will be returning to the market, giving value-minded shoppers lots of potential deals.

Cheaper, low-mileage used EVs may be the ticket to convincing wary buyers to consider going electric, now that demand from early adopters has been satisfied. Many drivers won’t be lured, either because an EV doesn’t meet their specific needs or a simple preference for gas. But a decent number of folks appear to be on the fence and may try a used electric model, if the financial math pencils out.

That being said, assuring potential buyers that used EVs’ batteries are sound will be key. Replacing EV batteries costs thousands, even tens of thousands, of dollars. Automakers and dealers will tout new “state of health” certifications showing the useful capacity an EV battery has. They may be rolled into automakers’ certified pre-owned programs, which inspect and vouch for quality used cars, and come with an extended warranty.

More public charging stations will also help, eventually. As of August, the U.S. had 229,000 public charging ports, though they tend to cluster around urban areas, vary in charging capacity and can be prone to failure. More and faster ones are needed. For now, EVs’ lost market share will likely be gobbled up by hybrid models. Consumers are really warming up to them as a compromise that keeps the familiarity and advantages of gas, with fuel efficiency boosted by batteries and electric motors. They’ll likely account for 15% of new car sales soon as more models come as hybrids.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Though Thanksgiving launches Black Friday and holiday shopping, an increasing number of stores are closing for the holiday and opening up on Friday, instead.

Whether you need a key ingredient for Thanksgiving dinner or want to start holiday shopping early, be sure to verify which stores are open on Thanksgiving before heading out.

Major grocery chains open with reduced hours

Many major grocery store chains still operate on the holiday, but with truncated hours. It’s common for stores to close early so their staff can enjoy Thanksgiving with their families, so if you need groceries, shop earlier in the day.

Large chains like Albertsons, Wegmans and Food Lion are open on Thanksgiving, but for retailers like Whole Foods, whether or not stores are open varies depending on location. To be safe, check your local store locator for information on your local store’s Thanksgiving hours.

Some retailers, like Sam’s Club and Target, have already shared that they’ll be closed on Thanksgiving Day, so you’ll need to hold off until Black Friday for any shopping.

Grocery stores that will be open on Thanksgiving:

• Albertsons
• ACME Markets
• Food Lion
• Giant Food
• Kroger: Varies by location
• Meijer
• Ralphs
• Safeway
• Starbucks: Varies by location
• Wegmans
• Whole Foods Market: 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. locally, with exceptions for locations in Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island

These grocery stores will be closed on Thanksgiving:

• Aldi
• BJs Wholesale
• Costco
• Publix
• Sam's Club
• Target
• Trader Joes
• Walmart
• Winn-Dixie

Where to go for fast, convenient essentials on Thanksgiving

If you forgot a key ingredient for your pie or need last-minute essentials like napkins or candles, certain retailers still have generous store hours on Thanksgiving.

Once again, some of these hours will vary by location, so check your local store’s website or give them a call before heading out.

These convenience stores will be open on Thanksgiving:

• Big Lots: 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.
• CVS: Varies by location
• Dollar General: 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.
• Family Dollar: 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.

These convenience stores will be closed on Thanksgiving:

• Walgreens

Big-box & department stores lean toward closed or later opening

Most big-box and department stores will be closed on Thanksgiving. That includes retail giants like Walmart and Target. Though these retailers offer major Black Friday sales, most stores won’t be opening their doors until Friday.

These big box stores will be open on Thanksgiving:

• Bass Pro Shops: 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.
• Cabela’s: 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.

These big box stores will be closed on Thanksgiving:

• Best Buy
• CVS
• Home Depot
• IKEA
• JCPenney
• Kohl’s
• Lowe’s
• Nordstrom
• REI
• Sephora
• Target
• Ulta
• Walmart

Check local hours and exceptions before you go

Retailer hours and Thanksgiving Day policies vary by location, so don’t assume that your local store will have the same hours that the national chain might advertise.

In some cases, “open” may mean “open for reduced hours,” and stores may open later and close earlier than normal on the holiday. In some situations, certain sections of the store, like the pharmacy or deli, may be closed. To be safe, take the time to verify the store hours before you travel.

Shopping on Thanksgiving can be tricky, so if possible, try to get everything you need ahead of time, and realize that some grocery stores may close early the night before Thanksgiving to give their staff more time to enjoy the holiday.

If you can’t wait to get started on Black Friday shopping, consider shopping online. Retailers like Walmart and Target offer competitive Black Friday sales that start online on Thanksgiving, saving you a trip to the store the next day.

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Nvidia (NVDA) is arguably the most important of the 30 Dow Jones stocks. But Goldman Sachs (GS) has the biggest dollar figure attached to its ticker, so the financial stock accounts for more in the price-weighted index.

And GS was down 1.8% to $790.76 today. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was another heavyweight pulling on the Dow, with the health care stock shedding 3.2% to $321.80.

NVDA, meanwhile, was up 1.8% and rallied as much as 5.8% off its intraday low. The leader of the AI revolution will report fiscal 2026 third-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, the highlight of next week's earnings calendar.

Walmart (WMT, -0.05%), both the biggest retailer and the biggest private employer in the world, will also report earnings next week.

As much as Nvidia's event will excite investors, traders and speculators – and give clues as to whether we're in an AI bubble – markets will value Walmart's perspective on the broader economy amid uncertainty exacerbated by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

"It appears that the current correction has largely played out," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "but we are still left with the weakest November so far since 2008."

Navellier concludes that if Nvidia "gives a good report next week and the Fed actually cuts in December, we still have a solid shot at a strong year-end and will look back to this week as another buying opportunity."

By Friday's closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.1% at 22,900, having registered its biggest intraday reversal since April only to fade into the close. The Nasdaq was down 0.5% for the week.

The broad-based S&P 500 had given back 0.05% to 6,734. The widely followed index held on for a 0.07% gain from last Friday's close. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% at 47,147, but Papa Dow was up 0.3% for the five days.

MRK is buying CDTX

Merck (MRK) was flat at $92.93. But one of the best dividend-paying health care stocks to buy boosted its future cash flow prospects with another acquisition to add to its existing portfolio as well as its drug-development pipeline.

Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX), the biotech stock Merck is buying, was up 105.4%. Cidara has an antiviral agent for the prevention of influenza infection in individuals at higher risk of flu complications in Phase 3 trials.

Merck will pay $221.50 per share for CDTX in a $9.2 billion deal that's expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. CDTX closed at $105.99 on Thursday.

“We intend to build on the Cidara team's remarkable progress and are confident that CD388 has the potential to be another important driver of growth through the next decade," Merck CEO Rob Davis said in a statement announcing the deal.

The acquisition further cushions MRK for the loss of patent exclusivity on its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda in 2028, as it follows the October announcement of a $10 billion deal to acquire Verona Pharma and its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug.

Economic data is incoming… soon

Release of much of the data on the economic calendar remains subject to delays related to the recently resolved government shutdown. But we will see the minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. And we will hear from a full set of Fed speakers throughout the week.

And the release of the final University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers results next Friday will offer "anecdotal data" on where we are in the economic cycle.

Hard data, including hiring numbers, is incoming too. As labor economist Guy Berger writes, "In some cases, collection was significantly disrupted, and there will be a permanent hole in the historical time series. In other cases, collection was either ongoing or can be 'made up' after the fact; it's a matter of compiling, processing and publishing that data."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will release September jobs data on Thursday, November 20. But, according to Berger, the first batch of timely labor market data from the BLS will be the November employment situation report in December.

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More than half of U.S. mortgage holders have rates at 4% or lower, and about 80% are below 6%, according to Realtor.com. These historically low rates have created a "lock-in effect," where millions of homeowners are staying put because moving would mean giving up a once-in-a-lifetime mortgage interest rate.

Supporters argue that portability could loosen up inventory by making it more affordable for current homeowners to move. Critics say that it may introduce significant complications and offer little benefit to renters or first-time buyers struggling with today’s prices. Here’s what to know.

How portable mortgages work

A portable mortgage lets a homeowner carry their existing mortgage, including the interest rate and remaining balance, from their current home to their next one. It functions as the reverse of an assumable mortgage. Instead of a buyer taking over the seller’s loan, the seller takes their loan to the new property.

What happens depends on the next home you buy:

• Buying a cheaper home: Your sale proceeds reduce the mortgage balance, so the existing loan fits the new property’s value.
• Buying a more expensive home: You cover the difference with cash or a new loan at the current market rate.

Although portable mortgages do not exist in the U.S., they are common in Canada and the United Kingdom. In those markets, fixed-rate periods tend to be short, typically two to five years, which makes frequent renegotiation a built-in part of the system.

Why the idea is gaining attention

Portable mortgages could alleviate the payment shock for existing owners who want to downsize or relocate for work, family or health reasons. The idea could free up some inventory by providing rate-locked owners a way to move without taking on a significantly higher monthly payment.

However, with the median U.S. home price around $410,800 and the average 30-year mortgage interest rate at 6.24%, based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Freddie Mac, affording a home remains out of reach for many.

According to Chen Zhao, head of Redfin’s economic research, “America’s housing market is defined right now by caution. Buyers are walking away from deals more often, sometimes due to affordability issues and sometimes because they’re re-evaluating whether now is the right moment to commit. Others aren’t even shopping, waiting instead for prices or mortgage rates to come down. On the other side, many sellers are staying put — either because they’re locked into low rates or unwilling to accept offers below expectations. When both sides hesitate, sales naturally fall to historic lows.”

Zhao’s comment highlights why policymakers are looking for ways to thaw the market. Even if portability helps some current homeowners relocate, the larger environment remains challenging for both buyers and sellers.

Who benefits and who is left out

The homeowners who would gain the most are those holding mortgages from the low-rate years. Homeowners with 3% to 4% mortgage interest rates are the group most likely to use portability to make a move.

Renters and first-time buyers, however, would still face today’s high rates and high prices. Younger buyers in particular would continue to face large down payments and tight supply, which portability does not address. Critics also warn that giving some buyers more purchasing power could push prices higher for everyone.

Why the U.S. system makes portability difficult

The U.S. mortgage system relies on long-term fixed-rate loans that are bundled into mortgage-backed securities, which depend on predictable refinancing patterns. If homeowners could carry a 30-year loan from house to house, refinancing would become less common, and loan volume would likely fall.

Such a shift could disrupt how mortgage-backed securities are structured and priced. That change could reduce investor demand and ultimately lead to higher borrowing costs. Countries where portability works have shorter fixed-rate periods, which makes it easier for lenders and investors to adjust when a loan moves to a new property.

Would portable mortgages improve affordability?

Portability might make a move possible for some owners, and any increase in listings from sellers could provide some additional housing supply. Even if the system could accommodate portability, the core issue remains the same. Home prices are high, and supply is very limited.

The portable mortgage concept would not create new housing, lower current interest rates or reduce down payment barriers for potential buyers. It may help a small group of existing homeowners keep their payments manageable by allowing them to avoid today’s higher rates when they move. Still, it does not change the broader affordability picture for renters, first-time buyers or anyone trying to enter the market now.

What to expect going forward

The idea is still in the evaluation stage. Key questions remain regarding how lenders, regulators and investors would manage loan transfers, how pricing gaps between old and new mortgages would be financed and how the mortgage-backed securities system would adjust. How those details are resolved will determine whether portability can be introduced without disrupting the broader market.

For now, portable mortgages remain one concept under review. They may offer another option for certain homeowners with very low rates, but their overall impact will depend on how the final structure is designed and how borrowers choose to use them.

Curious about today's mortgage interest rates? Explore and compare some of today's top offers with the tool below, powered by Bankrate:

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Grocery prices are surging everywhere, but some cities have been hit harder than others. To figure out which places are feeling the pinch the most, I analyzed the latest grocery pricing data from the Council for Community and Economic Research to identify the 10 cities where residents are paying even more than the national average at the grocery store.

I also gathered data on median incomes for each city to estimate how much of a household's income was going toward putting food on the table. And the numbers may surprise you.

How high grocery costs stack up against expert recommendations

Financial experts typically recommend that you spend no more than 10% to 15% of your take home pay on groceries. That's your after-tax income.

Almost none of the cities below met that benchmark. Using pre-tax income data, eight out of 10 cities had average monthly grocery costs that exceeded 15% of household income — meaning the share of take-home pay going toward food is even higher.

The USDA’s monthly cost of food reports outline what a balanced, nutritious diet should cost nationwide. Based on the latest USDA food plan report, a 4-person household should spend between $926.90 and $1409.40 per month, depending on how thrifty they want to be.

But in eight of the 10 cities below, the average monthly grocery bill is higher than even the USDA’s “liberal plan,” the agency’s most generous estimate for a healthy monthly food budget.

See which cities made the list and how much residents are spending to keep their kitchens stocked.

Honolulu, HI

• 33.5% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,660
• Median household income: $102,382
• Grocery spend to income: 19.46%

Living full-time in paradise will cost you. Residents of Honolulu pay 33.5% more than the national average to eat.

On average, households earn $102,382 per year and spend $19,920 of that on groceries every year. That's 19.46% of income going toward food.

Juneau, AK

• 29.4%more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,613
• Median household income: $99,748
• Grocery spend to income: 19.40%

Three Alaskan cities made the list for most expensive groceries, but Juneau's food bill was the highest of the three. Residents here pay 29.4% more than the national average. A typical household brings home $99,748 before tax and spends $19,356 of that on groceries.

That puts it just below Honolulu in terms of affordability, with grocery spend accounting for 19.40% of a household's income.

Fairbanks, AK

• 26.4% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,575
• Median household income: $86,780
• Grocery spend to income: 21.78%

Fairbanks might only have the second-most-expensive groceries in Alaska, but income here is spread thinner than it is anywhere else in the state. With a median household income of $86,780 and an average annual grocery bill of $18,900, the typical household spends 21.78% of its earnings on food.

That makes this the least affordable city for groceries in Alaska and the third least affordable city on this list – outranked only by Brooklyn, NY and Oakland, CA.

Anchorage, AK

• 25.7% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,567
• Median household income: $93,881
• Grocery spend to income: 20.02%

Alaska's capital isn't faring much better than Fairbanks. With prices here 25.7% higher than the national average, Anchorage residents spend $18,804 per year on groceries on average. That's 20.02% of the median household income of $93,881.

San Francisco, CA

• 19.1% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,485
• Median household income: $125,456
• Grocery spend to income: 14.20%

San Francisco wouldn't be most people's first thought when it comes to "affordable." Indeed, it is one of the most expensive cities to live in.

But when you compare the average grocery spend to the median income in the city by the bay, the typical household spends just 14.20% of its income to keep the fridge stocked.

Manhattan, NY

• 18% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,469
• Median household income: $101,078
• Grocery spend to income: 17.43%

Like San Francisco, it probably comes as no surprise that Manhattan would have higher food prices than the rest of the country. But also like San Francisco, a higher than average median household income helps offset that somewhat.

Though, Mahattanites aren't faring quite as well as their west coast counterparts. Here, a typical household earns $101,078 per year and spends $17,628 of that on groceries. That's 17.43% of income going toward food — not as bad as many of the other cities on this list, but noticeably higher than San Francisco.

Oakland, CA

• 14.7% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,429
• Median household income: $73,200
• Grocery spend to income: 23.43%

San Francisco might stand out for the "affordability" of groceries, but its neighbor to the east tells a different story. At 14.7% above the national average, prices are technically cheaper in Oakland than they are in San Francisco.

But, when you factor in the significantly lower median household income of $73,200, the cost to keep a household fed takes up 23.43% of that income. In terms of relative affordability, then, Oakland residents rank lowest among the cities on this list – meaning groceries are the least affordable here.

Brooklyn, NY

• 14.5% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,425
• Median household income: $76,912
• Grocery spend to income: 22.23%

Brooklyn is in a similar position as Oakland. The New York borough technically enjoys slightly lower prices on food compared to Manhattan, it's wealthier neighbor.

But, the dramatic income difference makes groceries far less affordable in Brooklyn than they are just across the East River.

San Jose, CA

• 13% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,408
• Median household income: $153,202
• Grocery spend to income: 11.03%

While San Jose, CA faces grocery prices that are 13% higher than the national average, most residents can shrug those above average prices off.

With a median household income of $153,202 and an average grocery spend of $16,896, San Joseans earn the most and spend the least on food compared to every other city on this list. Groceries take up just 11.03% of a typical household's pre-tax income.

Queens, NY

• 13% more expensive
• Average monthly grocery spend: $1,407
• Median household income: $81,399
• Grocery spend to income: 20.76%

In Queens, households pay 13% more than the national average for groceries, spending $16,884 per year to put food on the table. That's almost the same as San Jose. But, with a median household income of $81,399, residents here earn about half as much as the typical San Josean household.

That means groceries take up 20.76% of a household's budget in Queens. Their wallets might not be quite as strained as their Brooklyn neighbors, but they're definitely feeling the pinch more than the typical Manhattan household.

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As economists and investors try to weigh artificial intelligence’s role in the economy, and with stock market bubble fears on the rise, uncertainty over the fast-moving tech is running high. Taking a longer view than the day-to-day headlines, here are five forecasts to help make sense of what’s coming.

1. There will be a flurry of new AI services from leading AI firms in the next year or two to tap new revenue to cover rising costs. OpenAI, for example, recently launched an AI video social media app called Sora and a new web browser. AI companies will push harder into digital advertising and online shopping, both promising markets for their web search and AI chatbots.

2. Though free options are here to stay, AI price hikes are coming. Top tiers of service, which provide the highest-quality AI responses and much more usage, will see higher prices. Consumers and businesses will have to pay more for AI tools from Microsoft, OpenAI, Alphabet, Anthropic and others. Generative AI is being integrated into most software, from photo editing to sales tools, and prices are sure to rise.

3. AI companies will push harder to tap potentially lucrative new markets, such as education, government, medicine, energy, defense and finance. Education seems ripe for making a lot more revenue in the near term, as both colleges and K-12 schools adopt AI tech. However, note that there’s a lot of pressure to show that the tech pays off, such as by finding clear evidence that AI makes accurate medical diagnoses.

4. Market volatility is likely with bubble fears rising. Remember DeepSeek? Earlier this year, the Chinese AI company sparked a major sell-off of AI tech stocks, plus other stocks in the AI sphere. Some investors thought a new breakthrough meant AI companies wouldn’t need as many chips. That wasn’t true, but expect more DeepSeek moments, stemming from concerns related to tech advances or spending slowdowns that could crimp sales of chips and other hardware needed to support AI services.

5. Shortages of chips, energy, labor and more will slow down AI projects. The continuing shortages mean it’s very likely that some plans for data centers are delayed, as major players rush to find all the needed supplies, ranging from computer memory and storage to HVAC systems and electrical equipment. Meanwhile, there’s growing local opposition to building data centers, which is poised to get more intense. For those who fear that AI spending and development is unsustainable, these headwinds may provide some reassurance that the breakneck spending on data centers will slow down to a more sustainable pace.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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